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9301-9320 of 10484
Frankly, imo, I m unfazed by this dips as it presents a good buy opportunity.
Look at it in perspective, it is down bcos of the general mkt is down, nothing wrong with this counter, the wise will be buying.
risktaker ( Date: 17-Aug-2009 10:12) Posted:
| On sale NOW -- Kin buy bo... later cheong u cry |
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On sale NOW -- Kin buy bo... later cheong u cry
From OCBC
Mon, 17 Aug 2009, 08:53:19
Market Pulse: Midas, Wilmar, Golden Agri, Tat Hong, PAH, Foreland,
Hotel Grand, KS Energy, Rickmers & Z-OBEE (17 Aug 2009)
FOCUS
Midas Holdings Ltd: Buttressed valuations. Maintain BUY. fair value is S$1.05
Summary: Midas Holdings (Midas) posted 2Q09 revenue of S$37.8m
(-2% YoY, +20% QoQ) and bottomline of S$9.4m (+10% YoY, +11% QoQ).
Maximum utilisation and current favourable cost-plus contracts aided its performance.
Midas will be building three downstream fabrication lines for a total of ~S$45m that will
be able to process 1000 train cars/year. The three lines are part of Midas’ strategy to
cement its dominance and sustain margins in the domestic railway industry as it transforms
into one-stop shop for aluminium train profiles and components.
The company’s RMB1.4b order book will likely be filled more when the PRC government
awards its 2nd phase of train contracts for 4000+ train cars.
Today, Midas’ firm order book and more anticipated contract wins in Sep-Nov 09 for both
NPRT and itself will serve to under-gird valuations.
We have pegged Midas at 20x (prev. 18x) FY10F PER and our fair value is S$1.05
(prev. S$0.93).
Maintain BUY. (Kelly Chia)
yipyip ( Date: 17-Aug-2009 09:18) Posted:
From OCBC
Mon, 17 Aug 2009, 08:53:19
Market Pulse: Midas, Wilmar, Golden Agri, Tat Hong, PAH, Foreland,
Hotel Grand, KS Energy, Rickmers & Z-OBEE (17 Aug 2009)
FOCUS
Midas Holdings Ltd: Buttressed valuations. Maintain BUY. fair value is S$1.05
Summary: Midas Holdings (Midas) posted 2Q09 revenue of S$37.8m
(-2% YoY, +20% QoQ) and bottomline of S$9.4m (+10% YoY, +11% QoQ).
Maximum utilisation and current favourable cost-plus contracts
aided its performance. Midas will be building three downstream
fabrication lines for a total of ~S$45m that will be able to
process 1000 train cars/year. The three lines are part of
Midas’ strategy to cement its dominance and sustain margins in
the domestic railway industry as it transforms into one-stop shop
for aluminium train profiles and components. The company’s RMB1.4b
order book will likely be filled more when the PRC government awards
its 2nd phase of train contracts for 4000+ train cars. Today,
Midas’ firm order book and more anticipated contract wins in Sep-Nov 09
for both NPRT and itself will serve to under-gird valuations. We have
pegged Midas at 20x (prev. 18x) FY10F PER and our fair value is S$1.05
(prev. S$0.93). Maintain BUY. (Kelly Chia)
Wilmar: 2Q09 results mostly in line
Summary: Wilmar reported its 2Q09 results last Friday; revenue was
down 27.0% YoY at US$5,712.3m, but net profit rose 22.7% to US$407.2m.
On a sequential basis, revenue rose 15.2%, which was 9.9% ahead of
our estimate, while earnings rose 7.2%, about 0.5% below our forecast.
For the half year, revenue fell 28.7% to US$10,670.4m, meeting 42.0%
of our FY09 estimate, while net profit gained 16.6% to US$787.1m, or
nearly 60.8% of our full-year number. Management remains upbeat about
its 2H09 prospects. We are raising our FY09 and FY10 earnings estimates
by 18.9% and 14.4%, respectively, to reflect its better profitability.
This in turn improves our fair value from S$5.78 to S$7.28, still based
on 20x blended FY09/FY10 PER. Maintain BUY. (Carey Wong)
Golden Agri-Resources Ltd: Maintain HOLD
Summary: Golden Agri Resources (GAR) released its 2Q09 results on
Friday; revenue was down 30.7% YoY but rebounded 37.2% QoQ to US$565.6m;
net profit tumbled 64.7% YoY but was up nearly 543.0% QoQ to US$55.1m.
