Wilmar Intl    Last:3.09    +0.03

Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!

Wilmar (F34.SG) is up 4.2% at $3.45 despite several analysts saying 1Q13 net profit of US$315.4 million ($388 million), up 23.3% on-year, was only in line with forecasts.

" The market had been overly pessimistic and now that is being reflected in the share price," says Ben Santoso, an analyst at DBS Vickers. " They were expecting the merchandising and processing profits to be lower," he notes, with Wilmar reporting around US$40/ton margin in palm & lauric after securing low cost feedstock in 4Q12, while peers' margins were much lower.

He notes delayed soybean shipments into China also boosted 1Q13 production prices and crushing margins there. But he adds, whether the CPO feedstock secured in 4Q would still be visible in 2Q is a concern he expects refining margins to come down given new capacity coming on stream in Indonesia, which will drive down cooking segment prices.

He also notes soybean oil prices in China have fallen " dramatically," meaning the 2Q crushing-margin outlook is negative. " All in all, it's slightly better than expected, but the outlook doesn't seem to support continued strength in terms of the fundamentals. I am more inclined to not be too overly optimistic yet." He doesn't expect the stock to rise beyond his $3.72 target.  ...Last Done: $3.42...

 

General market outlook still favors Wilmar... Low CPO prices containment of bird flu in china weak oil prices... Like a house call on SMM... It is a good time to pick up a quality stöck on the cheap....

 

... yes...at this level... should be more upside potential than down....

tonylim      ( Date: 08-May-2013 13:23) Posted: Looks like there is more upside according to some (TP3.90) guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 08-May-2013 09:40) Posted:   ...the following call is not correct....Wilmar at $3.2x is likely a good buy...     ...impossible to correct all the time... so long more and more correct than wrong is good enough... Wilmar: Bearish Setup! (Short Sell) Author: stistocktrading     |     Publish date: Tue, 7 May 21:56 Bearish Setup: Ascending triangle in play with low volume, accompanied with boillinger squeeze! Entry price: $3.26 with volume exceeding 10 million by 12pm! Stop loss: $3.37 Profit target: 3 Reward to Risk ratio: 2.4 Note: Q1 2013 Wilmar International Ltd Earnings Release tomorrow!

 

Looks like there is more upside according to some (TP3.90)

guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 08-May-2013 09:40) Posted:   ...the following call is not correct....Wilmar at $3.2x is likely a good buy...     ...impossible to correct all the time... so long more and more correct than wrong is good enough... Wilmar: Bearish Setup! (Short Sell) Author: stistocktrading     |     Publish date: Tue, 7 May 21:56 Bearish Setup: Ascending triangle in play with low volume, accompanied with boillinger squeeze! Entry price: $3.26 with volume exceeding 10 million by 12pm! Stop loss: $3.37 Profit target: 3 Reward to Risk ratio: 2.4 Note: Q1 2013 Wilmar International Ltd Earnings Release tomorrow!

 

  ...the following call is not correct....Wilmar at $3.2x is likely a good buy...

    ...impossible to correct all the time... so long more and more correct than wrong is good enough...

---

Wilmar: Bearish Setup! (Short Sell)

Author: stistocktrading     |     Publish date: Tue, 7 May 21:56

Bearish Setup: Ascending triangle in play with low volume, accompanied with boillinger squeeze!

Entry price: $3.26 with volume exceeding 10 million by 12pm!

Stop loss: $3.37

Profit target: 3

Reward to Risk ratio: 2.4

Note: Q1 2013 Wilmar International Ltd Earnings Release tomorrow!

 

 

Good news and hope Wilmar will move up today

Octavia      ( Date: 08-May-2013 08:10) Posted: Singapore palm oil firm Wilmar International Ltd reported a 23 per cent rise in first-quarter net profit on Wednesday, largely due to a recovery in its oilseeds and grains segment. The company also said the bird flu outbreak in China will affect meal consumption in the short term but it remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the country. Wilmar posted net profit of US$315.4 million for the three months ended March, up from US$255.9 million a year earlier and above the US$291 million average estimate from four analysts polled by Reuters. While palm oil prices are likely to remain low, affecting the plantation division's profitability, the declining price trend is expected to benefit the downstream businesses, Wilmar said. -- REUTERS

 

When a company starts to lose, it is when you start to forget about it. Don't look back.

 

 

  Group Financial Performance by Business Segment
Sales Volume of Key Segments
Sales Volume
                                                                                          1Q2013                            1Q2012              Inc
                                                                                        MT'000                        MT'000        %

  Sugar
- Milling                                                                            97                                85                          14.1%
- Merchandising & Processing        1,210                      495                    144.4%                        ???

 

 

 




  The sugar milling season in Australia typically commences in June and it is normal for
the Milling division to incur losses due to plant maintenances carried out in the first two
quarters of the year. Milling reported a pretax loss of US$55.7 million compared to a
pretax loss of US$58.0 million in 1Q2012. Excluding non-operating items, pretax loss
decreased 11% to US$53.3 million (1Q2012: US$59.9 million pretax loss). The smaller
loss was mainly due to higher unrealized gain in derivatives from lower sugar prices
and improved margins in ethanol

IS it ready normal ?????

