Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

Normally, newer DES players do RCT against an older and more established DES in the market. These are easier targets to prove "non-inferiority". Seldom people will do tough a fight RCT unless they got a lot of money to burn. So a good target will be Cypher and Taxus. Cypher's Sirolimus drug is actually a very potent and effective drug. Most people will choose to do RCT against Taxus. They don't want to risk any unforseen surprises. Taxus is clearly the weakest performer. After Endeavor III RCT's disgrace, nobody dare to touch Cypher. But Biomatrix dare to do it on large scale. This is already a high risk RCT for BIG. LEADERS results will be very exciting show to watch. I hope BIG can give a very hard slap on JNJ's face for choosing to buy Conor instead of BIG. It will be revenge time. Slap JNJ so hard until their cheeks swollen and make JNJ claim they just got "fat cheeks" to save some face. Normally when rivals has nothing better to boast about and say they have the longest track record, it means they cannot find anything better to talk about their own DESs. Thats what Taxus and Cypher manufacturers has been saying lately. At least Boston still can sell Promus (Xience). JNJ has nothing and still stuck with that hopeless Costar stent that has proven again and again it is thrash. I wonder why JNJ even bother to buy Conor. My goodness JNJ must be super desperate!!!   

 

What BIG should have done was to get Terumo to innitiate a comparison between Biomatrix and Xience V in their recent licensing agreement.. That way BIG can keep cost down and gain from Trial results. OR maybe BIG start a small RCT (300 odd people) to start comparing Biomatrix against Xience V..

The sooner such results come out.. the sooner the takeover will be!

This whole stent war thingy reminds me of the game "Risk"! With JWMS and Terumo deals, BIG has almost the whole of Asia. Need to now attack Europe next..! and penetrate into Australia...  

 

 

 

Yes, there is another "Stent War" just being declared by MDT against ABT recently. Endeavour Resolute (the lastest Endeavor model using Zotaolimus drug and very bio-cell friendly durable polymer) DES Vs Xience. A few months ago, ABT just declared another "Stent War" with JNJ and MDT. Its a triple DES RCT comparing 3 limus eluting DES: Xience Vs Cypher Vs Endeavor. I think Taxus is already a write-off after so many DESs proving Taxus is a non-performer in so many RCTs. When your DES pales in comparison with other DESs in RCT, it is very "lau kwee" to the MNC. But the sponsoring company to the RCT has advantage becos they will normally highlight data on the strength of their own DES brand sweep unfavourable data under the carpet. They make their own goal posts via primary and secondary end-point measurements and the way they present the results of the RCT.

Nobody even bother to challenge Biomatrix because BIG is a too unknown company and rivals are also aware Biomatrix is a confirm top class performer. If they lose to Biomatrix, confirm very Lau Kwee for the MNC. Even if they win Biomatrix, who the hell in Wall Street or Main Street know Biosensors anyway? Since LEADERS trial are comparing Biomatrix VS Cypher, JNJ will feel very uneasy. Can be a major Lau Kwee and death keel for JNJ if Cypher is a clear loser compared to Biomatrix. People will also compare LEADERS results with Endeavor III results as Endeavor performed badly against Cypher in this trial. This can provide a rough guage of how Endeavor will stand against Biomatrix. I think so far with so many DES brands (Cypher, Endeavor, Xience, Biomatrix) has done RCTs against Taxus, Biomatrix has the best results, albeit those are smaller scale trials numbering 360 patients in total. But it is sufficient to give us an accurate guage of how Biomatrix really is performing. Confirm in first class honours category.     

 

This shareholders list i can confirm is correct. Europe market and USA market are much more difficult for BIG to make money there as these markets are very competitive liao. Asian company brand hard to make it there. When it comes to branding and marketing in these places, BIG will lose to the ang moh brands even if Biomatrix can perform better than those rivals' DESs.   

China JWMS is a very important base and a "must have" for BIG to be a top player in new and emerging 3rd world markets (Asia, Africa, Latin America). This is a very big plus point as takeover attraction. Immediate access to these huge markets with very huge potential unrealised yet. These markets are very low hanging fruits for BIG to make tons of money. In matured markets, the demand is not growing at all basically just canibalising market share against rivals. Asia, Africa and Latin America markets are showing significant increase in new demand year after year while the other markets are stagnant. We know that China JWMS is already making multi-millions a year and a very stable source of future income for BIG. Its almost a Bao Chiak thing, plus excellent CREATE trial results.

