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Closed at 32 cents. Lets see how the BDI fare tonight.
sureesh40 ( Date: 31-Dec-2009 08:59) Posted:
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I tried to bid yesterday at 30.05 cents. Could not get. last week bid at 29 cents also could not get.
So I gave up and bought at market price of 31 cents and got it instanly.
It was reported that dry bulk shipping rates will be going up. So will the stock price also increase.
grandmaster89 ( Date: 30-Dec-2009 17:29) Posted:
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Tmr I am going to bid for more at 30 cents.
Ok finally bought today 15 lots for 31 cents. After much consideration. Hope it won't dip much
Hope to see it at 80 cents in a few years time . Hope resources sector will boom.
As steady as the ship goes. For too long the shipping sector has been depressed.
Good recovery from 200ma. Even with not much vol still manage to break 50ma today, should be able to test 100ma tomolo.
Think many will vest in again if able to close above 0.325 tomolo. (break chart) (break100ma)
Lets hope it will hit near $0.4 within 1st quarter 2010.
Most stocks are trading at PE 12 - 15. This implies a 100 - 150% upside to Mercator's share price if it can continue to maintain its earnings.
80 cents target - This will come in the next shipping boom in a few years time. Mercator will be a lot larger and will capture more lucrative earnings then.
My 2010 target - 45 cents (based on PE 10)
Cannot compare PE with STX PO and Courage Marine since both are making losses this year.
sureesh40 ( Date: 29-Dec-2009 15:28) Posted:
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grandmaster89's TP is between $0.8 to $1 .
Don't know when it would reach this price. Do all undervalued stocks regain their value when market recovers.
smilingchuan ( Date: 29-Dec-2009 14:47) Posted:
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mercator lines NAV at $0.28 USD. that is = to SGD 0.39 at least.
Its P/B is 0.75 whereas STX PO is at 0.98
Way below valuation.
I would think personally $0.40 is a TP. but it will take a while. let's ride on the global recovery
Up strongly with good volumes this week. Onwards to 40 cents haha!!!
Or perhaps, they might be releasing an announcement???
some volumic movement now, those keen can take a look
grandmaster89 ( Date: 23-Dec-2009 23:23) Posted:
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I don't believe in timing my entry and exit from the market based on charts etc. I only look at the fundamentals. The greater the disconnect between the prevailing share price and its intrinsic valuation, the greater my margin of safety and hence the potential to make profits.
Today Mercator is up strongly.
for the sake of my own curiosity, what is the longest share u ever hold by far? The entry point i wanted to mention is not about 29, 28 or 27.....should the support level failed, it might plunge more than that.....
imagine you hv bought it ard 28 or 27.....then if unfortunately, the support failed n plunged to the px which is much lower than the px u entered....Would you still hv sufficient capital to buy some since by that time the px will b more attractive to u.....Or i would say will u still dare to get some since the price is successively dropping whenever u buy it.....
To be candid with u, i aware that u can be considered as an investor since u said that u will hold it for 3 yrs....But to be a shrewd investor, since TA does exist in share market, do you think that we should use that to get the share we want at the lowest possible price though FA have suggested that the counter is undervalued?
Afterall, it is merely my experience which i ever gained in share market ...NO OFFENSE.....
Not many BB players in this stock since it is already 72% owned by Mercator Lines Limited (its parent company).
I wouldn't worry too much about small things whether we should enter at 29 or 28 or 27 cents etc. I hold a 3 year outlook. If my assumptions are true, nobody will care which price u enter (29 or 28). If they are wrong, you shouldn't be wasting your time in the first place with this stock.
Technically, it doesnt really seem fine.....it is teetering at the brink of collapse....Should the support failed, wondering what is the next support level.......
Thanks for the compliments bro.
Mercator's profits is derived from 2 avenues - long term charters (who rates are pre-determined) and spot charter (whose rates are determined by the BDI index).
If the BDI rises strongly, we can expect Mercator's revenue and profit from its spot charter to rise as well. Similarly a plunge, will cause a massive drop in margins and hence profits. If the operating profit cannot exceed the depreciation and expense, the company will be making huge losses as in the case of Courage Marine whose profits are derived solely from spot charters.
Long term charters, on the other hand, have virtually no correlation with the BDI since the rates are already agreed upon. Currently the freight rate for a Panamax vessel average around 23-27k/day but since Mercator had locked Arcelor Mittal into a long term charter till Aug 2010, it is paying Mercator 60k/day for its services. This is the reason why Mercator is still making decent profits (US$20mil for 1H 10). Conversely, if the BDI continues to remain low (1500 - 4000), it would make no sense to lock any new vessels at this rate. If there is a recovery in 2H 2010 or 2011, Mercator's margin will be deeply affected if its vessels are churning in 2009 rates. I believe this is the reason why Mercator's Management is currently employing its newly delivered post-panamax vessel in the spot charter instead of finding a long term charter for it. 2 of Mercator's contract will expire Mid 2010 (affecting 2 ships). If the BDI doesn't recover, I expect them to be placed in the spot charter as well. If there is a recovery, it will make more sense to find a long term charter for them.
So when BDI rebounds 2 to 3 times, does that mean mercator's profits will also rise proportionally.
I must say you are very convincing and you demonstrate a maturity far exceeding your age.
grandmaster89 ( Date: 23-Dec-2009 23:23) Posted:
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BPI is green for the 4th consecutive day with freight rates up by 1.2%
Noble CEO predicts that BDI will rebound 2-3 times in 2H 2010
Noble CEO predicts that BDI will rebound 2-3 times in 2H 2010
I started investing earlier this year. I am reinvesting my capital and my profits gained from the amazing bull run earlier this year. Currently still vested in Noble Group.
I am bullish about commodities and the recovery of the shipping industry. As such, a dry bulk shipping company makes a logical investment. Mercator Lines and STX PO are the only bulk companies listed in SGX that is worth buying. But I am not too comfortable with the size of STX PO and its poor liquidity here. Mercator management showed great foresight in opting for long term charters last year instead of spot charters and so they are enjoying profits while the rest of the companies are making huge losses though I suspect STX PO will rebound to break even for this year.
So why of all companies do you choose to invest your NS savings in this company. Surely your 2 years or so of NS savings wouldn't amount to very much, aren't there better companies to choose from
grandmaster89 ( Date: 23-Dec-2009 13:56) Posted:
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