Vard   

Vard Holdings

Hi sorry, I subscribe hard copy. Those who subscribe online copy may be can help.

danytan      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:36) Posted: can u post the article? thks. not subscribed WanSiTong      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:03) Posted: Today ST (B10 Money)   got a write up on Vard. Looks promising

 

Last:0.85     Vol:1075k     +0.02

yup back to make $$.. spend a lot during holiday :)

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:47) Posted: Hey, You come back oredi!!! Don't forget my baby Ezion n Kreuz Welcome home ...SJ!! Cheers!!! ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 08:26) Posted: looking promising on their orderbook wins, time to relook at Vard.

 

Hey,
You come back oredi!!!
Don't forget my baby Ezion n Kreuz
Welcome home ...SJ!!

Cheers!!!

ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 08:26) Posted: looking promising on their orderbook wins, time to relook at Vard.

 

can u post the article? thks. not subscribed

WanSiTong      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:03) Posted: Today ST (B10 Money)   got a write up on Vard. Looks promising! ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 08:26) Posted: looking promising on their orderbook wins, time to relook at Vard.

 

Today ST (B10 Money)   got a write up on Vard. Looks promising!

ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 08:26) Posted: looking promising on their orderbook wins, time to relook at Vard.

 

looking promising on their orderbook wins, time to relook at Vard.

 

Sorry...now I have the problem of cut & paste........

 

You have to wait until you see  the below  tab appears, then you do the cut & paste:

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oldflyingfox      ( Date: 09-Nov-2013 22:43) Posted: Tks WanSiTong, I just wonder how you manage to copy and paste it? I always having this problem when doing it in Windows 8.

 

After the cold rain stops  you will see  a rainbow ..........

 

Tks WanSiTong, I just wonder how you manage to copy and paste it? I always having this problem when doing it in Windows 8.

 

Cheers! 2014 will be bullish.....

With a peak order book of NOK19.6bn, VARD is set to deliver strong growth in 2014: Vard has 43 large vessels on its order book now out of which 21 will be delivered in 2014. This implies that revenues will be in the NOK11-12bn range next year and with Brazil losses phasing out, MER expects Vard to report a robust 81% YoY profit jump in 2014.
 
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins should improve to 9.9% in 2014 from 6.9% in 2013: Given the phasing out of Brazil losses and large contracts in Norway/Romania kicking in, MER expects a 3% YoY jump in margins next year.
 
65% of the order book is in key Romania and Norway yards: These yards are running at 100% capacity and are key to higher margins in MER?s view.
 
Order outlook in North Sea and for AHTS market improving: Management said that while they remain positive on the OSCV market, the spot rates for large AHTS in North Sea are stabilizing. The company is in active discussions with various buyers, and order inflows should remain healthy in 2014.
 
Action and recommendation
With a robust order book and phasing out of Brazil old yard issues, VARD can start on a clean slate in 2014. Current valuations are attractive in MER?s view.
 
MER has an Outperform rating on Vard Holdings with a 12-month target price of $1.05.

Hyat arh........

 

 

copy and paste not working well... u may chk this link instead => http://www.warrants.com.sg/cgi/newsletter/todays_highlight.cgi?action=email& uid=214%20

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 09-Nov-2013 19:06) Posted: Report from MER => In a research report published on 6 November, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) explained the reason for the lower net profit and why they remain bullish on Vard, particularly in 2014. Based on a conference call held by to Vard?s management to discuss 3Q13 results, its Niteroi shipyard in Brazil with four legacy vessel orders is the problem child of the group currently. While MER reduced their 2013 earnings estimate by 21%, MER thinks 2014 will not be impacted and should see robust growth next year, given that these legacy orders form only 3% of VARD?s order book now. Situation stabilizing at ?Niteroi? yard Losses might not continue: MER?s analysis suggests that Vard booked approximately NOK200mn loss from the Niteroi project in 2Q13 and approximately NOK100mn in 3Q13. Losses should continue subsiding in MER?s view as Vard has taken plenty of initiatives and mitigating actions. Only 3 vessels left to be delivered from Niteroi Only 3% of order book now: While Vard delivered one vessel last quarter, another one is 95% complete. The total revenue left to be recognized according to management from the entire Niteroi project is only NOK0.5bn which is 3% of its order book. With a peak order book of NOK19.6bn, VARD is set to deliver strong growth in 2014: Vard has 43 large vessels on its order book now out of which 21 will be delivered in 2014. This implies that revenues will be in the NOK11-12bn range next year and with Brazil losses phasing out, MER expects Vard to report a robust 81% YoY profit jump in 2014. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins should improve to 9.9% in 2014 from 6.9% in 2013: Given the phasing out of Brazil losses and large contracts in Norway/Romania kicking in, MER expects a 3% YoY jump in margins next year. 65% of the order book is in key Romania and Norway yards: These yards are running at 100% capacity and are key to higher margins in MER?s view. Order outlook in North Sea and for AHTS market improving: Management said that while they remain positive on the OSCV market, the spot rates for large AHTS in North Sea are stabilizing. The company is in active discussions with various buyers, and order inflows should remain healthy in 2014. Action and recommendation With a robust order book and phasing out of Brazil old yard issues, VARD can start on a clean slate in 2014. Current valuations are attractive in MER?s view. MER has an Outperform rating on Vard Holdings with a 12-month target price of $1.05.