Now BIG owns only 50% of JWMS. JWMS will be worth at least US$800m in 2009. JWMS is a hidden gem and must be fully acquired. When its a hidden gem, BIG must dare to be must be greedy, the best is to have 100% ownership. 50% only is very wasted. That is why if the second 50% JWMS deal is blocked by the Chinese authorities, BIG will lose a lot of "feathers" on the right wing.   

PensionAlterEgo      ( Date: 15-May-2008 08:55) Posted: "Biosensors is still pending gov't approval, and we believe that regulatory hurdle exists for the transaction. If not approved, Weigao would consider other collaborative efforts (licensing, distribution agreement, etc) w/ Biosensors but there's no discussion as of yet." Hai yah... the board of directors should get S'pore Govt's help to lobby for support. I though EDB Investment, Temasek Holdings, TIF Ventures are share holders of BIG..

 

Just to clarify where I am coming from, I am only commenting on the posting where it was commented that Biosensors may not get the govt approval to get the 100% of the JW Medical and the comment by CS that Bios appears to be refocusing onto Europe and Asia. To me this shows Bios is covering ALL BASES and whether or not they get the required 100% Jw Deal (which will be good)there is always other collaboration with JW Medical which I am sure they would have explored  and they have not rested on one LAUREL and is still looking at all options and I applaud them for this.

 

Thanks PAE. What I meant is that BIOSENSORS have to BE VERY STRINGENT in their conrol which is a problem with chinese firms. I still believe their new strategy of concentrating on ASIA and EUROPE will make BIG a more attractive takeover target. Just my personal opinion all along. Maybe my prejudice viz China...so ignore my ramblings

 

allright Member

Posted: 15-May-2008 08:23

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Bro Bengster and friends. Actually my personal opinion is that if they concentrate on Europe , Japan, Asia amd eventually US, it may be better. I have always felt going into China is never easy .Quality controls must be stringent yet at the same time bearing in mind the cost . They can come up with other "collaborative efforts" so China will always be there.  So I for one think that by "refocusing on Asia and Europe..." they are on the right track.

I personally think tackling Europe is quite a tough thing to do. There are so many DES brands now and with strong marketing presence from the big boys. Even if BIG's technology is superior, breaking into Europe needs alot of marketing funds, which BIG seems to lack. Also, I think there is alot of chaos and confusion that is currently being introduced by the big players (mostly through all these silly trials that pit one DES against another just to gain market share). The latest declared challenge/war (on 13th May 2008) is Medtronic vs Abbott.. Like some kind of Boxing contest.

I thought the China move by BIG was excellent.. Singapore (Asian and predominantly Chinese) will always be seem as lesser threat to the Chinese...as compared to the Americans. So I thought China will be an easier target to penetrate. And starting in China and capturing Japan via Terumo will give confidence to BIG and the market share numbers in these countries can be used as a good marketing tool to show the Europeans how effective BIG's products are. Not sure why Alright says quality control in China is stringent. I would think that from past records.. it looks the opposite.   

 

   

 

 

"Biosensors is still pending gov't approval, and we believe that regulatory hurdle exists for the transaction. If not approved, Weigao would consider other collaborative efforts (licensing, distribution agreement, etc) w/ Biosensors but there's no discussion as of yet."

Hai yah... the board of directors should get S'pore Govt's help to lobby for support. I though EDB Investment, Temasek Holdings, TIF Ventures are share holders of BIG..

 

Bro Bengster and friends. Actually my personal opinion is that if they concentrate on Europe , Japan, Asia amd eventually US, it may be better. I have always felt going into China is never easy .Quality controls must be stringent yet at the same time bearing in mind the cost . They can come up with other "collaborative efforts" so China will always be there.

 So I for one think that by "refocusing on Asia and Europe..." they are on the right track.

 

bro...if it don't sound good to you.... it sound scary to me man....

 

 

Citigroup and CS both said the same thing about China JWMS deal. Sounds no good to me man.......

allright      ( Date: 04-Apr-2008 08:48) Posted: DJ MARKET TALK:CS Cuts Biosensors Tgt To S$1.20, Keeps Outperform (2008/04/04 08:46AM) 0046 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse trims Biosensors (B20.SG) target price to S$1.20 from S$1.30 after lowering EPS estimates on conservative assumption company will own only 50% of its unlisted China drug-eluting stent subsidiary JW Medical due to uncertainty of China authority''s approval of deal. After company''s presentation at Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, says Biosensors appears to be refocusing on Asia, Europe BioMatrix commercialization, rather than burning cash for U.S. market entrance; "We believe this should boost investors'' confidence that the company is on the right path to profitability." Expects October release of large-scale clinical trial results for BioMatrix to offer strong catalyst. Keeps at Outperform. Share closed yesterday down 2.4% at S$0.80. (LES) Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150; MarketTalk@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

