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Surprise uptrend!!! Cos coal in demand today!
xorion ( Date: 08-Mar-2010 09:40) Posted:
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now 2.06..
must be falling against gravity
looks like falling.
accumulate!!!..low $2..
buy when there's fear...commodities will reign..
ozone2002 ( Date: 05-Mar-2010 10:24) Posted:
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In my opinion, the new CEO on-board, production at the re-zoned Sebuku area being delayed and high loading facility cost is temp. impact to mid-long term perfromance. I believe it would be resolved one by one in coming 6 months. This stock price determined by coal demand in the market. It's a buying opportunity NOW.
MFT.
pharoah88 ( Date: 05-Mar-2010 13:17) Posted:
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China coal hunger to put a floor under prices
Fri Mar 5, 2010 9:37am GMT
By Rujun Shen and Jacqueline Wong
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's appetite for imported coal will provide a solid floor for global prices of the commodity this year, but its imports may miss last year's peak as price-sensitive buyers shy from rebounding prices.
China sucked up the excess coal supply in the Asia-Pacific market in 2009 and attracted coal from as far away as Colombia, South Africa and the United States as the economic meltdown shrivelled world demand and pulverised international prices.
This year, analysts say, China's coal consumption growth could keep pace with economic growth, forecast at 9.5 percent by a Reuters poll.
"The consensus is that China's coal output is likely to hit 3.3 billion tonnes, from last year's 3 billion tonnes," said Lu Ping, an analyst at China Merchants Securities.
"Demand is probably going to grow 8 to 9 percent, in tandem with GDP growth. Imports may fall below 100 million tonnes in 2010, unlikely to stay on last year's stunning level. It won't be as easy to buy coal from the international market as last year."
China's coal needs are mainly met by its vast domestic production. So a small variance in domestic output can trigger a big swing in imports.
With 2010 output forecast at 3.300 billion tonnes, 9 percent demand growth would imply a fall of about 10 percent in net imports, and every 1 percentage point variance in demand would raise or lower annual imports by about 30 million tonnes. If 2010 output turns out to be just 1 percent higher than that, at 3.333 billion tonnes, net imports could slump as much as 90 percent from 2009.
Asia's benchmark thermal coal prices at Australia's Newcastle port have risen nearly 30 percent since late August, peaking above $100 a tonne in January before easing to around $95, in a buying rush partly triggered by a supply crunch after China trimmed domestic output by closing small mines.
Those closures also contributed to a tenfold leap in China's net imports of higher grades of coal used in steelmaking.
"If China keeps doing what it's doing -- it doesn't have to grow, but just stay where it is -- and the United States and Western Europe and the rest of the world recover, we think that market is going to be very, very tight for the next two or three years," Teck Resources President Don Lindsay (TCKb.TO) told a recent conference call.
China registered record coal imports of 126 million tonnes in 2009, triple the 2008 level, while net imports hit 103 million tonnes, official customs data show.
The world's third-largest economy leapt back to life with economic growth of 10.7 percent in the last quarter of 2009, bolstering the outlook for coal demand, which has been buoyed by a harsh winter and the appetite of China's huge steel sector.
Chinese power demand is expected to grow 7 percent in 2010, similar to 2009, while coal output is set to rise by 5 percent from nearly 3 billion tonnes in 2009, the government's National Energy Administration said.
Traders were cautious about this year's import business.
"Coal imports will be limited in 2010, simply because whenever the Chinese buy something, the price goes up," said a coal trader based in the southern province of Guangdong.
A price spike didn't stop power generators buying in what analysts called "desperation" over winter, however. Coal imports hit a stunning 16 million tonnes in December, up sixfold from a year before, taking 2009's total imports to more than double the 2008 figure.
IMPORTS FILL THE GAP
The global market has been rocked by the sudden emergence of China as a major buyer of thermal coal, the lower quality grades used for power generation, and a commodity in which it was previously self-sufficient.
