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hi kp8888,
would like to hear your views on the current market? :)
The STI or any mkts are controlled by BBs and analysts are merely servicing their respective pay masters
The BBs will decide when to stop the musicial chair so as a small fly we must know how to recognise the danger signs before market crush
Actually when it comes to the stock market, all are equal... :)
Even a monkey or baboon can have a go, too...
and be right... ie. when it is lucky in its call.
well, for what it's worth, this 'PSLE ungraduated' here thinks that STI will rise up on wed. :)
so far i felt that most analysts are not worth their weight. One kind will first predict STI target 3200 by end of this year, then revise it 100 pts higher when STI hit that target 2 weeks ago. Then another 100pts, then another, then another. None will actually stand-by their earlier prediction. This actually set me to think why are there people willing to pay these so-called "analyst" doing GUESSING game? I do agree that no one can ever forsee into the future, so analysts are merely the "graduated blind (with MBA, MSC, etc...)" leading the "ungraduated blind (only PSLE level)" - just take their word with a "teaspoon" of salt.
will there be a CNY rally? some thing from DBS Vickers
With part of the positives in corporate tax cut offset by the rise in
cost from higher CPF contributions, we estimate the net increase to earnings is 2%, raising our net earnings growth from 14.2% to 16.2% for 2007 for the Singapore market. A series of earnings and target upgrades over the past quarter led to our new bottom-up STI target of 3360, and including the fiscal boost from the budget, we have raised our 12-month STI target to 3430. This translates into target P/E of 18.1x (FY07) earnings.
Business Times 14 February 2007 - Room for optimism in equities
Central banks may fret about complacency in equity markets given strong returns of the last few years but Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management's chief Asian strategist Marshall Gittler says there is good reason for optimism, particulary over Asian and the emerging markets.
"We can look with confidence. Valuations look reasonable: They are quite cheap relative to earnings growth. In most countries, the likelihood is that growth will surprise on the upside. I believe the opprtunities will outweigh the risks."
He reckons the global economy is entering an era akin to post-World Warr 2, as the integration of emerging markets into the world economy spurs a rise in productivity."
Mr Gittler is telling clients to overweight equities , in particular Asia and emerging markets. There are distinctions that he sees between investing in Asia against Latin America and the EMEA bloc (Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa) and these have a bearing on the risks. Asia he says is a secular growth story. Latin America and EMEA are seen as "cyclical growth stories with a secular element"
Price earnings and price to book multiples in Asia are similar to the rest of emerging markets, but earnings per share growth is "significantly better and we expect the secular story to carry on". The return on investments in emerging Asia is also far above the cost of borrowing, unlike in Latim America.
Based on BCA research analysis, markets like China H shares, India, Mexico and Argentina are in overbought territory and Taiwan, Korea and Thailand are undervalued.
Business Times on 14 February 2007.
Global equity markets are hinting at a possible correction. But the fundamentals underpinning the 4 year international stock rally remain sound, and any near term downturn is more likely to turn out to be a buying opportunity than a signal that heralds the end of the bull market.
For a start, serious wealth builders should look beyond the blips that will appear minor over a longer period of time and consider whether 2003 was the start of another long period of prosperity such as that seen from 1993 to the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000. If history repeats itself, there are many good years ahead before the bear takes its turn to rule.
Fast forward to 2007, with US housing prices continuing to ease, there is good reason to expect the Fed to cut interest rates later this year to buffer the impact on consumers and the economy. Factor in the three 25 basis point cuts that many in the market are expecting and you can see one reason why history may just repeat itself again for US equities. Another factor that supports continued buoyant equity prices globally is the amount of liquidity flooding financial markets. Despite the relentless disinflation in consumer prices worldwide over the past 20 years - smoothing the way for lower interest rates - liquidity has actually been surging. G7 broad money relative to nominal GDP has been rising relentlessly since the late - 1990s.
Then there is valuation. Notwithstanding the spectacular gains in stock prices almost everywhere in the world, price to earnings ratios have not gone anywhere. That is rising stock prices have been matched by equivalent gains in earnings per share
bedoop, hope everyone had a good reunion dinner. :)
lucky168, i completed all TA trades on thurs of the previous week... think it was right before the market started correcting. Currently same as you, 50/50 cash/equity. Have id-ed possible trades for next week tho, will likely enter two on wed.
The market is tired after a good run. So need a long weekend to rest too and recharge for the next run:)
No liquidation. Staying vested all the way for 2 years:)
anyone started liquidating their positions?
I am now 50% cash/ 50% equity, from earlier 10% cash/ 90% equity.
just getting enough bullets for the next correction after CNY.
Forget the market. Enjoy the CNY . Happy New Year to all SJ/Forumers. May U all be properous, make lots of money and have a good time.
A relatively quiet day today with only 1.3 billion shares traded.
Not surprising given that there is a super long weekend coming.
Not surprising given that there is a super long weekend coming.
For your general information:
Last day for sale of discounted
SINGTEL SHARES
At post offices on 31 march 2007
Are you thinking of selling the discounted Singtel shares (ST A or ST 2) held in your CPF Account? If you do not have a trading account, you have up to
Singpost charges a transaction fee of $17.95 (before SGX fees and GST), a saving of more than $20 compared to the usual charges by broking firm.
From
It's going to be a lonnnnggg weekend and market won't trade again until Wednesday. Those "lau-cheows" will want to take profit first. Otherwise, nobody knows what will happen early next week with Dow Jones and NIKKEI. This is usually the case during extended holidays. However, the STI is indeed frothy and I expect some corrections in end February. Furthermore, in today's paper, analysts expect the BOJ to increase its interest rate next week, since they did not do so the last time, probably due to political pressure.
My broker told me although STI was up, the broader market is very quiet. Most of the smaller stocks are already correcting by 10 - 20%. We are so blurred by the STI uptrend. Market post-CNY may continue to move sideways until this correction is over. Trade with care. Got $$$, take first.
Wish all forumers GONG XI FA CAI.
Ppl need lock in profits to get monies to have a good CNY mah. I am one of them I admit.
In spite of the rising STI, the market looks sick...
Many are losing and losing money. Perhaps there's "divergence" at play... :(
Hi all,
Not free falling, continue selling by hedged fund while going is good, today is last day B4 CNY, their good chance to let go, expecting to move forward when it time for them, likely soon after CNY, nor day, prob.... in week, this are foreign fund,fast in fast out. Investers will continue focus on index blue chip while taking profit, just my tot.
| teeth53 Elite |
Posted: 14-Feb-2007 20:45 |
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