Operationally, it appears that the worst of the previous tree stress
(due to the drought in 2006) has passed; management is hopeful of seeing
better production numbers in 2H09. And while there may be a possible El
Nino effect this year, management believes that the impact will probably
be felt some 12 months later. We have also raised our CPO assumptions
for this year from US$600/ton to US$620/ton, and this in turn bumps up
our FY09 revenue forecast by 6.8%; but only raised our net profit estimate
by 4.2% as GAR will still need to work through the excess fertilizer that
it had bought at a much higher price late last year. Using a higher 12x
blended FY09/FY10 EPS valuation (vs. 10x previously), our fair value will
rise from S$0.35 to S$0.45. Given the limited upside, we maintain our
HOLD rating. (Carey Wong)
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From OCBC
Mon, 17 Aug 2009, 08:53:19
Market Pulse: Midas, Wilmar, Golden Agri, Tat Hong, PAH, Foreland,
Hotel Grand, KS Energy, Rickmers & Z-OBEE (17 Aug 2009)
FOCUS
Midas Holdings Ltd: Buttressed valuations. Maintain BUY. fair value is S$1.05
Summary: Midas Holdings (Midas) posted 2Q09 revenue of S$37.8m
(-2% YoY, +20% QoQ) and bottomline of S$9.4m (+10% YoY, +11% QoQ).
Maximum utilisation and current favourable cost-plus contracts
aided its performance. Midas will be building three downstream
fabrication lines for a total of ~S$45m that will be able to
process 1000 train cars/year. The three lines are part of
Midas’ strategy to cement its dominance and sustain margins in
the domestic railway industry as it transforms into one-stop shop
for aluminium train profiles and components. The company’s RMB1.4b
order book will likely be filled more when the PRC government awards
its 2nd phase of train contracts for 4000+ train cars. Today,
Midas’ firm order book and more anticipated contract wins in Sep-Nov 09
for both NPRT and itself will serve to under-gird valuations. We have
pegged Midas at 20x (prev. 18x) FY10F PER and our fair value is S$1.05
(prev. S$0.93). Maintain BUY. (Kelly Chia)
Wilmar: 2Q09 results mostly in line
Summary: Wilmar reported its 2Q09 results last Friday; revenue was
down 27.0% YoY at US$5,712.3m, but net profit rose 22.7% to US$407.2m.
On a sequential basis, revenue rose 15.2%, which was 9.9% ahead of
our estimate, while earnings rose 7.2%, about 0.5% below our forecast.
For the half year, revenue fell 28.7% to US$10,670.4m, meeting 42.0%
of our FY09 estimate, while net profit gained 16.6% to US$787.1m, or
nearly 60.8% of our full-year number. Management remains upbeat about
its 2H09 prospects. We are raising our FY09 and FY10 earnings estimates
by 18.9% and 14.4%, respectively, to reflect its better profitability.
This in turn improves our fair value from S$5.78 to S$7.28, still based
on 20x blended FY09/FY10 PER. Maintain BUY. (Carey Wong)
Golden Agri-Resources Ltd: Maintain HOLD
Summary: Golden Agri Resources (GAR) released its 2Q09 results on
Friday; revenue was down 30.7% YoY but rebounded 37.2% QoQ to US$565.6m;
net profit tumbled 64.7% YoY but was up nearly 543.0% QoQ to US$55.1m.
Operationally, it appears that the worst of the previous tree stress
(due to the drought in 2006) has passed; management is hopeful of seeing
better production numbers in 2H09. And while there may be a possible El
Nino effect this year, management believes that the impact will probably
be felt some 12 months later. We have also raised our CPO assumptions
for this year from US$600/ton to US$620/ton, and this in turn bumps up
our FY09 revenue forecast by 6.8%; but only raised our net profit estimate
by 4.2% as GAR will still need to work through the excess fertilizer that
it had bought at a much higher price late last year. Using a higher 12x
blended FY09/FY10 EPS valuation (vs. 10x previously), our fair value will
rise from S$0.35 to S$0.45. Given the limited upside, we maintain our
HOLD rating. (Carey Wong)
Hi raymondho,
U r most welcome, but always remember not to follow anyone's post blindly.
Remember, dyodd n BOSAYOR as it is fair tat we can't blame the poster for our losses (we take responsibilty for our own actions) as likewise we dun share our winnings with the poster, right.
raymondho ( Date: 17-Aug-2009 00:36) Posted:
Thanks, Richtan
Take note of your points. As I have been losing so much in the past, this time I must equip myself and learn from all of you who have in-depth knowledge and experience, hope to recover some losing $$ and look forward to turn a bit rich... ha ha. I used to follow your post and Bintang's. Of course some more seniors'. |
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Thanks, Richtan
Take note of your points. As I have been losing so much in the past, this time I must equip myself and learn from all of you who have in-depth knowledge and experience, hope to recover some losing $$ and look forward to turn a bit rich... ha ha. I used to follow your post and Bintang's. Of course some more seniors'.
Hi Bintang,
U r most welcome.
