Healthway Med   

healthway, healthy?

for fun, complete this sentence for Healthway.

range tighter than a ...

[vested since the heady days...sigh]

 

http://www.nextinsight.biz/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/903-2010-/2971-raffles-medical-thomson-parkway-healthway-what-stanchart-says-about-them

 

Excerpts from Standard Chartered Equity Research's 120-page report published this morning on the Singapore healthcare sector


Analysts: Stephen Hui, Magnus Gunn, Pauline Lee


In this note, we provide an analysis of the growth drivers for healthcare spending that goes beyond traditional demographics. Based on our conclusions from this analysis, we have a high degree of confidence in the ability of certain business models to sustain future earnings growth, which should translate into continued long-term alpha for appropriately positioned investors.

Our analysis shows the overall market for private tertiary healthcare spending in Singapore growing at a 7% CAGR until 2020E: The drivers are: (1) population growth of 2%, (2) impact from an aging population of 1.4% and (3) a shift towards private healthcare at 0.4%. We anticipate the biggest driver will come from a fourth factor: demand for ever more specialist services and care (‘revenue intensity per patient’), which we expect to persist at 3% until 2020.

Our 7% estimate for tertiary healthcare spending refers to the overall market and we estimate that certain players, such as Raffles, will sustain far higher growth rates.

Source: Standard Chartered, Sept 16.

We believe direct competition will remain limited due to strong market segmentation, especially for two of the three private hospital operators: Raffles Medical (Raffles), which is the leader in the corporate segment and Thomson Medical (Thomson), which specialises in women and children. For Parkway Holdings (Parkway), the dominant provider in the high-end patient market, we believe the completion of the Farrer Park Hospital in 2012/2013 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting              2012/2013      end_of_the_skype_highlighting will signal increased competition ahead, although we do not anticipate a significant impact.

We expect the growth in the foreign patient market will return as the global economy recovers, providing an additional growth driver. The key read across from our visits to three listed ASEAN hospital operators is that there is limited direct competition with Singapore as they largely target different source countries. For the Indonesian market, Singapore has a durable competitive advantage due to proximity and established relationships.

Recommendations: We have OUTPERFORM ratings on Raffles and Thomson and IN-LINE ratings on Parkway and Healthway. In our view, Raffles has the most robust and defensive business model and has operating leverage through expansion of its specialist services. We like Thomson’s specialty leadership in birth deliveries and its attractive valuations. We downgrade Parkway from OUTPERFORM to IN-LINE to reflect the stock’s current high valuations. Healthway is expanding aggressively and has strong potential, in our view, but given recent staffing issues we will await further execution before taking a more positive view.

Our approach to valuation is twofold. First, we use a DCF to capture what, in our opinion, is a fairly predictable stream of long-term cash flows. We recognize, however, that the stock market will not build in the full value potential of these businesses (though an industry buyer often will) and investors will still rely heavily on short-term earnings multiples in setting the price. Second, we set our 12-month fair value with reference to peak earnings multiples from the prior cycle, given our bullish views on these companies and in the belief that their long-term earnings potential is becoming better understood by the market.

* Our fair value of S$2.5 for Raffles offers potential upside of 17%. The stock is trading on 21x 2011E and our fair value is based on a PER target multiple of 25x 2011E. Raffles’ previous peak valuation was in January 2008 at a forward PER of 25x. Our DCF valuation results in a fair value closer to S$2.8. We like Raffles for its robust and defensive business model and its operating leverage through the expansion of its specialist services. In 2009, Raffles’ hospital business (hospital and specialist services) posted an operating margin of 26% compared with 8% for its primary services. As the group continues to expand its specialist services, we expect continued margin expansion.

* Our fair value of S$1.1 for Thomson offers potential upside of 24%. Thomson is currently trading on PER 15x 2011E and our fair is based on a target multiple of PER 19x 2011E. Thomson’s previous peak valuation was in June 2007 at PER 20x 12-month forward earnings. We like Thomson’s leadership in birth deliveries and its long-established brand name.

