Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

Seems that people rushing in for the release of the upcoming result and so happen that coincide with the 6th week duration for BIG to run up.....

Nevertheless, hope it shiong over .8 which is the resistance.... Huat ar...

 

have faith in this stock!!!!!

jackjames      ( Date: 16-May-2008 22:36) Posted: yupe. anyway, the price movement is just a matter of time... I think many people are watching sideline now until the results is out next week.. even though we expected there would be loss in operation,. jasonrxz      ( Date: 16-May-2008 17:09) Posted: Bro JJ,            No harm trying or listen to him..... If so coincidence tat the price move according to pattern then is good.... If din move, we had nothing to lose right???? hee            But I also think that there is nothing about so call 'pattern" especially in stocks.....We shall see and monitor closely next week which is short by one day ( 4 trading day only).            Let's hope the assumption is correct... chiong ar!!!!!

 

look like your observation is true, history repeats itself, wow.... this is something new to me.

dinola      ( Date: 16-May-2008 16:50) Posted: Based on price pattern, the share price will surge every 6-8weeks. The next round should happen anytime next week.

 

yes keep it up all the ways. uppppppp.

 

Assuming a 50% simple majority is needed for takeover, I think JNJ still stands a chance to do a takeover. As of May 2007, Mr Lu and Associates still owns about 35% share. Of course this will be diluted if JWMS's deal goes through (maybe to about 30%)....but Mr Lu and Associates still has a significant percentage to decide on the deal.   

 

bengster68      ( Date: 17-May-2008 23:12) Posted: Bro Eastwind, can you be more specific and fill in the blanks for us in your item "F": f.   Because the Chinese are not stupid, they must have agreed to get paid in kind as opposed to hard cash because ............? This JWMS thing is very complex and many angles to look at it. Do you still think JNJ stand a chance to buy over BIG if  MDT and Wei Gao gang refuses to sell their BIG shares even after a solid $3 takeover offer has been tabled by JNJ? Maybe MDT can strike a deal with JNJ like patent breach waiver for MDT's future Zotarolimus drug on biodegradable polymer on the acceptance of JNJ's offer?

 

What the Doctors Aren't Disclosing

A new study shows how authors of medical journal articles flout rules on revealing conflicts of interest

by Arlene Weintraub

A group of researchers at Duke University scoured 746 studies on heart stents published in medical journals over the course of a year and were shocked to discover two huge omissions. First, 83% of the papers failed to disclose whether any of the authors were paid consultants for companies, even though many journals formally require that information. And of those articles specifically describing clinical trials, 72% didn't say who funded the research. When it comes to policing their disclosure rules, says lead author Kevin Weinfurt of the Duke Clinical Research Institute, "these journals should be doing better."

Virtually every medical organization urges physicians to be up front about their financial ties to industry. It's especially a concern when doctors who publish studies about drugs and medical devices receive funding from the companies that make those products. Over the past few years, a spate of safety warnings and product recalls has left journal editors fearful that company-paid researchers might be filtering their results to highlight the positive. So the publications have toughened up their disclosure policies, hoping that transparency by itself would neutralize conflicts of interest.

The Duke study shows that even when authors do divulge their connections, some statements are less than forthright. In all, 168 authors out of 2,985 made disclosures in the journal articles, which were published in 2006. Through simple Internet searches, the Duke team discovered that some physicians who said they had no conflicts of interest in fact served on advisory boards of companies that make stents. One person co-founded a stent company. (The Duke paper doesn't name doctors.)

The report reveals just how deeply corporate interests have infiltrated medical research. The top funding sources named in disclosure statements were stentmakers Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Boston Scientific (BSX), and Medtronic (MDT), as well as drugmakers Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). The last two co-market the blood thinner Plavix, which is widely prescribed to stent patients.

Contacted by BusinessWeek (MHP), spokespeople for Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boston Scientific, and Sanofi said in e-mails that they require authors to disclose all financial support from their companies. (J&J and Medtronic did not respond by publication time.)

