Vard   

Vard Holdings

Looks like this counter is gonna pick up some steam really soon :D

WanSiTong      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 16:33) Posted: Huat ah ! Orders will be the trigger few large ones might be announced soon: MER expects Petrobras orders and a few OSCV orders to be announced soon, which should lead to street upgrades of 2014 and 2015 profit estimates. MER has an Outperform rating on Vard and a 12-month target price of $1.82. CitizenBeng      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 14:33) Posted: In a research report released at end May, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) commented that most investors they met seem to appreciate that the stock looks quite attractive at current valuations and market expectations have upside risk. MER believes that orders will be the trigger and believes a few large ones may be announced soon. Below are the excerpts from the research note MER published on 28 May after meeting with investors and Vard’s management on a road show in Hong Kong: Order guidance of “at least” NOK12bn: Street is estimating NOK10bn-11bn of orders in 2013. MER thinks VARD is set to surprise the street. - Approximately NOK4.5bn of orders already done - Expecting a minimum of NOK12bn which could go up to NOK15bn - Expecting OSCV market strength to continue - Expecting a few customized large hybrid vessel orders - Expecting AHTS market to bounce strongly in 2H13 - Expecting 1-4 Petrobras vessel orders to the tune of NOK1.5bn-5bn Brazil issues are limited to 4 vessels under control by end-2013: Out of the five vessels, one was delivered last week while execution is on track for other four to be delivered on time as per the new schedule. Staff has been brought over from Romania and Norway, while some work has been outsourced. Management changes have also been done at the Brazil yard. Competition will intensify, but Vard staying ahead in the race through investments in technology: More than the Chinese yards, Vard sees Korean and Japanese yards as a threat as they become more desperate due to lack of orders in their core markets. But MER thinks Vard is keeping ahead in the race through innovation and technology (like recent expansion in Romania and Vietnam yards to be able to build more customized and large vessels). New owner a better fit has ambitions to grow the company: The new owner is taking active interest in growing the company, as indicated by the new investments in Romania and Vietnam. In addition, the new owner has yards in the US and Middle East, where Vard has no presence, and can now expand its reach Action and recommendation Investors bottom-fishing: Most investors MER met seem to appreciate that the stock looks quite attractive at current valuations and market expectations have upside risk, but seem to be bottom-fishing. Orders will be the trigger few large ones might be announced soon: MER expects Petrobras orders and a few OSCV orders to be announced soon, which should lead to street upgrades of 2014 and 2015 profit estimates. MER has an Outperform rating on Vard and a 12-month target price of $1.82.

 

Huat ah !

Orders will be the trigger few large ones might be announced soon: MER expects Petrobras orders and a few OSCV orders to be announced soon, which should lead to street upgrades of 2014 and 2015 profit estimates.

MER has an Outperform rating on Vard and a 12-month target price of $1.82.

CitizenBeng      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 14:33) Posted: In a research report released at end May, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) commented that most investors they met seem to appreciate that the stock looks quite attractive at current valuations and market expectations have upside risk. MER believes that orders will be the trigger and believes a few large ones may be announced soon. Below are the excerpts from the research note MER published on 28 May after meeting with investors and Vard’s management on a road show in Hong Kong: Order guidance of “at least” NOK12bn: Street is estimating NOK10bn-11bn of orders in 2013. MER thinks VARD is set to surprise the street. - Approximately NOK4.5bn of orders already done - Expecting a minimum of NOK12bn which could go up to NOK15bn - Expecting OSCV market strength to continue - Expecting a few customized large hybrid vessel orders - Expecting AHTS market to bounce strongly in 2H13 - Expecting 1-4 Petrobras vessel orders to the tune of NOK1.5bn-5bn Brazil issues are limited to 4 vessels under control by end-2013: Out of the five vessels, one was delivered last week while execution is on track for other four to be delivered on time as per the new schedule. Staff has been brought over from Romania and Norway, while some work has been outsourced. Management changes have also been done at the Brazil yard. Competition will intensify, but Vard staying ahead in the race through investments in technology: More than the Chinese yards, Vard sees Korean and Japanese yards as a threat as they become more desperate due to lack of orders in their core markets. But MER thinks Vard is keeping ahead in the race through innovation and technology (like recent expansion in Romania and Vietnam yards to be able to build more customized and large vessels). New owner a better fit has ambitions to grow the company: The new owner is taking active interest in growing the company, as indicated by the new investments in Romania and Vietnam. In addition, the new owner has yards in the US and Middle East, where Vard has no presence, and can now expand its reach Action and recommendation Investors bottom-fishing: Most investors MER met seem to appreciate that the stock looks quite attractive at current valuations and market expectations have upside risk, but seem to be bottom-fishing. Orders will be the trigger few large ones might be announced soon: MER expects Petrobras orders and a few OSCV orders to be announced soon, which should lead to street upgrades of 2014 and 2015 profit estimates. MER has an Outperform rating on Vard and a 12-month target price of $1.82.