From: Citigroup Equitysales

Flash: Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer (8199.HK): Downgrade to Hold; Await a Better Entry Point/New Updates

Strong 1Q - As we expected, Shandong Weigao reported strong 1Q results. Revs were RMB303m (41% Y/Y gr) and EPS was RMB0.077 (65% gr), beating consensus revs of RMB281m/EPS of RMB0.059. GM was 47% vs. our estimate of 44%, thanks to strong sales of high-margin products such as infusion sets & medical needles. Offsetting these were higher operating exp/int exp/tax rate. 2008 expectation - Weigao expects 40% top-line growth and 50% NI growth this year. 2008 GM should be maintained at 2007 levels (45.7%). MDT and Biosensors deal - No new update on Medtronic and Biosensors collaborations. MDT is on track to start in 4Q; Biosensors is still pending gov't approval, and we believe that regulatory hurdle exists for the transaction. If not approved, Weigao would consider other collaborative efforts (licensing, distribution agreement, etc) w/ Biosensors but there's no discussion as of yet. Downgrade - 8199 is now trading at 28x our 08 EPS est/23x 09 (vs. group ave of 26x 08/20x 09). The stock has had a strong run based on better than expected earnings and investors expecting minimal impact from Biosensors deal. Our downgrade is based on: 1) the stock is fairly valued, 2) further upside could come from MDT/Biosensors updates, but we have little visibility at this point, 3) after two strong Qs w/ outstanding GM, we believe that earnings expectations are high and further beat may be harder to achieve. We still like the fundamentals of the stock, but we await a better entry point/new updates.

KNN looks like not so smooth sailing for China JWMS deal. BIG said they expect to complete the deal in Oct 2008 when they announced the deal in Jan 2008. Is JWMS a W.O.F.E? I believe after completion of deal in Oct 2008, BIG can appoint an investment banker for JWMS listing liao.  

 

Hi almostthere, your name never fail to give me a feeling that we could be just "almost there"........ $3!!!   When things start falling into places for this company, its going to be fast and furious man. 70cts, $1.10, $1.50, Trading Halt!!! (roll the drums)........ Ta Dah........... $3!!! (The fat lady sing).      Looks like a looooong shot but i think it is achieveable. End 2008 with LEADERS results will be it!!!

 

Compare this report with what Abbott has presented at EuroPCR08 yesterday. Can you spot the ugly facts that Prof Greg Stone is hiding??? I can't cut and paste the article in this post so please join the free membership to view the full article. Very informative and makes you look at clinical trial reports in another angle. The way companies present clinical trials to media are full of diversion traps and they tend to sweep ugly facts underneath the carpet and highlight those good points they want people to read.

http://www.theheart.org/article/855437.do

 

 

 

JNJ can spend US$1.4B to buy this type of thrash. That Costar reservoir holes metal strut just will not work. How much more will JNJ pay for BIG? Besides the top class technology that JNJ needs, BIG has China JWMS (very important base to capture 3rd world market) and patents.

http://www.theheart.org/article/856381.do

This webpage is informative and you guys should do a free subscription as member.

 

Announcement by Biosensors-Results May 26th ...Let's hope new CEO gives a positive statement going forward

 

 

Zeit ist Geld !

 

As AK always posted in the forums, with so many faithful and enthusiatic sifus around with us, we can jangan tension and relax leow. Of course lah, in reciprocate, belanjar them lah. Ha ha.

 

Hello Bengster and fellow forum members.  Read Bengster sharing and wow, he is well informed.  I did hear also of impending licensee fees in the next 6 to 8 weeks.  I also hear that a major institutional investor is coming in at a certain price so that the stage can be set for a potential M&A within 6 to 12 months.  I think they will report a 'loss' results.  But to those of us who follow this forum, we know what we have got ourselves into and what to 'hope' for.  The current economic situation does not help any stock.  BUT, having spend more then 20 years in the financial services, I know and have said so, that most of our financial analysis are 'useless' except for the notable few.  Unfortunately, biotech firms such as BIG is not covered also because of the absense of good analyst.  The good ones have other things to cover and may not divert time to something like BIG.  There is no cluster to warrant any attention.  I watch Bloomberg most weekday evenings at 8 pm and enjoy the beauty and brain of Ms. Susan Li.  She is fantastic.  Watch her when she 'interview', you can tell the quality.  Have confidence in BIG.  It shall produce that return. 

 

Thank You Bengster . You are truly very good and I am glad we have attracted others like PAE, cahier Tan, Ak , JJ,almosthere and many others who are truly solid in their research and trend spotting.Your 10 things to know listed below is a GREAT READ!!!!