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Gold going up this year?

When unfairness, price distortion, corruption, and loss of true wealth reach the extreme, the result is a loss of confidence in the paper-money system.

I quote John Keynes from 1919:

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

Paul Volker was right when he said in 2000:

"Inflation is related to monetary policy. It's related to the issue of money. The issue of money is a governmental responsibility predominantly, and to use that authority in a way that leads to inflation is a system that fools a lot of people, and to keep fooling them you have to do it more and more; [that] is a moral issue. I put myself in that camp."

And Bill Gates said at Davos world economic forum in January 2005:

"I'm short the dollar. The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down.

We're in uncharted territory when the world's reserve currency has so much outstanding debt. It is a bit scary."

How do you short the dollar? With ECB printing Euros no slower than the Fed printing dollars, it's clear that gold is the only refuge of savings. Gold has raced from $428 to $850 today since Bill spoke in 2005. Is it too late to join gold? The right price for gold today is a long topic that's best be left for another day. However, judging by how oil rocketed from $10 to $100 within the past decade, gold has not nearly reached its potential.

 

buy gold!.. keep physical gold is the best..if ya buy in SG cos got GST..7% x USD800 ~ USD60 gone.. jia lat..

use ur imagination..

 

Gold rebounded near my support of around US$850.

Bullion's fall to a 4-month low of US$845 an ounce 2/5 spurred buying from the physical sector, especially in main consumer India ahead of a religious festival.

India celebrates Akshaya Tritiya on 7/5 and 8/5 -- a festival when many Hindus buy precious metals with the belief it will give them lasting prosperity.

Dealers also reported buying interest from jewellers and bargain hunters in the Middle East, Indonesia and Thailand.

 

Agreed, don't go for unit trust. ETF(Exchante Traded Fund, just in case you ask) is a much viable tool.

 

hey ace6868, paiseh, i bought some gold yest at 85.4. only started entering it tho.

try to get it below 86 if possible. if you're willing to hold to year end, the target is actually ~120 this time around by fibo.

USD will continue to go down; but on the plus side, the sing govt is not likely to let the S$ strengthen too much against the USD, cos then our exports will not be cheap enough for outsiders (nevermind if the locals suffer *sigh*)---the lowest likely is USD 1.3 : S$ 1. Actually, this current rate of about 1.35 : 1 is the low already, with 1.3 being the lowest low likely.

So what we're expecting will be that the price of gold rises above the potential future weakening of the USD. which is likely anyway.

Again, pls note that this is for long term holding, not short term trading. Impatient traders can find better counters for faster returns.

cheers! :)

 

Welcome home, Elf. Do give a shout when you think it is time to pick up more gold..... btw, what is your take on the continuing down of US$ vs accumulating/buying this Gold stock?

elfinchilde      ( Date: 05-May-2008 13:16) Posted: hi ace6868; i've been on hols and busy with other stuff; so haven't looked in on the market in a while. missed this rally. sigh. anyhow, for those of you in gold/interested in gold, please note that while the movements may look big (cos it's actually denominated in lots of 10 shares, rather than 1000), the actual movement for gold is slower than stocks: you can expect to hold it for between 1-3 months to see a profit. anyhow, my last trade for gold was to lock it in at US$92-93. have been watching the retracement. perhaps not quite yet time to enter. fyi, for this counter, consistently, the BBs controlling are Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Global (checked via counterparty). Bona fide BBs, unlike our local BBs. So be very careful. Their strategy tends to be long term, and they'll hold control over the counter for a longer period than our impatient BBs (ie, expect controlled accumulation/distribution). So not particularly a good counter for contra trades. Plus, because they hold a lot of it, you can expect sudden movements at times to flush out the weak hands. By my calculations, they use about US$2mil to control this counter (see market depth, consistently lots of 11,000; 7,000 and 6,000 above/below--depending on direction), of which about US$500k is traded per day.  If interested in buying, do it in parts (dollar cost averaging), and not buying it at one shot/daily. This latter may be too risky. Need to play this counter for the long haul for max benefits.

 

hahaha. as a long term investment, it's a good preposition, ozone. It's a rare commodity after all; and as china and india grow up, the demand for gold will only increase. Especially within the next 5-10 years.

What's interesting is if you look at the demand for gold. it used to be as investment and hedge. but if you look at india's profile, especially, it's for jewelry. 15% of their gold is traded for jewelry, if i remember rightly.

ie, as India and China rises, the demand for jewelry will increase; and this means overall gold prices can only go up, since the resources for gold are finite, and it's getting harder and harder to find gold.

Not unless you see a sudden switch in appetite to silver or something. but given the long traditions of these countries, it is unlikely the gleam will be taken off anytime soon.

Plus, as the US dollar goes down/remains down, the value of gold will only increase. Especially so if the USD loses favour.

 

i will buy gold till the US gets outta debt..which probably be forever!.. haha

 

 

hi ace6868; i've been on hols and busy with other stuff; so haven't looked in on the market in a while. missed this rally. sigh.

anyhow, for those of you in gold/interested in gold, please note that while the movements may look big (cos it's actually denominated in lots of 10 shares, rather than 1000), the actual movement for gold is slower than stocks: you can expect to hold it for between 1-3 months to see a profit.

anyhow, my last trade for gold was to lock it in at US$92-93. have been watching the retracement. perhaps not quite yet time to enter.

fyi, for this counter, consistently, the BBs controlling are Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Global (checked via counterparty). Bona fide BBs, unlike our local BBs. So be very careful. Their strategy tends to be long term, and they'll hold control over the counter for a longer period than our impatient BBs (ie, expect controlled accumulation/distribution). So not particularly a good counter for contra trades. Plus, because they hold a lot of it, you can expect sudden movements at times to flush out the weak hands.

