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he he he :) "with an evil smile"
Business Times Published September 18, 2009 |
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Brokers' Take
Infrastructure Sector
OCBC INVESTMENT RESEARCH, Sept 17
GOOD relative performance. Since we recommended Midas Holdings (Midas) and Rotary Engineering (Rotary) as positive themed investments on July 8, 2009, Rotary has returned about 60 per cent while Midas has gained about 11 per cent. On a relative scale, the FSSTI gained 18 per cent in the same period.
We think that these two companies have fundamentals as earnings are backed by newly filled order books. Rotary will recognise its US$745 million project in Saudi Arabia over four years while Midas will work through 1.4 billion yuan (S$291 million) of orders till 2011.
Both have potential for more contract wins. With 1.4 billion yuan worth of order book backlog till 2011, Midas will look to grow it further as the second government tender for 4,150 train cars is due to flow down to profile suppliers such as themselves in October-November this year.
We also believe that its associate, Nanjing Puzhen Railway Transport, will be ramping up delivery of its 768-train backlog till 2011. Midas's new downstream processing business will be pushing to add to its first 73.8 million yuan contract, transforming it into a one-stop processing shop for the railway industry.
We have not heard its substantially larger peer, China Zhongwang, winning any contracts to date.
As mentioned during the Q2 2009 briefing, Rotary is still pursuing projects in the region despite clinching the landmark US$745 million SATORP project in Saudi Arabia. While caution is still prevalent, credit markets have loosened somewhat and Rotary should be able to seal a substantial deal before the year is out.
Management has also updated us that a 50-man SATORP team will be based here with the Rotary team with initial procurement starting end-2009. Material take-off will start and revenue recognition should ram up in Q2 2010.
On the local front, 10 projects are slated to conclude by H2 2009 and we think tail-end variation orders will be awarded and will accrete positively.
We iterate that Midas's and Rotary's net cash positions, good operating cash flows and better earnings visibility in the next two to four years will provide investors with relatively safe investment havens.
We have maintained our estimates and 'buy' rating for Midas (Fair Value: $1.05). We have a 'buy' on Rotary and bump up its fair value to $1.37 based on FY2010F PER of 13 (previously 12) on new contract win expectations. Rotary traded up to 18x in 2007.
NEUTRAL
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Hi xinyang,
I had created 3 threads specially for newbies in mind, it is explained in one of the thread "Learning TA" on how to post the charts.
The 3 threads are under, "General", "Trading Techniques":
1. "Learning TA" - websites where u can learn TA for free (but of course, TA is not infallible, thus need to set stop-loss)
2. "Some recommended good Trading and TA books" - of course u can also buy TA books. Read as many TA books and money management books, it will definitely stand u in good stead.
3. "Advices to newbies" particular the 3 golden mantras (which I formulated, distilled n condensed based on all my past knowledge n read-ups).
xinyang ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 22:18) Posted:
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The longer it slept, the strong of the surge later on. More people leave the boat, more profit will be shared for those who stay on through all the way.
By the way, Mr. richtan, how to post the picture. i tried to upload to a website and then quote the website address after i click attaching picture, the picture preview is alright, but once i press OK, the thread posting page cannot proceed further.
richtan ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 22:02) Posted:
Below is my long term chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.
My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start
making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the
rating system by intentionally rating it as "bad post", this is not cursing but Buddhism beliefs
tat intentional bad deeds will accumulate for yourself and possibly your next generation,
"bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly
post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.
My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start
making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the
rating system by intentionally rating it as "bad post", this is not cursing but Buddhism beliefs
tat intentional bad deeds will accumulate for yourself and possibly your next generation,
"bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly
post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
The longer it slept, the strong of the surge later on. More people leave the boat, more profit will be shared for those who stay on through all the way.
By the way, Mr. richtan, how to post the picture. i tried to upload to a website and then quote the website address after i click attaching picture, the picture preview is alright, but once i press OK, the thread posting page cannot proceed further.
richtan ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 22:02) Posted:
Below is my long term chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.
My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start
making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the
rating system by intentionally rating it as "bad post", this is not cursing but Buddhism beliefs
tat intentional bad deeds will accumulate for yourself and possibly your next generation,
"bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly
post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
|
|
Below is my long term chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers.
