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This is a medical/health care company competing in a US$5 billion industry ANNUALLY. Medical/healthcare stocks are generally recession proof and in fact, they tend to outperform the market.
3 billion mkt in europe, capture 20% (600m) + 800m in asia , at least 1.5b.No joke
BIOSENSORS CHEONG ARRRGGGGHHHH!!!!
The general consensus i gathered is BIG's share price may shoot past the previous resistance of $1.22 on Monday 
Not an inducement to buy. Never chase a soaring stock. But don't sell your winners too early.
Get ready your lozenges on monday........
BIOSENSORS CHEEEONG ARRGGGHHH!!! 
I think China's SFDA approval process is very slow. More then one year if we use CE as a basis to apply for SFDA approval. I think no more clinical trials will be needed by SFDA China since we already has CE. I could be wrong on this matter also. Pls check and verify
i used 50%( based on Bio historical report-bare stent or Axxion) as the margin for DES which i think is conservative consider Biomatrix a new product the cost of stent is $ 300?and sale could be $2500 which is around 88% margin. And Biomarix sales only ramp up in the 2nd half so no panic on the earnings for full year. so as long they can control the cost of operation it should be postive for 2009.
| |
High Revenue US(m) |
Cost of sales |
Product Margin |
|
| Critical care |
14 |
9.24 |
4.76 |
34% |
| Cardiological |
21 |
13.02 |
7.98 |
38% |
| DES |
66 |
19.8 |
46.2 |
70% |
| Licencing |
14 |
0 |
14 |
100% |
| |
115 |
42.06 |
72.94 |
63% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Operation cost if breakeven per quarter |
18 |
(72.94/4) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Low Revenue US(m) |
Cost of sales |
Product Margin |
|
| Critical care |
12 |
7.92 |
4.08 |
34% |
| Cardiological |
18 |
11.16 |
6.84 |
38% |
| DES |
58 |
17.4 |
40.6 |
70% |
| Licencing |
12 |
0 |
14 |
100% |
| |
100 |
36.48 |
65.52 |
66% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Operation cost if breakeven per quarter |
16 |
(65.52/4) |
|
|
 x 0
 x 0 |
Some key points noted from a conference call by an individual from another forum.
Revenue guidance is as 100m to 115m
Products/Projected revenue
Critical care
Low end 12 High end 14
Cardiological products
Low end 18 High end 21
Drug eluting stents
Low end 58 High end 66
Licensing fees
Low end 12 High end 14
Total
Low end 100 High end 115
Gross margins ard 55% to 65%
Will still have operating losses for 2009
Biomatrix production will be in latter half of this year
Terumo CE mark is key to penetration to Japan market since Biosensors has only approval to sell bare metal stents in Japan. |
Spotted some mistakes though i didn't listened clearly to the podcast.
First, the forumer is not clear on the financial year he is rathering to. BIG's FY2009 is starting from Apr 2008 to Mar 2009. So to say 2009 is misleading, as 75% of 2009 is actually FY2010. According to articles and interviews by the media, BIG said first half of FY2009 will be operating loss (due to biomatrix able to launch at a few countries immediately after CE) but second half of FY2009 may show some profit (as biomatrix is launched in more countries).
Second, Biomatrix production will have to start very soon as the official launch date for the first few European countries is Apr2008. How to start production in latter half of 2008? DES normally have a shelf-life of 18 months. BIG need to produce (i think singapore will be biomatrix's initial production base), then settle the logistics to the countries and further channels closer to customer source. All these takes time and to produce in latter half of 2008 is not realistic.
Third, I don't think Terumo can launch NOBORI in Japan market. Japan has their own FDA authourity and they are not using CE standards. Currently, Terumo is in the still trying to obtain Japan market approval. So Terumo getting CE has nothing to do with penetrating into Japan market.
Lastly, gross margin mentioned is not Biomatrix's gross margin but overall for all products. I remember i came across an agreement on BSX and ABT for Xience DES cost of manufacturing. Its some like this: ?
Abbott Manufacturing Cost? means, for each DES Stent shipped during the relevant calendar year, (i) $400 in 2006, (ii) $350 in 2007, (iii) $300 in 2008, (iv) $275 in 2009, and (v) $250 in 2010 and all other calendar years thereafter during the term of the supply arrangements.
