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Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend · Post: 
No reason to be spooked by October this year
Commentary: But markets should be wary of Iran
By Robert Maltbie
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- While some might get spooked by an often-volatile October, signs are that the markets are in strong shape.
Just the facts: My indicators are as bullish as they have been since March 2003, preceding a 26% upside surge in equity averages that year. Four out of five of our market indicators are bullish and one is neutral.
Let's start with the bear case:
The market is fully valued at 17 times earnings and it is too late to get in the market. But price-to-earnings is a backward-looking measure. If we use projected forward estimates, a different picture emerges. If we value the S&P 500 using 2010 estimates, which call for a 20% or greater increase in earnings, we find a more reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 14, far below 19 where the market topped in 2007.
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.
• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
• Eliades: March lows may come back
• Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks
As for our neutral indicators, they are "sentiment" indicators showing that volatility and possibly fear have greatly diminished. This is evidenced by the CBOE volatility index /quotes/comstock/20m!i:vix (VIX 28.27, +2.66, +10.39%) which has retreated to 23 from a high of more than 80 a year ago when we were in free fall. Offsetting this is a bullish AAII pundit survey showing investment advisors are bearish, perhaps bracing for "seasonal harshness," by 39% bulls to 45% bears.
Our remaining indicators are all currently solidly bullish -- technical indicators, monetary data, liquidity measures and valuations. Our Ouiji board swigglies and charts show positive, lead by a strong breadth and upside volume that is recently supported by expanding new 52-week high-to-low ratio.
A final anchor of positive support is that the Dow, the S&P and Nasdaq all have broken decisively above 200-day moving averages and held their ground. These are characteristics of a market with healthy internals, good days are better and exceed bad days and more stocks are starting to participate.
Monetary Indicators: This is our most powerful market force, also called "Don't fight the Fed." Money stock is expanding at near 8% annual rate. The real rate is higher considered against the backdrop of a deflating economy which is what we have had for nearly two years now.
The yield curve is also very steep and positive in its slope. This is a powerful 1-2 punch for the market, the fed is pumping money into the markets and economy and rates are staying low. These two factors have been important catalysts of every major bull market since 1920.
Liquidity or the directionality of money flows is another bullish sign that is just getting started. After freezing up with the cataclysmic events hitting markets over the last year, corporate M&A is rebounding, stock buybacks are returning, and money is starting to flow back into equity funds, including exchange-traded and hedge funds.
Big-time mergers by Walt Disney Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!dis/quotes/nls/dis (DIS 27.46, +0.10, +0.37%) , Abbott Labs /quotes/comstock/13*!abt/quotes/nls/abt (ABT 49.47, +0.79, +1.62%) and Dell Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!dell/quotes/nls/dell (DELL 15.26, +0.12, +0.79%) are starting up again, as these and buybacks have pulsed to nearly $50 billion in September. Meanwhile, money markets have experienced a $54 billion outflow lately.
These add up to more than $100 billion in possible additional demand for equities. Offsets of insider selling and IPO issuance although increasing, are still at non-threatening or neutral levels.
Last but not least, we must not forget valuations. This is also bullish both on absolute and relative levels. While we are at the onset of a new recovery in earnings, more stable indicators such as market capitalization-to-GDP and price-to-sales provide evidence of reasonably cheap valuations.
The market is at a 20% discount to GDP and relative parity to sales. In 2000, the market traded at 1.8 times GDP and the price-to-sales ratio was 2.3. It seems we've worked off a lot of excess over the last 10 years.
Our relative valuation measures are positive lead by an earnings yield to quality corporate bond yield ratio of 1.2, a spread last see in 1982. Stockowners are getting paid or reinvesting back in the company more than high-grade bond owners, and stockowners should see this earnings stream significantly grow over the course of he next two years or so.