BUILT-IN LIMITATIONS

Some journal editors gripe that there's only so much they can do. Once they issue disclosure rules, they have no choice but to trust authors to follow them. "I'm not a cop. I'm not the FBI," says Dr. Catherine DeAngelis, editor-in-chief of the Journal of the American Medical Assn. With several thousand authors contributing every year to her publication, DeAngelis says, she can't expect her editors to research every disclosure to determine whether it's accurate. And she's frustrated so many authors are resisting the call to disclose. "It should be a no-brainer," DeAngelis says. "It doesn't mean the worthiness of the paper is marred. But if they're not disclosing because they think it's marred, then maybe it is."

Transparency has some built-in limitations. If all authors consistently disclosed every possible conflict of interest, the world would be awash in information that's hard to interpret. After all, most disclosure statements don't say how much money the authors receive, whether they're paid in cash and/or stock, or what services they provide in return. "The whole system is pretty slipshod," says Dr. Jerome P. Kassirer, former editor-in-chief of The New England Journal of Medicine and author of On the Take: How Medicine's Complicity with Big Business Can Endanger Your Health. "When you know an author has a conflict of interest, you're still in the dark."

Join a debate about whether physicians should accept gifts from drugmakers.

 

But the fact stilll remains:

- So many interesting stories .... yet share price not moving northward instead going south ...

- FY08 end result coming soon on the 26th May (Monday) .... and no price movement at all as the date draw nearer. Not a very good sign but at least, there are no dumping ....

- And looking at the current price movement ... is very de-moralising especially when results is drawing near ......

- Share price suppose to be forward looking .... So, if BIG future is projected to be glamour then the FY08 results which supposed to be in the red will be of no importance. Thus,  i think the BB or insitutional player are still not comfortable with BIG in some ways or they know things which we don't ????

- Also, there are other DES players around and so competition remains ..... so what if your "deliverables" is good, it doesn't mean much when you are small.  (i'm selling equipment with spec. that are far more superior than some of the BIG MNC company, so what ..... customer still choose them as the their branding is solid .... Just like IBM ..... IT engineer always have the mind set that use IBM will be safe ... cos even you screw up .. is alright cos everyone are using IBM wat.)

- So, if BIG is going to make it "BIG".... they must really bang hard on Marketing and Branding ... and all this takes "significant time" to build up.

Hope this coming results will shed more lights into what BIG is heading and their plan. I'm also holding on patiently to BIG but if BIG mgmt still dun buck up .... then good luck to all BIG supporters.

Cheers. Looking forward eagerly for BIG coming result annoucement.

Above not an inducement to trade.

 

 

Bro Eastwind, can you be more specific and fill in the blanks for us in your item "F":

f.   Because the Chinese are not stupid, they must have agreed to get paid in kind as opposed to hard cash because ............?


This JWMS thing is very complex and many angles to look at it. Do you still think JNJ stand a chance to buy over BIG if  MDT and Wei Gao gang refuses to sell their BIG shares even after a solid $3 takeover offer has been tabled by JNJ? Maybe MDT can strike a deal with JNJ like patent breach waiver for MDT's future Zotarolimus drug on biodegradable polymer on the acceptance of JNJ's offer? 

 

Yes, Hulumas, I tend to agree with you at this point.

Hulumas      ( Date: 17-May-2008 18:17) Posted: Too mush stories sometimes is simply not considered a good story!!!

 

 

Whether it is jack wang or weigao who sold the JWS shares to BIG is not quite relevant.  The question still remains, why would they (the chinese) sell it to BIG in consideration for BIG's shares.  But the fact that jack wang was and still is connected to JWS makes it very interesting indeed.

 

For info only.

The original 50 % share of JWMS was sold to Biosensors by Dr. Jack Wang, (co-founder of the company).

Dr. Wang, I believe is now the CEO of  JWMS.

Information extracted from a UOBKH HK report on Shandong Weigao.

 

Too mush stories sometimes is simply not considered a good story!!!

 

Bro Beng, thank you once again for your very indepth facts.  But you miss out the essence of what I am saying - you assume that JWS was happy to have BIG's shares because a takeover at $3 will SURELY happen and eveyone lives happily together after that.