Xience had their CE in 2006 and will be FDA approved in 2008. So these guys can estmate their manufacturing cost based on expected demand and new launches after approvals. The manufacturing cost decreases year by year from US$400 to US$250 per Xience DES because of economies of scales for better manufacturing factory utilisation rate as the DES gains more global market share. We know DESs is selling in many places at average price of US$2,300 to US$2,500. I think DESs generally gives a gross margin of 500% to 900%, depending on volume of production/market share. To see solid profits, its still a volume game after all.
x 0
x 0
* Alert Admin |
It will be marketed and sold its ?BioMatrix? product immediately in selected European countries including German, Italy, Spain and Russia. Other European countries will be added to the list after obtaining additional local regulatory approval. These include UK, Switzerland (6 months) and France (12 months).
The product will also be marketed and sold in several SE Asian countries which acknowledge the CE Mark. These include Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Management also indicated that intend to commence the registration process to obtain the SFDA approvals such that BioMatrix can be sold in China. This is expected to take around 21 months. If approved, Biosensors will have two SFDA approved bioabsorbable DES products in China (BioMatrix and Excel). Company aims to position the products separately to tap both the high-end and low-end markets.
The company will be able to produce DES by itself for the coming 6 months. From what we got from Shandong Weigao, Shandong Weigao will do OEM for Biosensors in the future.
Helena Qiu
Equity Research |
Does it mean that BioMatrix cannot be sold in China soon? If yes, why didn't management apply for SFDA earlier if they had seen large potential in China market ? They could have used the results used in submission for CE Mark....? If this 21 months lag is true, would JWMS be still be selling other DES for the time being in China..
Based on Dcang84,
i just do some simple calculation on the project operation expenses per quarter based on hoistorical data.
| |
High Revenue US(m) |
Cost of sales |
Product Margin |
|
| Critical care |
14 |
9.24 |
4.76 |
34% |
| Cardiological |
21 |
13.02 |
7.98 |
38% |
| DES |
66 |
33 |
33 |
50% |
| Licencing |
14 |
0 |
14 |
100% |
| |
115 |
55.26 |
59.74 |
52% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Operation cost if breakeven per quarter |
15 |
m |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Low Revenue US(m) |
Cost of sales |
Product Margin |
|
| Critical care |
12 |
7.92 |
4.08 |
34% |
| Cardiological |
18 |
11.16 |
6.84 |
38% |
| DES |
58 |
29 |
29 |
50% |
| Licencing |
12 |
0 |
14 |
100% |
<>
| |
100 |
48.08 |
53.92 |
54% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Operation cost if breakeven per quarter |
13 |
m |
|
|
2008 half year report operation cost is around 28.5m and if compared with the project 2009 forecast(breakeven margin)it is around 26m-30m based on cacluation above. No wonder CEO says there might be loss or little profit. With R&D and expansion in mind, operation will goes up so full year 2009 operation cost might be more than 15m(average) per quarter. But i beg to differ on the revenue as JW medical(not in the calculation)and licencing revenue is too low. I am not an accountant and please highlighted if i am wrong in the assumption
Take note.
?We are very pleased to have received CE Mark approval for our BioMatrix stent and
will immediately implement our strategy to make this product available in the approved
markets. Our growth potential in these markets is very strong, as BioMatrix and NOBORI
will be the only drug-eluting stents currently available which incorporate a
biodegradable polymer coating together with an immunosuppressive drug. Positive
clinical data position the BioMatrix stent system to be a potential break-through
product for patients and physicians,? stated Mr. Yoh-Chie Lu, Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer.
Mr. Lu added, ?We are also pleased with the timing of this approval, as the increasing
complexity of worldwide regulatory requirements will make it even more difficult to
introduce new technologies into the marketplace. We plan to commence a staged
launch of BioMatrix commencing 1 April 2008. The initial stage will be to introduce
BioMatrix through our existing distribution channels. We will expand these channels to
increase geographical coverage during the first half of our fiscal year beginning in April,
2008 and plan a significant ramp up in sales over the second half of our fiscal year.?
?Many years of effort devoted to developing the BioMatrix drug-eluting stent system
have been validated by this approval. We would like to take this opportunity to
recognize the contributions of our people and the collaborative efforts of our licensees,
especially Terumo Corporation, in achieving this milestone. This is truly an historic day
for Biosensors,? concluded Mr. Lu
Some key points noted from a conference call by an individual from another forum.
Revenue guidance is as 100m to 115m
Products/Projected revenue
Critical care
Low end 12 High end 14
Cardiological products
Low end 18 High end 21
Drug eluting stents
Low end 58 High end 66
Licensing fees
Low end 12 High end 14
Total
Low end 100 High end 115
Gross margins ard 55% to 65%
Will still have operating losses for 2009
Biomatrix production will be in latter half of this year
Terumo CE mark is key to penetration to Japan market since Biosensors has only approval to sell bare metal stents in Japan.