 

Report from MER => In a research report published on 6 November, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) explained the reason for the lower net profit and why they remain bullish on Vard, particularly in 2014. Based on a conference call held by to Vard?s management to discuss 3Q13 results, its Niteroi shipyard in Brazil with four legacy vessel orders is the problem child of the group currently. While MER reduced their 2013 earnings estimate by 21%, MER thinks 2014 will not be impacted and should see robust growth next year, given that these legacy orders form only 3% of VARD?s order book now. Situation stabilizing at ?Niteroi? yard Losses might not continue: MER?s analysis suggests that Vard booked approximately NOK200mn loss from the Niteroi project in 2Q13 and approximately NOK100mn in 3Q13. Losses should continue subsiding in MER?s view as Vard has taken plenty of initiatives and mitigating actions. Only 3 vessels left to be delivered from Niteroi Only 3% of order book now: While Vard delivered one vessel last quarter, another one is 95% complete. The total revenue left to be recognized according to management from the entire Niteroi project is only NOK0.5bn which is 3% of its order book. With a peak order book of NOK19.6bn, VARD is set to deliver strong growth in 2014: Vard has 43 large vessels on its order book now out of which 21 will be delivered in 2014. This implies that revenues will be in the NOK11-12bn range next year and with Brazil losses phasing out, MER expects Vard to report a robust 81% YoY profit jump in 2014. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins should improve to 9.9% in 2014 from 6.9% in 2013: Given the phasing out of Brazil losses and large contracts in Norway/Romania kicking in, MER expects a 3% YoY jump in margins next year. 65% of the order book is in key Romania and Norway yards: These yards are running at 100% capacity and are key to higher margins in MER?s view. Order outlook in North Sea and for AHTS market improving: Management said that while they remain positive on the OSCV market, the spot rates for large AHTS in North Sea are stabilizing. The company is in active discussions with various buyers, and order inflows should remain healthy in 2014. Action and recommendation With a robust order book and phasing out of Brazil old yard issues, VARD can start on a clean slate in 2014. Current valuations are attractive in MER?s view. MER has an Outperform rating on Vard Holdings with a 12-month target price of $1.05.

 

Vard Holdings Ltd - Buy ahead of earnings recovery

Written By Stock Fanatic on Thursday, November 7, 2013

While Vard?s 3Q earnings miss of 5% was hardly inspirational, it cannot be argued that the company is in a downward spiral either. We expect a 2-year EPS CAGR of 15% in FY13-15 due to margins recovery. Catalysts could come from stronger earnings and orders.

At 60% of our FY13 EPS, 9M13 was 5% below our and broadly in line with consensus. We cut our FY13 EPS to factor in the miss and adjust our FY14/15 EPS by +7%/-19% as we cut our orders outlook and adjust our order recognition schedule. We upgrade to Outperform from Neutral as we think that earnings have bottomed out. Our target price rises as we roll forward to 9x CY15 P/E (10% above its mean since IPO).

3Q earnings bottomed out

Owing to the lower-than-expected turnover and the corresponding operating leverage effects, Vard recorded NOK66m core earnings (-71% yoy) for 3Q. We note that the low turnover was somewhat due to seasonality and expect a stronger 4Q. While continued delays and cost overruns for the Niteroi yard are hardly inspirational, it cannot be argued that the company is in a downward spiral either. In fact, EBITDA margins improved slightly by 0.2% pts qoq to 4.3% while the group achieved gross margins of 31.4% vs. our forecast of 26.2%.

Record orders in 3Q

Thanks to the record-NOK6.5bn pipe lay support vessel order, Vard secured NOK8bn orders in 3Q, bringing the YTD orders to NOK11.9bn. The current order book stands at NOK19.5bn, or 1.6x book-to-bill.

