Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

BIG coming soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

duno why your name keep changing cos no LP

 

Exercise price is at 70cts, not 52cts. Your claim of BIG profitable by late 2009 is misleading again. FY2009 ends at 31/03/2009 and end 2009 is already near the end of FY2010. In the very first month of FY2009, BIG already booked profit of US$8m. BIG could have booked the full US$40m this quarter since the US$40m cash will be received this month. BIG is practising very conservative accounting practice. Im sure Jade's Antony Soh would love to book his US$1B coal mining profits net profit immediately for revaluation gain but unfortunately he cannot. BIG placed out shares for acquisition of China JWMS and PT Fondaco only. But these acquisition targets are profit generating subsidiaries and BIG do such share swaps deals for business strategic reasons as well. Nobody can fault BIG on such acquisitions like JWMS. Employee share options granted are less than 2% outstanding shares over the past year and so many listed companies have many share options also. Many companies renumerate/motivate their key personnel to perform well by granting them shre options and such practice has been around for years already. 

 

television Joined: 23 Apr 2008 Posts: 42

Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 10:53 am    Post subject: i M A NEWBIE NOTICE big listed since 2005 ipo about 70cts but till todate so many placement out and so many share options granted and co sill losing $$$.no future liao even write all the beautiful rept can't move this stock. Ang must have a lot of interest in this losing $$$ stock.Hope it will shoot up for the many investors who have lost $$$ on this BIG .Can pple here share thier losses and gains or BIG here..I think >losers than winners,hope I'm wrong

television Joined: 23 Apr 2008 Posts: 42

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:56 pm    Post subject: Sinostar at 32cts worth collecting Any advice? or collect Biosensor better someone in sharejunction say it may hit $1.40 by june

Happyday/787180/Television, when will you stop slandering me? I have already given my full analysis on LEADERS trial "chiong factor" and a few weeks ago already pushed backed my TP of $1.40 to early Nov 2008 after the Oct TCT2008 announcement of LEADERS trial. Are you sure you are so new and "virgin" to forums?  Come out lah Happyday/787180/etc (duno why your name keep changing), don't need to hide behind your Television set lah.     If you have bad points to say about BIG, just say it. But must be backed be facts and good analysis. Don't need resort to slandering again.

television      ( Date: 04-May-2008 23:11) Posted: 14.18mil share options granted says the BIG announcement and the exercise price is only 52cts this means > share flooding the mkt plus the private placement issued total .1 billion,and BIG is only to be profitable by late 2009,like this die liao,how to go up

 

11:02:00	0.710	10,000	Sell Down
11:00:46	0.710	175,000	Sell Down
10:58:47	0.710	100,000	Buy Up

175,000 should be buy up not sell down (Kuning) sleeping.

 

Television the price is US.52cts which is sgd.70cts, Am posting this about abbot ..is this good news for Biosensors?
What's Abbott Xience Stent Worth? Rise to $70 a Share (Update3)
2008-05-01 16:55 (New York)


    (Adds closing shares in the sixth paragraph.)

By Lisa Rapaport and Michelle Fay Cortez
    May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Abbott Laboratories may seize more
than a third of the $4 billion market for heart stents when its
Xience is approved. That's enough to drive the shares to a 10-
year high.
    Sales of drug-covered stents used to prop open clogged
arteries plunged 40 percent, and doctors turned to older, bare-
metal versions, after studies in 2006 showed they can trigger
clots and increase death rates. Research released in the last
year found Xience is more effective, persuading doctors to
resume use of the drug-coated products.
    Abbott anticipates U.S. approval of Xience in mid-2008. The
performance of the device in patient tests is likely to help it
grab market share from Boston Scientific Corp., Johnson &
Johnson, and Medtronic Inc. As a result, Abbott may surge 33
percent to $70 a share over the next year as doctors embrace
Xience, said Jan David Wald, a Stanford Group analyst. Stephen
O'Neil, with Hilliard Lyons in Louisville, Kentucky, says Abbott
may reach $75 within two years because of the stent.
   ``With Xience, Abbott has gone from being a wannabe to one
of the most important players,'' said Wald, a Boston-based
device analyst, in an interview. ``Abbott is going to trade as a
stent company and rise on the success of Xience.''
    Xience will garner about 36 percent of the global drug-
coated stent market by next year, said Larry Biegelsen, an
analyst with Wachovia Capital Markets in New York, in a note to
clients. Xience will add about $1.5 billion, or 46 cents a
share, to Abbott's earnings by 2012, he said. The market peaked
near $5 billion in 2006.

