ASL Marine    Last:0.058    +0.001

ASL Marine

Another of my winner! Love you. Hope to see you at $2!

 

Extracted from my blog: http://kelongstocks.blogspot.com

full posting here:

Hi all, just a quick note on ASL Marine:

From today's price action, Cosco and Yangzijiang rallied strongly and are now trading at around 30x P/E for FY08.

In contrast ASL Marine is trading at only 10x historical FY07 earnings and only 8.2x FY08 earnings despite consistent forecasted growth in profits over the next 2 years.

UOBKH is forecasting $50m net profits for FY08 and $57m for FY09 compared to $40.3m which was achieved in FY07.
UOBKH is forecasting $48.7m net profits for FY08 and $55.5m for FY09

I feel that is a tad conservative given strong industry outlook and potential for more contract wins which will lead to further rerating.

Nevertheless, ASL Marine, albeit a much smaller player relative to the giants Cosco and Yangzijiang, does not deserve to be trading at such a steep discount to its competitors.

A more reasonable valuation would be to use its historical P/E trading range which is around 10x for FY2007.

Applying this same historical P/E to FY08 forecasted EPS of 17.5 cents ( fully diluted assuming full conversion of warrants due on Apr 08 ), ASL Marine deserves to be trading at least at $1.75.

During very bullish market sentiment, ASL Marine has traded up to 12x historical P/E which implies a potential target price of up to $2.10

 

Technicals are very bullish, it should take out 1.57 anytime, and head towards 1.68!

Cosco at pre-correction levels, Yangzijiang at 10% discount to pre-correction level,

ASL - still a compelling 30% discount to pre-correction levels!

 

Cosco cheong, Yangzijiang cheong, ASL next???

this one a no brainer, dirt cheap in terms of valuations, BUY!

 

This may be the next Marine stock to move after Labroy. Loaded up today.

 

----- Forwarded by Roger Ong/REM/DMGAPS on 08/27/2007 09:15 AM -----


FY07


FY07 earnings rose by 74.5% to S$40.25m on a 61.1% rise in revenue to S$318.4m. This outpaced our full year estimate of S$32.7m, with growth in all segments. Shipbuilding profit climbed 64.4%, Ship repair by 86.6% and Ship chartering by 41.4%. The significant improvement was driven by both higher charter rates (up 10-20% Y/Y) and the fleet expansion from 126 (53 tugs & 73 barges) to 158 (61 tugs & 97 barges). The group had earlier articulated a conservative strategy in its shipchartering segment: to maintain its fleet size, while expanding its vessel sizes. However, the buoyant market opportunities proved too good to miss. ASL subsequently increased its fleet by 27%, with another 22 vessels expected to be added in. The group could see a fleet size of around 170 vessels in the next year or so. Rates-wise, there will be a number of renewals in the coming fiscal year, which augurs well for the group.


Shipbuilding on a roll
ASL has just announced new shipbuilding orders worth S$102m from European clients. The orders comprise one sub-sea operation vessel, two Rotor Tugs and two self-propelled Hopper Barges with completion slated for FY09-10. We are upgrading our EPS forecast for FY08-09 by 5% as a result.


Order book at record high
ASL's record shipbuilding order book continues to pile up. The increasing number of offshore orders underscores the buoyancy of the offshore sector and ASL's success in moving up the value chain, which will translate into increasing order values and better margins. As at 30 June 07, the Group has an outstanding order book for shipbuilding of approximately S$622 mil


New dock still not optimal
Despite already reaping returns with a number of Aframax repair jobs completed, ASL's new dry dock that can handle ships of 150k deadweight tonnes (DWT) is still not operating at optimal capacity. We expect the new dock to contribute sales of at least around S$2m per month or S$24m annually. However, by adding a 220m finger pier to enhance its berthing capacity in order to take on more business, this could improve the group's revenue yield from the new dry dock to about S$50m per annum. Full contribution of Batam dry dock will come in next year.


