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Forex Junction

everyone claim to be expert in FX. the point is, no one can corner the market.

i think u should buy more books to read up on fx fundamentals.

cheers 

 

Hi,

did any of you went to the talk by Stella Robinson last Friday ? I understand she is conducting a 2 days training 3rd week of May.

Any body has any experience with her ? Her knowledge and her capability in Forex trading ?

 

Thanks,

 

USD: Commodities, equities and Europe
EUR: Inflation falls as sentiment plummets
GBP: BoE's credit hopes
CHF: KOF weak
IDR: Grease is the word
PLN: Unchanged Rates
BRL: well deserved investment grade upgrade
MXN: BANXICO changes inflation forecasts


USD: Commodities, Equities and Europe
The US dollar resumed strengthening across the board Thursday in New York. The 24-hour loss in EURUSD summed to 1.2% at the 1.5437 low; the range high was 1.5666. USDJPY moved from 103.50 to 104.59. With US equities poised to trade higher, we see the dollar gaining more strength, also against the safe haven CHF and JPY. The S&P 500 overcame 1400, a key resistance level. Rising stocks and, hence, waning downside risk to global growth bode well for risk-sensitive currencies such as the dollar. Commodity prices continued to correct lower. The selloff in gold reached $849 and oil $110. Our commodity strategists believe that these selloffs could continue amid positioning risks; there's also possible weakness in demand for heating oil during May.
US data brought the April manufacturing ISM index at 48.6 (cons: 48.0, UBSe 47.5). The level, our economists argue, continues to signal contraction in manufacturing, but at a modest pace compared with typical economy-wide recession periods. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, to 380k (cons and UBSe: 365k). Ahead today, non-farm payrolls take centre stage. We expect the employment report to add to the evidence that a consumer-led recession is underway. In the current stage of the cycle, payroll gains risk being overstated initially. Hence we are not only forecasting -100k (market -75k, prev -80k) but we also forecast a 0.2% rise in the unemployment rate to 5.3% (from 5.1%, market 5.2%).
Despite US data risk, we still think the dollar should do well as long as a shallow recession remains the core scenario. With markets losing confidence in economic resilience in Europe and the rest of the G10, policy-rate expectations will likely move in favour of the dollar. Improved risk sentiment should also benefit the dollar, and weaker commodity prices should also help to alleviate pressure on the greenback. We remain short EURUSD from 1.5660, targeting 1.5200.


EUR: Inflation falls as sentiment plummets
The Eurozone's CPI estimate for April came in at 3.3% on Wednesday, below market expectations of 3.4% and was the first decline since August last year. A weaker print was expected after the sharp drop in German and Spanish inflation, though our economists note that the firm number points to CPI holding up in other European countries. The ECB will need to see inflation actually trending lower before signalling an ease and markets remain doubtful that any cuts are feasible this year, but falling sentiment may prompt the central bank to follow the Fed and BoE to cut to contain economic deterioration. Sentiment indicators across the Eurozone came in weak overnight. The business climate index dropped to 0.44 from 0.80 in March (cons. 0.70), economic sentiment fell to 97 from 99.6 (cons. 99). Industrial and services sentiment fell, while only consumer sentiment was flat. Weaker national sentiment readings over the past month had already pointed to such an outcome and calls for monetary accommodation from the ECB will only grow up ahead. ECB rhetoric will likely remain biased to the hawkish side in the short term, as inflation expectations have failed to come down and input costs remain high. The European Commission stated overnight that inflation data should be treated with caution, subscribing to the ECB's current stance. However, more disappointments in zone-wide and national PMI readings due next week may cause the ECB to further shift its language at its policy meeting, and stress downside growth risks, rather than price stability, will be the key focus for the central bank up ahead. Europe was closed on May 1.



GBP: BoE's credit hopes
The Bank of England published its semi-annual Financial Stability Report overnight. Its assessment of the financial situation cast an upbeat tone stating that the costs of the crisis will likely overstate ultimate losses. John Gieve, BoE Deputy Governor of Financial Stability noted that "while downside risks remain, the most likely path ahead is that confidence and risk appetite will return gradually in the coming months". Over the past week the spread between sterling 3m Libor and OIS rates has narrowed to slightly above 91bp from 96bp in mid-April, and the market still remains very sensitive to negative news from the financial sector. Overall deterioration in confidence as well as the fallout in asset prices suggest downside risks to already weakening economy. But higher inflation and rising inflation concerns prevent the BoE to cut rates at a faster pace. On Thursday, April manufacturing PMI survey showed a marginal decrease in the index coming in at 51.0 down from 51.3 in March, and was above market's expectations of 50.8. The detail of the survey showed the output prices balance rose to the highest level since the survey publication started, while input prices rose to the second highest level. We are looking for the market to shift focus to a less upbeat outlook in the Eurozone, which will help EURGBP to continue to retreat. Our 1m and 3m EURGBP forecasts are 0.78 and 0.76.