My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA.
If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start
making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the
rating system by intentionally rating it as "bad post", this is not cursing but Buddhism beliefs
tat intentional bad deeds will accumulate for yourself and possibly your next generation,
"bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly
post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
Like what Peter Lynch says: Invest in the company, not the stock.
Market noise sets you off track and when the emotional factor starts playing its part one will then get jittery and make the wrong decisions only to regret it as the market moves along.
Sound FA, ensuing profitability and contracts rolling in. Perhaps if you adopt a macroeconomic lens and see the economic importance of this new railway system to China then you might see the underlying potential of Midas.
Cheers.
From OCBC Investment Research:
Midas's firm order book of 1.4 billion yuan (S$296 million), more anticipated contract wins in Sept - Nov 2009... will serve to under-gird valuations"
From "Lim & Tan securities":
We remain positive on Midas given its robust
growth prospects, underpinned by its robust order
books of RMB1.4bln as well as the robust prospects
of its 32.5% owned subsidiary company, also
underpinned by solid order books of RMB4.5bln.
And this in turn reflects the government’s active
efforts to support the railcar industry in China to
reduce transportation bottlenecks as well as reduce
transportation costs. Rail transportation is much
cheaper than air travel and is much safer and causes
much less pollution than automotive transportation.
The company will be increasing their production
capacity by 200% in the next 2 years to cope with
the strong order flows. Its PE of 20x remains
undemanding compared to its expected growth rate
of 40-50%.
Relax folks, it will go up, just keep them in the locked cupboard and come back a year later. all these contracts needs to be fulfilled and then become profit, when the profit is about to be reported then you get a lot of buying interest, until then there are other companies reporting in the mean time. so simply load up and forget it for a while.
Looking at Midas weekly chart , it formed a flat top formation since end of July 09 , n fluctuating from 81 cents to 90.5 cents for 8 weeks already . It is not likely to fall below this rectangular box formation , because the share price is now going beyond the 10MA weekly , volume is decreasing gradually ,so it is very important that when share price breaks the resistance at 90.5 cents with huge volume , then the uptrend could be confirmed immediately , otherwise this sideway trend would continue again in the coming weeks . One very important indicator to show Midas is going into the uptrnd movement is the ADX has risen n cut the -DMI from below recently .
Should hold MIDAS and get good return by Dec 2009.
Recommandby By OCBC research and DMG - Target price : $1.04
What risktaker said about BB's manupulation can also happen to other stocks. But why Midas in particular? Be patient, and you should reap your profit before year end.
risktaker ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:48) Posted:
Monday Jim brought 20 lots @ 0.85 (How many buyers are like Jim)
Tuesday Jenny Brought 10 lots @ 0.86 (How many buyers are like jenny)
Remember there are big time contra player as well.
Wednesday BB Pump it up to $0.89 - Those contra players who brought yesterday = confirm dead. If BB want them dead.
More people chase @ $0.88 , $0.87 because somehow the charge shows that the trend and direction = positively up.
Thursday BB pressure it to 0.86 -0.87 range Jim & Jenny still can make money if he exit today
Friday BB Pump a little up $0.87. People chase again. What if BB short it down to 0.84 within few throws and all they have to do is hold it for 2 days next week (Tuesday and Wednesday). All Contra players will lose money. The BB of course have to make money la. so it is eventually the Contra player that will pay BB profit.
Now ask yourself if that make sense.
In shares If you win, someone will lose thats the balance law.
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Monday Jim brought 20 lots @ 0.85 (How many buyers are like Jim)
Tuesday Jenny Brought 10 lots @ 0.86 (How many buyers are like jenny)
Remember there are big time contra player as well.
Wednesday BB Pump it up to $0.89 - Those contra players who brought yesterday = confirm dead. If BB want them dead.
More people chase @ $0.88 , $0.87 because somehow the charge shows that the trend and direction = positively up.