                             Shares

    Abbott, of Abbott Park, Illinois, rose 82 cents to $53.57
at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The
company dropped 6 percent in the last 12 months.
    Technology advantages will make Xience the top seller, said
Samin Sharma, director of interventional cardiology at Mount
Sinai Medical Center in New York. Sharma, who implants about
5,000 stents a year, said 60 percent of his procedures will use
Xience.
    ``Abbott is the clear winner,'' Sharma said in an
interview. ``Xience is the closest to the ideal stent available
for the next several years.''
    Medtronic spokesman Joe McGrath declined to say how much
market share Xience may command. ``In order to gain any market
share, it will have to come to market first,'' McGrath said in
an interview.

                       Sharing the Gain

    Boston Scientific will share some of Abbott's gain because
the company will sell a version of Xience called Promus, said
spokesman Paul Donovan.
    J&J spokesman Chris Allman also wouldn't comment on how
much market share Xience would grab. J&J's Cypher stent ``has
the largest clinical body of evidence of any drug-eluting
stent,'' he said in a statement.
    Stents are tiny metal mesh tubes that keep arteries open
after doctors clear clogged vessels in a procedure called a
balloon angioplasty. The devices are coated with a chemical
polymer and drugs to prevent the growth of tissue re-blocking
the artery, the main complication of older bare-metal models.
    The $3,000 drug-coated stents almost completely displaced
bare-metal versions in the U.S. in 2005. Boston Scientific's
Taxus and J&J's Cypher, both drug-coated products, were used in
almost 9 out of every 10 U.S. procedures in the first quarter of
2006.

                       Doctor Attitudes

    J&J and Boston Scientific have both said the proportion of
stent surgeries done with drug-covered versions rose in the
first quarter of 2008, the first hint new data is already
changing doctor's attitudes.
    Each percent rise in the share of operations done with
coated stents adds $30 million to the U.S. market, and every
percentage gain in the number of total procedures adds another
$15 million, according to Boston Scientific research.
    ``The market is turning around now that the data is almost
overwhelmingly about the safety of drug-coated stents,'' said
Gregg Stone, head of cardiovascular research at Columbia
University Medical Center in New York, in an interview. ``By the
end of the year we will easily see more than 70 percent of
surgeries done with drug-coated stents.''
   Drug covered stents won't be used quite as much as they were
before clot risks were revealed because some patients won't be
able to take anti-clotting drugs such as Bristol-Myers Squibb
Co.'s Plavix, said A. Michael Lincoff, vice chair of the
department of cardiovascular medicine at the Cleveland Clinic in
Ohio, in an interview.

                     `Not a Good Candidate'

   ``There's a real risk of clots when patients stop Plavix,
and any patient likely to be noncompliant with that therapy
isn't a good candidate for a drug coated stent,'' Lincoff said.
    In 2009, U.S. stent sales will rise 5 percent to $1.7
billion, Biegelsen says. Xience, and a version of the same
product marketed by Boston Scientific under the name Promus,
will gain 40 percent of that revenue, he said. Medtronic's drug-
coated Endeavor stent will grab 20 percent, and Taxus will take
29 percent, leaving Cypher with 11 percent.
    Bruce Nudell, an analyst with UBS Investment Research in
New York, paints a slightly more optimistic picture of the
longer term prospects for Cypher and Taxus, though he too sees
the older devices losing share to new competitors.
     Boston Scientific's share of the U.S. market will drop to
32 percent by 2010, from 55 percent last year, Nudell said in a
note to clients. By 2010, Abbott will capture 30 percent of the
market, and Medtronic will gain 20 percent, leaving about 18
percent to Johnson & Johnson.
    Boston Scientific and Johnson & Johnson say they have long-
term data that will help them compete with Abbott and Medtronic.
New studies show their stents are particularly effective for
high-risk patients, such as those with diabetes.

*T
For related news:
Stories on U.S. earnings {TNI US ERN <GO>}
To track U.S. earnings {BBEA 9 <GO>}
Stories on U.S. stocks {NI USS <GO>}
Most-read stories on J&J {JNJ US <Equity> MCN <GO>}
*T

--Editors: Reg Gale, Michael Waldholz

To contact the reporters on this story:
Lisa Rapaport in New York at +1-212-617-3824 or
Lrapaport1@bloomberg.net
Michelle Fay Cortez in Minneapolis at +1-952-475-6840 or
mcortez@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Reg Gale at +1-212-617-2563 or
rgale5@bloomberg.net.

 

Simply, BIG future still bright, most b4 2010. But more clearer picture will be printed in 2008 forecast to be made known later. Tks for the sifus.

