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Prepare for risk of double-dip recession

hmm u apply this to STI index chart also?

hhahaha....

iPunter      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 20:58) Posted: The bull trap in Genting last week is a perfect example of chart 'manipulation'... This is because all fund managers' eyes are glued to the chart... It was rather deceptive, because just before the trading halt, the price did break out of the resistance thus creating many maximum bulls... Then these maximum bullish bulls were disappointed when they lost heavily on resumption of trading... keepnosecrets      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 16:07) Posted: Mr. Rich Tan is the real expert in TA

 

The bull trap in Genting last week is a perfect example of chart 'manipulation'...

This is because all fund managers' eyes are glued to the chart...

It was rather deceptive, because just before the trading halt, the price did break out of the resistance thus creating many maximum bulls...

Then these maximum bullish bulls were disappointed when they lost heavily on resumption of trading...

keepnosecrets      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 16:07) Posted: Mr. Rich Tan is the real expert in TA. keepnosecrets      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 16:05) Posted: Sorry Kel, I no expert, but just learning to interprete the charts.  But charts can be manupulated, so I don't put 100 percent on them.  Most of the counters I picked not from charts are making money, but I am not saying charts are no good.  Sometimes they do help in confirming a decision.  Like recently a friend say buy this, but when I saw the chart, I did not buy and it was going down. Lucky for me, right?

 

I guess it's best to divesify your portfolio into equities, bonds and commodities.

Perhaps at this point of time, I would think a proportion of not more than 30% should be in equities, maintain about 30% in bonds and the remaining in commodities (such as gold, crude palm oil, crude oil etc).

It seems like people are running away to commodities such as gold as there are raising uncertainities in the current market ~ many predicted a correction of ~ 15~20% but the question is what if it doesnt comes so soon? Market may correct marginally before the reveal of 3Q09 earning results, and I see no good reason for a major correction to come soon especially with the macro-economic data improving or in-line with consensus. Instead 3Q09 earnings results, may even be a booster to push the equities higher as companies become more efficient on cost-saving. And if this happens, I suspect that funds and other retailer investors will flood in to buy in to push it even higher.

The only reason which I can think of so far is the weakening dollar which I feel may be an hinderance to exporting economy such as Japan. Another reason which may cause the market to correct drastically will be the sudden withdrawal of government stimulus.

Ultimately, it's about risk versus opportunity cost. Diversifying your portfolio and adjusting the various weightage of the investments will likely to help you to reduce your risk exposure and possibly optimise opportunity cost.

Since we are not able to predict when the market will correct again (with all the whatever analysis, sometimes also no use). Choose stocks with genuine value, it doesnt necessary means it must be dirt-cheap now, but a valuable company will likely to withhold its position under tough condition and during blooming seasons, generate attractive revenue ~ avoid speculative counters (and counters which generate 1-time off positive results and share prices fly like no-one business).

Just my 2-cent worth. Hope it is helpful.

wongkz      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 11:39) Posted: hi all, i am an absolute newbie when it comes to this game. my concern, on a practical aspect about the possibilities of this double dip or W shaped thing is, wat should we do about it? say, i ve 10k. should i invest now? or hold back. if i enter the mkt now, if it slides, loss will incur, at least temporarily. but if i didnt, should the "bull" continue, i will miss my chance. is tis an issue of dilemma and opportunity cost?

 

Mr. Rich Tan is the real expert in TA.

keepnosecrets      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 16:05) Posted: Sorry Kel, I no expert, but just learning to interprete the charts.  But charts can be manupulated, so I don't put 100 percent on them.  Most of the counters I picked not from charts are making money, but I am not saying charts are no good.  Sometimes they do help in confirming a decision.  Like recently a friend say buy this, but when I saw the chart, I did not buy and it was going down. Lucky for me, right?

 

Sorry Kel, I no expert, but just learning to interprete the charts.  But charts can be manupulated, so I don't put 100 percent on them.  Most of the counters I picked not from charts are making money, but I am not saying charts are no good.  Sometimes they do help in confirming a decision.  Like recently a friend say buy this, but when I saw the chart, I did not buy and it was going down. Lucky for me, right?

 

so u are a TA expert?

well, i know someone a TA expert, he also lose big during 07 sell down...

still prefer fishing at the bottom and hold it a period of times then sell...

now, market is very crazy...well, i still think that market need to be slow down or correction for its better next bull run...

so i am not going to chase any stock now...

keepnosecrets      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 15:58) Posted: Many counters I am having are still losing.  Recentl purchases also lose money, honestly. Livermore      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 15:45) Posted: Don't be surprised that even some traders still lose money in bull market

 

Many counters I am having are still losing.  Recentl purchases also lose money, honestly.

Livermore      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 15:45) Posted: Don't be surprised that even some traders still lose money in bull market

 

People who speculate the market are normally short termers unless they got stuck then became longtermers, waiting losing stocks to come back to the original buy prices or above.  The real long termers are uncles and aunties who were given some shares and never opened a brokerage account (They do have CDP accts during the offer of Singtel shares many years back.) I know of many of these people and of course they made some money from the singtel shares, and only singtel shares.  My sister alone had her windfall of alloted shares, loyalty shares and dividends,, but still did not want to sell even up to today. 

