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Forex Junction

Although there are practically 101 trading techniques to play fx, the philosophical/strategic teachings
expounded in "Bird Watching in Lion Country" is worthy of even the most experienced fx veteran, particularly those who have blown and are still blowing accounts...  

 

95% of retail forex players lose money.

Many of them go after new 'secret' trading systems after system after system and still looking...

 

95% of players lose money... it is no different in currency trading.

Hope invincible individuals become forex millionaire... ( not just make baby pips)

 

anyway, just avoid trading the pair that have news coming out in 1-2 hours times to avoid spikes in price that trigger your position SL.


 

most forex trader uses this website to track news time as it can be set to your country timezone.

 

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php


 

News may affect the short short term price but it will always move back to where it intend to move. Central BANKS almost never can change the direction of the currency if the institution players think other wise.  

 

 

Another Bull SHit by ipunter aka manimako aka ebooks salesman.

 All real Forex Trader knows that FOREX is 80% TA and 20% News. Never have the central bank ever suceeded in making the market move accept by cutting interest rates or the economy conditions of the country. BOJ cant even lower its yen strength recently to make its currency cheaper for export. Mass markets aka the institutions are the real mover of the market who determine the near future price and direction of the currency. And how they move the currency? Based on TA rules of coz...

 

go read more abt forex and do more tradig before putting your posting here. post with responsibility and stop trying to sell crappy ebooks. so hard on living that have to sell ebooks?

 


 

 

 

Many forex veterans say TA doesn't fully work on forex,

as this market  is more driven by fundamentals... which can play havoc with TA geometry...

 

baseerahmed      ( Date: 12-Jan-2008 22:35) Posted: wow ! wow! wow!wow!wow! casually had been looking at daily and 1hr charts of gbpusd for the last few days (without even reading up on forex news .. flying blind, so to speak) ..and made this observation : TA must have been build for this ..provided one can zoom in on the right combinations of patterns and indicators ..wow ! ..the power of TA ! or may be it was just beginners luck ? ! .... need to roll up the sleeves and do some more observations and more reading up on forex ..and set out some time to look into those videos and ebooks shared with cashiertan! mmmm .. i am reminded of the invitation sometimes back extended by Kilroy (hope I got the right person ) to elfinchilde to make use of her TA skills on forex .... mmmm .. ( hope she is reading this ..hahaha !) ---------------------------- (note: this is not an inducement .. just a personal observation ..posted in good faith ...if u are not properly equipped .. this Ali Baba's cave can morph into a landmine instantly .. be warned .... hahaha ! )

 

Hi techsys,

 

Kindly share with me your trading strategies. My email is joschia@gmail.com Thanks

 

Hi techsys,

I am a newbie having no luck with forex-trading so far. Hope you can put me on your mailing list too.

My email is:-    ronny9w@gmail.com

You will always have my votes for you.

 

Hi techsys,

Please also include me in your mailing list. I am keen to learn to trade the forex market.

victorlee03@gmail.com

freeme      ( Date: 05-May-2008 11:52) Posted: Hi tech sys, Please include me in ur mailing list: andysiow.wc@gmail.com

 

Hi techsys,

I gotta burned by fx before. Would greatly appreciate it if you could share your technique with me. ojcurious@hotmail.com

Many thanks in advance.

 

Hi tech sys,

Please include me in ur mailing list:

andysiow.wc@gmail.com

 

Hi techsys

Can you share with me as well

my email : rikkyyee@yahoo.com

 

Joschia ... please trace back the record on this thread .. you will know what todo :D

joschia      ( Date: 03-May-2008 13:52) Posted: Hi, I'm keen to learn forex trading.... Cashiertan/Techsys - is it possible to share ur technique with me? Thanks

 

Hi Samall,  I will send you email that I had sent to other. 