 

14.18mil share options granted says the BIG announcement and the exercise price is only 52cts this means > share flooding the mkt plus the private placement issued total .1 billion,and BIG is only to be profitable by late 2009,like this die liao,how to go up

 

I got the sales and profit forecast from webcast conference immediately after BIG's CE approval, which was given by the CFO. So i thought they are refering to "Company" level only. Sometimes it can be quite vague but if they mentioned the word "The Group", it technically would mean the overall net performance of the Group's subsidiaries, including JWMS. Otherwise, they would just have said "The Company". This is how accounting reporting is done to differentiate "Group VS Company" level. In such a case, we have to assume BIG is refering to the Group level with 50% JWMS. The other 50% has not been completed yet so should not be included in their forecast when the mention it. Otherwise, they should mention the inclusion of second 50% of JWMS to be make things more specific. Sometimes it can be quite blur, like when the media interviewed LYC, he said he expects BIG to capture 10% of DES market share by 2010. Is LYC including all licensees like Terumo's NOBORI sales? Is he including China JWMS's EXCEL DES (and at what ownership percentages)? BIG structured the second JWMS deal into 30% outright acquisition and 20% put option to WeiGao. In any case, i think it is far too conservative to say BIG will lose money in H1 of FY2009 and possibly make some profit in H2 of FY2009. I personally believe the end result of FY2009 profit figures should be very much higher than the forecast they gave us. Lets see if BIG can provide us even clearer FY2009 forecast this month when they report the full FY2008 results.

 

don't think it will take too long leaping to the next level. vested.

 

Simply, 0.7 for this stock is good buy, for long term, but not that long loh. Expecting to see profit by mid 2009. Now, is how u feel the market trend. You may make few cts if market gradully up trend, if not buy and keep loh. Your choice.

 

Hi bengster, you mentioned that the projections given by BIG does NOT include profit contribution coming in from JWMS for FY2009. Is this true..?

I was trying to check the Q3FY08 financial statement to search for this fact. It appears to me that even for Q3FY08 reporting, Biosensors has been using the equity method to account for the 50% ownership of JW Medical. In the same report, there was a statement at the end saying that "The Group expects to record revenues of between US$100 million to US$115 million for fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (FY2009). The Group believes that it will continue to incur operating losses during the first half of FY 2009 (the six-month period ending 30 September 2008), but will be in a position to break-even or turn a small profit late in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2009."

And because this Q3 report appeared (4th Feb 2008) after the agreement (9th Jan 2008) to buy over the remaining share of JW Medical, isn't there a possibility that Biosensors had already factored in the revenue from the entire JW Medical when they made this US$100 million to US$115 million forecast in this Q3 report?

Can you confirm this fact. Of course long term investors should be ecstatic if this is true. Looking at the situation in China and positive resutls from CREATE trial, it appears JW Medical is in good position to capture a larger share of the market..

 

Did Enporis greenz have related to Bionsensors... 

 

Employee share options are common renumeration to motivate employees to work even harder to to improve the bottomline (profit) and thus in return, improving company's share price.

I mentioned before that BIG's earlier forecast are way too conservative and it gives only their own internal business operation projections. If you study BIG's business model carefully, a large part of BIG's business is on licensing. This is where the recent US$40m cash profit came from. The US$40m cash came because Terumo had CE approval also. So the US$40m cash is the beginning of the powerful effects of CE approval to this company. This US$40m is not possible without BIG having CE approval. So, the projections given by BIG does NOT include this US$40m profit and also profit contribution coming in from JWMS for FY2009. I have already calculated that US$8m (US$40m / 5 years) plus at least US$25m (JWMS net profit for FY2009), giving us a profit of at least US$33m above what BIG has projected earlier for FY2009. I feel this company is not giving shareholders good projections on profit guidance. Its very stupid investor relations method for them to give such low projections as BIG has to learn how to sell this compant to attract more institutional investors. Plus the US$40m cash will be used to further penetrate into Asia and CE approved markets so i expect to see better than expected sales projections for FY2009.

With the CE approval cleared, i expect Xtent and Devax to get their CE within the next couple of months (BIG being the main technology licensor for BiolimusA9 and PLA biodegradable polymer got their CE approval). CE has much lesser excuse to delay BIG's other licensee's CE approval. Plus, licensing agreements can further be renegotiated like what we have seen with BIG and Terumo on the recent US$40m amendment of royalty structure. Thus, i expect more things to come from BIG's licensing busines model. BIG still has Biomatrix-Freedom DES (polymer free) and 100% fully biodegradable DES (no BMS backbone) still haven't awarded any licensing deals yet. Such deals are easily worth tens of millions US$ based on per territory basis of structuring the deals and usage of this technology. I believe institutional investors will soon realise BIG's potential and take a second look at this grossly undervalued company. They have been too myopic to focus on BIG's past losses (due to CE delay) but fail to realise BIG's powerful business model via licensing. This is how small and technologically advanced companies make money very quickly. I also expect "patent breach settlement" income which can run into over US$100m per case of patent breach plus future royalties from sales. No analysts covering BIG can see this potential source of future income. They probably value the most important patent in the DES industry (any limus drug on biodegradable polymer) as zero value. But we can't quite blame the analysts for giving such low profit projections because in the first place, it was BIG that didn't know how to provide profit procast to the analysts.   

