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China Minzhong Food forum

The receivables had ballooned from RM132 million to RMB1.6 billion, about 10x QoQ. This receivables formed more than 50% of sales and 90 days aging is also high at 84%. CMZ had assured that the customers involved are long term and would not default. The front line is impressive but look deeper, the above is cause for concern.  The kiasi in me will want to observe a bit more this counter before investing.

 

Agreeed result is good. However, it run before result came out. This counter 见 好 就 收 (do you know chinese?). I am waiting for the right time to enter again. Cheers! Have a great weekend !

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 17-May-2013 23:59) Posted: I thought the earning report was good, could it be the author expectation was too high?

 

I thought the earning report was good, could it be the author expectation was too high?

 

My sharing:

China Minzhong Food - Hanging on for dividends
Author: StockFanatic | Publish date: Fri, 17 May 15:28 |


Earnings disappointed in Minzhong's traditionally strongest quarter as the processed segment faces weak demand. The tie-up with Indofood looks timely as it could pick up the slack. We avoid a downgrade only because of the strong possibility of dividends.

3Q was below expectations, forming 31% of our full-year estimate and 32% of consensus. 9M13 came in at just 72%. We cut our FY13-15 estimates by 11%, which lowers our target price, still based on 4x CY14 P/E (sector average). We keep our Outperform call only because dividends are likely to catalyse the stock.

 

I had sold all at 1.10. After I sold it came down n now cheong again . I believe is due to good sentiment . Good luck to those who still hold to it! Cheers!

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 15-May-2013 19:52) Posted: Surprise that it was going strong to close at $1.07 today. If it could clear $1.08 tomorrow, that will be a turning point to go uptrend and  next target will be  the last high of $1.12

 

Oh, turn head before 1 woh. Wahahaha!!!!!

 

Surprise that it was going strong to close at $1.07 today. If it could clear $1.08 tomorrow, that will be a turning point to go uptrend and  next target will be  the last high of $1.12

 

My view is that  if it started to turn up from near $1 level  is  a good entry point, as long as the low is getting higher than the previous low, it means going  uptrend.

 

I will not long even if it break $1. This is a psychological mark and breaking it will bring out the shortists from the woodwork. Will let the shortists finish their work first before deciding on the next step. So, when will the shortists stop their selling attack? When i see lower volume and divergence between the price and the oscillators.

Of course, If you are the kiasi kiasu type, no harm buying at $1 so you would not miss out on the rebound. But limit your exposure with a small order.

 

Once it breaks $1, I will long again.

 

Stock don't go in a straight line as long as it is moving in the uptrend channel, it is fine. Now  it is near the lower channel of long term uptrend channel but at the mid point of short term downtrend channel.  Support and resistance will be at $0.985 & $1.08.

 

If you invest for long term, you should see it to reach intrinsic value in a few months time.

 

I was damn pek cek about today's performance. Just did a simple calculation using my intrinsic value calculator.

Using the discounted EPS model, (growth rate of 5% and current EPS of $0.24) its intrinsic value is $2.4!! 

Using the discounted cash flow model, (SGD$80 million [average of FY2011 and FY2012 results]    and growth rate of 5%) its intrinsic value is $1.35!!

  Take note, I am using very very conservative estimates of EPS and cash flow.  

 

If this round you have missed it.....dont worry.. you have chance to pick it up at a lower price..let's see tomorrow's performance.....
Cheers happy trading!

 

Thank you!

acjyyy      ( Date: 13-May-2013 20:19) Posted: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/13/fed-looks-to-qe-exit-investors-react/ Yo sifu, take a look at this GorgeousOng      ( Date: 13-May-2013 20:11) Posted: When did ah Ben say that? Am I missing something from his speech?

 

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/13/fed-looks-to-qe-exit-investors-react/

Yo sifu, take a look at this

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 13-May-2013 20:11) Posted: When did ah Ben say that? Am I missing something from his speech? acjyyy      ( Date: 13-May-2013 18:50) Posted: I think partly cos of ah ben say planning to stop QE

 

When did ah Ben say that? Am I missing something from his speech?

acjyyy      ( Date: 13-May-2013 18:50) Posted: I think partly cos of ah ben say planning to stop QE

 

Think that most of the short term players brought for good result has already sold today, should see a good support at this level ($1.025 - $1) So if you discount away the last 3 days of trading, it will be like going up from $0.985 to $1.025 after the result is out.

 

 

I think partly cos of ah ben say planning to stop QE

 

Results so good yet price drop so much. Very er xin. Put a stop loss or tmr. If hit then wait to collect at lower price

 

3 yrs after listing, CMZ should start to consider spinnning off its processed food div for separate listing in SSE, to unlock shareholder value. Info food, with 30% share now, is likely to press the button during the AGM in 3 mo time