We are here to built cameraderie n learn n alert each other, tats is the right mindset to adopt
Bintang ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 18:48) Posted:
| Hi richtan , star-trader n raymondho , thanks for all your valuable comments , as we are in this risky trading market , to warn n giving advice to each others are neccessary , hoping for the best n preparing for the worst , n last but not least is setting stop-loss protection is a' must ' . Thank u all gentlemen . |
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Hi raymondho,
I had aredi shared with u my views on those indicators as lagging which I dun pay much attention but more as secondary indicators to lend credence and more firm support to my leading indicators if it too agrees with the leading indicators.
I learnt from some TA books tat emas are better than sma, thus where I chose 3 emas, one short-term (15ema), one mid-term (25ema) and last one, long-term (65ema).
The candles must be read in combination with the vol (daily and weekly), see my annotations in my chart analysis.
raymondho ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 22:10) Posted:
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Thanks, Richtan,
Finally manage to post it up.
I do agree Midas FA is very strong with order book full up to 2010. But from the chart it shows short term downtrend even their qtr result is out, but less strenght. I doubt Monday's opening will show up.
May I have your view on my interpretating of chart? Vested
raymondho ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 22:05) Posted:
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I too hope tomoro, Midas shows up n plse her fans but at the same time gentle reminder not to get emotional and not let go our guard and set our stop-losses, as nothing is guaranteed
raymondho ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 22:28) Posted:
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Hi! Richtan and Risktaker, Thank you for both your posting.
Understand, now I am with better mood to see thing. Agree with you Richtan, that why I always feel confuss why the price movement shows reversed direction with those indicators. Learn a lot from you.
Once again, Thank you.
Hope tomolo Midas shows up and pleases all her fans.
risktaker ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 19:48) Posted:
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Richtan dont worry about those unwanted noise :) Sometimes people see things differently. I agree with you that those are lagging indicators. I have a strong feeling tomorrow people will be chasing midas. lol.
Midas $0.80 will be none existance after tomorrow .
Huat Ah :) $1.28 here we come.
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Hi raymondho.
U r most welcome.
I too hope to learn from u and all fellow forumers, tats why I m always open-minded n receptive to others views.
Learning is a lifelong process.
Todays' National Day rally reminds us to "Live and let live", we all have differing views, we discuss and exchange views without the need to flame each other nor rate each other as bad, share a common space here.
I graciously extend my hand to those tat does not see eyes to eyes with me to let past grudges, if any, be waters under the bridge, be magnanamous, let go hatred, lets be constructive and harmonious, reply and share your disagreements, I too hope to learn from u.
raymondho ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 22:28) Posted:
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Hi! Richtan and Risktaker, Thank you for both your posting.
Understand, now I am with better mood to see thing. Agree with you Richtan, that why I always feel confuss why the price movement shows reversed direction with those indicators. Learn a lot from you.
Once again, Thank you.
Hope tomolo Midas shows up and pleases all her fans.
risktaker ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 19:48) Posted:
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Richtan dont worry about those unwanted noise :) Sometimes people see things differently. I agree with you that those are lagging indicators. I have a strong feeling tomorrow people will be chasing midas. lol.
Midas $0.80 will be none existance after tomorrow .
Huat Ah :) $1.28 here we come.
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There are things i cant share/reveal as it will make the game difficult for us. But lets see how people play catch up tomorrow.
raymondho ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 22:28) Posted:
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Hi! Richtan and Risktaker, Thank you for both your posting.
Understand, now I am with better mood to see thing. Agree with you Richtan, that why I always feel confuss why the price movement shows reversed direction with those indicators. Learn a lot from you.
Once again, Thank you.
Hope tomolo Midas shows up and pleases all her fans.
risktaker ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 19:48) Posted:
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Richtan dont worry about those unwanted noise :) Sometimes people see things differently. I agree with you that those are lagging indicators. I have a strong feeling tomorrow people will be chasing midas. lol.
Midas $0.80 will be none existance after tomorrow .
Huat Ah :) $1.28 here we come.
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Hi! Richtan and Risktaker, Thank you for both your posting.
Understand, now I am with better mood to see thing. Agree with you Richtan, that why I always feel confuss why the price movement shows reversed direction with those indicators. Learn a lot from you.
Once again, Thank you.
Hope tomolo Midas shows up and pleases all her fans.
risktaker ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 19:48) Posted:
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Richtan dont worry about those unwanted noise :) Sometimes people see things differently. I agree with you that those are lagging indicators. I have a strong feeling tomorrow people will be chasing midas. lol.
Midas $0.80 will be none existance after tomorrow .
Huat Ah :) $1.28 here we come.
richtan ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 17:52) Posted:
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Hi raymondho,
Read my ealier reply to Bintang regardind ADX.
Personally, I dun read too much into those indicators u mentioned as they are lagging indicators, I pay more attention to the candles, their patterns, the emas and the vol as these are leading indicators to me.