To unravel the mystery, again we have to go back in time to when the transaction happened.  When BIG acquired JWS, it had no CE approval, was (and still is) burning cash, was (and still is) losing money, had no DES to sell, was (and still is) an unproven company.

Yet, despite all that, JWS happily sold away their company in exchange for BIG's shares. 

WHY?!?

Because they HOPED that a take over will happen?  I dont think any sensible businessman would sell away 100% of its company in exchange for hope.  Hell, earthquakes can happen suddenly and who knows what tomorrow will bring, right?

Even today,  now that BIG has CE approval, if I were to ask any one, if you were in charge of JWS, would you sell  away your profitable company in consideration for BIG's shares in the hope that in the not too distant future, BIG can prosper or in the hope that BIG will be the subject of a takeover?

So, here is the summary:

a.   BIG wants JWS.

b.   BIG has no cash to pay for the acquisiton.

c.   At that time, BIG has no CE approval, is losing money every year and there is no guarantee that BIG can make it.

d.   The Chinese are willing to sell.

e.   The Chinese are not stupid.

f.   Because the Chinese are not stupid, they must have agreed to get paid in kind as opposed to hard cash because ......?

 

 

 

 

 

For the first 50% of JWMS which was first announced in Aug 2007 and already completed (new shares of BIG issued and registered with SGX liao), the individual Chinamen took cash of US$10m plus 129m BIG BIG shares.

For the second 50%, Wei Gao took all shares. It could be because BIG cannot afford an all cash purchase. We must note that Wei Gao is also very cash rich after Medtronic injected hundreds of millions of RMB cash to have a 15% newly issued shares as MDT's strategic stake in WeiGao. So cash from BIG as a form of purchase consideration is not the main concern for WeiGao. If we study the second 50% deal involving WeiGao in detail, it has 3 distinct portion:

1. The first 30% is a straight forward share swap with 120m BIG shares.

2. The second 20% is a PUT option for a considerably lesser amount of 40m BIG shares. That means it is up to Wei Gao to exercise this put option to sell the second batch of remaining 20%.

3. BIG further grant WeiGao an option to purchase a further 20m BIG shares at a price to be determined (most likely it will be at $1.08 per share or higher). 

I feel the first 30% at a higher price value (120m BIG shares) is an insurance buffer to WeiGao and looks detrimental to BIG's existing shareholders for so more share dilution. Its like a sweeten deal to entice WeiGao into agreeing to let BIG takeover China JWMS. If BIG intends to list JWMS, the valuation of BIG will increase tremendously and hence it makes sense for Wei Gao to want to exercise the PUT option to exchange for 40m more BIG shares. This signficant increase of BIG's valuation may also come in the form of takeover offer by either JNJ or MDT after excellent LEADERS trial results. When someone makes a $3 offer, it will definitely make sense for WeiGao to exercise the put option as 40m BIG shares will be worth $120m cash. On top of that, WeiGao wants to have the potential to make even more via the 20m option to purchase more BIG shares. I see this as a "dessert" part of the deal. If at $3 takeover offer price, WeiGao can potentially make another ($3-$1.08) X 20m shares = $38.4m cash profit (all sponsored by JNJ or MDT). I hope my analysis can help us to demistify this complex 120m share swap, 40m put option and additional 20m option deal with WeiGao with regards to acquisition of the second 50% of China JWMS.    

 

I have been thinking about the same questions too ever since news of the deal broke out.  I think to get the answers, instead of asking the obvious question why JWS would sell, ask another more cryptic question - why would JWS want BIG's shares instead of hard currency? 

 

To put it another way around - if you were a businessman in charge of a profitable enterprise, and someone wants to buy your shares, you would:

a.   not wanna sell because you believe that your business is a goldmine.

b.   sell for cash in return.

In this case, JWS did not choose option a or b.  Instead, it is very curious that they sold and settled for payment FULLY in BIG's shares.  This must mean that they sold NOT because they did NOT believe that their china business is NOT  a goldmine.  IF JWS thought that their business is not good, they would have sold for cash, right?  This is what any sensible businessman would do.