It will be marketed and sold its ?BioMatrix? product immediately in selected European countries including German, Italy, Spain and Russia. Other European countries will be added to the list after obtaining additional local regulatory approval. These include UK, Switzerland (6 months) and France (12 months).
The product will also be marketed and sold in several SE Asian countries which acknowledge the CE Mark. These include Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Management also indicated that intend to commence the registration process to obtain the SFDA approvals such that BioMatrix can be sold in China. This is expected to take around 21 months. If approved, Biosensors will have two SFDA approved bioabsorbable DES products in China (BioMatrix and Excel). Company aims to position the products separately to tap both the high-end and low-end markets.
The company will be able to produce DES by itself for the coming 6 months. From what we got from Shandong Weigao, Shandong Weigao will do OEM for Biosensors in the future.
Helena Qiu
Equity Research
Forumer: Will BIG do a NASDAQ listing soon? Any analysis?
The scenario changed from a few months ago. I don't think BIG will go for US listing. BIG don't need cash now, unless they intend to go into USA market alone. But i don't think BIG is prepared to handle the USA market alone. What i think they should do now is to tie up with a USA Medical Device Mafia family to settle the Medical Device Mafia Inc in USA. Its going to be difficult to get FDA approval useless they have a Mafia big brother to take care of regulatory approvals. CE is traditionally a much easier regulatory approval but it took BIG so long....... most likely a collusion by lobbying by some other DES rivals to delay CE approval. It was until the CE really have no other good reasons to delay (owing to top class STEALTH, NOBORI 1 Phase 1 & 2 and NOBORI CORE) that CE gave in. The Mafias won't allow you to just go inside the largest DES market and take away their market share there. They want a cut in your profits but they can protect your business in USA. Most likely scenario is a USA JV to penetrate inside this largest DES market. The USA market is about 40% of global DES market share.
2 months ago, I posted an article on FDA increasing their scrutiny on future DES approvals after Endeavor and Xience's FDA approval. All these are planned before hand to ensure only American MNCs has all the market share in this lucrative USA DES market. BIG will not ignore USA market totally (as it is simply too large to be ignored) and most likely have to join forces with a Mafia family. Im sure there will be no lack of suitors for this JV with BIG. The only issue here is who can give better terms and which Mafia family is more desperate for newer DES weapon (with BIG has) to gain back their home turf.
It could be a JV first, no takeover (BIG becomes independent forever). Or, a JV first, then takeover later (most likely by the USA JV partner), Or immediate takeover.
Cashiertan, you just helped some poor kids trying to survive in some 3rd world countries. Your kind generosity will be will come back to you one day.
If DOW ends positive tonight, this may fuel BIG to cheong to greater heights on Monday :)
Someone mentioned my name :-)? No, I have not dissapeared yet...but religiously reading the posting everyday. I was here the last time to kind of irritate my other half. Not sure what happened to him. Maybe Admin gave him a red card!
Just like most of you, I am vested for long term. Wish all the kind souls here, especially bengster good luck. Must really thanks bengster for his excellent postings...
Alamah, I thought after this afternoon analyst's briefing, SGX will lift the halt. Don know the coy closed half for celebration. Sigh! waited the hold afternoon to grab somemore. Will try again next Mon at 0855hrs. All the best to All my dear friends. Cheers.
well said.. thus.. despite nkf issue.. i continue to donate on a monthly basis.. if we will to pull off bcos of those scam.. de sufferers will continue to suffer.. anyway.. much improvement had been done..
After i read bengster mesage, I just made a donation to World Vision Singapore by surfing their website and find their acct number, Hope that you all wont reduce your donations because of some religious or scams recently.
Just be selective and be careful when donating. do it via their website only or thru fund transfer to them directly.
I dont donate to those who set up "stalls" at the roadside as i know quite a number is scam, however with internet banking, it is easier to donate directly.
Just as Bengster said, Forgive the wrong doers and move on. The real cause of giving to charity supersedes all other minor factors.
The truly suffering n innocent ones is not you, who donated but kana cheated, but those that still truly need your donations, hence i hope you guys can donate part of ur BIG winning to the charity of your choice. Have a BIG heart continue doing charity as it is areadi a big blessing to be born in spore where even the poorest dun starved to death. S'porean are areadi the top 5% richest ppl in the world by assests.
indeed.. i share de same sentiment wif cwwan1.. anyway.. <1 no longer exit.. unless... (touchwood)... product recall..then it will come down.. Thus.. let's look forward for next week..
BIG up I happy, BIG down also happy can accumulate more so in the end still happy. If you believe in BIG long term potential, we will not wavier by the mkt sentiment. Talkonly no need money!kekekeke
