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GIC is buying up this counter.......
last line of defense is maintaining volume share for NOL. but that has gone dow the drain.. let's hope its market wide trend.
but if its market wide trend, its very worrying coz that means global economy still has not shown compelling signs of recovery but stocks gave the early May lull a miss this year!
Smell danger....
Core not looking good.
Liner volume down 2% y/y vs. positive growth thruout 2012 (except Q4'12). Freight rate is flat to down vs. Q4'12 (should be higher considering the various peak surcharges in Q1??). Double whammy in liner offset by logistics growing at healthy 8% (nowhere close to 30% of business soon at this growth rate :)
Liner margin at -5%, same as Q4'12. Cost efficiency not persistent?
Logistics margin at 4%, -2pcts vs. Q4'12. Wonder why?
Gave up on fright rate improvement to prop up the topline and was banking on sound cost management to provide the positive cashflow this year but Q1'13 looks disappointing.
had to see how market react but anyway this year another tough year for container shipping till 2014 where supply and demand balanced out.
From the report, the operating cost dived further 2% from last year 5% reduction if not for the weak freight rate could achieve a better result.
halleluyah ( Date: 14-May-2013 18:17) Posted:
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Profit is frm the sales of the building only if not LOSS US$124m.....See how mkt look at it tomolo.
sgng123 ( Date: 14-May-2013 17:55) Posted:
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that why I mention stay away till result out, although still earn profit but 2Q and 3Q would depend on whether a higher rate can be achieved in improved transpacific rate.
Congrat to you, you didn't buy. Wahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!! Coming quarters will be worse only. Wahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!
ruanlai ( Date: 14-May-2013 17:23) Posted:
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Actually is still making loss of US$124m after deducting the sales of the building.
ruanlai ( Date: 14-May-2013 17:23) Posted:
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NOL 1st Qtr Result
Gross Profit $115millions compared to last qtr ($36millions)loss
Net Profit $76millions compared to last qtr ($252millions) loss
Tomorrow will jump at least 10cents.......Too bad never dare to buy today...so sad....hope still can get it at 1.09
Weak china industrial data weaken share price a bit before tomorrow result. Tough time for global economy in 2Q but if US economy shows resilence and rebound strongly then all is good again since 3Q and 4Q is normally good for growth.
the fuel cost reduction is nice and hope next Tues bunker recovery cost is good in NOL result.
Hyundai got hit cos they never undergoing cost cutting plus container shipping only part of their business, the ship building and bulk shipping dragged them down lol. but Q412 loss is like 890M, they made a very big improvement reducing loss by almost 800M.
Hyundai merchant marine a G6 members posted a Q1 loss of 89M. Bunker expenditure was down 17% vs Q4 last year
Its okie to do so becos in sg beach, there is so far no Tsunami
sgng123 ( Date: 10-May-2013 23:32) Posted:
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US market hit another high last nite with S& P beaching new height and soon hit the 1667 peak projected to be hit at end year. Last year it is fear of Euro breakup that caused lot of panic selling, now it had become the opposite Greed is taking over, people don want to miss the bull rally. In the US laggard stocks are playing catch up namely the trade dependent, consumer related stock, in Singapore banks are playing catch up too they very close to their historical high. when banks done with their catchup with STI, hope transportation stocks would follow suit SIA is creeping up slowly while NOL still lag behind.
It can go both ways with market crashing when stock market become overheated with no real improvement to world economy and central bank forced to raise interest rate and stop QE. OR world economy finally pick up steam and recovered for good thus the laggard stocks in STI would pick up very fast and recover to valuation. It is either bull market followed by a great depression or a bull market followed by a mild correction. Dangerous play in STI defensive stocks in either ways due to over valuation as stocks were bought up due to dividend reason but actual profit margin did not warrant it. The scenario is like playing in the beach without knowing when the tsunamis is coming.
Yeah tis time the run up is vry uneven. Only the big blue chips/defensive counter eg telco r flying high whereas the mid/small caps r quite flat. If the US life support(QE) n raise int then the mkt will fall hard...most likely next yr.
sgng123 ( Date: 10-May-2013 20:59) Posted:
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Currently very strong undercurrent of bull market, it just waiting for chance to erupt. US market at historical high but still got room for 10-15% upside due to higher companies profit compared to bull market 5 years ago. This is going to be one crazy run as central banks round the world destroy bond yield by buying up bond with printed money, leaving those insurance, pension investment trust etc switching to stocks which are cheap for now. Defensive low beta stock like Singtel, Starhub, M1, Singpost, SPH , ST eng all hitting or exceed their historical high with no major improvement to their base line, only reason people buy them up cos of dividend. lot of hot money moving from bond to stocks, for nol to soar need a solid 1Q13 result to ignite the fire else would continue to remain in recession price zone. I am waiting for that share price catalyst result to punt else it hand off, 4 more days to go. Singapore banks all close to their historical high in 2007, when they exceed it then we might see STI at 4000 yearend. This is one strange market with high beta and low beta stocks at both end of spectrum, don know whether it is a real bull run or false one hard choice.
halleluyah ( Date: 10-May-2013 18:22) Posted:
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Thx for the insights bro. Much appreciated. Keep on posting..
sgng123 ( Date: 10-May-2013 18:33) Posted:
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lloydslist like to blow stuff when market don move in their projected direction but again it the analyst way of telling carriers not to get into another rate war. 4 alliances controlling container market namely Maersk, G6, MSC+CMA and China shipping group + Hanjin, very difficult to kill off each other since all 4 holding similar market share of 20%. Anyway new ships coming in the first half of year and eased later in 2nd half so difficult to raise GRI for now had to wait for 2nd half.