Maxximo      ( Date: 03-May-2008 19:41) Posted: I think the grant option should be part of their remuneration package ... my guess???  Below extracted from BIG's 3rd Qtr results ending Dec'07: " BioMatrix DES is expected to be launched in April 2008, which is the first quarter of fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (Q1 FY 2009), and the NOBORI DES is expected to be launched in a similar time frame. The Company believes that revenues from BioMatrix sales will represent a major portion of the product sales in the second half of fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (H2 FY 2009). The Group expects to record revenues of between US$100 million to US$115 million for fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (FY 2009). The Group believes that it will continue to incur operating losses during the first half of FY 2009 (the six-month period ending 30 September 2008), but will be in a position to break-even or turn a small profit late in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2009." Thus, with the recent US$40 million revenue injected within 30 days, BIG may even report break even or with profit starting 1st Qtr for FY09 and will no longer be in any operating losses scenerio ... so personally, i think it is definetly worth taking position at the current pricing level and play the waiting game. But again, it is also a fact that BIG pricing movement is not encouraging despite all the positive news. Well, hope the coming FY08 full year results that is due soon(Maybe near end May) will come with some encouraging forward looking statement from the board and thus, moving the price northwards again ..... just hopes .... Cheers ... and hope no more stupid bad new from the US ..... Above is not an inducement to trade.         ote from

 

I think the grant option should be part of their remuneration package ... my guess???

 Below extracted from BIG's 3rd Qtr results ending Dec'07:

" BioMatrix DES is expected to be launched in April 2008, which is the first quarter of fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (Q1 FY 2009), and the NOBORI DES is expected to be launched in a similar time frame. The Company believes that revenues from BioMatrix sales will represent a major portion of the product sales in the second half of fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (H2 FY 2009).

The Group expects to record revenues of between US$100 million to US$115 million for fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (FY 2009). The Group believes that it will continue to incur operating losses during the first half of FY 2009 (the six-month period ending 30 September 2008), but will be in a position to break-even or turn a small profit late in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2009."

Thus, with the recent US$40 million revenue injected within 30 days, BIG may even report break even or with profit starting 1st Qtr for FY09 and will no longer be in any operating losses scenerio ... so personally, i think it is definetly worth taking position at the current pricing level and play the waiting game. But again, it is also a fact that BIG pricing movement is not encouraging despite all the positive news.

Well, hope the coming FY08 full year results that is due soon(Maybe near end May) will come with some encouraging forward looking statement from the board and thus, moving the price northwards again ..... just hopes ....

Cheers ... and hope no more stupid bad new from the US .....

Above is not an inducement to trade.

 

 

 

 

ote from

 

PAE I had the same problem a few weeks ago and thought it was my computer. Can anyone help explain if   this grant of employee option is good for BIG's share price?( the exercise price is at .70cts). IS BIG buying from the market to grant to the employees (kept until they exercise) or are these new shares issued and therefore there is a dilution.? Sorry I am very blur so forgive me if this seems very elementary to the others.I never understand when a  company grants options to employees why its good for some companies and not good for the others. Please explain the possible different ways.And in BIG's case is this good for BIG? i.e shows confidence by CEO etc?

 

BIG can export EXCEL DES to flood the world market with cheap and good DES. Save the world and do charity work. Sell it at half the price of all DES rivals already can make tons of money for JWMS. I say BIG should export it at 25% the price of rival DES!!! Save the world and make DES more accessible for all!      Why pay so much more for a durable polymer with low performance? Its only the MNC branding and "kick-backs" to doctors that patients are spending their money on.

 

Grant Of Options Pursuant To The Biosensors Employee Share Option Scheme 2004

http://biosensors.listedcompany.com/news.html/id/65962

 

Okay, now i see my post.

Not sure why the link I gave earlier does not work.

If interested, do a search on google for "Clinical events appear few after stenting with Chinese made DES but are they?"

Click on the first link. This should work although it's the same link.

 

I have been trying to post in this thread several times now but do not see any of my posting. Does anyone face the same problem?

 

EXCEL uses BIG's S-stent platform, a tested and proven BMS. CREATE's MACE rate at 6 months and 12 months are 1.8% and 2.7%. TLR at 6 and 12 months are 0.8% and 1.2%. Looks very very stunning. A bit too good to be true though. But KNN even the cheap Made-in-China DES can beat Xience, the future global market leader, the ang moh under the payroll of BSX and ABT surely must cow pei cow bu kelong.