CHF: KOF weak
At 1.20 (cons. 1.48), the KOF leading indicator for April came in considerably below market expectations on Wednesday, and last month's reading was revised down to 1.40 from 1.54 previously. Our economists note that the poor reading was mainly driven by the sub-index of the credit industry. Overall the latest reading confirms the outlook of faltering growth momentum in Switzerland, and our economists expect the SNB to start easing rates by Q3'08. Going forward, we expect inflation to ease, enabling the central bank to employ such a departure from its on-hold policy stance. We expect recent improvement in risk appetite to continue, keeping the franc under pressure. However, EURCHF gains will likely be capped as further weakening in the Eurozone will undermine the euro. Our short term EURCHF forecasts are 1.61 over 1m and 1.58 over 3m.

 

[Market Briefs]
* Eurozone Apr HICP 3.3% y/y vs prev 3.6%. 3.4% Exp
* Eurozone Mar Unemployment 7.1% y/y unch fm Feb. Record lows
* Eurozone Apr Economic Sentiment 97.1 vs prev 99.6. 99.0 Exp
* Eurozone Apr Business Climate 0.44 vs prev 0.79 (r). 0.8 Exp
* Eurozone Apr Consumer Sentiment unch at -12.0. -12.6 Exp
* UK Apr Nationwide house prices -1.1% m/m, -1.0% y/y vs prev -0.7%(r)/1.1%
* German Apr Unemployment Rate 7.9% vs prev 7.8%
* German Apr Unemployment change -7k vs prev -55.5k. -40k Exp 
* Italian Apr HICP 0.5% m/m, 3.5% y/y vs prev 1.6% & 3.6% 
* Swiss April KoF falls to 1.20 vs prev 1.40
* Norway Feb Unemployment 2.4% vs prev 2.3%. 2.3% Exp 
* Norway Mar Retail Sales -0.4% m/m, 3.3% y/y vs prev 1.7% & 5.6%. +0.3% Exp
* Eurogroup Juncker: ECB Independence is a good thing - German radio
* ECB Trichet: Eurozone economy was quite robust in Q1 2008
* BoJ Gov Sharakawa: Japanese bank losses likely to be bigger than forecasts
* News: BG (UK) offers $12bln for Australia"s Origin Energy - FT.com
* News: UK House prices suffer first annual fall in 12 years - FT.com
* News: Turkish C/B talk of disinflation but threatens hike
* News: Slovak Crown posts another all time high vs Euro at 32.10
* News: Nowotny set to succeed ECB"s Liebscher - sources - Guardian.co.uk


[Looking Ahead - Economic Data]
* 11:00 Apr 26 MBA Refinancing Index (prev -14.2%)
* 12:15 Apr    ADP National Employment Report (mkt -63k, prev +8k)
* 12:30 Q1 Employment Cost Index (mkt 0.8% q/q, prev 0.8% q/q)
* 12:30 Q1 GDP (advance) (mkt 0.3% AR, prev 0.6% AR)
* 12:30 Q1 Core PCE Price Idx (advance) (mkt 2.7% AR, prev 2.5% AR)
* 13:45 Apr    Chicago PMI (mkt 47.5, prev 48.2)
* 14:00 Retail Sales revisions
* 14:30 Apr 26    EIA petroleum inventories

[Looking Ahead - Events]
* 14:00 Two-day FOMC meeting resumes
* 14:00 Polish MPC rate verdict (expected to leave rates on hold)
* 17:00 TSLF announcement
* 18:15 FOMC issues policy statement (25 bps cut expected)

 

To prevent market break, I put long and short.  No matter which one is opened ... money will come

 

long usd

short euro

square 10pm tonite

 

Hi CashierTan, thanks for your information.   Probably there is something else in their regulation make people say it.  I will pay attention for this issue.  My MIG account has done yesterday.  My first brutal position earn arround 300 pips in one night.  I put three positions.  One was EURUSD, others was USDJPY.

And now, I'm requesting money withdrawal from them ... will let you know once there is a issue. 

 

crownforex uses 1 mt4 and has 1 pip spread for major pair. what is ggod abt crown other than the spread? thanks in advanced. I am pretty happy with  northern and saxobank so far. 

 

Hi i didnt know they provide metatrader but what i knew is what i heard from others. 

 

Hi CashierTan, MIG is providing Metatrader too.  The reason I choose them, they offer me 2 pips spread for USDJPY.  But after I know about crownforex from leetonz, I'm considering to open crownforex. 