 

Don't be surprised that even some traders still lose money in bull market

 

Here I agree with Kelly. We are in a new cycle. There is nothing wrong keeping long term and just know when to sell and don't be surprised those who  bought at March low and keep long term make more than some who trade too much aftee 4 years. There will of course be some who trade and make more than those who keep long term and those are the sharp ones

 

kellychang      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 10:35) Posted: well...i dun agree on it... i know an uncle...he bought singtel when it was 1 dollars...and sgx when it was just 1 or 2 dollars...but he sold it during 07 bull run.... see, how much he earn? iPunter      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 10:21) Posted: Very often, long-term investors grow old while waiting and waiting long long (years and decades) for their stocks to grow and grow. But before they can sell, they would have gone very old... And maybe by then, they still wouldn't sell because their stocks have become so low. Anyway, found this thread mentioning retirees... Click

 

hi all, i am an absolute newbie when it comes to this game.

my concern, on a practical aspect about the possibilities of this double dip or W shaped thing is, wat should we do about it?

say, i ve 10k. should i invest now? or hold back. if i enter the mkt now, if it slides, loss will incur, at least temporarily. but if i didnt, should the "bull" continue, i will miss my chance.

is tis an issue of dilemma and opportunity cost?

 

cheongwee ... i am very curious ....what do u base on for ur 'predictions' ... if TA isn't ur cup of tea....just curious ..

(until the last few postings ,  i was under the impression that u were a male ... hahaha .. excuse my ignorance ..wishing u a successful surgery and speedy recovery ..)

cheongwee      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 02:37) Posted: It is not truth...my trading method is better than TA..i dont throw to the wind.... i call a sell on tiong woon and li heng correctly...look at li heng sold 40c look at tiong woon,,,sold 81c...but this one still got power..hanging on..i want to see how long..if it is for real i might get back in, but now it is a bit tricky..i will sideline..i am patient.. SAR sold.. 213..208..not far off...i dont thk i can do so well withTA... abv, no bullshit..i can find my post and paste here for all to see....if u want..

 

well...i dun agree on it...

i know an uncle...he bought singtel when it was 1 dollars...and sgx when it was just 1 or 2 dollars...but he sold it during 07 bull run....

see, how much he earn?

iPunter      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 10:21) Posted: Very often, long-term investors grow old while waiting and waiting long long (years and decades) for their stocks to grow and grow. But before they can sell, they would have gone very old... And maybe by then, they still wouldn't sell because their stocks have become so low. Anyway, found this thread mentioning retirees... Click

 

Very often, long-term investors grow old while waiting and waiting long long (years and decades) for their stocks to grow and grow.

But before they can sell, they would have gone very old...

And maybe by then, they still wouldn't sell because their stocks have become so low.

Anyway, found this thread mentioning retirees... Click

 

Have a safe surgery and a speedy recovery. We should not argue furiously in this website. Keep a cool head. Debate is ok.

cheongwee      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 03:03) Posted: A_K Francis...thks ..but i understand u always memtion u like beer, but pls do so with limit..too much beer is bad for liver...i thk i myself have too much of a gd thing (wine)...so now is pay back time.. my surgeon is an expert in opening ppl heart..i hope he dont play share...if his counter is down , i will be down also...u know down to where ...hoh...... AK_Francis      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 01:06) Posted: Oh no, dear CW, sorry to hear that u need to face 2nd rd of surgical knifes n scissors. Ak utmost blessing to u to get well after ds last ops. Best regards.

 

Double depression?


In these bad economic times, we have the casino resorts looming in the horizon...

There's never a better time to learn to punt!... hehehe..


__________________________

My favoirite website is   here

 

i thk and hope Monday will be good day for market...being the 1st day of the week...and with dow now only 16 pts down...

 

A_K Francis...thks ..but i understand u always memtion u like beer, but pls do so with limit..too much beer is bad for liver...i thk i myself have too much of a gd thing (wine)...so now is pay back time..

my surgeon is an expert in opening ppl heart..i hope he dont play share...if his counter is down , i will be down also...u know down to where ...hoh......

AK_Francis      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 01:06) Posted: Oh no, dear CW, sorry to hear that u need to face 2nd rd of surgical knifes n scissors. Ak utmost blessing to u to get well after ds last ops. Best regards.   cheongwee      ( Date: 12-Sep-2009 00:45) Posted: kellychang...you know this word "irrational exuberence"...a famous word by Al;an Greenspan.. we dont know what is in front...but some time this market rally can go on and on and on... i shd be worry...i am going for an operation next January...TA for cheongfwee is point down to hell...hahahah...i am joking but really. i am going for an opreration....that is my second one..at Mt E. wish me luck...

 

and as to Larry Edelson ..i generally agree with him this rd on gold and the dollar...

but i have been following Weiss research..it is founded by Martin Weiss...Larry is working for them.,there are a few of them also...like Mike Larson, Bryan Rich..Claus Vogt..being one of the lastest to join..

once i e-mail them, asking why one said this one will soar while the other say no....they reply saying that they have their individual opinion...that all....so listen to who???..no reply..

they are all cntradictory...Larry have been wrong a lot of time...on gold...Claus Vogt was bearish not all the while, show us all the bearish chart, but now turn bullish. all of a sudden..

i am still of the view that gold is not ready to soar big time...stock and gold to come down in fall...and dollar to soar...gd luck...

 

It is not truth...my trading method is better than TA..i dont throw to the wind....

i call a sell on tiong woon and li heng correctly...look at li heng sold 40c

look at tiong woon,,,sold 81c...but this one still got power..hanging on..i want to see how long..if it is for real i might get back in, but now it is a bit tricky..i will sideline..i am patient..

SAR sold.. 213..208..not far off...i dont thk i can do so well withTA...

abv, no bullshit..i can find my post and paste here for all to see....if u want..