Thomson hospital is running at near full occupancy and this may present concerns on its future growth profile. But, our analysis shows that Thomson should still have room to grow.Together with its attractive valuations, we believe there is significant upside to its share price.

* Our IN-LINE rating for Parkway is based on valuations. Our fair value of S$4 translates to PER target multiple of 29x 2011E. The stock is currently trading on 27x PER 2011E on our core earnings estimate which strips out the gain from sales of the company’s Novena medicalsuites. In July 2007, the stock had traded at PER 40x 12-month forward earnings. Our target multiple is at a discount to peak valuations as our DCF shows fair value of S$4.34, offering only 13% upside (in contrast, Raffles’ DCF fair value offers over 30% potential upside). In our view, Parkway is the pre-eminent healthcare franchise in Asia due to its dominant position in Singapore and wide geographical reach. We believe the upcoming Parkway Novena hospital will strengthen the group’s position in its home market but uncertainties remain as to the hospital’s operating performance.

* Our IN-LINE rating for Healthway stems from our “wait and see” approach. We believe Healthway has tremendous potential through its aggressive expansion of its services in Singapore and China. But in 1H 2010, its profit fell by 82% and management has advised this was due to the departure of key specialists and the costs associated with new clinics. In our view, the situation for Healthway is rather binary. If its new clinics succeed in building up a customer base, the share price would have significant upside. If it does not execute, its share price has significant downside potential as the stock is now trading at PER of 30x 2011E, which we believe already factors in a sharp bounce in profit.

The investment case for healthcare in Singapore is exceptionally robust, in our opinion.

 

Thursday: 16 SEPTEMBER 2010  CLOSING

Genting HK US$	S21	i	--	USD	0.515		+0.010	+2.0	236,866,000	5,520,000	0.515	0.520	4,346,000	0.515	0.505	0.530	0.495	M	--	SGX	S21	GENH.SI	--	--	--
Genting SP	G13	i	--	SGD	2.030		+0.060	+3.1	178,510,000	1,475,000	2.020	2.030	217,000	2.000	1.970	2.040	1.980	M	--	SGX	G13	GENS.SI	--	--	--
Transcu	E15	i	--	SGD	0.120		+0.005	+4.4	116,029,000	19,800,000	0.120	0.125	6,325,000	0.120	0.115	0.130	0.115	C	--	SGX	E15	TRSU.SI	--	--	--
UniFiber	P30	i	--	SGD	0.060		0.000	0.0	73,874,000	49,238,000	0.055	0.060	25,334,000	0.060	0.060	0.065	0.055	C,M	--	SGX	P30	UFSL.SI	--	--	--
UtdEnvirotech	U19	i	--	SGD	0.490		0.000	0.0	71,226,000	3,177,000	0.485	0.490	404,000	0.490	0.490	0.510	0.480	C,M	--	SGX	U19	UNIT.SI	--	--	--
Healthway	5NG	i	--	SGD	0.175		+0.005	+2.9	48,354,000	20,526,000	0.170	0.175	2,075,000	0.175	0.170	0.180	0.170	M

pharoah88      ( Date: 16-Sep-2010 13:50) Posted: Thu: 16 SEP 2010 sOme bOdy  majOr  dOes  nOt want  the prIce  tO  rIse  yEt 11:57:01 0.175 1,000,000 Sold To Buyer 10:54:55 0.175 1,005,000 Sold To Buyer 09:56:42 0.175 1,500,000 Bought From Seller 09:48:41 0.175 3,050,000 Sold To Buyer 09:48:40 0.175 2,250,000 Sold To Buyer 09:22:42 0.175 2,188,000 Bought From Seller 09:22:42 0.175 100,000 Bought From Seller 09:22:41 0.175 1,600,000 Bought From Seller 09:22:41 0.175 1,800,000 Bought From Seller 09:22:40 0.175 2,115,000 Bought From Seller 09:22:39 0.175 4,885,000 Bought From Seller

 

Making money since 06, avg 9mil. But 1H 10 seeing merely 1.48mil on d back due to d absence of flu pandemic lower patient load for new specialists.