 

 

How Wilmar will benefit from Malaysia's B5 biodiesel order

New mandate rolls out  mid-2014.

According to CIMB, Malaysia is on track  to implement B5 by mid-2014 and  B10 thereafter. A RM300m grant to  build biodiesel blending and storage facilities and the proposed extension of the diesel subsidy to the biodiesel sector have been approved. There are also plans for the B5 and B10adoption to cover the commercial sector, which do not currently enjoys fuel subsidy.

CIMB noted that its key pick  in the sector is Wilmar which is expected to be less affected by the weaker CPO  price prospects as it derives most of its earnings from refining CPO products. 

Here's more:....

 

UOB Kay Hian has Technical Buy Call with $3.60 TP. House note that the stock appears to be supported near its resistance-turned-support level near $3.25 and looks poised to break above its downward sloping trendline. Its Stochastics has moved out of its oversold region and its MACD indicator has formed a bullish crossover. House institutional research has a fundamental BUY with a target price of $3.80.

 

Wilmar announced new 51/49 JV with Tereos, to acquire and operate a corn starch facility in Tieling, Liaoning province, with a current annual processing capacity of 700k tons of corn. Both companies previously sealed a partnership in 2011 for wheat based starch and derivatives pdtn. The latest invmt will enable the pdtn of a range of starches based on both wheat and corn for the Chinese market by 2014. Since 2010, China has become the world’s leasing mkt for starch, accounting for 30% of global consumption. The consumption of isoglucose in China has increased 4-fold over the past 6 yrs, climbing to 11% of all sugar consumed. Wilmar continues to express its positive industry view by expanding its China agri and sugar ambitions. The stock trades at 1.2x P/B, 13.6x P/E.

 

Grp has acquired a strategic 27.5% stake in Cosumar SA, a Morocco-based sugar producer – for MAD2.3b (US$263m), funded by internal funds and bank borrowings. Wilmar believes that Cosumar provides the group with the opportunity to service a large and growing structural deficit in sugar in Morocco and the surrounding regions of Southern Europe, Northern and Western Africa. OCBC note that the latest acquisition dovetailing nicely with Wilmar’s strategy of becoming a global sugar player, and the near-term impact is likely going to be muted by still-weak sugar prices. Weaker sugar prices notwithstanding, house believe that Wilmar’s large distribution network in China puts the group in a good position to capitalize on the expected increase in sugar consumption there. Overall, house maintain BUY with an unchanged S$3.90 fair value (based on 15x FY13F EPS)

 

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses after an unexpected drop in U.S. leading indicators added to concern a recovery in the world’s biggest economy is stalling. Mining companies rose as commodity prices rebounded. ...Last Done:$3.29...[link]

 

CIMB is positive on Wilmar’s Moroccan sugar acquisition. “Wilmar’s acquisition of a strategic 27.5% stake in Cosumar gives the group exposure to the regulated Moroccan sugar industry and access to Africa’s structurally sugar-deficient market. It can add value by introducing better techniques for farming and procuring raw sugar.” It views the asset valuations are fair, estimating the deal values Cosumar at US$956 million ($1.05 billion), representing a historical P/E of 11X, below the 14X-17X historical P/E for leading Malaysian sugar refiner MSM Malaysia. It expects the deal to enhance Wilmar’s future earnings base by around 1% in FY14. It keeps the stock at Outperform with $3.74 target. The stock is up 0.6% at $3.29

 

 

China's bird flu fears hit soya bean trade, said Wilmar International execu spokesman. Soya beans prices has declined 23% since reaching a record US$17.89c in September. "Wilmar's forecast may help push prices lower."
Last done n closed at $3.34c.

 

Wilmar to reduce dependence on China: UOB-KayHian

Wilmar will gradually reduce its dependence on China, UOB KayHian says, noting the mainland's share of revenue has dropped to 47% in 2012 from 2009's 55%. " While Southeast Asia (especially Indonesia and Vietnam) was the main driver in the last three years, India, Eastern Europe and Africa will drive revenue going forward." It notes Wilmar plans expansion in Ghana and Nigeria as fast-emerging markets. It notes capex ahead will be focused on new markets, especially Africa, to grow the upstream palm operations, palm value chain and consumer packs. The house expects the investment in African upstream palm operations to start contributing in three years. It rates the stock Buy with $3.80 target. The stock is down 0.9% at $3.32.

...Last Done: $3.35... 

 

...vol (1,760) not that high.... transacted value ($3.344) only a small discount....

.... this married deal should not have much effect .... 

LikeWise      ( Date: 10-Apr-2013 22:38) Posted: This married deal looks like it will bring price further down rite?

 

This married deal looks like it will bring price further down rite?