SinoGrandnes   

Sino Grandness - a growth stock with low PE

Time: 1:54PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: SinoGrandnes(JS5)
Signal: Support - Broken with High Volume
Last Done: $1.3

 

Last:1.32     Vol:140k     -0.07

low volume done so far.. more downside to come if CMZ shorters switch from CMZ to sino..

next target Yamada..

 

 

Sino Grandness

Investment Theme Intact

 

2QFY13 results as good as expected. Sino Grandness reported a set of good results. Revenue grew by 27% yoy to RMB595m and net profit grew by 24% yoy to RMB103m. 1H net profit accounted for 44% of our full year forecast. We maintain our earnings forecast unchanged as we believe that the company can do even better in 2H13 due to acceleration in beverage sales. The biggest catalyst for the stock, the spinoff of Garden Fresh, seems intact. Maintain BUY and target price of SGD1.89, based on SOTP valuation.

Garden Fresh: RMB250m profit target should be achievable. Beverage sector (" Garden Fresh" ) continues to perform well with revenue up 48% yoy in 2Q. 1H beverage revenue achieved RMB585m. Although the company does not disclose the net profit for beverage sector, we estimate the number to be around RMB110m. In our view, full year profit target of RMB250m should be achievable as we assume stronger beverage sales in the second half of the year, thanks to the summer season and the new distribution network.

Further expansion of distribution network. Sino Grandness announced a few days ago that it has secured access into two big convenience store operators, which in aggregate have more than 6,000 convenience stores in China. With better brand name awareness via increasing investment in A& P and the expansion in distribution network, we are optimistic on the growth outlook of the company in long term.

Domestic canned food set to support the growth after Garden Fresh spinoff. Domestic canned products (mainly consist of various canned fruits) continues its growth momentum in 2Q with revenue up 34% yoy. Management tries to leverage on current distribution network to introduce more products going forward. We expect this division to deliver 30% p.a. growth in the next three years to provide the growth engine for the remaining business after Garden Fresh spinoff.

Investment story intact. Our main investment story on Sino Grandness, the value unlocking via Garden Fresh spinoff, seems intact. The next step will be appointing investment bankers, which we expect to finish in the next two months. BUY maintained. Sino Grandness ? Summary Earnings Table
FYE Dec (CNY m)	FY11		FY12	FY13F		FY14F		FY15F
Revenue	1019.7		1640.3	2427.7		2997.2		3522.1
EBITDA	231.9		427.8	564.7		692.0		796.8
Recurring Net Profit	151.5		289.1	392.2		483.5		556.2
Recurring Dilutive EPS (CNY)	0.5		1.0	1.3		1.6		1.9
EPS growth (%)	29.2		90.9	35.7		23.3		15.0
DPS (CNY)	0.04		0.00	0.09		0.12		0.13
PER (x)	14.3		7.5	5.5		4.5		3.9
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.6		5.6	4.2		2.9		2.3
Div Yield (%)	0.5		0.0	1.3		1.6		1.8
P/BV (x)	3.9		2.6	1.6		1.0		0.8
Net debt/(cash)	76.7		238.0	209.6		-181.1		-335.4
ROE (%)	31.2		41.3	36.4		28.4		23.7
ROA (%)	21.4		26.7	24.3		22.4		20.7
Consensus Net Profit		392.3			482.7		601.5

 

profits up 24%..

S/NCompany NameQ/HY/FYCurrency, UnitsRevenueNet Profit
CurrentPreviousChange (%)CurrentPreviousChange (%)

Sino Grandness2QRMB M595.2 470.7 26.5 103.0 83.1 24.0

 

Sino Grandness Food Industry Group Limited announced positive developments related to its on-going expansion plan for both its own-branded 鲜 绿 园 ® (?Garden Fresh?) juices and 振 鹏 达 ® (?Grandness?) canned food products for the PRC market. Further to the success of securing significant indicative orders and new distributors for northern provinces in PRC after the Chengdu Trade Exhibition as announced on 15 April 2013, Sino Grandness also made major breakthrough at the retail points for the southern and south-western markets. In addition to being rolled out into Hongqi and Meiyijia convenience stores, Grandness canned food products? distributors have made significant progress in terms of network expansion over the past one year as the Company in recent months also successfully added hundreds of retail points by rolling out Grandness canned food products into other reputable retail channels such as Walmart, 大 润 发 and 中 百 仓 储 in provinces such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hunan, Hubei and Shanghai. (Closing Price S$0.015, 1.053%)

 

Anything below $1.20 is a buy.

