ThaiBev    Last:0.48    +0.015

up or down on debut?

Thanks for the info that FN has a controlling stake in the Myammar Brewery House.  Is there any other reasons for Today's rise - can it be a special dividend to be announced soon for the profit distribution for APB?

Octavia      ( Date: 22-May-2013 09:59) Posted: SCB visited Myanmar and met the management of F& N, who controls Myanmar Brewery. House note that the country’s extended isolation has led to a shortage of basic consumer items and a thirst for beer. Going forward, think Thai Bev is likely to acquire F& N’s F& B business in a restructuring. Assuming the restructuring, estimate Myanmar could represent 47% of Thai Bev’s beer vol growth in 2013-17. Myanmar brewery currently has 83% of market share in Myanmar’s beer industry. Previously Heineken was barred from investing in Myanmar due to the EU sanctions. Myanmar Brewery was therefore lodged in F& N’s F& B business. Overall, note that Myanmar is at a nascent stage as a consumer play and Thai Bev stands out among Myanmar consumer opportunities. In 2013-17, estimate about 15% of Thai Bev‟ s beer revenue growth could be driven by Myanmar.

 

SCB visited Myanmar and met the management of F& N, who controls Myanmar Brewery. House note that the country’s extended isolation has led to a shortage of basic consumer items and a thirst for beer. Going forward, think Thai Bev is likely to acquire F& N’s F& B business in a restructuring. Assuming the restructuring, estimate Myanmar could represent 47% of Thai Bev’s beer vol growth in 2013-17. Myanmar brewery currently has 83% of market share in Myanmar’s beer industry. Previously Heineken was barred from investing in Myanmar due to the EU sanctions. Myanmar Brewery was therefore lodged in F& N’s F& B business. Overall, note that Myanmar is at a nascent stage as a consumer play and Thai Bev stands out among Myanmar consumer opportunities. In 2013-17, estimate about 15% of Thai Bev‟ s beer revenue growth could be driven by Myanmar.

 

Fantastic, last few days the shortists are disappearing as the short sell orders are quite low and tappering off. Today the badly lossing shortists fraternity  are covering their short positions amounting to about 200 million shares so far accumulated for last 2 weeks. Thats why the price shot up and the shortist are  stampeding  to cover  . Cheers to the Thai boss who win the battle handsomely and also congratulate the longist.

 

 

infancybird      ( Date: 15-May-2013 20:45) Posted: Fantastic, today seen 50 million of short sell by shortist ,much higher than last few days of 30 millions. Yet the stk price keep pushing up by BBs who are   friendly to Mr. Charon , the boss. If the price hold firm or go up further, will see further price explosive upward ``chiong``when the shortist cannot hold on anymore. Hope the longist will win all the way up.  Many shortist thought the price will weaken with the not so satisfactory quarter result but it goes upward instead. Xiang90      ( Date: 14-May-2013 23:46) Posted: showing signs of near breakout liao hahaha. if the next few days can tong at least a 0.65 should be able to see fireworks =D

 

sold all my holdings...profit on the table first.

 

Unstopable train....

 

If 70% of the short lister covers their short. What is the estimated target price.

 

tonylim      ( Date: 16-May-2013 08:43) Posted: It looks set to cross the 70 cents any time soon infancybird      ( Date: 15-May-2013 20:45) Posted: Fantastic, today seen 50 million of short sell by shortist ,much higher than last few days of 30 millions. Yet the stk price keep pushing up by BBs who are   friendly to Mr. Charon , the boss. If the price hold firm or go up further, will see further price explosive upward ``chiong``when the shortist cannot hold on anymore. Hope the longist will win all the way up.  Many shortist thought the price will weaken with the not so satisfactory quarter result but it goes upward instead

 

It looks set to cross the 70 cents any time soon

infancybird      ( Date: 15-May-2013 20:45) Posted: Fantastic, today seen 50 million of short sell by shortist ,much higher than last few days of 30 millions. Yet the stk price keep pushing up by BBs who are   friendly to Mr. Charon , the boss. If the price hold firm or go up further, will see further price explosive upward ``chiong``when the shortist cannot hold on anymore. Hope the longist will win all the way up.  Many shortist thought the price will weaken with the not so satisfactory quarter result but it goes upward instead. Xiang90      ( Date: 14-May-2013 23:46) Posted: showing signs of near breakout liao hahaha. if the next few days can tong at least a 0.65 should be able to see fireworks =D

 

Fantastic, today seen 50 million of short sell by shortist ,much higher than last few days of 30 millions. Yet the stk price keep pushing up by BBs who are   friendly to Mr. Charon , the boss. If the price hold firm or go up further, will see further price explosive upward ``chiong``when the shortist cannot hold on anymore. Hope the longist will win all the way up.  Many shortist thought the price will weaken with the not so satisfactory quarter result but it goes upward instead.