Keep consistent, and freedom will come to you ... this is about self-management.  Last week performance for my first strategy is 225 pips.

samall      ( Date: 04-May-2008 21:48) Posted: techsys, thanks for the sharing.  Could you please include gosam88@yahoo.com  in your mailing list.  I have done some paper trades with your last shared techniques.. achieved ~80 pips last month... I was travelling quite a lot so could not do this consistently.  I'm now trying to catch up with your posts. On your post of 26 April, I'm not able to open the pic.  Would you know the possible reason ?  Thanks!! techsys      ( Date: 28-Apr-2008 11:22) Posted: Hi seed, I'm glad you have made your decision.  I'm focusing my trade in forex because of its liquidity.  I have some amount of money trapped in stock, and until now, I'm still waiting until market let them free ...   Base on money management I arrange, I will show you how to manage risk as low as possible and from 250 USD .. you will have income for 2500 USD / month at least after 6 months.  The things you need to practice are patience, ability to observe the market, good trading behaviour and mentality. Btw, all bro ... last time I got arround 19 people likes to have email from me.  But only few of them actively sent me email.  I don't want to be a spammer to your mailbox.  Please for bro who want to receive my next Forex Setup (Trending Strategy) ... post your email here ... for bro who has noted me or actively sent email to me, I have put you on my list.  Until now .. i have only arround 11 emails on my list.

 

Hi yongliang168


Thank you for the kind sharing of e-book.

my email= rikkyyee@yahoo.com

 

Hi Techsys

             please include me in your mailing list :  limsiang@gmail.com . thanks.
 

samall      ( Date: 04-May-2008 21:48) Posted: techsys, thanks for the sharing.  Could you please include gosam88@yahoo.com  in your mailing list.  I have done some paper trades with your last shared techniques.. achieved ~80 pips last month... I was travelling quite a lot so could not do this consistently.  I'm now trying to catch up with your posts. On your post of 26 April, I'm not able to open the pic.  Would you know the possible reason ?  Thanks!! techsys      ( Date: 28-Apr-2008 11:22) Posted: Hi seed, I'm glad you have made your decision.  I'm focusing my trade in forex because of its liquidity.  I have some amount of money trapped in stock, and until now, I'm still waiting until market let them free ...   Base on money management I arrange, I will show you how to manage risk as low as possible and from 250 USD .. you will have income for 2500 USD / month at least after 6 months.  The things you need to practice are patience, ability to observe the market, good trading behaviour and mentality. Btw, all bro ... last time I got arround 19 people likes to have email from me.  But only few of them actively sent me email.  I don't want to be a spammer to your mailbox.  Please for bro who want to receive my next Forex Setup (Trending Strategy) ... post your email here ... for bro who has noted me or actively sent email to me, I have put you on my list.  Until now .. i have only arround 11 emails on my list.

 

Morning Adviser Asia Further Upside To Dollar

USD: Light data week ahead
EUR: ECB meets on Thursday
AUD: ANZ job ads and house prices are due
Asia: Where is the tightening?
IDR: BI at a crossroads on rates
Tech: USDJPY moves above resistance


G10



USD: Light data week ahead



The US dollar strengthened across the board last week, with EUR in particular suffering some heavy losses. The US dollar benefited from the Fed adopting a more neutral stance at the FOMC last week, while data in the Eurozone continued to come in soft. The US dollar got further support on Friday, with the non-farm payrolls release showing job losses of just 20k, while the jobless rate declined unexpectedly. The payrolls report is an exceptionally volatile release and subject to considerable revisions and hence we would not place too much emphasis on the one data point. In the week ahead, US data of particular interest is limited to non-manufacturing ISM for April due later today and pending home sales for March due on Wednesday. Non-manufacturing ISM likely only dipped to 49 in April from 49.6 in March, and is still only at levels consistent with a mild recession. The bigger picture for FX markets remains that we think the ECB is being gradually forced by the data flow into accepting that interest rates need to come lower, while the Fed rate cutting cycle is in the end game. On that basis, while the US dollar has already appreciated rather rapidly against EUR over the past one and a half weeks, we think the risks still tilt to further strength, and target EURUSD at 1.47 over 3 months. We suspect that there is still significant positioning by real money accounts against the US dollar, and a recapitulation of those positions could become another driver of US dollar strength. On a shorter-term basis, our technical strategists warn that EURUSD remains bearish below 1.5499, and a break of 1.5410 opens the way down to 1.5342.



