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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks wrapped up their first week of the fourth quarter by touching record highs, and the potential for profits to beat reduced expectations as results start coming in next week may keep the rally alive.
The Dow and the S&P 500 surged to all-time intraday highs on Friday after a solid employment report rekindled optimism about the U.S. economy and corporate profits. The S&P 500 also closed at a record high.
Friday's record run-up cemented the market's recovery from a late summer sell-off, when a credit squeeze and mounting housing market losses drove investors away from equities. Even so, third-quarter earnings will likely top investor concerns in the coming week.
Alcoa Inc (AA.N:
Quote,
Profile,
Research), the world's biggest aluminum maker, takes its traditional spot as the first major company -- and the first Dow component -- to report, with results after the close of trading on Tuesday.
Other companies reporting in the week include Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O:
Quote,
Profile,
Research), Monsanto Co (MON.N:
Quote,
Profile,
Research), PepsiCo Inc (PEP.N:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) and Safeway Inc (SWY.N:
Quote,
Profile,
Research).
"The bar is quite low right now. It's not difficult to beat them," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investment Advisors LLC, referring to forecasts of 2 percent to 3 percent increases.
He noted that the forecasts were in a range of 5 percent to 6 percent a few weeks ago, but have come down dramatically amid the worries about a credit crunch and losses tied to subprime mortgages.
The economy added more jobs in September than economists had expected, while an earlier estimate of job losses in August was revised to a gain, quashing fears of recession.
"It was a very strong number, what the market was hoping for, and they got it, said Mike O'Hare, head of U.S. equity cash sales and trading for JP Morgan Chase & Co, referring to the payroll gains. "Now we have to back up this number with earnings."
DOW UP ALMOST 13 PERCENT FOR YEAR
During Friday's rally, the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) climbed to a record intraday high at 14,124.54 while the Standard & Poor's 500 (.SPX:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) hit an all-time high at 1,561.91.
The S&P 500 finished Friday's trading at a record 1,557.59.
The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) also surged on Friday, rising 1.71 percent to close at 2,780.32. Earlier, the Nasdaq advanced to 2,784.93 -- its highest level since January 2001.
And on Monday, which was October 1, the Dow ended at a record 14,087.55 -- its 33rd record close for 2007.
For the week, the Dow rose 1.2 percent, the S&P 500 jumped 2 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.9 percent.
So far this year, the Dow is up 12.9 percent, while the S&P 500 is up 9.8 percent, and the Nasdaq is up 15.1 percent.
Praveen said market interest rates should be watched for signs that the Federal Reserve's half-percentage-point cut last month in the fed funds rate target to 4.75 percent is filtering into the overall economy.
He said the spread between the fed funds rate and the London interbank offered rate has narrowed, but it needs to shrink further.
A HOLIDAY, FED MINUTES AND PPI
The schedule of economic data is a little thinner than usual, in part due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday, when government offices will be closed. The bond market will be closed on Monday, but it will be a regular trading day for stocks.
On Tuesday, minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 18 will be released. At that meeting, the Fed decided to cut interest rates half a point. Investors will study the data for any clues about a follow-up rate cut.
Wednesday brings data on wholesale inventories and the federal budget.
August trade data is due on Thursday. In a Reuters survey of economists, the median forecast calls for a deficit of $59.0 billion in goods and services trade, little changed from July.
Friday's data includes a report on the U.S. Producer Price Index in September. The median forecast is for a rise of 0.4 percent overall, and a rise of 0.2 percent, excluding food and energy.
Data on September retail sales is also due on Friday. The consensus forecast is for a rise of 0.2 percent. Excluding autos, the forecast calls for a rise of 0.3 percent.
Also on Friday, the first reading on consumer sentiment in October comes out in a report from the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. The consensus forecast is for a preliminary October reading of 84.0 in the consumer sentiment index, up from 83.4 in September.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
U.S. stocks close higher as jobs data show growth
September registers largely as expected; new August count a bullish surprise
By
Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:37 PM ET Oct 5, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks bounced higher Friday, with the S&P reaching an all-time high and the major indexes scoring solid weekly gains, after the much-awaited jobs report offered as-expected growth in September and a surprise upward revision to past counts, calming worries about the economy.
"For the time being, the sense is the sky is not falling. We have a major concern about the magnitude of the slowdown in the U.S. economy, so this is clearly good news," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
"The revision is an eye popper -- most surprising is the 93,000 jobs they somehow missed," Hogan said.