Thursday BB pressure it to 0.86 -0.87 range Jim & Jenny still can make money if he exit today
Friday BB Pump a little up $0.87. People chase again. What if BB short it down to 0.84 within few throws and all they have to do is hold it for 2 days next week (Tuesday and Wednesday). All Contra players will lose money. The BB of course have to make money la. so it is eventually the Contra player that will pay BB profit.
Now ask yourself if that make sense.
In shares If you win, someone will lose thats the balance law.
By the way when i say Monday & Tuesday range is referring to This week Monday & Tuesday. Thats why BB can squeeze the contra players tomorrow last day liao as the coming monday is holiday.
risktaker ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:00) Posted:
Midas Monday & Tuesday Range 0.84 - 0.865
Normal Contra - 5 to 7 days
Jim brought 20 lots Midas for $0.860 on monday for contra. 3 cents profit will be around $400.
He though that midas can cheong up to 0.90 so he queue @ 0.89 or 0.90 everyday.
finally BB let alot of people chase midas and BB know out of these people there are weak holders ( Contra players). He will then do a filtering technique pressuring the weak holders to sell its share to him at a lower price as Contra period will be up.
So if BB is wants to eat up everyone lol he will pressure it down to 0.835 then GG liao all contra will lose money. He can covered its short and buy cheap shares :)
This is the last time i will explain the trick. No more it is really against the rules. |
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appreciate it ristaker.
risktaker ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:21) Posted:
Anyway i am here to share what i think will happen to midas tomorrow. I hope i am wrong and u guys can win.
Good luck. Benn try to think deeper and you will understand me better.
Good luck midaser
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Anyway i am here to share what i think will happen to midas tomorrow. I hope i am wrong and u guys can win.
Good luck. Benn try to think deeper and you will understand me better.
Good luck midaser
oh btw, are u mensa member? if yes, then u are telling correctly that u have iq 140...
risktaker ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:12) Posted:
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you failed to understand what i am trying to explain :) Either my explanation is not good or your completely switch off. Midas is fantastic share for long term. but to contra players it is a too control share and contra players will lose most of the time that is the statement i am trying to deliver. BTW my IQ is above 140 not sure about yours since you cant understand me.
bennykusman ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:06) Posted:
| seriously ristaker, go to physiologist and do a short consultation... *no hurt*
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i understand you completely that's why i can reply to you...
it doesnt matter what IQ u have since i dont believe u got that IQ, or u took EASY IQ test, or just simply say 140.. Einstein has IQ 160, so u almost become an new Einstein.. congratz! 20 more points to be a genius...
to be real, this is a sharejunction forum, it's a share trading forum, there is no relation between IQ and share... unless u said that u are CFA holder, Master, or Phd holder, then u can brag here..
risktaker ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:12) Posted:
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you failed to understand what i am trying to explain :) Either my explanation is not good or your completely switch off. Midas is fantastic share for long term. but to contra players it is a too control share and contra players will lose most of the time that is the statement i am trying to deliver. BTW my IQ is above 140 not sure about yours since you cant understand me.
bennykusman ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:06) Posted:
| seriously ristaker, go to physiologist and do a short consultation... *no hurt*
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you failed to understand what i am trying to explain :) Either my explanation is not good or your completely switch off. Midas is fantastic share for long term. but to contra players it is a too control share and contra players will lose most of the time that is the statement i am trying to deliver. BTW my IQ is above 140 not sure about yours since you cant understand me.
bennykusman ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:06) Posted:
seriously ristaker, go to physiologist and do a short consultation... *no hurt*
risktaker ( Date: 17-Sep-2009 18:00) Posted:
Midas Monday & Tuesday Range 0.84 - 0.865
Normal Contra - 5 to 7 days
Jim brought 20 lots Midas for $0.860 on monday for contra. 3 cents profit will be around $400.
He though that midas can cheong up to 0.90 so he queue @ 0.89 or 0.90 everyday.
finally BB let alot of people chase midas and BB know out of these people there are weak holders ( Contra players). He will then do a filtering technique pressuring the weak holders to sell its share to him at a lower price as Contra period will be up.
So if BB is wants to eat up everyone lol he will pressure it down to 0.835 then GG liao all contra will lose money. He can covered its short and buy cheap shares :)
This is the last time i will explain the trick. No more it is really against the rules. |
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