If falls below 1dollar a must buy if u still believe the ipo story.

Issue is if the growth rate can be maintain upoto ipo date although manipulation of financial data is a given.

If u are investing in millions, wiser to go to china n do a actual survey with retailers n mega marts for sales reality check.

tea444u      ( Date: 01-Aug-2013 13:31) Posted: hi can you tell me what is the next support level for sino ? FearValueGreed      ( Date: 31-Jul-2013 22:50) Posted: Stock split is generally good for stock as it becomes cheaper for retailers to buy. Also no impact to eps . It shd be good for long run. However this one will cheong to 190 eventuality . Awaiting to reload to lower price. The IPO garden fresh that would always trigger adrenaline. Just scope when it hit support level. But the correcg support.

 

nobody likes to drink fruit juice anymore.. :)

 

China slow growth???

broadfeet      ( Date: 06-Aug-2013 09:40) Posted: what happen sudden drop to 1.31...ani news not vested

 

what happen sudden drop to 1.31...ani news

not vested 

 

hi can you tell me what is the next support level for sino ?

FearValueGreed      ( Date: 31-Jul-2013 22:50) Posted: Stock split is generally good for stock as it becomes cheaper for retailers to buy. Also no impact to eps . It shd be good for long run. However this one will cheong to 190 eventuality . Awaiting to reload to lower price. The IPO garden fresh that would always trigger adrenaline. Just scope when it hit support level. But the correcg support. tea444u      ( Date: 31-Jul-2013 16:40) Posted: hi there.... what is your view on the stock split sino has proposed? thanks...veste

 

also got hope of a special dividend ? once we get more stocks then gif dividends of 8 cents ( expected by maybank) then we all happy loh....

 

Stock split is generally good for stock as it becomes cheaper for retailers to buy.

Also no impact to eps .

It shd be good for long run.
However this one will cheong to 190 eventuality .

Awaiting to reload to lower price.
The IPO garden fresh that would always trigger adrenaline. Just scope when it hit support level.
But the correcg support.

tea444u      ( Date: 31-Jul-2013 16:40) Posted: hi there.... what is your view on the stock split sino has proposed? thanks...vested FearValueGreed      ( Date: 24-Jul-2013 20:38) Posted: Today miss my target by two bids. Today shd hit. Everyday raise flag by 1 bid. Surely will reach

 

hi there.... what is your view on the stock split sino has proposed? thanks...vested

FearValueGreed      ( Date: 24-Jul-2013 20:38) Posted: Today miss my target by two bids. Today shd hit. Everyday raise flag by 1 bid. Surely will reach

 

Today miss my target by two bids. Today shd hit. Everyday raise flag by 1 bid. Surely will reach

 

Will hit 160 tmr. TA very text book. Today sell off 1/3 holdings. Tmr will flush out the rest at 1.59

Kekeke

 

Will hit 1.60 very soon.
After breaking base.

Need to prepare for aug -sep stormy season. So do not buy in those period unless TA very appealing.

 

This one looks like a no brainer from a 6month horizon.

Only issue is a S chip n its ipo for garden fresh may result bloating of figures towards listing.

Scary if it happens just when u imagines all previous saga comes back to my mind.

However goldman sach is in the picture so maybe not that bad.

Anyway will consider buying at 137 . Short term looks like a mini base is forming like a FUP ready to charge.

 

'an internatioanlly recognised stock exchnage'??? could it be the NEW yORK one? why so secretive? maybe one big giant one in stockholm???

 

Only $1.44     :-) 

 

Last:1.48     Vol:924k     +0.05

keep on chionging after the IPO announcement