"The caveat to all this euphoria would be two-fold -- there is a large bet that the Fed cuts rates in October; that bet may now not look so advantageous. You better be careful, sometimes that light at the end of a tunnel is a train," Hogan said.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
($INDU:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last: 14,066.01+91.70+0.66%4:03pm 10/05/2007Delayed quote data
Sponsored by:
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$INDU 14,066.01, +91.70, +0.7%) ended 91.7 points ahead at 14,066.0, giving it a weekly gain of 1.2%.
Of the blue-chip index's 30 components, just four closed in the red.
Alcoa Inc.
(AA:
alcoa inc com
Last: 38.79+1.13+3.00%4:03pm 10/05/2007Delayed quote data
Sponsored by:
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AA 38.79, +1.13, +3.0%) fronted the Dow's advance, its stock up 3%. The aluminum producer late Thursday detailed $845 million in restructuring charges.
Boeing Co.
(BA:
Boeing Co.
Last: 102.25-2.25-2.15%4:01pm 10/05/2007Delayed quote data
Sponsored by:
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BA 102.25, -2.25, -2.1%) registered the largest losses on the Dow, its shares off 2.2% amid worries the aerospace giant may not meet its delivery schedule for its best-selling 787 Dreamliner.
See full story. The S&P 500
($SPX:
S&P 500 Index
Last: 1,557.59+14.75+0.96%4:59pm 10/05/2007Delayed quote data
Sponsored by:
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$SPX 1,557.59, +14.75, +1.0%) added 14.75 points to finish at 1,557.59, after hitting an all-time high of 1561.91 earlier on. The S&P climbed 2% for the week.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite
(COMP:
COMP
Sponsored by:
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COMP, , ) also scored impressive gains, climbing 46.75 points to 2,780.32, bolstered by the likes of Yahoo Inc.
(YHOO:
Yahoo! Inc
Last: 27.88+0.73+2.69%4:00pm 10/05/2007Delayed quote data
Sponsored by:
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YHOO 27.88, +0.73, +2.7%) , up 2.6%, after Sanford Co. Bernstein & Co. suggested the company should split into three parts to lift its market value.
See Tech Stocks.
The Nasdaq capped the session with a weekly advance of 2.9%.
Trading volume passed 1.2 billion on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancing stocks beating decliners more than 3 to 1. On the Nasdaq, 2 billion shares traded hands, and advancers topped declining issues about 3 to 1.
Rate cut?
The government said the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in September, but job growth was stronger than expected during the past three months, with nonfarm payrolls climbing by 110,000 in September, very close to expectations.
See full story. With the monthly unemployment report under its belt, the market's focus in part becomes deciding whether the data changes its recent view that the Federal Reserve would likely cap its two-day meeting at the end of the month with another interest-rate cut.
The Fed's half-point cut on Sept. 18 could be enough to keep the economy from sinking from the financial market turmoil, said Donald Kohn, vice chairman of the Fed Board, in a speech delivered Friday in Philadelphia.
Read the Fed.
"On the whole, the Fed is likely to see continued risks to the economy, given the sub-par pace of job growth, which means an Oct. 31 rate cut is still possible, especially given the Fed is acting preemptively to forestall economic weakness," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist, Miller Tabak & Co. LLC.
Stocks start strong
U.S. markets rise on better-than-expected jobs report.
October 5 2007: 9:32 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks opened higher after the Labor Department released a better-than-expected report on job growth in September, dampening fears of an imminent recession.
The three major gauges - The Dow Jones industrial average, the Nasdaq composite index, the Standard & Poor's index - all rose at the start of trading.
Monday should be nice again...
The report Wall Street has been waiting for is finally set to be released Friday. The government's reading on the employment sector is due before the opening bell and likely to set the tone for trading.
Ahead of the report,
futures were stronger and pointing to a positive open for Wall Street.
Traders are watching the September jobs report to see how the labor sector has been affected by the recent credit crisis, which is likely to influence Federal Reserve policy.
The government report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show a gain of 100,000 jobs after a decline in August, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
A soft report could give the Fed room to keep lowering rates - something investors are likely to cheer. Stocks have soared recently on expectations of more rate cuts. The Dow hit its highest ever earlier this week.
At the same time, investors could be rattled by a significantly weaker report, which could raise concerns about the healthy of the economy. Stocks could also pull back if a robust report dashes hopes for more cuts from the Fed.
In
global trade, Asian markets finished the session, while European stocks edged higher in morning trading.
Read this....
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
04/10/2007
Vietnam is planning to cut its purchases of US Treasuries and other dollar bonds, raising fears that Asian central banks with control over two thirds of the world?s foreign reserves may soon join the flight from US assets?