 

So, putting yourself in JWS's shoes, why would you sell your whole company and not want to be paid in cash?  By settling for stock, you run the risk that BIG might never make it, or its shares remain depressed and you would have therefore given away your company for little or even nothing.

 

So, unless JWS made this deal with BIG in a drunken stupour after a heavy drinking session (which I am assuming that they did not), what is it in BIG that they see to be so confident to sell away the whole company for stock?

 

If you can connect the dots, you would have gotten the answers to your questions.  I must say it would be very, very interesting to see how this works out.

 

 

PensionAlterEgo      ( Date: 17-May-2008 13:36) Posted: Speaking about takeovers.. I think the idea of BIG being acquired by JNJ looks a little bit complicated. If the China deal goes through, then Weigao will own part of BIG's shares. Which actually means that Medtronic will own part of BIG since Medtronic owns part of Weigao. So if JNJ is to buy BIG, is there any complication? Can Weigao under the influence of Medtronic try to block such sales..? (I am assuming Weigao will be a significant shareholder with 14% shares) I am trying to make some sense of this entire JWMS deal. I wonder why would Medtronic, which is controlling part of Weigao allow Weigao to sell JWMS. Wouldn't it be beneficial for Weigao to hold on to the 50% of JWMS so that half of this steady stream of revenue can be accounted into Weigao's Balance Sheet each FY. And moreover, JWMS's market share is rising. If JWMS could capture 50% market share in China, I would estimate this to be US 200mill. So accounting US 100 mill yearly to Weigao would be more beneficial that selling it right? Instead, Weigao is settling for about 160 Million shares... which works out to be about US 80 mill based on today's share price. So why should Weigao settle for such a deal? What does Weigao see in BIG? And why Medtronic did not stop this deal..? Any comments?

 

China JWMS is clearly in breach of BIG's "limus on biodegradable polymer" patent. I mentioned before the holder of this patent can arm twist smaller companies to sell to them. EXCEL DES uses Sirolimus drug on biodegradable polymer. I think BIG can apply to stop sale of EXCEL DES for patent breach but legal process in China can be very long with no end. China is also well-known as a country with little IP rights protection. There could be something that Medtronic see in BIG to allow the share swap deal between JWMS and BIG. A few months ago i posted an analysis on Medtronic being a potential "King-Maker" in BIG's takeover deal and there is also a high chance that Medtronic themself is actually interested in taking over BIG as well. JNJ is still the number one candidate, Medtronic is the second most likely candidate. Both are super cash rich, both don't have good DES technology and patents. BIG is a perfect fit for either JNJ or MDT to deal with the next DES market leader: Xience (aka private label Promus if marketed under Boston Scientific) from Abbott.  

 

Speaking about takeovers.. I think the idea of BIG being acquired by JNJ looks a little bit complicated. If the China deal goes through, then Weigao will own part of BIG's shares. Which actually means that Medtronic will own part of BIG since Medtronic owns part of Weigao. So if JNJ is to buy BIG, is there any complication? Can Weigao under the influence of Medtronic try to block such sales..? (I am assuming Weigao will be a significant shareholder with 14% shares)

I am trying to make some sense of this entire JWMS deal. I wonder why would Medtronic, which is controlling part of Weigao allow Weigao to sell JWMS. Wouldn't it be beneficial for Weigao to hold on to the 50% of JWMS so that half of this steady stream of revenue can be accounted into Weigao's Balance Sheet each FY. And moreover, JWMS's market share is rising. If JWMS could capture 50% market share in China, I would estimate this to be US 200mill. So accounting US 100 mill yearly to Weigao would be more beneficial that selling it right? Instead, Weigao is settling for about 160 Million shares... which works out to be about US 80 mill based on today's share price. So why should Weigao settle for such a deal? What does Weigao see in BIG? And why Medtronic did not stop this deal..?

Any comments? 