By my calculations, they use about US$2mil to control this counter (see market depth, consistently lots of 11,000; 7,000 and 6,000 above/below--depending on direction), of which about US$500k is traded per day.

 If interested in buying, do it in parts (dollar cost averaging), and not buying it at one shot/daily. This latter may be too risky. Need to play this counter for the long haul for max benefits.   

 

The cost for gold etf is much lower than for gold unit trust.

 

Just like how u buy stocks lo. just tat minimum is 10 shares buy la..

If not u can buy unit trust related to gold..

oceanblue      ( Date: 05-May-2008 11:10) Posted: I am considering buying this for mid-term to long term. How is it being done? It is shown as10$US, what dose that translate to? For every 1 cent, how much is the profit?

 

I am considering buying this for mid-term to long term. How is it being done? It is shown as10$US, what dose that translate to? For every 1 cent, how much is the profit?

 

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10149.htm An revisit on Death of Gold.

 

I told her gold is going down trend, too late leow, unless there are unforeseen issues.

 

Comex gold today closed 856.50-57.00 after a high of 859.25-75 and low at 845.25-75. Gold turned in a yeoman's performance, rallying strongly and unexpectedly after a markedly stronger than expected US payrolls number, and while the euro took it on chin. It looks as a market well-short chose to take profit; two market players buying direct simultaneously had 850 re-attained very quickly. Crude oil finally topping out, it bounced to 116, and EURUSD likewise above 1.5450, produced a close $2 off the highs. The close felt firm despite the slender range. This was the third consecutive down-week, but above support in the 835-45 zone. For now we'd expect euro- and crude-dependant range of 840-880 - and would become especially wary if EURUSD broke below 1.5350.


Comex silver today closed 16.40-43 after a high of 16.49-52 and low at 16.07-10. The day was remarkably quiet. The visit to the lows was brief and followed by a workmanlike grind up to 16.50 before slipping ten cents into the close. A move back above 16.50 would target the 100-day moving average at 17.10 initially; beyond there is congestion at 17.40-50. Back through 16.00 would target the 200-day moving average at 15.30.


Platinum today resumed its rightful place - for the few hours at least - as the star of the complex, rallying $50 from 1850 to 1900 after US employment data. A brief dip gave way to a further rise on the solid rally in the precious complex. The close was 1893-03, high 1898-08 and low 1845-55. The close above the 100-day moving average at 1850 and the long-lower handle finally suggests a short-term base. We wouldn't rule out extension to 2000, but are probably more likely to see sideways trade for a while.

Palladium had its best day in two weeks, with a slow, quiet rise summing to $10 at the close, and high, of 416-19; the low was 403-06. The weekly close on key support circa 418 makes it credible that support has held despite the 24-hour probe down to 405. Barring strong new buying or a complete turnaround in the complex 430 is still achievable, but getting to 450 should be a struggle.


Industrial metals today closed mixed, but bellwethers copper and aluminium, as well as zinc and tin, were all higher, taking back some of their recent, sharp losses on stronger crude oil and position squaring ahead of the long weekend in the UK.

Copper clawed back about 60% of yesterday's loss, going on to close above 8350 support, which is encouraging, and trying to break back into the 8400-8800 range. Ali's 2.6% surge nearly erased yesterday's loss. A short-term low now seems ratified at 2815. We expect a 2850-3000 range to unfold. Zinc bootstrapped itself off the floor after touching 2165, the January low; the 1% rally isn't that impressive, but at least established a floor.

Tin erased yesterday's loss, adding back 2%, re-affirming a 22,500-24,000 range. Lead was off modestly, unable to participate in today's rally, but today's hammer might grant a short-term reprieve. Rallies, however, are probably limited to 2700 for the short term (current 3m 2585). Nickel broke support at 28,000 briefly before managing to repair itself with a close above it. There's still a tussle going on between a strong downtrend and 28,000, and still a tossup on the eventual outcome.

The base metals market will be closed Monday owing to the UK holiday.

 

Anyone knows what happened to Elf... the resident Gold Champion?

Haven't seen her online for sometime now and miss her insightful posts.... not only in the Gold topic, but in others too

 

his tigeress acted very fast! maybe she afraid AK everyday drink beer become drink gold!lol ...cheers!

idesa168      ( Date: 02-May-2008 13:34) Posted: LOL...sounds very poor thing leh.....let her have the gold, buy diamonds for your girlfriends....lol, just joking! AK_Francis      ( Date: 02-May-2008 11:01) Posted: When US steady, gold lose shine leow. AK home tigeress sold gold chains, including mine, yesterday without consulting me but calling me after she had collected the money. Worst didn't pay me my share. Ah yah, things inside her drawer, hers. Shares under her name, not mine but I paid $$$$. Shih.

 

LOL...sounds very poor thing leh.....let her have the gold, buy diamonds for your girlfriends....lol, just joking!

AK_Francis      ( Date: 02-May-2008 11:01) Posted: When US steady, gold lose shine leow. AK home tigeress sold gold chains, including mine, yesterday without consulting me but calling me after she had collected the money. Worst didn't pay me my share. Ah yah, things inside her drawer, hers. Shares under her name, not mine but I paid $$$$. Shih.

 

Gold may continue be weak this month, but it should pick up steam in the 2nd half from Jun onwards to early next year. The next key support is around the 200-day MA of US$823.46. So far held above US$847.

Since gold is denominated in US$ and US$ is falling, it is used as a hedge against the dollar and will rise at a faster rate than the falling US$.

 

When US steady, gold lose shine leow. AK home tigeress sold gold chains, including mine, yesterday without consulting me but calling me after she had collected the money. Worst didn't pay me my share. Ah yah, things inside her drawer, hers. Shares under her name, not mine but I paid $$$$. Shih.