 

UOB chart genie alert just triggered!

Time: 3:47PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: Vard Holdings(MS7)
Signal: Resistance - Breakout with High Volume
Last Done: $0.795

 

In a research report released at end May, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) commented that most investors they met seem to appreciate that the stock looks quite attractive at current valuations and market expectations have upside risk. MER believes that orders will be the trigger and believes a few large ones may be announced soon.

Below are the excerpts from the research note MER published on 28 May after meeting with investors and Vard’s management on a road show in Hong Kong:

Order guidance of “at least” NOK12bn: Street is estimating NOK10bn-11bn of orders in 2013. MER thinks VARD is set to surprise the street.

- Approximately NOK4.5bn of orders already done
- Expecting a minimum of NOK12bn which could go up to NOK15bn
- Expecting OSCV market strength to continue
- Expecting a few customized large hybrid vessel orders
- Expecting AHTS market to bounce strongly in 2H13
- Expecting 1-4 Petrobras vessel orders to the tune of NOK1.5bn-5bn

Brazil issues are limited to 4 vessels under control by end-2013: Out of the five vessels, one was delivered last week while execution is on track for other four to be delivered on time as per the new schedule. Staff has been brought over from Romania and Norway, while some work has been outsourced. Management changes have also been done at the Brazil yard.

Competition will intensify, but Vard staying ahead in the race through investments in technology: More than the Chinese yards, Vard sees Korean and Japanese yards as a threat as they become more desperate due to lack of orders in their core markets. But MER thinks Vard is keeping ahead in the race through innovation and technology (like recent expansion in Romania and Vietnam yards to be able to build more customized and large vessels).

New owner a better fit has ambitions to grow the company: The new owner is taking active interest in growing the company, as indicated by the new investments in Romania and Vietnam. In addition, the new owner has yards in the US and Middle East, where Vard has no presence, and can now expand its reach

Action and recommendation
Investors bottom-fishing: Most investors MER met seem to appreciate that the stock looks quite attractive at current valuations and market expectations have upside risk, but seem to be bottom-fishing.

Orders will be the trigger few large ones might be announced soon: MER expects Petrobras orders and a few OSCV orders to be announced soon, which should lead to street upgrades of 2014 and 2015 profit estimates.

MER has an Outperform rating on Vard and a 12-month target price of $1.82.

 

Last:0.8     Vol:8784k     +0.015

the volume speaks for itself..

 

iluvboost      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 12:31) Posted: i agree. based on technical indicators, the risk to reward ratio is good. (provided no sudden bad world news) entered today at 80, SL 78 , TP ~90-100 . fifo disclaimer  ozone2002      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 09:51) Posted: Last:0.8     Vol:6197k     +0.015 i smell reversal coming.. gd luck dyodd

 

Penalty 1k + gst/counter.

dekmelvie      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 13:01) Posted: Hi guys! Jst wanna ask. What will happened if i short sell a counter and did not buy back on the day? How much penalty from sgx? Will sgx buy back to me?