 

Although FDA appears to be "Mr Friendly and Nice Guy", we must remember Hollywood is in America and the Americans can be very good actors. I have a feeling that even if LEADERS results are very good, the big boys that wants to buy over BIG will arm-twist BIG into accepting a lower price because they can influence FDA's IDE approval. Delay Biomatrix's IDE approval further so they can press down the takover price that BIG wants.

 

PensionAlterEgo Member

Posted: 17-May-2008 11:54

x 0 x 0

Bengster, do you know how long it takes for approval of IDEs? It appears to me that DEVAX applied in April 2007 and XTENT in Sept 2007 but till now, FDA has not even approved these two applications yet. Actually the strategy of getting XTENT to apply for IDE and get their large trial of about 2500 people going and eventually leading to FDA approval is quite good. This way, BIG does not have to burn cash.. and perhaps ride on XTENT's results to get FDA approval. Not sure if this can happen..?  Read somewhere that XTENT should expect reply from their CE application in May 2008. So hope this is +ve..

IDE for sure will be approved in 2008. I think they could be waiting for some "Master Drug" safety approval for BiolimusA9 as it is a new type of drug being used on DES. I believe BIG applied for IDE in early 2006. BIG claimed that the USA authorities are more receptive to DES compared to CE authorities (i think because they faced a lot of problems with the CE panel). But it think in USA things are not so simple also. All the current DES majors are American companies and USA is their territory. I feel the FDA guys may be playing the "Mr Friendly Nice Guy" in front of BIG but behind the scene, there are DES rivals' lobbying influence against Biomatrix's approval. As usual, FDA will have to approve it because Biomatrix is really a top class DES but they can delay and delay. I believe its 2 over years since IDE submission but still no news about IDE approval. However, i personally believe positive LEADERS results will put some pressure on the FDA for Biomatrix's IDE. Under the traditional FDA approval process, good LEADERS trial results (proving of non-inferiority against an existing approved DES) would have warrant an FDA approval for Biomatrix to be sold in USA market already. If LEADERS results are good and Biomatrix still didn't get IDE.... it becomes very obvious that FDA kelong and delay Biomatrix's IDE for no reason. Biomatrix already can pass "O" Levels and FDA still deciding whether to pass Biomatrix's PSLE??? FDA cannot be so obvious in kelong because can kena investigation if BIG complain to a higher authority. When you don't have the backing of an American big brother, this is what will happen at regulatory approval. Delay, delay and delay..... Time is money for this industry. If there is no takeover offer after LEADERS results, BIG must find an American big brother to JV for USA market. I suggest BIG partner St Judes Medical to tackle the USA market. Very hard to do it alone there. FDA problems, image and branding problem (Asian DES???), sales and distribution channels, connections with American hospitals and doctors to sell your stent, etc. Not so easy man.  

I just read an article somewhere that Xtent is pressing FDA to give them IDE to start another of their CUSTOM trial for USA market approval as Xtent's technology has the potential to solve a pressing need in the DES industry (very long lesion and multiple lesions). As for Xtent's CE, they are suppose to get their's around mid-2008 and start selling in 2H of 2008. The CE clogging has been cleared withTerumo's NOBORI and BIG's Biomatrx CE approval so technically CE shouldn't be delaying BIG's other licensees CE for too long. Xtent is also pressing CE to give them approval and i posted an article relating to this matter here somewhere in Feb 2008. When you don't have a big brother to take care of such things, regulatory approvals are very complicated. If i were to put it very bluntly, the big boys contol the market because they have influence on regulatory approval stages. Multi-billions are at stake with each and every regulatory approvals. That is way i have been saying medical device and drug industry is like a Mafia business but in the name of better quality of life of patients. Its freaking ironic. Mafia appoint judges, politicians appoint judges in Malaysia, confirm also got medical device companies behind the scene appoint regulatory approval panel and their panel of advisors.         

 

I think Genous stent's MACE rate and TLR is quite high but they "claim" it is low and comparable to early Taxus registery studies. Since they don't use drugs, i think their late-loss is very high (that is why they didn't report it). Genous is just a good class BMS, thats all.