Also, cash dividends on the S&P at a 2.1% tax-favored yield far exceed treasury yields out to 10 years. Cap this off with the fact that the Leading Economic Indicators index is now at 104 following four successive monthly increases.
With easy earnings comparisons and no inflation on the near term horizon we expect the Dow Industrials to break 10,000 in October -- barring geopolitical events.
| Score | Percent | Current | |
| MARKET SENTIMENT | 50.00 | 0.10 | 5.00 |
| TECHNICALS | 71.88 | 0.20 | 14.38 |
| LIQUIDITY | 62.50 | 0.20 | 12.50 |
| VALUATION | 78.13 | 0.15 | 11.72 |
| EARNINGS MOMENTUM | 70.00 | 0.15 | 10.50 |
| MONETARY POLICY | 77.78 | 0.20 | 15.56 |
| 1.00 | 69.65 |
Robert Maltbie is a CFA and principal of Millennium Asset Management, a California-based registered investment advisor that provides investment management services to high net worth investors. He is also Managing Director of Singular Research, an alternative independent research provider focused on small cap stocks for institutional investors. See his Web site at www.stockjock.com.
Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
Are you in the rally, or out of it?
Commentary: It's time to make a choice
By Tom Lydon
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- These days, no matter what the markets do, there are still those naysayers who are sticking to their guns with admirable tenacity.
Heard any of these before?
"This rally is overheated."
"Any day now, the bear is going to be back."
"There's no way this is going to last. I'm staying out of it."
Despite a rally off the market's March 9 low that has continued with just a few pauses and hiccups, the skeptics are still out in force. How history repeats itself.
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.
• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
• Eliades: March lows may come back
• Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks
Following the bear market of 2000-2002, investors had a similar tone. Everyone said the 2003 rally couldn't continue and that, sooner or later, the markets would go "splat" once again. But that scenario never materialized. Instead, major markets recovered nicely in the last three quarters of 2003 and made those looking for an September/October correction look silly.
Will this time be different? Is this rally for suckers?
When this recession hit, investors began a mass exodus from the market that ultimately sank the major indexes to their lowest levels in nearly a decade. By 2008, they were practically trampling each other in a race to the exits as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapsed and the government stepped in with a massive bailout package designed to prop up what was clearly a critically ill economy.
Since the market's low earlier this year, investors have been slowly but surely returning. Despite how many rally doubters remain, some of them already have thrown up the white flag of surrender and taken equity positions. Yet most investors don't believe this recovery is real.
Missed opportunity
Still, to sit out and pooh-pooh the rally is to miss a major opportunity for gains, as well as a missed opportunity to make up what was lost in their battered portfolios. Investors hiding in the safety of money market funds aren't making anything from those paltry yields.
The markets have been steadily improving for much of this year, and all signs say that while the recovery may be a long, slow one, it will still be a recovery.
Why? There's $4 trillion on the sidelines, and as that money trickles back in, the rally should continue. Earnings season is just around the corner, and while many corporate forecasts are on the cautious side, their actual numbers could be better than expected
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the recession is "very likely over," and the Fed also is keeping interest rates at record lows for now in order to continue the pace of the recovery.
While a full recovery in the United States could be months away, there are many areas that have been delivering handsome returns for months.
Big gains
It's important to pick your spots so you don't miss opportunities to participate in potential long-term uptrends. In this recovery, keep an eye on both those areas that are likely to perform well as countries begin to build up again, as well as those areas that were hardest-hit in the recession:
Emerging markets: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets /quotes/comstock/13*!eem/quotes/nls/eem (EEM 37.95, +0.10, +0.26%) is up 84.1% off the market low
Steel: Market Vectors Steel /quotes/comstock/13*!slx/quotes/nls/slx (SLX 50.31, -2.42, -4.59%) is up nearly 130% since the low
Basic materials: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials /quotes/comstock/13*!iym/quotes/nls/iym (IYM 52.62, -2.18, -3.98%) is up nearly 90% since the low
Banks: Financial Select Sector SPDRs /quotes/comstock/13*!xlf/quotes/nls/xlf (XLF 14.29, +0.01, +0.07%) is up almost 140% since the low
Real estate: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate /quotes/comstock/13*!iyr/quotes/nls/iyr (IYR 40.91, +0.05, +0.12%) is up almost 90% from the low
There's no way to predict whether this rally really has legs longer than a supermodel's, or whether it's going to stop short tomorrow. If you make the decision to begin taking part in it today, look for those spots trading above their 200-day moving averages and protect yourself on the downside with a stop loss.
Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the ride.
Tom Lydon is the editor of ETF Trends and president of Global Trends Investments, an investment advisory firm. Website is at www.etftrends.com .
Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
What about the China effect?
Commentary: Nation's influence on U.S. earnings may feed the bull
By Zachary Karabell
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- October memories may be inspiring for baseball, but more often than not, they're haunting for Wall Street.
Black Mondays, Terrible Tuesdays, Wicked Wednesdays -- you get the drift. Over the past decades, October has given birth to some of the worst moments in stock market history. With the markets having been on their recent run -- a run that few expected so soon or to last so long -- there is a sense of trepidation in the proverbial air.
Without question, some of the surge in equities has had the distinct feel of momentum over fundamentals. Yes, the U.S. economy has stabilized but no, it hasn't started expanding.
While GDP figures may show growth for the third quarter, most of that will be the result of government spending and/or inventory restocking on the part of companies, and not due to any substantial resumption of dynamic activity in the United States.
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.
• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
• Eliades: March lows may come back
• Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks
In fact, many, many companies have shown surprising profitability because of their ability to trim costs and cut labor. Take Starbucks Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!sbux/quotes/nls/sbux (SBUX 20.01, +0.04, +0.20%) , which has been ruthless -- effectively ruthless, but still -- in eliminating stores in order to bolster crumbling margins.
And though stocks have been on a bull run for months, it's almost impossible to assess whether this market is cheap or expensive, largely because neither corporate executives nor Wall Street analysts know what to expect from earnings in the next year.
The past 12 months have been so anomalous that any assessment of what the coming months hold is largely guesswork -- though a repeat of what took place between the fall of 2008 and the spring of 2009 seems unlikely. For markets that trade on forward expectations, the lack of clarity is unsettling to say the least.
The momentum up has been undeniable, but as any trader will tell you, momentum can turn quickly, and mercilessly. If this is indeed a momentum market, then we have every reason to be nervous.
China feeding world economy
Yet, one trend seems clear: global growth outside of the United States and outside of Europe. More to the point, global growth driven by China has been central to economic activity worldwide and has been a magnet for countries such as Australia and Brazil and for companies that supply Chinese demand.
This has been evident in industrial names, ranging from Honeywell International Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!hon/quotes/nls/hon (HON 37.15, +0.75, +2.06%) to Caterpillar Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!cat/quotes/nls/cat (CAT 49.25, -0.20, -0.40%) , for base metal companies that supply the inputs such as Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!fcx/quotes/nls/fcx (FCX 65.30, -0.10, -0.15%) and Vale SA /quotes/comstock/13*!vale/quotes/nls/vale (VALE 22.36, +0.06, +0.27%) , and for high-tech companies such as Intel Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!intc/quotes/nls/intc (INTC 18.88, -0.02, -0.11%) and Cisco Systems Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!csco/quotes/nls/csco (CSCO 23.14, +0.05, +0.22%)
The same is true for consumer companies operating in China and service Chinese consumers, including such American stalwarts such as Yum Brands Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!yum/quotes/nls/yum (YUM 33.13, -0.63, -1.87%) , the owner of Kentucky Fried Chicken, as well as Avon Products Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!avp/quotes/nls/avp (AVP 32.62, -1.34, -3.95%) , and Nike Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!nke/quotes/nls/nke (NKE 62.64, +0.14, +0.22%)
Kentucky Fried Chicken, in particular, has long seen its most robust growth coming from China, with less than 10% of its franchises on the mainland accounting for more than a quarter of the company's earnings. That trend has been even more notable in the past year, as business in the developed world has tumbled.