The use of having a lot of Broker, allow me to experiment with alot of strategies, or find new strategy. 

I'm practicing 8 strategies right now.  Primarily on EURUSD and USDJPY.

cashiertan      ( Date: 28-Apr-2008 20:55) Posted: MIG platform not much ppl like  consider Saxo singapore good enough if ur acct abv 100k, can consider for financial acct

 

At 11 PM tonight .. my email will be sent. I present to you one of the most robust money engine of mine...  

Please use it for yourself.

 

Hi Techsys,

Pls keep me on your mailing list. Your forex strategies are way too interesting to be spam ;-).

My mail's at cwquah@yahoo.co.uk.

techsys      ( Date: 28-Apr-2008 11:22) Posted: Hi seed, I'm glad you have made your decision.  I'm focusing my trade in forex because of its liquidity.  I have some amount of money trapped in stock, and until now, I'm still waiting until market let them free ...   Base on money management I arrange, I will show you how to manage risk as low as possible and from 250 USD .. you will have income for 2500 USD / month at least after 6 months.  The things you need to practice are patience, ability to observe the market, good trading behaviour and mentality. Btw, all bro ... last time I got arround 19 people likes to have email from me.  But only few of them actively sent me email.  I don't want to be a spammer to your mailbox.  Please for bro who want to receive my next Forex Setup (Trending Strategy) ... post your email here ... for bro who has noted me or actively sent email to me, I have put you on my list.  Until now .. i have only arround 11 emails on my list.

 

MIG platform not much ppl like

 consider Saxo singapore good enough

if ur acct abv 100k, can consider for financial acct
 

 

Hi LeTonz,  Thanks for your great information.  I will open one too if i have extra money . But the problem with Switzerland based forex broker is, they need all kind of verification legally. 

You can go to CityHall.  Need to pay arround 50 SGD.  Make sure you make a good copy of your document.  If possible buy one lajer printer and scan your document with the highest resolution as possible ..

 

 

crown forex it another more secure forex provider in Switzerland.pips size is 1 pips.anybody has any suggestion where can i get a notarized copy of my passport/IC and what is the charges involved. http://www.crownforex.com/

 

Hi CashierTan, I'm agree with you.  For me, I will use Singapore broker for money more than 25K.  As I know all FX broker in Singapore will be under MAS.  I can be wrong, someone who know more about this please validate.

I got this information when I opened my account with SaxoBank.  They explained to me, what accredited FX broker is.  But, since I have some friends using FXDD with capital more than 400k, I dare to say FXDD can be trusted.  But like you say, such huge broker also can get bankrupt. :)

For more secure one you can please use MIG.  This broker is located in switzerland.  I will give review to you.  A bit complicated to create an account, and they have some great advantage for some particular pair. I'm opening one, but until now haven't done yet ... still in processing ...

 

if u are going to have more than 20k in your account. i would suggest u get a segregated account which you owned the account you deposit the money. Refco, such huge broker also can go bankrupt. i suggest better find some account protected by law. 

 You can try some banks forex account when ur account is above 50k usd. they dun charge pips spread but commission of 0.6 pips or less per pair. yes, even less common currency pair.. u save alot in long run.
 

 

Broker Review - FXDD

For you who has a lot of money and hunger for more suphisticated trading platform, you may seek FXDD for help. 

FXDD is offer a different kind of platforms.  They offer you MetaTrader, FXDD Trader, FXDD Auto and Power Trader.  I'm using FXDD Trader.  If you have 50k USD, you can try Power Trader.  You will be connected to more flexible market zone.  And you will pay the fee base on volume trading. 

Money can be deposited by Wire-transfer, Credit Card or PayPal.  Minimum deposit is 500 USD for mini Account.  5000 USD for standard account.  Process will take 2-3 days.  You need to fill the online form and send your NRIC, Passport or Driving License. Since this is US-based broker (New Your) ... you will feel a bit slow ... compare with SaxoBank.  But overall .. service is great.

If you like to do pattern analysis, FXDD is the one you can choose ...

About withdrawing money, only cost you min 25 USD for every transfer.  Only transfer to bank account which has name exactly the same as you FXDD account.

 

Hi CathyImg, you can give your email secretly by click here.

 

 

 

Hi CathyImg, Welcome to this forex thread.   This thread was first created by our Respective Grand Forex Trader Mr. Cashier Tan.   I just don't want to see this thread die.  So, I actively send article here ... .  I am a forex lover but can't betray my previous lover, stock ... so this thread will be the tools for me to come alive between them. 

I won't create a blog, have no time to manage it.