ThaiBev    Last:0.48    +0.015

up or down on debut?

where is the sore loser?

 

Yes, keep for medium and long term - it will bear fruits.

shareflux      ( Date: 12-Apr-2013 08:14) Posted: Mr Market may slaps ThaiBev on the wrist later. Good for short traders to cover and those late comer investor to board. Fundamentally there is nothing wrong. TH borrowed money to buy F&N and in so doing increases its debt. S&P is merely stating the obvious and this news may just present an escape hatch för all those shortists and window of opportunity for the late comers. För the long term investors, it is just noises that should be ignored.

 

Mr Market may slaps ThaiBev on the wrist later. Good for short traders to cover and those late comer investor to board. Fundamentally there is nothing wrong. TH borrowed money to buy F&N and in so doing increases its debt. S&P is merely stating the obvious and this news may just present an escape hatch för all those shortists and window of opportunity for the late comers. För the long term investors, it is just noises that should be ignored.

 

I find the report shld be read as muted. If you read the report carefully it said that S& P have removed all their ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on July 19, 2012. This is good news.But they have lowered ThBev long-term corporate credit rating to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. At the same time it is lowering their   long-term ASEAN regional scale rating on the company to 'axBBB+' from 'axA' due to Thai Bev's higher debt and lower cash flow adequacy to weaken its financial risk profile over the next 2 yrs (i.e. gestation period of F& N).

 

Remember when Singtel and DBS bank acquired Optus and   DaoHeng Bank. respectively their credit ratings were also adjusted lower due to high borrowing and gearing.The fundamentals of the companies were not affected. For a small/mid cap stock like ThBev with credit rating coverage showed that it is appealing to institutional investors. This downgrade will be just a slap on the wrist.I   think the stock price will still be trading above 60c. Any px lower than that is an opportunity  to collect more. Anyway this credit score allows lenders to predict with some accuracy how likely the borrower is to repay a loan and make payments on time only.

 

I think keen investors should be looking out for is their disclosure of the synergy between ThBev and FNN and its parent TCC's financial standing and its financial policies regarding Thai Bev. ThBev has to clarify its intention on FNN listing status by 18 Apr to SGX. According to some sources some funds  have bought into this counter prior to this run up.Dont forget the shortist have to cover their position bcos of the halt.

 

Sifu has good humour.  I like. 

Like I said, stocks is all about betting. Lol.

MrRice      ( Date: 11-Apr-2013 22:31) Posted: I was expecting the price to break through its 5 weeks base but now it looks more like breaking through downwards zzz...

 

if rating agency can be trusted then cow can also fly to the moon.

 

The credibility of all this ``fee taking`` rating coy from US is very bad . They created the financial crisis of Lehman brother.The latest Spore example was that they downgraded Yanlord to SELL when Yanlord was trading at 90cts sometime last year citing severe gearing and debt burden. Curiously yanlord price keep going up till today at about $1.50 . Now they changed their tune and said Yanlord is very sound and became a BUY now. They are now doing the same to Thbev to induce , they hope , a sharp correction before 18th April , so its fund can  buy at cheaper price if investors start selling tmr. To me, Thbev is a gem  and will be worth much more in a years time.  Its better for thbev to drop out of their credit watch . Just don`t pay them any fee, like many other sound and good blue chip coy of Spore and they will be out of the scene to interfere..

sg225551      ( Date: 11-Apr-2013 22:20) Posted: There must be an agenda to release this rating at this time. Why don't they release this rating after tcc bought over fnn. Why must be now? Surely they are playing some game.

 

I was expecting the price to break through its 5 weeks base but now it looks more like breaking through downwards zzz...

 

There must be an agenda to release this rating at this time. Why don't they release this rating after tcc bought over fnn. Why must be now? Surely they are playing some game.

 

Sifu is right.  It will be " si bay jia lat" (trok). Lol.

MrRice      ( Date: 11-Apr-2013 21:54) Posted: Why must s&p announce this kind of news when market sentiment is bright now haha.. Guess tml market open will jian hong (see red)

 

Haha but tmr they tua huat!

Octavia      ( Date: 11-Apr-2013 17:11) Posted: Those who contra/short before halt kena penalised.

 

Why must s&p announce this kind of news when market sentiment is bright now haha.. Guess tml market open will jian hong (see red)

 

Wa, this kind of news is really " gia si lang" (scary). Makes people sleepless. Lol.

sanuks      ( Date: 11-Apr-2013 21:19) Posted: ai yo yo! downgraded. Guess how low this counter will go when halt is lifted?

 

ai yo yo! downgraded. Guess how low this counter will go when halt is lifted?

