Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

Hahaha May be my computer.Will try UBS summary from DJ wire...all POSITIVE reaction to latest news

DJ MARKET TALK: Biosensors +2%; New Deal Locks In Profit-UBS (2008/04/23 10:02AM) 0202 GMT [Dow Jones] Biosensors (B20.SG) +2.0% at S$0.755 as market digests news yesterday of review of agreement with Terumo Corp. Under the revised agreement, Terumo has agreed to pay Biosensors US$40 million upfront in return for more favorable revenue sharing provisions from the sale of the company''s heart stents. UBS says move is positive and means "significant future profits are locked in." Adds terms of new agreement indicate Terumo is confident of securing good portion of market share. Reiterates Buy call with unchanged S$1.25 target price, says current share price level represents attractive buying opportunity. Resistance tipped at S$0.78 (50% Fibonacci retracement of drop from Feb. 26 peak of S$0.915 to March 17 low of S$0.655). (KIG) Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150; MarketTalk@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

That D.Bank ah nair guy uses Indian software is it?

 

Tried 5 times to paste and copy..thats why had to summarise Deutsche bank's  for you. But nothing like the actual report..Never mind  you guys try to get it from your brokers both from OCBC and DB. Whatever it is its .76 now .....

 

Put your cursor on post reply page, type just a full stop, then Ctrl V. If cannot, then use your home made stuff loh. Cheers.

 

i have difficulty posting on some other threads this week when trying to copy & paste...but i tried a method...after u copy & paste already...then delete some words and retype again..it worked for me..so thought u may wish to try it

allright      ( Date: 23-Apr-2008 08:46) Posted: Tried to post OCBC (maintain call buy at $1.23 and Deutsche Bank 's analyst summary - both view the latest announcement as positive ). Somehow couldn't get through .Trying now to post to see if this goes through

 

Tried to post OCBC (maintain call buy at $1.23 and Deutsche Bank 's analyst summary - both view the latest announcement as positive ). Somehow couldn't get through .Trying now to post to see if this goes through

 

Thats mean front still bright?

 

After analysing the current relationship between BIG and Terumo, i think we may see the following deals coming out over the next few months before BIG kena takeover:

1. Extension of CE markets by another 5 years. I value this deal at around US$60 to 80m cash upfront.

2. Extension of Japan market by another 5 years. I also value this deal at around US$60 to 80m cash upfront.

As mentioned in my earlier posts, Terumo's future in DES industry hinges on securing extended licensing period from BIG. Although Japan is a smaller market compared to CE approved markets (including Asia countries), Terumo has exclusivity in Japan market. This means that BIG will not be selling Biomatrix in Japan. And i feel with Terumo's business operational strength like branding, sales channel distribution, connections with Japanese hospitals and doctors in Japan, NOBORI has the potential to corner the DES market in Japan. Plus, NOBORI is the undisputed performance leader winning all other DESs around by very wide margins in all areas of measurements. Even though Japan market is much smaller than CE approved markets, annual sales of NOBORI in Japan market could be equivalent to NOBORI sales to CE approved markets (due to no home ground advantage, fiercer compettion outside Japan and competition from BIG's Biomatrix in CE markets, etc).

I feel BIG may want to do the 2 mentioned deals with Terumo. Under today's announcement, i personally estimate BIG's original licensing royalty to be in the region of 40% of sales. The upfront US$40m cash could mean a royalty reduction from 40% to a region of around 30%. However, BIG will be very silly to do another upfront US$40m cash payment for reduced royalty of sales in Japan market. I have my reasons to say so. This is because licensing will erode away future takeover valuation. MNCs generally don't like to share technology with licensees and prefer to keep top class technology for their own use. In CE approved markets, if BIG is taken over by JNJ, JNJ with their branding power, sales channels and connections with hospitals and doctors still can handle internal competition posed by licensee Terumo. But since Japan market is exclusive for Terumo, after takeover JNJ still cannot invade into Japan market with Biomatrix. Terumo's NOBORI will still be the DES king in Japan market. As such, lowering royalties from Japan market at the expense of anothert US$40m cash is a very silly deal. We know NOBORI will surely be a big hit in Japan market. I hope BIG is able to realise this key difference and not to do a similar US$40m cash upfront deal with Terumo. It will be a short term gain but long term loss if BIG ever do such deals for Japan market territory. 

 

Still got strong sense that Bio Industries will chest up, near term, AK gut feeling. Incidentally, two of my friends had gone for heart opts last two weeks. Both younger than me leh. Sad lah, wife went to Seh Beh Loh to buy herbs for her husband this PM ah, no kid also. Now, think it over money is not king leow, health is king as substitute loh. Really, we hv to cherrish our life when we think we are still healthy. Cheers ALL friends. 

 

Hopefully as more analysts come up with their positive views BIG price will be able to move upward  due to this 'East Winds' !