Xiang90      ( Date: 14-May-2013 23:46) Posted: showing signs of near breakout liao hahaha. if the next few days can tong at least a 0.65 should be able to see fireworks =D

 

showing signs of near breakout liao hahaha. if the next few days can tong at least a 0.65 should be able to see fireworks =D

 

All Bro...

What does it mean ? I just started to in today at 0.66.

Still good to go in or have to rush to go out ?

 

Thanks

 

No wonder so many shorts... 31625 lots... wa piang... 20mil SGD worth of shorts... seriously...

Octavia      ( Date: 14-May-2013 21:49) Posted: Thai Beverage Public Co posted a 20 per cent drop in first-quarter net profit as higher excise duties and the ending of its Pepsi relationship continued to take a toll. Profit attributable to shareholders fell to 3.5 billion baht (S$146 million), or 0.14 baht per share, for the quarter ended March 31, from 4.3 billion baht in the year-ago period. Net profit margin slipped to 8.8 per cent off revenue of 39.2 billion baht, from 10.6 per cent off 40.6 billion baht in revenue a year earlier. Net asset value per share, however, increased to 3.45 baht as at end-March from 3.24 baht as at end-December. The sharpest decline came from the non-alcoholic beverage business. ThaiBev's Sermsuk unit is still trying to boost sales of its own " est" cola after ending its relationship wtih Pepsi in November 2012, leading to a 237 million baht net loss for the business segment, compared with 310 million baht profit a year ago.

 

 

DBSV starts Thai Bev at Buy with TP $0.80. Notes ThaiBev is the entrenched market leader in Thailand's spirits business, providing the group with stable growth and strong cash flow. " It is the market leader in green tea (through Oishi) and has the largest distribution network for soft drinks in Thailand allowing for quick route-to-market" .

" ThaiBev has the potential to evolve into a credible regional F& B player over time," with its F& N stake buy a good platform for regional growth. Among near and long term catalysts, DBSV expects F& N's capital distribution will be used toward lowering existing debt, potential collaboration with F& N and restructuring of F& N. Potential inclusion of ThaiBev in the MSCI index at the upcoming May 15 review could also serve as a near-term trading catalyst, it says, noting F& N was recently removed from the index.

ThaiBev trades at 16X FY14 prospective earnings, below regional and global peers' 18X-24X average. Despite the counter's strong performance year-to-date, the house believes price appreciation on this counter will continue.

 

On-balance volume

 

Sorry, what is OBV?

Xiang90      ( Date: 13-May-2013 14:40) Posted: This one like just retailer buying interest i believe. OBV havent breakout, maybe more upside to come?

 

This one like just retailer buying interest i believe. OBV havent breakout, maybe more upside to come?

 

Strong buying at 68 and hope it will break 70

singsong      ( Date: 13-May-2013 14:10) Posted: I_Bird   Your prediction of 0.80 appears to be coming true. DBS Vickers just issued a buy target of 0.80 as a start with further appreciation down the road. Well done .

 

I_Bird

  Your prediction of 0.80 appears to be coming true. DBS Vickers just issued a buy target of 0.80 as a start with further appreciation down the road. Well done .

 

FN Shareholder will enjoy a bonus dividend of $3280    per lot as part of its profit distribution.  Not sure if ThBev will enjoy some kind of special divedend

infancybird      ( Date: 13-May-2013 13:37) Posted: spot-on.....precisely the way i wished and played out accordingly....i raise my upside from 80cts to $1.00 within this yr. Has been accumulating since 36ct and buying up, will continue this buying as price appreciate. Won`t sell thbev. infancybird      ( Date: 09-May-2013 18:58) Posted: thbev and FNN share the same stk price movement. FNN has been on an constant uptrend since lifting of halt and this is a good indication that the insider are buying and accumulating FNN and this is good for Thbev. The latter will benefit greatly from a spin-off of the beverage business of FNN. Tgt price is beyond 80ct after july 19th. My advice is....... still can accumulate Thbev around this price

 

spot-on.....precisely the way i wished and played out accordingly....i raise my upside from 80cts to $1.00 within this yr. Has been accumulating since 36ct and buying up, will continue this buying as price appreciate. Won`t sell thbev.

infancybird      ( Date: 09-May-2013 18:58) Posted: thbev and FNN share the same stk price movement. FNN has been on an constant uptrend since lifting of halt and this is a good indication that the insider are buying and accumulating FNN and this is good for Thbev. The latter will benefit greatly from a spin-off of the beverage business of FNN. Tgt price is beyond 80ct after july 19th. My advice is....... still can accumulate Thbev around this price. myjianrong      ( Date: 07-May-2013 12:23) Posted: yesterday cant wait sold l00 lots liao..