 

Thai Beverage Public Co. Ltd. Rating Lowered To 'BBB-' And 'axBBB+' On Higher Leverage Outlook Negative

Stocks and Financial Services Press Releases Thursday April 11, 2013

SINGAPORE--11 Apr--Standard & Poor's

• We expect Thai Bev's higher debt and lower cash flow adequacy to weaken its financial risk profile over the next 24 months, following the completion of the company's debt-funded acquisition of a stake in F& N.
• We do not expect the Thailand-based beverage manufacturer's business risk profile to improve significantly during this time.
• We are lowering our long-term corporate credit rating on Thai Bev to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. We are also lowering our long-term ASEAN regional scale rating on the company to 'axBBB+' from 'axA'. We removed all the ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications.
• The negative outlook reflects the risk that management may fail to strengthen the company's financial risk profile, and the risk associated with the likely weakened financial risk profile of Thai Bev's parent TCC Group.

SINGAPORE (Standard & Poor's) April 11, 2013--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it had lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on Thailand-based beverage manufacturer Thai Beverage Public Co. Ltd. to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The outlook is negative. At the same time, we lowered our long-term ASEAN regional scale rating on the company to 'axBBB+' from 'axA'. We removed all the ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on July 19, 2012.

" We lowered our rating on Thai Bev because we expect the company's debt to remain high and its cash flow adequacy to stay weak over the next 24 months following its acquisition of a stake in F& N," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Xavier Jean. Thai Bev recently completed a Singapore dollar (S$) 3.3 billion acquisition of a 28.7% stake in Singapore-based conglomerate Fraser & Neave Ltd. (F& N), in conjunction with related party TCC Assets.

We expect the debt-funded acquisition to weaken Thai Bev's financial risk profile to " significant" from " modest," as our criteria define the terms. We project the company's ratio of funds from operations (FFO) to total debt to remain 20%-25% in 2013 and 2014. In our base-case scenario, we forecast the ratio of total debt to EBITDA at about 3.8x in 2013, reducing to about 3.2x in 2014. Our estimates of EBITDA and FFO include Thai baht (THB) 1 billion-THB1.5 billion in dividends annually from F& N.

" The F& N acquisition marks a shift in Thai Bev's financial policies, which we now view as aggressive," said Mr. Jean. " However, we understand that Thai Bev intends to restore its financial profile over the next two years."

Our assessment of Thai Bev's business risk profile remains " satisfactory." We believe that Thai Bev's stake in F& N will not meaningfully improve its product and geographic diversity over the next two years at least.

The negative outlook reflects our expectation that Thai Bev's deleveraging will be slow over the next two years. We expect that a high dividend payout over the period and a temporary spike in capital spending in 2013 will consume all of the company's discretionary cash flows during that year. We forecast the ratio of discretionary cash flows to total debt at negative 2%-0% in 2013, improving marginally to 5%-10% in 2014 and 2015.

The negative outlook also reflects the risks associated with privately-held TCC Group (TCC). TCC Assets, a related party, owns about 61% of F& N. We understand that at least part of TCC Assets' acquisition of F& N was debt-funded. Nevertheless, TCC has not disclosed the amount of the debt, the corporate level at which it will hold the debt, or how it will service the debt. TCC has also not divulged the extent of structural subordination and the degree to which it would rely on cash flows from Thai Bev to service the debt. We understand that cash flows are fully fungible among all TCC group holdings. As a result, related-party transaction risks remain the dividend that Thai Bev pays to TCC could increase and potentially further slow down the deleveraging.

We could lower the rating if: (1) Thai Bev's financial risk profile does not improve to " intermediate" over the next two years, including the FFO-to-total-debt ratio less than 30% and total debt-to-EBITDA ratio more than 3x (2) we perceive that the related-party risk has heightened such that material related-party transactions and shareholder-friendly initiatives weaken Thai Bev's business or financial risk profiles or (3) we believe that TCC's financial profile has deteriorated.

We could revise the outlook to stable if Thai Bev deleverages more rapidly than we expect. Indicative financial metrics include FFO-to-total-debt ratio of more than 30% by the end of 2014 and total-debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 3x on a sustainable basis. These could materialize if higher-than-expected revenue growth and margin result in stronger discretionary cash flows. An outlook revision would also require a clear mitigation of the current related-party risk between TCC and Thai Bev. That could include a better understanding of TCC's financial standing and its financial policies regarding Thai Bev.

 

Chang beer is among the products made by ThaiBev

 

S&P downgraded thai bev outlook to BBB- ... Don't sounds good

 

is that a good thing?

 

Those who contra/short before halt kena penalised.

 

Still no sign of lifting halt announcement.