 

Hi guys! Jst wanna ask. What will happened if i short sell a counter and did not buy back on the day? How much penalty from sgx? Will sgx buy back to me?

 

Like that really run road liao!!!

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 05:43) Posted: Fri I will try to go Vard Office again, it was very strange no light was on too! All have a great day!!! Peter_Pan      ( Date: 24-Jul-2013 13:37) Posted: Run road liao..

 

i agree. based on technical indicators, the risk to reward ratio is good. (provided no sudden bad world news)

entered today at 80, SL 78 , TP ~90-100 .

fifo disclaimer 

ozone2002      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 09:51) Posted: Last:0.8     Vol:6197k     +0.015 i smell reversal coming.. gd luck dyodd

 

Based on first half results 2013 for now,

net book value (excluding intangible assets)/ share   = 0.56

DCF valuation based on discount factor 0.12 and assume no growth (positive or negative), letting g = 0, intrinsic value/ share  ~= 0.46.

Fair value / Target Price = ?? (You decide..)

 

SFGuyRuleZ's target price for now = 0.89.

Jacelin84's target price = 0.69.

Hawkeye's target price = 0.5

Market's target price = ????????

Cheers!!

 

Before  Niteroi yard woes and for financial year 2012 (not including last Q), EBITDA margin for Vard  was relatively constant at ~13.6%

After  Niteroi yard issue and for last Q of 2012, EBDITA margin was 11.37%.

For first Q 2013, continued to be affected by  Niteroi yard, EBDITA margin was 11.07%.

2nd Q 2013, EBDITA margin dropped to 4.1% . Why?? From the results, we can see a relatively higher  amount of materials and subcontracting costs while the rest of other costs remaining relatively constant. Due to the overload conditions of Niteroi yard, construction of hulls has to be outsourced to other contractors and to be built in another yard, resulting in a negative contribution margin. Coupled with higher than expected start-up costs of yard Promar, EBDITA margin for 2nd Q was adversely affected.

The last ship that is outsourced has already been delivered => no negative contribution margin.

Yard Promar has started operations => Overload conditions for yard Niteroi would be reduced.

If contribution margin is not -ve, more orders will still lead to more profits.

In the long term, I feel, Vard will shine after all the dust settles. Above is just my own opinion and how i intrepret. DYODD!! =)

 

TP?

ozone2002      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 09:51) Posted: Last:0.8     Vol:6197k     +0.015 i smell reversal coming.. gd luck dyodd

 

Sailing sailing home..lol

 

IPO price is 0.79. 

Hope it is reverse time. Bought 10lots yesterday for fun.  

 

Ipo price is 79 cent~

Tempest      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 09:46) Posted: How much is the ipo price?

 

Last:0.8     Vol:6197k     +0.015

i smell reversal coming..

gd luck dyodd

 

How much is the ipo price?

 

Tickets getting more expensive. Limited seats left!

heavenknow      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 09:22) Posted: The ship is starting its engine...bought your tickets already? Bye bye ipo price

 

The ship is starting its engine...bought your tickets already? Bye bye ipo price

 

50 cents is your TP to enter, LOL. Tan ku ku !!

Hawkeye      ( Date: 24-Jul-2013 23:57) Posted: Vard problem is overcost means still loosing much money in Brazil yard. Still not resolve yet. They are not Chinese yard, Chinese yard just need orders to make money. Vard manpower and overcost means more orders loose more money. The yard in Brazil do affect the whole company profitability. How much don't know. So Cosco and Yangzijiang better - just get orders. Watching Vard how low it can go then buy in later. Expect it may go to 50cts if problem not solved. That is why fund managers dump like rain. newbie888      ( Date: 24-Jul-2013 23:48) Posted: ooOoo...rsi made a U-turn...is the dust going to fly again....