Vietnam, which has mid-sized reserves of $40bn, is seen as weather vane for the bigger Asian powers.
Together they hold $3,575bn of foreign reserves, over 65pc of the world?s total. China leads with $1,340bn, but South Korea, Taiwan,SINGAPORE, and even Thailand all built up massive holdings.
The concern is that once one or two members of the region jump ship, it could set off a broader scramble?
Separately, the gas-rich Gulf state of Qatar announced that it had cut the dollar holdings of its $50bn sovereign wealth fund from 99pc to 40pc?
?it can easily be seen as a vote of no confidence in US economic management.
The drastic shift by the Qatar Investment Authority is a warning that petro-dollar powers with some $3,500bn under management may pull the plug on the heavily endebted US economy?
Saudi Arabia set off jitters in the currency markets last month when it decided not to cut interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve?
Kuwait has already abandoned its peg?
Separately, Iran said it would soon refuse to accept dollars for its oil exports?
if the dollar roasted..sing$ will not be spare...read MM Lee in the straits times today...warning of surprise...and with the $ going downhill what are the surprises in store for us... surprise...we all know disaster ahead...
Trade carefully....try to wrong on the right side...good luck
US stocks rose slightly on Thursday, led by utility companies, as investors anticipated a government report may show employment has rebounded from the August turmoil in financial markets.
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 6.26 points, or 0.04 percent, to end at 13,974.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 3.25 points, or 0.21 percent, at 1,542.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 4.14 points, or 0.15 percent, at 2,733.57.
The
Dow Chart looks beautifully positive...
(Click to see it)
Several minor economic indicators today?, note the US Economics team, ?showed that the labor market is poised to stage a small rebound from August, though conditions remain soft? notable, the ADP employment report showed a 58,000 gain in private jobs in September, after a tepid 27,000 add in the prior month? the Challenger report also showing an improvement, though announced layoffs remain elevated, especially in the finance and construction industries? and while the non-manufacturing ISM shaved off one point to 54.8 in September, the employment index in this survey rebounded smartly - suggesting better assessment on labor among businesses?.
last 1/2 hour, GOLD just surge 10USD to 733.05 intraday high while USD/JPY took a nose dive.
Below water now.
tomorrow the NFP number looks set to be flat on forecast. Action MAY be limited.
NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose at the open on Thursday as data on jobless claims kept worries about the employment situation at bay and oil prices eased for a fifth day.
The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) was up 36.26 points, or 0.26 percent, at 14,004.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) was up 2.80 points, or 0.18 percent, at 1,542.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC:
Quote,
Profile,
Research) was up 5.84 points, or 0.21
Thats atat 'soft' opening.. : (
Dow opens positive! Now +18 points
US stocks fell on Wednesday, led by technology companies, after Morgan Stanley told investors to sell shares of Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
The Institute for Supply Management said U.S. service industries continued to grow in September, easing concern that the housing slump will end the six-year economic expansion. The ISM index of non-manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 54.8 in September from 55.8 in August.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 7.04, or 0.5 percent, to 1,539.59. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 79.26, or 0.6 percent, to 13,968.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 17.68, or 0.6 percent, to 2,729.43.
Japanese stocks volatile in early trading
By Alan Doyle
Last Update: 9:07 PM ET Oct 2, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)-- Japanese stocks were volatile Wednesday, with the Nikkei 225 wavering between positive and negative territory throughout much of the morning session.The broader-market Topix generally stayed in positive territory. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 moved back into positive numbers after losing as much as 0.12% earlier in the session.
US stocks fell on Tuesday as investors booked profits following a record reached in the previous session, but in the broader market, bank stocks and home builders gained as investors bet the worst of the credit squeeze may be over.
Despite more weak data on the housing sector, optimism that banks are working out losses from the credit market's turmoil drove banking stocks higher, while home builders' shares extended gains from the previous session that followed an upgrade from Citigroup.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 40.24 points, or 0.29 percent, to end at 14,047.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 0.41 of a point, or 0.03 percent, at 1,546.63. But the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 6.12 points, or 0.22 percent, to close at 2,747.11.
Looks like DJ bottoming out at 14030. Worst case bottom is around 14000-14005. Should end slightly lower for profit taking, perhaps around 14060-14080.
Inverted H & S, with confirmation by CMF & OBV. Beautiful indeed. Let's watch what happens to DJ for Oct 07.
Tonight's Dow will probably close lower...
But looking at the
3-Month chart, it is a beautiful sight and shows good market sentiment in the weeks ahead