However, AK opines that as health is a  concern down here when pop getting older n older. Hence, health related industries still got potential, in d long run.

yummygd      ( Date: 16-Sep-2010 16:44) Posted: cause someone wanna fool retail players into selling lor....smart hor like informatics....hmmm wonder who lor....its coming.

 

cause someone wanna fool retail players into selling lor....smart hor like informatics....hmmm wonder who lor....its coming.

 

AI LAI CHIONGGGGG LIOWWWW ARHHHH!!!!!

SELLERS DRYING UP LIOW... HEAVY BUY UP LIOW....

 

Thu: 16 SEP 2010

sOme bOdy  majOr  dOes  nOt want  the prIce  tO  rIse  yEt

11:57:01

0.175

1,000,000

Sold To Buyer

10:54:55

0.175

1,005,000

Sold To Buyer

09:56:42

0.175

1,500,000

Bought From Seller

09:48:41	0.175	3,050,000	Sold To Buyer
09:48:40	0.175	2,250,000	Sold To Buyer

09:22:42	0.175	2,188,000	Bought From Seller
09:22:42	0.175	100,000	Bought From Seller
09:22:41	0.175	1,600,000	Bought From Seller
09:22:41	0.175	1,800,000	Bought From Seller
09:22:40	0.175	2,115,000	Bought From Seller
09:22:39	0.175	4,885,000	Bought From Seller

 

AI LAI CHIONGGGGG LIOWWWW ARHHHH!!!!!

ONCE THE SELLERS DRIED UP...

 

Businesses that rely on young clientele hurt by HFMD outbreak

Businesses that rely on young clientele hurt by HFMD outbreak

 

Research on moose suggests that arthritis in humans may be related to early nutritional deficiencies.

Clues to Arthritis in Underfed Moose

By PAM BELLUCK

Poor nutrition early in life led to arthritis in more than 50 percent of the moose studied in one region of the northern United States, research over the past 50 years has shown. Collecting bones of more than 4,000 moose, researchers discovered that out of 1,200 carcasses they analyzed, more than half had arthritis, virtually identical to the human kind.

That could mean, scientists say, that some people’s arthritis can also be linked in part to nutritional deficits, in the womb and possibly throughout childhood.

The moose conclusion bolsters a growing body of research connecting early development to chronic conditions like osteoarthritis, which currently affects 27 million Americans, up from 21 million in 1990.

Osteoarthritis’ exact cause remains unknown, but it is generally thought to stem from aging and wear and tear on joints, exacerbated for some by genes. Overweight or obese people have greater arthritis risk, usually attributed to the load their joints carry, and the number of cases is increasing as people live longer and weigh more.

But studies of moose on Isle Royale in Lake Superior, along with human research, suggests arthritis’ origins are more complex, probably influenced by early exposure to nutrients and other factors while our bodies are developing. Even obesity’s link to arthritis probably goes beyond extra weight, experts say, to include eating the wrong things.

Nutrients, experts say, might influence the composition or shape of bones, joints or cartilage. Nutrition might also affect hormones, the likelihood of later inflammation or oxidative stress, even how a genetic predisposition for arthritis is expressed or suppressed.

“Osteoarthritis starts way before the person knows it, way before their knee hurts or their hand hurts,” said Dr. Joanne Jordan, director of the Thurston Arthritis Research Center at the University of North Carolina. “It’s very clear that we’re going to have to start looking back” at “things in the early life course.”

Such research could lead to nutritional steps people can take to protect against osteoarthritis, a condition that is often painful or debilitating, and according to federal data, costs billions of dollars annually in knee and hip replacements alone.

“It would be helpful to know if we want to make sure pregnant moms are taking certain vitamins or if you need to supplement with such and such nutrition,” said Dr. David Felson, an arthritis expert at Boston University School of Medicine.

“The moose guy is right in that we probably should study weight or some other nutritional factor almost through adolescence when the bones or joints have stopped forming.”

