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Sembcorp marine ($5.06) — Temporary consolidation
A temporary retreat is underway. This should find support as it approaches the rising 50- day moving average at $4.87. If the market remains resilient, prices should not fall below $5. Overall, the uptrend remains intact, and is supported by the positive cross between the 50- and 100-day moving averages made about a week ago. Quarterly momentum is in positive territory, and rising.
The break above $5.14 indicates an initial target of $5.40 to $5.50 and an eventual upside of $6.20.
Sembcorp Marine: Citi maintains Buy with TP$6.10 on discussion with mgmt. Recent drillship win with Sete Brasil shows shift in co’s capabilities from jack-ups/semi-subs to drillships.
SembMarine also believes its new yard in Espirito Santo is ideally located and will be able to obtain maintenance and repair contracts near the oil-rich Tupi yields.
Demand is expected to remain firm across jack-ups, semi-subs and drillships with rigs prices to appreciate slightly resulting in higher margins. Its new yard in Sg will also be fully operational by 2013 and add $500-600m rev of high-margin repair work.
not sure if the price is right but buy at 20ema support 5.00
disclaimer : L-trader (taking some risk in today down market)
1419242 ( Date: 24-Aug-2012 01:39) Posted:
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thanks for sifu's advise~~
at which price does sifu think its a good buy?
ozone2002 ( Date: 22-Aug-2012 09:40) Posted:
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wait for dip then buy... don't chase
Sembcorp Marine: Upside potential still there
Sembcorp Marine (SMM) has been one of the top performers in the O& M space so far this year due to several reasons: 1) demand for the group’s products remain high, supported by oil prices and buoyant activities in the industry, 2) its good track record and efforts to stay ahead of the curve have positioned it well to secure new orders, 3) its strong orderbook provides defensiveness when uncertainty in the global economy has resulted in a general lack of clarity in corporate earnings outlook, and 4) contracts have been forthcoming so far this year. Looking ahead, the above-mentioned factors are likely to remain for the medium term, and we still see upside potential for the stock based on forward valuations. We are also increasing our new order win estimate to S$9.5b (from S$8.7b) as we expect more contract wins. As such, our fair value estimate increases from S$5.69 to S$6.09. Maintain BUY
ozone2002 ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 10:29) Posted:
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Sembcorp Marine BUY TP: SGD6.20 |
33.2% |
4.3% |
Below |
- Margins came in slightly below expectations, but we attribute it to timing issues |
Positive - Robust contract win momentum supports positive view on offshore activities |
- Slump in global economy resulting in lower oil prices, freezing of credit markets and oil companies hold back on spending - Lower than expected order wins - Lower than expected margins - Competition from Korean yards |
SembMarine: Secured a contract worth US$135m from Diamond Offshore for the Ocean Apex Project. Schedule for delivery in 2Q2014. The rig will be capable of operations in depth of up to 6k ft and have crew capacity of 140 personnel.
The construction will be done through utilizing an existing hull from Diamond Offshore and is a continuation of Diamond’s ongoing fleet renewal program.
ozone2002 ( Date: 14-Aug-2012 10:21) Posted:
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Del monte KETCHUP!
gd pedigree horse.. sembmar! 516
sembmar 5.07.. catching up with Kepcorp on its rally..
gd luck dyodd..
ozone2002 ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 10:06) Posted:
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Keppel Corp has secured two contracts worth a total of about
US$950m from the Petrobras-led consortiums, Guara BV and
Tupi BV, for the fabrication and integration of topside modules
on the Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels
(FPSO) P-66 and P-69. As part of the agreement, Petrobras has
an option for a similar contract to be exercised by 1Q 2014.
These latest orders bring Keppel’s FY12 YTD order wins to
S$8.5bn (vs. full year order wins assumption of S$11.2bn), and
raises its order backlog to S$14.6bn. Maintain BUY on Keppel,
TP S$13.20. Based on previous reports from Upstream, we
believe Sembcorp Marine is next in line to secure 2 of such
FPSO projects, with similar value.
5.05 sembmar playing catchup with Kepcorp's rally.. still have dividend to give out..
gd luck dyodd..
[Trading Central] Sembcorp Marine: rebound in sight.
Update on supports and resistances.
| Short Term View (Rise, Limited Rise, Consolidation, Limited Decline, Decline) |
Limited Rise |
|---|---|
| Change In Short Term View | None |
| Medium Term View (Bullish, Range, Bearish) |
Range |
| Change In Medium Term View | None |
Pivot: 4.62
Our preference: Long positions above 4.62 with targets @ 5.15 & 5.38 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 4.62 look for further downside with 4.38 & 4.18 as targets.
Comment: the RSI calls for a bounce.
Key levels
5.6
5.38
5.15
4.98 last
4.62
4.38
4.18
Order book at record S$11.6bn
At long last, Sembmarine has inked aformal contractto build five more drillships worth US$4.03bnfor Sete Brasil. This lifts its YTD new orders to S$8.1bn,for a recordorder bookof S$11.6bn. Stronger-than-expected orders could be itscatalysts.
Maintain Outperform, EPSand target price (18x CY13 P/E, +1SD of 5-year mean). YTD wins form80% of our unchanged S$10.2bn target. Backed by the current drillships, Sembmarine could be expected to be awardedmore unitsbyPetrobras.
What Happened
Sembmarine has finally signed contracts with Sete Brasil to build five more drillships for US$4.03bn.Add to that anearlier unit fromSete Brasil in Feb12, Sembmarine has won US$4.8bn drillshipcontracts fordelivery from 2Q15 to 2Q19. Each delivery will be 6-9 months apart.
What We Think
We are happy that the contracts have materialised, after a long 3-year wait. These drillships are priced 1.8% higher than the first unit. Some 35-45% of the construction workwill take place in Singapore. Construction for the first unit has started and will be20% completed and recognised by 4Q12. Management still looks forward to14-15%EBIT margins in the longer term. Assuming Sembmarine is able to bagS$4bn new orders p.a.from 2013, we expect earnings growth of 15% for 2014-16.
What You Should Do
Stay invested for more positive newsflow. Sembmarineis in the running for at least another US$3.8bn projects, including two FPSO topsides from Petrobras. Yard availability would allow itto fast-track jack-up-rig delivery in4Q13/1Q14vs.Keppel’s 3Q14.
share of thot... ...
Resistance $5.03, $5.06, $5.15 ... ...
Support $4.96
Broke... $4.93 (hovering the past few days)
Most impt , close the gap after temasek mass selling !!