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Growth stocks are all about future prospect for global economy, if data are pointing to improving picture in 2014/2015. FM would buy up stock 3-6 months in advance of everyone, late comers could only pick up the pricer stock and miss out the big capital gain. Trick is to enter at the correct time and exit when the BB exit, guarantee max return, difficult part is knowing when to enter and ability to hold.
from experience its like when analyst say tp is higher, mr market spit and make it go down.
when analyst say tp is lower, wonder what mr market react.
NOL post 1QFY13 disappointing results, CS lower its FY13 and FY14 earnings estimates by 38% and 15% respectively. Volumes and freight rates continue to weaken in most trades routes as over-capacity persists CS estimates flat volumes for NOL in 2013, with rates up ~6%, largely on account of the revenue weighting that limited Transpacific contract improvements have.
Contract setting season for the Transpacific trade lane is almost complete, and it appears that carriers have received ~US$50-100/FEU increase (30% of its proposed hikes). This has a major impact on NOL, which generates 40% of its revenue from this trade lane.
CS currently have estimates which are above the street, but maintains UNDERPERFORM with TP of $0.95 for NOL.
Tomorrow should be more of a rebounding day since STI made correction of up to 120 basically erasing this year gain. This year is one of the snake and ladder stocks jumping up and sink suddenly. Can get heart attack if trading after CNY, to summaries for 2nd half trading
1. US bond market getting heavy sell off, resulting in higher bond interest rate might take away fund from yield plays stocks since bond is always safer than stock.
2. Shifting of funds from defensive/yield play to cyclindal/growth , might be possible since US economy might pick off steam in 2nd half. But don go in yet till the big boys had thrown in the lot on NOL, need big volume transaction consistency for days before going in.
3. Currently Bull run is sponsored by QE3, once the plug is pulled off huge correction would follow so exercise caution when trading/shorting.
4. Overcapacity in container shipping peaked this year and eased off in 2014 and 2015, for those looking for fundamental fiscal result had to wait till 2014 to see a gradual improvement in profit.
5. Personnel TP if bull run spilled into growth stock 1.4X P/B $1.45-$1.50 after that if lucky might go into the 1.6X P/B range if bull go into overdrive mode.
Lastly we are in a bull run fuelled by central banks all over the world, once the economy pick off time for us to run. Currently big funds are switching out of US bonds and into other assets, the share price for NOL can surge very fast and sink as fast too so be agile and nimble when trading/short.
Heavy tanking of STI dropping 50+ within 2 hours of opening, banks/defensive/yield plays all got brutally hit. NOL ship still holding strong dropping only 0.01. Currently STI look like giving up all the gain it made this year, more selling of defensive/yield plays might stretch into end of week. Brutal session for lot of investors holding yield plays.
Defensive/ yield plays had basically gone overvalued P/B at like 3-4X, would likely return to more normal 2-2.5X so still got lot of fat to burn.
CSH123 ( Date: 29-May-2013 21:36) Posted:
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u referring to dow jones index dropping to 15000? it is like going down 180 similar to what STI and Hong kong happen today. US market still ok compared to asia market where overpriced defensive/ yield plays is posed for a correction. Today M1 tanked 0.16 and singtel 0.12, tomorrow might be starhub turn to tank soon other low beta stocks would follow, gona be ugly for those still holding to those. Well at least a correction is happening and not a major tanking session which would cause mass panic, Correction in May Go away in June still hold lol.
CSH123 ( Date: 29-May-2013 22:16) Posted:
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im looking at 15000 after the surge. will go sideways after retrace
sgng123 ( Date: 29-May-2013 21:15) Posted:
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Wahahqhahaga!!!!!! Money drop from sky, don't pick. You hold nol for long long loh.
CSH123 ( Date: 29-May-2013 21:36) Posted:
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u r sick or cruel. All your suggestions are overbought counters .What had gone up r mostly pennies or defensive plays which are luring the greedy. This period of 6 months had been a great time for gamblers. DJIA had gone up 18%. Once P/B had equalised in these counters, it will be time for correction since earnings cannot be justified with share price
ynnek1267 ( Date: 29-May-2013 20:45) Posted:
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Noble down to $1.04 today and maybe we can start seeing it dropping to sub level ( < $1.00) no government support and the rot would go on. Olam is lucky to have Temasek to back the rot and now it recover all the loss caused by Carlson block short selling. That explain why it is always safer to buy stocks with government backing in time of crisis government would used tax payer money to bail out lol. Wilmar also dangerous cos now china growth is moderating, profit might be squeezed, even though lot of brokerage recommend a buy on it.
http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/containers/article423453.ece
Another report that reported asia-europe rate might not be so weak afterall, who to believe everyone seem to had a different view of spot rate. SCFI, WCI etc , to conclude don place importance on spot rate focus on NOL outlook forcast and global economy data more reliable. Global data had shown commodities super bull run had ended, now price of iron ore, copper, oil and industrial material are all going back to normal pricing, would affect profitability of commodity traders, currently agriculture commodities not so affected but always good idea to avoid it since all commodities boom stories ended with china economy moderation. Go in commodity stocks on ur own risk and prepare to hold for years till the next bull run, very long time. Currently market hit by QE3 pullout fear so trading sentiment bad, today STI tumble down 30+ and maybe more correction to go. Singtel and M1 had each downed $0.10+ each, tomorrow maybe more. NOL still holding out, down only 0.005 it more of following the sentiment for now.
Talk talk talk. Nol is still 1.1. Talk down commodities stock? Seem like is time to load olam, noble and wilmar
sgng123 ( Date: 29-May-2013 14:08) Posted:
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Pliz load in when the trend is clear or you are able to hold for 1-2 year regardless of the performance.
Agree with u, sgng123...will avoid commodities. Tq.
i hope better result in june 2013
Should be looking for chances to load in more NOL. Wait for the bull end of the year.
China slowing down, don't think commodities will do well this year.
Just to bring out, commodity super bull run is coming to an end so don go so fast into commodities stock like noble, olam, wilmar etc. Wait for the commodities stocks to bottom out giving a 0.8P/B valuation as guide.
June coming and trading volume would be low, time to go holiday and temporary forget about market. NOL share price look like stabilising at current price range with support and resistance balanced out. Transpacific trade planning another GRI in july1 together with Europe GRI, hope this year got peak season surcharge in the summer period else going to very boring on fiscal result flat result.
US market surges 200+ due to surging consumers confidence report and improving housing report. Good news seem to be coming out of US economy nowadays, guess Fed Reserve is rite to end QE3 later this year to prevent overheating lol. If all these materialise into strong export demand from US then freight rate for transpacific would be rock solid this year and high possibility of Peak Season Surcharge in summer. Hope the good news continue to flow from now till end of this year then BB would start to move into NOL then I could start punting on it.