The “moose guy” is Rolf Peterson, a Michigan Technological University scientist on the Isle Royale project, which began in 1958. For half the year, Dr. Peterson and his colleagues are the only humans allowed on the 72-kilometer-long island, part of a national park. The arthritic moose were often small, measured by the length of the metatarsal bone in the foot. Small metatarsals indicate poor early nutrition, and scientists determined that the arthritic moose were born during times when food was scarce, so their mothers could not produce enough milk.

Dr. Peterson said if the arthritis were caused by excess wear and tear on the moose’s joints, that would have meant that times of food scarcity occurred when the moose were already grown, since the extra wear would have happened to moose walking farther to find edible plants. But the arthritic moose had had plentiful food as adults.

Studying nutrition in people is much more complicated than in moose. Dr. Peterson said the early moosehood developmental window occurred in utero through 28 months, but humans’ developmental time frame lasted into the teens. Some experts say prenatal nutrition is most critical; others see roles for nutrients after birth and beyond.

“Up until the growth plates close, which is through adolescence and even early adulthood, the effects of nutrition are magnified,” said Dr. Constance R. Chu, director of the Cartilage Restoration Center at the University of Pittsburgh, who said nutrients might affect the number of healthy cells in cartilage and its thickness.

“But in my opinion, it’s relevant throughout life,” she added.

Nutrients may affect the makeup of bones and cartilage.

 

noted with thanks. :-)

iPunter      ( Date: 25-Aug-2010 07:59) Posted: All the healthcare counters were pulled up by the recent Parkway bidding saga...        Now that the race is apparently over,              it would be normal for prices to get back to the pre-bidding war normality... hawke009      ( Date: 18-Aug-2010 15:18) Posted: seem like falling sick... share price sliding.

 

All the healthcare counters were pulled up by the recent Parkway bidding saga...

       Now that the race is apparently over,

             it would be normal for prices to get back to the pre-bidding war normality...

hawke009      ( Date: 18-Aug-2010 15:18) Posted: seem like falling sick... share price sliding.

 

Agree, potential is definitely there

dealer0168      ( Date: 24-Aug-2010 23:08) Posted: Healthway, a possible Raffle medical in making.............. If vested in this one, needs to look long.

 

Healthway, a possible Raffle medical in making..............

If vested in this one, needs to look long.

 

Stock Calls

Healthway Medical

Buy | 17.5 cents

DMG cuts the target price to 23 cents from 30 cents after slashing the FY10 earnings estimate to $4.7 million from $16 million to reflect weak 2Q10 results and higher-than-expected start-up costs.

But it keeps the Buy call, saying “revenue is expected to pick up strongly in FY11, with full-year contribution from its new medical centres in China”.

 

seem like falling sick... share price sliding.

 

Healthway Medical to expand in China

SINGAPORE

The group also intends to introduce its medical services to other major cities in China.

Healthway Medical said it will be investing 38 million yuan ($7.6 million) to operate and manage medical facilities in Shanghai and Hangzhou.

Meanwhile, the group reported that its second quarter net profit declined 97 per cent to $121,000 from $4.3 million a year.

This is on the back of lower revenue compared to last year.

Last year, Singapore saw the height of the H1N1 epidemic, which had boosted Healthway Medical’s bottomline.

Group revenue for the three-month period ended June dipped 12.3 per cent to $21.4 million from $24.5 million in the same period last year.

Its income was further impacted by expected lower patient load for its new centres in Singapore.

“While many new centres and specialists are in the ramping-up phase, which has resulted in lower earnings, they are now showing month-on-month improvement,” said the company’s managing director, Dr Wong Weng Hong.

Going forward, Healthway Medical said it is fully focused on growing its revenues and managing costs.

Healthway’s shares dipped 0.5 cents to close at 18 cents on Friday.

