GMG Global   

The Hidden Gem

Based on my entry level I guess...  Was looking at vesting at 0.09.

 

sandbox, How u define high? Based on TA or FA or simply by guts feel?

 

Wanted to vest but think price has gone a little too high now...  sigh... too slow...

 

For those who like TA.....

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GMGG.SI&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=c&p=p,b&a=r14,ss,v&c=

Company background....

http://www.wallstraits.com/main/showstockdata.php?code=590

 

HenryAng570, want to know more about GMG....need to make a small investment first! Local analysts don't know much about plantation business so have to depend on others....but I believe all analsyts will turned experts once GMG delivery good result in the next few results releases!!

http://wrightreports.ecnext.com/coms2/reportdesc_COMPANY_C702B9060

 

seems like very good arguments here..i am putting gmg on my radar..no ammunition at the moment to go in..

 

Thanks for all who contributed...Vested. but need more information to decided if I should buy more.. Keep the information, thoughts and ideas coming!! But not the "bad" post, instead we need to give good post to encourage people to contribute.

 

Price of RSS3- June, 2006
DAY	1	2	5	6	7	8	9	12	13	14	15	16	19	20	21
Price	12463	12161	12342	12480	12534	12600	*	12858	12846	12828	12495	12102	12049	12150	12174

Just a snapshot .....price remain stable!

 

Ya...That is the risk we have to take....but I believe it is worth it!  Did u check my calculations....make sense?

 

Thanks for your views. Do keep coming.  Was trying to know more about the background and profile of GMG. Not much available in the Website. Info available in the SGX is scanty like who are the directors etc.  Btw, juz did a quick search on the political situation. Ivory Coast, somewhere in Africa, was involved in some civil war as recent as 2003.  The country is not spare from famine and unrest I believed.   ....  .....  not sure what is the situation now.....

 

HenryAng570, Agreed with you that there is risk involve, if not GMG wouldn't be going at 9.5c now and I wouldn't use a PE of only 6 in my forecast.

Regarding the working current liabilities are greater than the current assets...I'm not worry at all. Also the 12.5m overdue debts is peanut compare to what GMG can make in the coming years.

Drawing your attention to section 8. Average selling price last year was only $2300 per tons and the company make around 12m last year. Current NR price is around $4000. Annual production had been around 44000 tons over the last few years.  Could you help to work out how much GMG can make in the next 12 months? Also, base on the current NR price, could you estimated how much GMGassets worth now?

Not too worry about political risk too as GMG had been operating there for many many years. I can't recall complete details, but I remember something like the state own certain percentage of the plantation too.

I'm looking at risk vs reward and believe that GMG is still way undervalued! What is your thoughts?

 

This thread also caught my attention cos it is known that rubber prices are in the initial uptrend. Synthetic rubber, made from oil by products, are getting too expensive...so there is a switch back to NR. This is driving up demand for NR and hence its price. Increasing NR output will take some time as rubber trees take about 3-5 years to be matured enough to tap its latex....i.e long lead time to increase supply.....much like crude oil.

Like HenryAng570, I also checked thru the financials of GMG......their P&L looks great but am not comfortable with their balance sheet. Also note that some substantial shareholders sold 100m shares in April 06.

As to whether they need to submit quarterly results, I am not sure. When Qly reporting was implemented a few years ago, it was required of Cos with mkt cap >$75mil. Although Co. current mkt cap currently exceeds this, they are still not required to do Qly reporting if their mkt cap was <$75mil at the time the rule took effect. 

I would wait awhile, perhaps when 1H 06 results are out before making a decision on this counter........until then wait and see...and keep on radar screen.

 

Since there are so much discussion on GMG. Juz glanced thru the financial statements (Dec 05 - by rite there should be one in Mar 06) of GMG that are posted at the SGX websites.

It seems that the Co's current liabilities are greater than the current assets. The actual cash the Co has as at 31 Dec 05 is only 800K. The 6m in FD is pledged to a bank. There rest of CA are in inventory and AR.   It still has an "overdue" loan of 12.5m owing to the JM of EML. Co does not have enough working capital.  Would anyone like to comments on the financial situation of the Co?

Secondly, the main revenue generatiing assets are located in Ivory Coast and one more place.  As highlighted by the Mgt, the profitability depends very much on 2 factors:  the weather and the political situation of Ivory Coast among other factors like currency risk.  ......  Wold like to hear your views.

Thanks



 

 

sandbox, I looking at 2 to 5 years. Based on my research, it seemed that NR price will remain at a high level till 2010. Unless the economy really slow down significantly, GMG should benefit from the high NR price. If we do a projection from today NR price, GMG FY07 profit should be able to hit above 70m easily. That work out to be around 3c per share! Of cause, that assume NR price remain at current high level for the next 18 months! Rubber company usually trade with a PE >>10. Assume we use PE 6 for GMG....the FV should be 18c! Almost 100% upside! Correct me if I make any mistake in my calculation...

 

Hi Bullrun,

How long is long term?  Am I right to say that contra means buy and sell within 3 days and not having to pay the cash if the price of the stock goes up?

Thanks.

 

Volume increase slightly this morning but still too low for contra player.. At the moment, GMG is more suitable for long term investors.

 

n its in singapore dollars hence the difference in price..

 

i think the gmg us$ one is delisted..u can only trade the gmg one..

 

what that GMG counter? (SGD)

The GMG US delist? please shared some light.

 

like that tyres price also up ?? better don't drive ..