Stoch is moree applicable when the stock price is range-bound but lose its significance in a trending stock.
This is based on my knowledge, feel free to disagree by sharing your knowledge, so tat we can learn from one another.. |
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Me with you.
rgds, star-trader
Thanks, Richtan,
Finally manage to post it up.
I do agree Midas FA is very strong with order book full up to 2010. But from the chart it shows short term downtrend even their qtr result is out, but less strenght. I doubt Monday's opening will show up.
May I have your view on my interpretating of chart? Vested
raymondho ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 22:05) Posted:
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Passengers would be able to travel between Beijing and most capital cities in China in eight hours by 2012, through a nationwide express railway network, according to the Ministry of Railways.
As about 10,000 km of passenger railways are currently under construction, a total of 13,000 km of passenger railways and intercity railways will be put into operation in 2012.
The network would consist of four north-south and four west-east lines of railways throughout the country, which would connect most capital cities and major cities in China, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Taiyuan and Nanjing.
The railway circuit could largely save passengers' travel time. Departing from Beijing, passengers could reach Tianjin within one hour and southern China's Guangzhou in seven hours by 2012.
China planned to invest at least 700 billion yuan ($102.49 billion) per year in railway construction over the next three years, said Vice Railway Minister Wang Zhiguo Monday.
By the end of this year, China would have a total of 86,000 km rail lines, second only to the United States, Wang said
Richtan dont worry about those unwanted noise :) Sometimes people see things differently. I agree with you that those are lagging indicators. I have a strong feeling tomorrow people will be chasing midas. lol.
Midas $0.80 will be none existance after tomorrow .
Huat Ah :) $1.28 here we come.
richtan ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 17:52) Posted:
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Hi raymondho,
Read my ealier reply to Bintang regardind ADX.
Personally, I dun read too much into those indicators u mentioned as they are lagging indicators, I pay more attention to the candles, their patterns, the emas and the vol as these are leading indicators to me.
Stoch is moree applicable when the stock price is range-bound but lose its significance in a trending stock.
This is based on my knowledge, feel free to disagree by sharing your knowledge, so tat we can learn from one another..
richtan ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 17:22) Posted:
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Hi raymondho,
To post your charts, follow this steps:
1. In your chartnexus, click "File", "Capture charts", saved it to your hard disk
2. Go to http://tinypic.com/, click "Browse" and search for tat saved chart" and click "Upload now"
3. Copy "Direct link for layouts"
4. In sharejunction, click "Insert/modify image" n paste step 3 in "Image url" n click "OK" |
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Bintang,
Thanks for that.. Yup, helping each others to learn as everyone has their own way of trading and advices which I think is necessary..
rgds, star-trader..
Hi richtan , star-trader n raymondho , thanks for all your valuable comments , as we are in this risky trading market , to warn n giving advice to each others are neccessary , hoping for the best n preparing for the worst , n last but not least is setting stop-loss protection is a' must ' . Thank u all gentlemen .
Hi raymondho,
Read my ealier reply to Bintang regardind ADX.
Personally, I dun read too much into those indicators u mentioned as they are lagging indicators, I pay more attention to the candles, their patterns, the emas and the vol as these are leading indicators to me.
Stoch is moree applicable when the stock price is range-bound but lose its significance in a trending stock.
This is based on my knowledge, feel free to disagree by sharing your knowledge, so tat we can learn from one another..
richtan ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 17:22) Posted:
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Hi raymondho,
To post your charts, follow this steps:
1. In your chartnexus, click "File", "Capture charts", saved it to your hard disk
2. Go to http://tinypic.com/, click "Browse" and search for tat saved chart" and click "Upload now"
3. Copy "Direct link for layouts"
4. In sharejunction, click "Insert/modify image" n paste step 3 in "Image url" n click "OK"
raymondho ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 13:01) Posted:
I try to insert chart from Chartnexus, but can't do it.
From reading of chart, I found most of the indicators show a short term downtrend:
ADX : 18 +DX : 28 -DX : 22 is trending down,
CCI : 103 slipped from 163 and yet above 100, that means it will slip below 100 if no hugh vol to push up
MACD : 0.02 is now meeting and go flat
Stochastic : %K : 68% %D : 79% shows down
Friday's closing candlesticks also show a down sign.
I wonder by Monday opening Midas will surge, but the trendline (Bintang suggested) shows a resistance at 0.90
14 days MA support : 0.86
25 days MA support : 0.84
Of cause, market performance on the intraday will change all firection. Midas has a very bright and strong order books
so, for middle and long term, I agree it is a gem to be polished for shinning. But daily traders, may have to keep an eye on it.
Merely personal view for sharing, hope other forumers can point out my wrong interpretation of chart.
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