— Catalist-listed Healthway Medical Corporation is setting its sights to expand in China as it plans to open more than 20 medical clinics in Shanghai.Julie Quek

 

ANTIBIOTICS USEFULNESS IS FINITE

So the game now is to keep bacteria at bay. Hygiene is an obvious weapon. Better cleaning, hand gels and stern warnings to staff and public alike have helped reduce infection rates in hospitals. But Professor Richard James, director of the centre for health care infections at the University of Nottingham, warns that bugs don’t stay in hospitals (the NDM 1— producing bacteria appears widespread in India, passed through contaminated water, in which people bathe, wash clothes and defecate).

“The worry is once these organisms are out in the community,” says James.

“There probably is some need for public education about infection and, for instance, kitchen hygiene when you are cooking. People of my generation were taught a lot about washing your hands before every meal. It was automatic that it was done. A lot of that has gone.”

Beyond that, there is a real need to conserve those antibiotics we have.

Like oil, he points out, antibiotic usefulness is finite. And the cost of drug resistance is not reflected in the price of the drug. “If you consider antibiotic sensitivity as a resource like oil, you want to maintain that by introducing a tax,” he says. It would be worldwide and the proceeds could fund new drug development.

But should you tax life-saving drugs, especially in poor countries?

“If you don’t do anything, there won’t be any antibiotics anyway,” says James starkly. “At least it is a suggestion of something that could be done.”

Walsh’s paper shows that no country can pull up the drawbridge. “It illustrates the importance of considering health issues as a world issue — how antibiotics are prescribed and controlled in one part of the world can very rapidly have consequences elsewhere,” says Christopher Thomas, professor of molecular genetics at the University of Birmingham.

Sadly, the fact is that many people have still got their heads in the sand.

In the battle for survival of the fittest between human beings and bacteria, it looks as though the best we are going to get is a draw — if we are lucky.

The Guardian

Sarah Boseley is the health editor of The Guardian. She has won a number of awards for her work on HIV/Aids in Africa, including the One World Media Award and the European section of the Lorenzo Natali prize, awarded by the European Commission.

 

NOT OVER YET BUT ...

But it is not just an issue in advanced medicine.

Antibiotics are vital to abdominal surgery.

“You safeguard the patient from bacteria leaking into the body cavity,” he says. If you lose the ability to treat these infections, appendix operations would carry the same risk as they did before Fleming discovered penicillin in 1928.

It may not be over yet, he says, but “we are certainly scraping the bottom of the barrel to find antibiotics that are effective against some of the infections.”

Running out is not the only issue, he says. When somebody has a severe infection — say blood poisoning — causing a high fever, a hospital clinician will dispatch blood samples to the lab to find out exactly what he is dealing with. But that takes time. “He will start you on antibiotics because that will kill infection within 48 hours,” says Livermore. “So during 48 hours, you are being treated blind.

The more resistant your bacteria are, the less likely the antibiotic is going to work.”

Studies have shown, he says, that the chances of dying from hospital pneumonia or septicaemia (blood poisoning) are twice as high if the bacteria are drugresistant, rising in the case of pneumonia from 20 to 30 per cent to 40 to 60 per cent.

For a long time now, doctors have known they were in a race to stay a few steps ahead of the rapidly growing resistance of bacterial infections to antibiotics.

Ten years ago, the so-called superbug MRSA caused front-page panic.

Hospital patients were picking up Staphylococcus aureus infections that were resistant to the hitherto powerful antibiotic methicillin. An all-out war against MRSA has reduced the threat of what are known as Gram-positive bacteria. Hospital hygiene has been massively stepped up and, in response in part to public anxiety, pharmaceutical companies have put money into finding new antibiotics for these infections.

But it’s like putting a finger in a hole in the dam, only to find the water surges out somewhere else. Bacteria are great survivors. The biggest threat now, experts believe, is from multi-drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria, such as NDM1- producing enterobacteriaceae and an enzyme called KPC which has spread in the US (and in Israel and Greece) which also gives bacteria resistance to the most powerful group of antibiotics we (once) had.

“It is a war of attrition. It is naive to think we can win.” says Livermore.