Outperform premised on conservative grounds

Our 9x CY15 P/E-derived target price factors in a recovery of EBITDA margins to 8.3% for FY15, 8% for FY14 and 6.7% for FY13 (within the company?s historical average). 

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We expect margins to improve due to  :

1) zero-margin projects in Niteroi being flushed out, 

2) higher utilisation at the Promar yard, 

3) scaling of the learning curve for Transpetro orders and 

4) investment initiatives in its Romanian and Vietnamese yards paying off. (Read Report)

 

hold lo my price still 1.06

danytan      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 11:56) Posted: all i wondering is what happened to those who bought 1.3, 1.2... before stxosv became vard... they cut loss? WanSiTong      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 11:11) Posted: Above the current px......but I hold for medium to  long term

 

all i wondering is what happened to those who bought 1.3, 1.2... before stxosv became vard... they cut loss?

WanSiTong      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 11:11) Posted: Above the current px......but I hold for medium to  long term. danytan      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 10:59) Posted: Ya, loyalty subscriber. can share ur avg cost if u dun mind?

 

 

CIMB TP : 0.98 Outperform

Buy ahead of earnings recovery

While Vard?s 3Q earningsmiss of 5% was hardly inspirational, it cannot be argued that the company is in a downward spiral either. We expect a 2-year EPS CAGR of 15% in FY13-15due to margins recovery. Catalysts could come from stronger earnings and orders.

At 60% of our FY13 EPS, 9M13 was 5% below our and broadly in line with consensus. We cut our FY13 EPS to factor in the miss and adjust our FY14/15 EPS by +7%/-19% as we cut our orders outlook and adjust our order recognition schedule. We upgrade to Outperform from Neutral as we think that earnings have bottomed out. Our target price rises as we roll forward to 9x CY15 P/E (10% above its mean since IPO).

3Q earnings bottomed out

Owing to the lower-than-expected turnover and the corresponding operating leverage effects, Vard recorded NOK66m core earnings (-71% yoy) for 3Q. We note that the low turnover was somewhat due to seasonality and expect a stronger 4Q. While continued delays and cost overruns for the Niteroi yard are hardly inspirational, it cannot be argued that the company is in a downward spiral either. In fact, EBITDA margins improved slightly by 0.2% pts qoq to 4.3% while the group achieved gross margins of 31.4% vs. our forecast of 26.2%.

Record orders in 3Q

Thanks to the record-NOK6.5bn pipe lay support vessel order, Vard secured NOK8bn orders in 3Q, bringing the YTD orders to NOK11.9bn. The current order book stands at NOK19.5bn, or 1.6x book-to-bill.

Outperform premised on conservative grounds

Our 9x CY15 P/E-derived target price factors in a recovery of EBITDA margins to 8.3% for FY15, 8% for FY14 and 6.7% for FY13 (within the company?s historical average). We expect margins to improve due to 1) zero-margin projects in Niteroi being flushed out, 2) higher utilisation at the Promar yard, 3) scaling of the learning curve for Transpetro orders and 4) investment initiatives in its Romanian and Vietnamese yards paying off.

Orderoutlook: tampering expectations

For orders, we are now expecting NOK12.6bn for FY13 (previously NOK14bn), NOK10bn for FY14 (previously NOK11bn) and NOK12bn (no change) for FY15.



https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/AtGDjr4Gcl8GZ1hHKuVEDGgcy5LQmeow-xeGsJvMG5SmoxA7sw6u8glwPQ_AbgpckkDnbCNRxfw1.pdf

 

 

We feel that we are more conservative than management ? the group continues to be positive on order intake for the remainder of FY13 and FY14, based on its level of discussions with the customers. Even so, our tampered expectations still project a 2-year EPS CAGR of 15% in FY13-15. Figure 1: For orders, we are now expecting NOK12.6bn

 

 

Date	Open Price	Target Price	Upside/Downside	Price Call	Source
06/11/2013	0.845	0.80 (Under Review pending an analyst conference call with VARD's management and also due to a change in analyst coverage	-0.045 (5.33%)	SELL	OCBC
06/11/2013	0.845	1.04	+0.195 (23.08%)	BUY	Maybank Kim Eng
06/11/2013	0.845	0.98	+0.135 (15.98%)	BUY	CIMB

 

Above the current px......but I hold for medium to  long term.

danytan      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 10:59) Posted: Ya, loyalty subscriber. can share ur avg cost if u dun mind? WanSiTong      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 10:49) Posted: Yes, Vard should issue a royalty award to be. Hahaha...