 

Intel don't need clinical trials, regulatory approvals, etc to develop a product. It takes very long to develop a new stent program until commercialisation. Terumo first signed licensing agreement with BIG in 2003 and until 2008 then they manage to commercialise NOBORI. 5 freaking years!!! Some DESs never even manage to make it to commercial stage. Conor's Costar is one such example becuase their clinical trials cannot make the cut. Whole DES program is a write-off. It is not easy to produce positive clinical results, let alone the top class results we have seen in NOBORI (biomatrix) stent program. If Terumo can pay US$40m upfront, they are very serious that NOBORI DES will be their next main revenue and profit contributor over the next 10 years. I think Terumo can corner at least 2/3 of Japan DES market. End of 2008 we should see NOBORI approval in Japan. I give Terumo 2 years after approval to capture 2/3 market share in Japan. Japan DES market is currently worth around US$600 to 700m a year. I believe Terumo can get US$400m annual sales out from Japan market alone when they corner the Japan market. Direct sales, no commissions paid to distributors or other sales agent. Terumo is king in Japan and so will NOBORI DES. Plus, every DES Terumo sell, they will be selling their own in-house stent delivery system. Each will cost about US$1,000 per set. All the profits of delivery system goes straight to Terumo's own pocket. But to sell this delivery system, you need a top class stent to drive the sales of your own delivery system. So Terumo still can make a lot of money even if they are paying BIG 30% royalty from sales. FYI, each DES is selling at around US$2,000 on average and the cost of manufacturing is around US$200 to 400, depending on your manufacturing volume. Maybe in Japan they are selling for US$2,500 since buying anything in Japan is always more expensive than other countries. 

 

sorry last one as number 4) signals that terumo expects strong sales of its NOBORI stents

 

Deutsche Bank 's analyst Pyari Menon views the company announcement as positive given that:-

1) biosensors gets much needed cash to fund current growth

2) Remove some potential risks in case the NOBORI stents don't sell strongly

3) Still maintains a licensing structure whereby it will benefit from sales of NOBORI stents 3)signals that Terumo expects trong sales of its NOBORI stents.

Maintains BUY call

 

I think there should have some more of these deals coming along. Terumo should act fast if they believe in this product. They will be caught in a position if Bio kanna takeover. what Bengster says sound logical.

 

bro...this is a medical product ...not computer chip lar.....

BB just dont want this guy to move man..... they are still collecting i think....

 

Hi Bengster, thanks for t info.

I m no expert in this field. But after 5years, isn't it time to look for a new version/product? Thinking on the line of intel chip.

If I m Terumo, will also not commit any further. Your comment pls.

 

I believe got more such deals coming. Terumo will not feel safe with only 5 years of licensing agreement with BIG. BIG is a takeover target (after LEADERS trial results) and if BIG kena takeover by JNJ or MDT, Terumo's licensing confirm will be terminated 5 years later at expiry. Terumo has spend quite a bit doing clinical trials. The lastest involving NOBORI phase 2 involving 3,000 real life patients (some with more complex issues). They also did NOBORI 1 phase 1 and 2, NOBORI CORE, NOBORI p-k, etc. Terumo has invested so much in their stent program and 5 years licensing only is a huge risk to them.

Same for Terumo's Japan market. 5 years licensing will not be enuf. BiolimusA9 and PLA biodegradable formula should be able to have a life span of 10 years in the DES industry. Dont say US$40m for CE market, US$80m cash to extend another 5 more years in CE market Terumo will also pay. Then what about the Japan territorial rights? OK pay another US$40m cash up front deal again. Walau, its our home base, we cannot lose our home base. How? Just pay another US$80m cash to secure full 10 years for Japan territorial rights. If Terumo don't settle this thing fast, they may be caught dead when takeover really happens. JNJ/MDT and DES majors will never extend their licensing agreements. BIG is a small company and pay money still can negotiate things. JNJ don't need your money. They want full market dominance all for themself. Licensees will be treated like parasites and competition. Thats the key difference.    

If Terumo feels this way, what about the other licensees Xtent and Devax who are about to get their CE Mark somewhere mid-2008? They may want top do similar deals with BIG as well. What if BIG kena taken over by a DES rival and our whole stent business only has 5 years of remaining life left? The going concern of Xtent and Devax will be a grave issue to them.  

 

 

seems like all china stocks got the pumping effect.... think BIG will get some power later too... maybe not strong but can't be hovering at 0.735....

 

I DUN BELIEVE......

 

Agree with Maxximo. Apart from the adverse market situation, there is only a small crowd that can really appreciate potential of BIG. Among these people some have long been converted to shortists after going through all the 'trials & tribulations', leaving the balance of die-hards like us. It is said many times one day shortists would be hurt so much and at the same time die-hards will run laughing to the bank. This fateful/eventful day has yet to come and no sign of it in the near term yet.(This is certainly a fertile ground for BBs to accumulate openly.)

US$40m is a big sum of money for a company who have been in red for a quite awhile. The reason for this extraordinary income is even more appealing; signalling more  such income to come.  But what the heck,  nothing about the price move at all ! Worst, at the some stage there is sign of it going the reverse way.

Must the market really see a concrete takeover offer & acceptance for BIG to really vroom... Sigh.

 

Ya lor. US$ some more leh. S$55m cash profit. Thats S$55,000,000/=. A lot of listed companies never even see before half of this amount in their bank accounts.