Too many investors, however, continue to view the China growth story as a growth story happening in China. They then look for Chinese companies in which to invest. Given how well some of those have done in the past six months, it's hard to call that a mistake. Just look at the performance of the FXI iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 /quotes/comstock/13*!fxi/quotes/nls/fxi (FXI 39.65, -.00, -0.01%) , the largest China-focused exchange traded fund.
Only part of equation
But Chinese companies are only part of the equation, and unless the China effect is integrated into mainstream investing, investors are likely to miss a vital driver in the earnings story of the S&P 500 in the year ahead.
At the beginning of the decade, foreign business accounted for about 30% of the revenue of the S&P 500; this year, foreign business will make up 50%, give or take. And that understates the importance, since there still are a considerable number of companies that derive almost all their business from the United States -- especially utilities, some financials and banks, and many health-care corporations.
On the other end are tech giants ranging from Intel to Microsoft Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!msft/quotes/nls/msft (MSFT 24.80, -0.08, -0.32%) , industrials companies galore, material and oil companies, many of which generate 60% or 70% of their business overseas.
China has been emerging as a powerful component of the global system over the past decade. But this year, it has become the axis of global growth this year -- even though it is still much smaller an economy than either the European Union or the United States.
China demand acts as a catalyst and a source of cash flow for companies worldwide, and that factors intimately into the earnings picture of many businesses that are otherwise thought of as American. That includes companies like Avon and Caterpillar, Archer Daniels Midland Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!adm/quotes/nls/adm (ADM 28.86, -0.36, -1.23%) and Dell Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!dell/quotes/nls/dell (DELL 15.26, +0.12, +0.79%) Others on that long and growing list are mainstays Procter & Gamble /quotes/comstock/13*!pg/quotes/nls/pg (PG 57.92, +1.30, +2.30%) , IBM Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!ibm/quotes/nls/ibm (IBM 117.94, +0.04, +0.03%) , McDonald's Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!mcd/quotes/nls/mcd (MCD 56.61, -0.13, -0.23%) and Coca-Cola Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!ko/quotes/nls/ko (KO 53.05, -0.07, -0.13%)
U.S. economy can lag
The China effect means the earnings picture for company after company may be much brighter than any analysis of the domestic American economy would suggest.
In short, stocks can rally in the face of a chronically weak U.S. economy and not become overly expensive. Corporations can generate very healthy profit, because of a still-underestimated strength in foreign and especially China-driven earnings.
China-driven includes companies that directly benefit from Chinese demand. But it also includes companies and countries not normally associated with that nation, such as Brazil, Australia and export businesses in Japan and Korea that are blossoming in part because of China.
In essence, global equities can be propelled by the China effect. That means the United States' momentum-driven market may prove to be justified by earnings next year that are considerably in excess of the expected $60 to $70 for the S&P 500 because of the China effect.
As the connection between the domestic American economy and U.S.-listed companies continues to weaken -- a trend well established before the financial meltdown and accelerated because of it -- it's quite possible we will see stocks become ever-more detached from traditional tethers such as domestic GDP growth, industrial production and retail sales.
The summer rally is a harbinger. Yes, momentum has been fueling these rallies, and yes, there is a rising risk of a significant stall or pullback.
But there is also an earnings picture driven by the world outside the U.S. and by China that should prove to be much stronger in the comings months and years. If that is true, companies geared to that -- and there are more every day -- are bargains at current prices.
Zachary Karabell is president of River Twice www.rivertwice.com and the author of "Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World's Prosperity Depends On It," out shortly from Simon & Schuster.
Oct. 1, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend (1) · Post:
Is October correction inevitable?