Upgrading target price to S$2.34
ASL continues to offer good value, using current price of S$1.47, it is trading at 9.4x FY08 PE and 8.3x FY09 PE. We are raising our target price to S$2.34 from S$1.94 previously, based on 15x FY08 PE. We continue to believe that ASL is capable of unlocking value via ASL Energy. Reiterate BUY.


|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| Year End    | 2005    | 2006   | 2007      | 2008F  | 2009F  |
| Jun 30        |              |            |               |             |             |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| Sales ($ m)| 139.1    | 197.6   | 318.4    | 402.1    | 443.0  |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| Pre-tax ($m)| 16.1   | 26.5      | 45.1      | 52.8     | 60.0     |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| Net profit   | 13.6     | 23.1      | 40.2     | 46.3      | 52.6     |
| ($ m)         |             |              |              |             |             |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| EPS (cts)   | 6.2       | 9.7        | 14.7      | 15.6     | 17.7     |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| EPS growth | 23%    | 56%     | 51%    | 6.1%     | 13.5%  |
| (%)            |              |             |            |               |             |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| PER (x)       | 23.7    | 15.2      | 10.7     | 9.4        | 8.3      |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| EV/EBITDA  | 14.8  | 10.1     | 7.9        |  6.0      | 5.0       |
| (x)                 |          |              |             |              |             |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| Yield (%)   | 1.3       | 1.5        | 1.9        | 2.1         | 2.4     |
|------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|


 

 

ASL Marine records sharply better

FY2007 profit of $40.2 million

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_97905518AAFF7F7648257340002D1597/$file/ASLMarine.PressRelease.pdf?openelement

 

Update
ASL Marine (BUY-Under Review/S$1.80/Target: S$1.30-Under Review)
Wins S$102m new contracts.  Estimated outstanding orderbook of S$640m
to  last  till  FY10.   Call  and target price are under review, awaiting
final results.

 

The Board of Directors of ASL Marine Holdings Ltd. (the "Company" or "ASL

Marine") is pleased to announce that the Company?s wholly-owned subsidiary,

ASL Shipyard Pte Ltd has secured new shipbuilding contracts worth a total of

S$102 million for the construction of five vessels from customers in Europe:

? One unit of 90m DP2 Subsea Operation Vessel

? Two units of Rotor Tugs and

? Two units of Self-propelled Split Hopper Barges

The one unit of Subsea Operation Vessel and the two units of Self-propelled Split

Hopper Barges are expected to be completed in 2009. The two units of Rotor

Tugs were repeat orders secured from a customer and they are expected to be

completed in 2010.

Revenue from these new shipbuilding contracts will be recognised over the

contract period in accordance with the Group's revenue recognition policy, which

is based on the percentage of completion method. These contracts are not

expected to have a material financial impact on the net tangible asset and

earnings per share of the Group for the financial year ending 30 June 2008.

As far as the Directors of ASL Marine are aware, none of the Directors or

controlling shareholders of ASL Marine has any interest, direct or indirect, in the

above transactions other than through their shareholdings in ASL Marine.

 

what happen to all the marine stocks? Due to U.S inflation news....it is good time to accumlate at 1.65?

 

Guys. i'm out of ASL this morning at 1.76 due to previous flat lower1.78 negated. Taken profit.

Will re-buy again when times is right.

Never an inducement for any trade decisions.

 

Seems to be facing strong resistant at current price!

 

Nothing is for sure.
Investing/Trading itself is a buy of uncertainty

It is a buy on faith. Which means letting go of your control state. =)

 

will it still cheong tomolo even if STI dips? :)

 

All indicators looking good now.

 

All right! Its come back time! Cheong Ahhhh!!!!!!!

 

Bullish engulf white candle with gapup open.@ decent volume today.
Should see upside potential higher than lower.
Pullback support@ 1.70 is a strong level.
IMHO, its a level that offered minimum entry risk

Immediate resistance@1.76

Never an inducement for any trade decisions [vested]

 

I am not really concern about the performance shares thingie. Performance shares to employee by itself is a good thing. It is to encourage employee involvement. The outcome shall not elaborate. Many companies practice it. Note that, I didn't read the news at all. This is just my human resource experience opinion.

So long as you think its business is taking off, just have a little faith in it; otherwise it is a totally different story.

The next support would be at 1.63. Would buy more if it ever reaches there.

Never an inducement for any trade decisions[vested].

 

They did not state the reason why they are cutting back on the amount of performance share issue. But from my point of view is that they are aware that the price per shares are of a higher price than before, and will remain so for awhile! So they do not need to give out so many shares from now on. In addition it will also minimise diluting if there are any at all. So its actually a good thing. Just my 2 cents worth!

 

performance shares will not dilute the earnings. only a small amt.