"The seaborne thermal coal trade's fortunes have become increasingly tied to those of China's domestic market, effectively linked by China's large, rising import flows," UBS analysts led by Ghee Peh said in a research note.
The bank also raised its forecast for contract thermal coal prices for the Japanese fiscal year starting on April 1, to $95 a tonne from $90, citing high demand from China and India and supply-side problems in Australia, Indonesia and South Africa.
"We'll see impact on China's imports unfold in April, when the higher contract prices take effect," one analyst said.
In Qinhuangdao, China's top coal port, prices of coal with calorific value of 5,800 kcal/kg rallied about a third from the end of August to about 745 yuan a tonne.
Seasonal demand, transport disruptions caused by cold snaps and constrained supply from coal mines pushed up the prices and will keep import levels high through the first quarter, if not longer, traders and analysts said.
Coal production may continue to be restrained in early March, as local governments keep small mines shut during the annual meeting of the country's congress, considered to be a politically sensitive period.
Supplies will also be limited by a campaign to consolidate mine ownership in the hands of a few big players in China's traditional top coal-producing province of Shanxi, a move to clean up the dangerous and polluting coal sector, plans shared by other big mining provinces.
Shanxi has signed 98 percent of acquisition contracts and more than 80 percent of mining licenses have changed hands, according to Xinhua news agency. But the capacity once provided by hundreds of small miners could take as long as a year to return to production, analysts and traders said. (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
SELL...but people are still buying today...
anyone loaded?
Straits Asia Resources: Conference call with new CEO
Summary: Straits Asia Resources Ltd (SAR) hosted a post FY09 results conference call last evening, during which its new CEO Mr Martin Purvis allayed concerns over management continuity. 70% of its FY10 output has been committed to date, but as the pricing of most of these contracts is index-linked, the group’s earnings remain exposed to price volatility. Management guided for lower thermal coal prices in the range of “high US$60s to mid US$70s” in FY10 vs. its ASP of US$82.14/ton in FY09. We expect higher production volumes to partially offset the impact of lower selling prices on the group’s revenue. On the operational front, production at the re-zoned Sebuku area looks to be delayed pending approvals from the Indonesian government, while a replacement facility for the failed Jembayan loading facility is being planned. We have fine-tuned our estimates and lift our fair value estimate to S$1.76 (from S$1.73). Maintain SELL. (Lee Wen Ching)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor detailed report.
Summary: Straits Asia Resources Ltd (SAR) hosted a post FY09 results conference call last evening, during which its new CEO Mr Martin Purvis allayed concerns over management continuity. 70% of its FY10 output has been committed to date, but as the pricing of most of these contracts is index-linked, the group’s earnings remain exposed to price volatility. Management guided for lower thermal coal prices in the range of “high US$60s to mid US$70s” in FY10 vs. its ASP of US$82.14/ton in FY09. We expect higher production volumes to partially offset the impact of lower selling prices on the group’s revenue. On the operational front, production at the re-zoned Sebuku area looks to be delayed pending approvals from the Indonesian government, while a replacement facility for the failed Jembayan loading facility is being planned. We have fine-tuned our estimates and lift our fair value estimate to S$1.76 (from S$1.73). Maintain SELL. (Lee Wen Ching)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor detailed report.
Thanks Sar-sar.
Appreciate that. :)
Rgds, Star-Trader
Hi Star-trader,
Thanks for sharing... am a follower.
Enjoy ya day.
Still a "Wait" Signal from my observation.. I hope to post this on my subscribers list soon when the buying signal is confirmed..
Thanks,
Star-Trader
below $2..cheap sale..
Fantastic price now!!!
Will load some more tomorrow, hope can it let me buy a new car.
what makes you think it will drop till 1.80 then 1.60????
Target 1.80, then 1.60. 
General Market iS CRASHING?
target price S$1.90?
Beware the ides of March. Julius Ceasar was slain. Don't get slain too!
solid! small huat!!, huat huat!!
nickyng ( Date: 04-Mar-2010 12:11) Posted:
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wow...1.97 !! Wah !! :P yuppie !! :D