REALLY STRONG QUEUE TO BUY.. NO KIDDING..

bennykusman      ( Date: 21-Oct-2009 13:47) Posted: Time Buy Queue Last Done Type Sell Queue Vol ('000) Price Vol ('000) Price Vol ('000) Price 13:47:09 (+10)165 2           13:46:48 (+40)155 2           13:46:34 (+5)115 2           13:46:14 (+50)110 2           13:45:24 (+20)60 2           13:40:30 (+10)40 2           13:33:47 (+5)30 2           13:33:22 (+10)25 2 bennykusman      ( Date: 21-Oct-2009 13:32) Posted: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_BC4A031413447C2248257656001A8D9B/$file/Ezra_Chim_Sao_FPSO_PR.pdf?openelement hope ezra will fly now..

 

Time	Buy Queue		Last Done		Type	Sell Queue
	Vol ('000)	Price	Vol ('000)	Price		Vol ('000)	Price
13:47:09	(+10)165	2
13:46:48	(+40)155	2
13:46:34	(+5)115	2
13:46:14	(+50)110	2
13:45:24	(+20)60	2
13:40:30	(+10)40	2
13:33:47	(+5)30	2
13:33:22	(+10)25	2

bennykusman      ( Date: 21-Oct-2009 13:32) Posted: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_BC4A031413447C2248257656001A8D9B/$file/Ezra_Chim_Sao_FPSO_PR.pdf?openelement hope ezra will fly now..

 

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_BC4A031413447C2248257656001A8D9B/$file/Ezra_Chim_Sao_FPSO_PR.pdf?openelement hope ezra will fly now..

 

Dear all, Part 2 of my analysis of Ezra's FY 2009 Financials and Prospects has been posted on my blog at http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com. Feel free to visit and leave comments, thanks ! :D

 

There is a gap at $1.80 waiting to be filled.

wealth      ( Date: 20-Oct-2009 18:39) Posted: bot @ 2.02, should we cut loss, since there is double top formation and re-enter at lower price read tp for this is 2.20

 

bot @ 2.02, should we cut loss, since there is double top formation and re-enter at lower price

read tp for this is 2.20 

 

 

Check again the weekly chart , last week closed at $2.02 , the volume done was more than the volume done five weeks ago at $2.05 . This may regain momemtum to avoid the weekly double top formation if this week volume done would exceed last week.

Bintang      ( Date: 20-Oct-2009 06:49) Posted: If it is a double top formation , it is not a good sign . But still can wait for further confirmation . bennykusman      ( Date: 19-Oct-2009 23:36) Posted: is it a good sign

 

If it is a double top formation , it is not a good sign . But still can wait for further confirmation .

bennykusman      ( Date: 19-Oct-2009 23:36) Posted: is it a good sign ? Bintang      ( Date: 19-Oct-2009 23:17) Posted: Ezra may forming a double top formation if volume is lower than the previous when  making the same high .

 

Tek2009, it's really not that simple, to be honest. Perhaps you can wait a day or 2 when I finish up Part 2 of my analysis. I do welcome comments on my blog as well.

Cheers!

 

is it a good sign ?

Bintang      ( Date: 19-Oct-2009 23:17) Posted: Ezra may forming a double top formation if volume is lower than the previous when  making the same high .

 

Ezra may forming a double top formation if volume is lower than the previous when  making the same high .

 

Dear musicwhiz5, thanks. So the decision of sell or buy depends on the needs of placement/CB issue.

 

Hi Tek2009,

There are different ways of perceiving these events. Management could argue that even though placements are dilutive, the resulting earnings growth and ROI can adequately compensate existing shareholders for the dilution in EPS and Dividend. It would, of course, depend on what the fund raising is for and if the proceeds are used in the proper manner. If, for example, a company were to use the cash just to pay down debt and for working capital (in the normal course of business), then it may not be a good sign for them to keep raising money through dilutive placements. A rights issue would achieve essentially the same effect except that shareholders have to cough up money. Since Lionel Lee and Lee Kian Soo and family own 30% of Ezra, it is unlikely that they would want to come out money from their own pockets; thus I feel placement or CB may be a possible alternative.

As for CB, take the example of Swiber. The CB will have a fixed interest rate and this represents a fixed cash outflow for the Company; so assuming they are able to grow the business above this % level, then it justifies the issuance of the CB. Even then, the future dilutive effects of this CB cannot be ignored as the conversion price may sometimes be adjusted downwards according to market price; thus implying higher levels of dilution in future. CB are also classified as debt in the Balance Sheet and increase the gearing of a company, and since Ezra has a gearing of 0.6x they may wish to think of another method to raise funds. Recall in 2008 that they sold shares in EOC on Oslo Bors, effectively unlocking the cash in this subsidiary and converting it to an associate company. This was a one-off cash "bonanza" for them. They had also made use of sale-and-leaseback to free up their Balance Sheet and bring in cash and included Bargain Purchase Options on these assets so that they can purchase them back in future. So I guess there are other forms of "innovative" financing to raise cash, but note that these all have their own negative implications and consequences.

Cheers.

 

Dear musicwhiz5, 
Thanks for great analysis. In the cash flow review, "I suspect the Company may be planning either another placement or convertible bond issue to shore up their cash position, and this could be highly dilutive to shareholders or increase their gearing further." - Does it benifit to shareholder or imply the share price will significent drop in the future once calling for placement/convertible bond issue? what's your comment?