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DBS issued a price upgrade $2.77 tat's y the stock shot up by 7 c..
got to clear 2.1 to move further..
Ezra FA is solid, still keep an eye on the TA movement, long it to 2.6 . jmv
thomas_low ( Date: 25-Nov-2009 00:20) Posted:
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Frm DBS Vickers..
Ezra Holdings : BUY; S$1.97; Bloomberg Code: EZRA SP
Great Expectations
Price Target: 12-Month S$ 2.77 (Prev S$ 2.32)
by: Jeremy THIA +65 6398 7974
and Wee Lee CHONG CFA +65 6398 7971
We are raising our FY10 net profit estimates for Ezra by 8% to
US$91m – the highest on the street.
We expect the street to play catch up for FY10 earnings projection
– a potential price catalyst to Ezra.
Commencement of Ezra’s first FPSO charter contract has removed the
single largest modelling/valuation risk.
Our TP is raised to S$2.77 (+41% upside); maintain BUY.
Our earnings estimate is the highest on the street. We re-visit our
assumptions following the commencement of Ezra’s first FPSO charter
contract in October. This has removed the single largest earnings concern,
in our view. We raise our FY10 net profit estimate by 8% to US$91m, after
factoring in: 1) fabrication jobs for the second FPSO, 2) on-schedule
delivery of first liftboat, and 3) higher blended AHTS day rates upon
contract renewal.
Price catalyst 1: Earnings upgrade from the street. Our new FY10 recurring
net profit projection is 11% above the consensus mean estimate of US$82m.
We expect the street to play catch up and upgrade its earnings projections
when Ezra announces its 1Q10 results in mid-January 2010, at the latest.
Price catalyst 2: We believe that Ezra may yet announce fabrication
contracts related to the construction of its second FPSO. This is possible
given Ezra’s fabrication facilities in Vietnam, as the higher localisation
content should sit well with PetroVietnam. We have factored in new orders
of US$50m related to this second FPSO, which should be recognised over the
2Q10-2Q11 periods.
Price catalyst 3: There could be upside to the second FPSO’s earnings
contribution of US$2.6m per year. We have assumed Ezra’s 49%-owned EOC to
have 25% equity stake in the second FPSO, which is at the lower end if the
group is to have a meaningful stake.
Target price is raised to S$2.77. The higher target price is due to our
earnings upgrade and the use of higher valuation metrics following the
successful deployment of the first FPSO. This is negated by share dilution
from Ezra’s inaugural convertible bond issue. Maintain BUY on Ezra, with a
41% price upside potential.
Seeing some action today? In the top vol and top gainer listing. What's up?
tradersgx ( Date: 23-Nov-2009 22:55) Posted:
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Trader, you posted very positive news, and the sell down seems negative, what is your view?
tradersgx ( Date: 23-Nov-2009 23:07) Posted:
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(Ezra Holdings owns 14% of Ezion )
The Edge 9.11.09
Dutch pension fund - Stichting Pensioenfonds raises stake in Ezion
Stichting Pensioenfonds, the pension fund for civil servants in the Netherlands,
acquired 2.4 million shares in Ezion Holdings on Oct 29, raising its stake from 5.98% to 6.32%.
For the Third quarter ended 30.09.2009, Ezion reported a 140% increase in revenue to $20.7 million and
an 67.7% rise in earnings to $4.1 million on strong demand for its offshore logistics support vessel services.
Ezra Holdings
16 Nov'09 Target price of $2.70
UOB-KAY HIAN
OVER FY2010 to FY2012, Ezra Holdings is set to see its next leg of growth, driven by its new deepwater
subsea services segment and a second fabrication yard in Vietnam. We expect earnings in FY2012 to double
from FY2009, implying a three-year compounded annual growth rate of 25 per cent.
We believe asset owners are early reactors to any cycle due to charter rates' sensitivity to demand-side dynamics.
Given shipbuilding lead time of 15-24 months, an increase in demand for vessels will not be matched by an
immediate increase in supply, thereby keeping charter rates buoyant. Management has proven itself by growing its
offshore and construction/production divisions to incorporate 29 vessels, three construction vessels and an FPSO which,
together, grossed US$263 million in FY2009, while keeping the balance sheet even-keeled. Getting in on sale and
leaseback schemes early has also kept off-balance sheet liabilities manageable.