Ahead today, and in addition to the non-manufacturing ISM release at 1400 GMT, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on the subject of mortgage delinquencies in the US evening, or around 0030 GMT, which is tomorrow morning Asia time. Japan is on holiday today and tomorrow. The UK is also on holiday today.



EUR: ECB meets on Thursday



The ECB meet on Thursday and while no one expects a rate move, there will be intense scrutiny of ECB President Trichet's subsequent press conference. Eurozone manufacturing PMI released on Friday showed a slight expansion in April but the pace was the lowest since May 2005. The headline figure of 50.7 shows the sector is flirting with contraction as the global downturn and weakening terms of trade continue to squeeze the sector. A breakdown showed that German and French manufacturing PMIs managed to say in expansionary territory, while Italian and Spanish PMIs remained well below 50 at 48.2 and 45.2 respectively.



AUD: ANZ job ads and house prices are due



A few data points are out this morning. A monthly barometer of inflation is due at 0030 GMT, while ANZ job ads and Q1 house prices are due at 0130 GMT. Employment data is key at present given the deterioration in consumer sentiment. The RBA meet tomorrow - we would expect them to maintain a neutral to slightly hawkish bias in light of strong PPI, CPI and Friday's unexpected rise in retail sales. However, even with the 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales for April, our economists note that following a flat January and a 0.1% drop in February, the first quarter of 2008 is the weakest since mid-2005. Volumes have fallen through the quarter, and overall the release is consistent with our expectations of a significant but orderly moderation in consumption over the coming year. With commodities prices starting to ease and the impact of the global slowdown being felt more widely, the AUD may face some pressures up ahead, though the current risk environment is proving more supportive for high-yielding currencies. While we think AUD can trade lower in coming months, we still need an appropriate catalyst. We maintain our 1- and 3-month targets for AUDUSD at 0.9100. In New Zealand this morning, the private sector labour cost index of private wages rose by 0.7% q/q, below expectations of a 0.8% q/q gain. However, the market is already short NZD, so the data had little impact.



Emerging FX



Asia: Where is the tightening?



With most countries in Asia net importers of food and energy, CPI readings are at multi-year highs across the region. Singapore's CPI is at 25-year peaks, while the others are at their highest since the 1997/98 crisis if fuel subsidy cuts in Thailand and Indonesia are ignored. Yet, barring a 12.5bp hike from Taiwan's CBC, no Asian central bank has raised rates this year. The PBoC last hiked in December, while Bank Indonesia actually cut rates by 25bp the same month and BSP eased in March 2008. While Bank Negara Malaysia has remained relaxed on inflation, we see a risk that the government may have to cut subsidies given a likely fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GDP this year. Others in the region have sounded rightly worried about inflation, but their actions have contrasted with their words. With inflation rising across the region, the implications are clear for real rates. FX intervention has also accelerated. Reserve accumulation after FX valuation effects rose to a monthly average of US$25bn in Q1 from US$20bn for Asia ex-China. In REER terms, the SGD, CNY and PHP are higher, the THB is flat, while the TWD, MYR, KRW, INR and IDR have weakened. This effectively means easing monetary conditions (real rates + REER) in most Asian countries, apart from China and Singapore, at a time when monetary tightening is needed. Asian central banks have made the right noises on inflation, but been mercantilist in their monetary policy management. Hence, we do not like the Asian yield curve in general, and believe policy mistakes could also raise risks for Asian currencies. While it's best to avoid adding long Asian currency positions for now, we don't see a need to reverse our existing positions. Like the MAS, the CBC has not been averse to allowing the TWD to appreciate. The TWD also has a positive political angle, and it's not as crowded a trade as many people think. Our long INR/short NZD trade is being supported by a weakening NZD and should be relatively safe if you believe the recoupling view would mean a weaker Euro, stronger US dollar and weaker commodities. Moreover, USDINR is at lofty levels now and may face some selling once the short squeeze ends.

 

hah. Thats a hefty sum. Anyway which are the brokers... you mind sharing?

yongliang168      ( Date: 05-May-2008 00:30) Posted: i know of some, but minimum deposit 50k ,