Commentary: Not if you study patterns of crash years
By Ethan Anderson
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (MarketWatch) -- Most investors seem braced for a big correction, but in my experience the majority is usually wrong.
In order to predict the future, one must consider the past and research similar market cycles to come up with a probable forecast for the future. After studying comparable periods to the one we are experiencing today, investors will realize that an October correction is not likely.
Consider the following:
We have not yet recovered fully from 2008. The market rebound after the crash of 1987 did not see a correction of 10% until 1990, which is more than two years later. Moreover, that correction was after "only" a 35% drop from top to bottom. At present, we are only six months removed from a 55% drop in the market.
TRADING STRATEGIES: OCTOBER
Will the bull survive?
October is best known for spectacular market crashes. At the very least, the month's volatility can spook many investors. But many of our experts say there's good reason to remain in the market, despite whatever jitters you may have.
• Karabell: What about the China effect?
• Is October correction inevitable?
• Time to take a stand on rally
• Eliades: March lows may come back
• Hennessey: Not as bad as everyone thinks
October may be a negative month, but it's usually more in the range of 3% to 5%. The Octobers of 2008 and 1987 were the two biggest October sell-offs of the last 30 years, but each was preceded by a negative September. This year, September was positive.
During past October sell-offs, the month didn't represent the first wave of the attack. May and June often paved the way. October then stepped up to wipe out the survivors who believed the worst was over. Again, we did not see major selloffs in May or in June. In fact, this past June marked the fourth consecutive month of gains.
If we do sink lower in October, the catalyst can easily be the lack of top-line growth in earnings reports. However, if top-line growth is present, it can be another factor driving the market up in October.
To play devil's advocate, I must point out that six months after the market bottomed in 1987, the market was 21% higher. After the 2002 bottom, it was 24% higher. Today, we are 58% higher than we were in March. This is a significant jump.
To prepare investments for October, consider diversifying with a prudent amount of truly non-correlated asset classes like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), commodities such as precious metals, managed futures and inverse funds.
If you have already pulled significant assets out of the market and are sitting on the sidelines, get back in but not all at once. Dollar-cost-average back into a diversified portfolio in order to avoid buying in on the worst day of the year, and consider tactical asset allocation programs for a small percentage of your portfolio.
On the fixed income side, TIPS is a good way to get some income and inflation protection. The Fidelity Floating Rate Bond Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!ffrhx (FFRHX 9.32, -0.01, -0.11%) still looks attractive. Blackrock Global Allocation /quotes/comstock/10r!mdlox (MDLOX 17.30, -0.25, -1.43%) is a wonderful fund with multiple asset classes.
For equities, Tom Soviero and some of the rest of the folks over at Fidelity Leveraged Company Stock Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!flvix (FLVIX 25.65, -1.12, -4.18%) are some of the best in the business, as is the team running the Kinetics Paradigm Fund. /quotes/comstock/10r!wwnpx (WWNPX 19.19, -0.57, -2.89%)
In conclusion, it is inevitable that a correction will occur in the market at some point, but research shows that an October correction is unlikely. A 3% to 5% pullback is conceivable for October, but do not prepare investments for a major selloff. You will regret it.
Ethan Anderson is a senior portfolio manager with Rehmann , one of the largest accounting, financial services and consulting firms in the Midwest. Anderson sits on Rehmann Financial's Investment Research Committee and has been recognized as a "5 star" portfolio manager by Morningstar Inc.
thanks u wow...
now seem like a lot people praise me for having a good thought...hahahahaha
well...i will buy when sti 2400, then buy a bit..
then if up then good...
if not, 2300 then buy a bit....
will believe blood stop at 2200-2300 ( if very serious type)
then cheong up to 2800-2900....
iPunter ( Date: 02-Oct-2009 10:30) Posted:
|
Believe or not is one thing...
But Kelly is thinking the good thoughts... hehehe...