Ezra's fleet management strategy and long-term charter practice should largely shield the company from an influx of
181 new vessels putting pressure on charter rates in 2010. We expect charter rates to scale a gentle recovery track
from late-2010.
We initiate coverage with a 'buy' recommendation and target price of $2.70 derived from sum-of the-parts
valuation. Our target price implies FY2010F and FY2011F price/earnings of 15.3 times and 10.5 times respectively.
Near-term price catalysts include nascent contract win announcements for its subsea segment, on-schedule delivery of
subsea assets, and more acquisitions of distressed offshore assets.
UBS selling down..
Substantial sharholder selling...NOTICE OF CESSATION OF SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDING
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/marketplace/mp-en/listed_companies_info/company_announcements/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3gTn1DXUFNLYwMLtwA3AyMvZ3Mf09AAA_dAc6B8JE55A3czArq99KPSc_KTgPb4eeTnpuoX5EZUOjoqKgIAFOdGOQ!!/dl3/d3/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/
Problem or market turning?
Ezion Holdings:
A commentary at the date of the announcement of the significant trends and competitive conditions of the
industry in which the group operates and any known factors or events that may affect the group in the next
reporting period and the next 12 months.
The global debt and equity markets are gradually showing signs of stabilisation after the concerted efforts
by the major central banks worldwide. The Group views this as a positive sign as it will allow it to have better
access to both the debt and equity market to develop assets required to fulfill its major contracts that have
been secured and to better meet its customers' needs.
The Group will continue to work closely with its customers and only commit to new projects which are confirmed,
niche and where capital funding is available.
The Group has more assets to be deployed in 4Q FY2009. The first unit of multi-purpose self-propelled jack-up rig ("liftboat") would be delivered before the end of FY2009. We expect positive contribution from our joint venture
in Australia in 4Q FY2009.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, the management expects the Group's performance in FY2009 to be better than that of FY2008.
tradersgx ( Date: 19-Nov-2009 01:00) Posted:
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Ezra Holdings owns 14% of Ezion
For the Third quarter ended 30.09.2009, Ezion reported a 140% increase in revenue to $20.7 million and
an 67.7% rise in earnings to $4.1 million on strong demand for its offshore logistics support vessel services.
For the 9 months ended 30.09.2009, Ezion reported a 175.6% increase in revenue to $56.5 million and
an 95.8% rise in earnings to $11.5 million.
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_CB5A89259022DE584825766B003A1A24/$file/Ezion_3Q2009_results.pdf?openelement
UBS AG go in and out on EZ all the time. Price up, they unload. Down, they buy in. You would notice the base held is always about 4.8+%.
I suppose they dun want to cause big fluctuations in the price should they go in and out in a big way. Afterall they have vested interest, and there's money to make. Nibble up or down smoothly and profit along the way.
tradersgx ( Date: 18-Nov-2009 10:08) Posted:
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And good luck to you too. I will not go in at this price too. May be like risktaker, 1.70-1.80 if it ever go there.
des_khor ( Date: 18-Nov-2009 12:05) Posted:
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Congrats ! you are just a few lucky one...
chris168 ( Date: 18-Nov-2009 12:04) Posted:
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Haha, precisely becos' of this, 500% you say, I made more than 70k from this babe with very little capital.
des_khor ( Date: 18-Nov-2009 11:12) Posted:
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I will never buy this type of counter.. the risk as high as penny counters...already up 500% within the year!! crazy ... trust MFT ?? haha...
risktaker ( Date: 18-Nov-2009 11:09) Posted:
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it will touch 1.8x before it rebound - :) You will see it soon if you dont believed.
des_khor ( Date: 18-Nov-2009 10:43) Posted:
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Don't believe all the MFT as this counter up from low below 0.40 to current level.... sometime think back are we crazy with chasing the counter ?? any pull back will be very deep one lo for this type highly sepeculated one ,just like Cosco untill now still BBC....
ozone2002 ( Date: 18-Nov-2009 10:40) Posted:
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as low as 1.95..wat a steal..
after report in business times, funds start to take opportunity to unload to retailers..