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TA from KE:
60-day moving average has cut below its 200-day moving average forming a dead cross. This is a bearish sign as it indicates that the medium term trend has turned weak. The stock is trading below the downtrend line. Resistance is at $4.78. Technical projection shows further downside to $4.24 in coming week(s). Thus, traders should sell on the bounce towards $4.78 and consider a trading buy position below $4.30.
SPC dropped to $4.48 when oil is $61, so tomorrow to expect around $4.45
oil has gone to below $60!!
Jim Cramer advised last week (19/9/2006) to switched from energy stocks to TECH stocks cos the next 3 months will be tech-play in view of Christmas season. I still think oil price will be high due to winter season, but I am already vested in tech.
Check out below link for Cramer's video. Be patient when downloading cos everyone is US listens to him.
http://www.thestreet.com/_tsctten/video/cramermarketupdates/10309795.html
Well hopefully oil will not go to the US$40 per barrel.
Huh? No lah, Livermore ... maybe you are vested in oil-related stocks ya?
High oil price hurts. Some more, the current high metal prices are so scary that many biz's margins are dastically reduced. Tough and mad world to live in these days.
I also want oil prices stay go up and STAY HIGH for many years!
This Week In Petroluem - How Long Can It Go?
September 20, 2006 -- From a 2006 peak of $3.04 on August 7, 2006, EIA's weekly U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline has fallen by 54 cents per gallon in just 6 weeks, including a 12-cent decline in the past week. This is already the second-largest uninterrupted decline in the history of the survey (dating back to August 1990), trailing only last year's 9-week, 78-cent drop after Hurricane Rita. Some analysts have predicted that average U.S. prices will drop near $2 per gallon or lower, and prices under $2 have already been reported in a few locations. Not surprisingly, one of the most frequent questions posed to EIA staff recently has been "How low will gasoline prices go?"
In order to understand where retail
gasoline prices might be headed, we need to look at the various components behind the price consumers see at the pump. First, and most visible, is the price of crude oil, which has also fallen sharply (over $13 per barrel, or about 31 cents per gallon) over the same recent period. Secondly, the so-called "crack spread" between crude oil and spot market (approximately "refinery gate") prices for gasoline, which typically drops at the end of the driving season, has fallen more sharply than usual since early August. Finally, distribution and marketing costs and profits, along with taxes, round out the major components of retail gasoline prices.
Analysts note that crude oil and gasoline have a "push-pull" relationship: falling crude oil prices can pull gasoline prices down, and falling gasoline prices can push crude oil down as well. (The same forces work in the other direction when prices are rising.) Crude oil prices are fundamentally driven by the global balance between supply and demand, often influenced by geopolitical or natural events. But at the same time, the price of gasoline relative to crude oil is a major factor in the profitability of refining, and the size of that spread helps to determine whether refiners will demand more or less crude oil, influencing its price. Both factors have come into play during the past 6 weeks, as crude oil prices have eased due to a perceived reduction in threats to global supply, and the end of the driving season has magnified the drop in gasoline prices. The latter reflects a decrease in the gasoline crack spread from historically high levels this summer to unusually low levels by mid-September.
Beyond the refinery, taxes add the largest increment (about 46 cents, on average this year) to retail prices, with the remainder attributed to the distribution and marketing functions. The amount available to cover the costs and profits of distribution and marketing varies as prices rise and fall, because of the lag between wholesale and retail price changes, but averages under 20 cents per gallon. In general, marketers tend to make less profit as wholesale prices rise while retail prices lag behind, but make more profit as prices decline.
So what does this breakdown suggest about the near-term prospects for retail gasoline prices? Reductions already seen in spot and futures markets could imply a further decrease in the U.S. average retail price of as much as 25 cents (to around $2.25 per gallon), if those wholesale markets don't turn upward in the interim. To go significantly lower would require a further drop in crude oil prices (currently around $62 per barrel) or the spread between crude oil and gasoline prices (now averaging about 7 cents per gallon). Since the spread between crude oil and gasoline prices is already quite low by historical standards, and the persistence of very low spreads would discourage gasoline production, a further significant drop in crude oil prices would seem to be only practical route to a sustained reduction in retail gasoline prices below the level of about $2.25 per gallon.
Will we ever see a national average retail gasoline price under $2 per gallon again? Though some lucky U.S. motorists can already find prices starting with a "1" again, EIA doesn't see the average price falling below the $2 per gallon level unless crude oil prices continue to decline sharply.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy
Analysts note that crude oil and gasoline have a "push-pull" relationship: falling crude oil prices can pull gasoline prices down, and falling gasoline prices can push crude oil down as well. (The same forces work in the other direction when prices are rising.) Crude oil prices are fundamentally driven by the global balance between supply and demand, often influenced by geopolitical or natural events. But at the same time, the price of gasoline relative to crude oil is a major factor in the profitability of refining, and the size of that spread helps to determine whether refiners will demand more or less crude oil, influencing its price. Both factors have come into play during the past 6 weeks, as crude oil prices have eased due to a perceived reduction in threats to global supply, and the end of the driving season has magnified the drop in gasoline prices. The latter reflects a decrease in the gasoline crack spread from historically high levels this summer to unusually low levels by mid-September.
Beyond the refinery, taxes add the largest increment (about 46 cents, on average this year) to retail prices, with the remainder attributed to the distribution and marketing functions. The amount available to cover the costs and profits of distribution and marketing varies as prices rise and fall, because of the lag between wholesale and retail price changes, but averages under 20 cents per gallon. In general, marketers tend to make less profit as wholesale prices rise while retail prices lag behind, but make more profit as prices decline.
So what does this breakdown suggest about the near-term prospects for retail gasoline prices? Reductions already seen in spot and futures markets could imply a further decrease in the U.S. average retail price of as much as 25 cents (to around $2.25 per gallon), if those wholesale markets don't turn upward in the interim. To go significantly lower would require a further drop in crude oil prices (currently around $62 per barrel) or the spread between crude oil and gasoline prices (now averaging about 7 cents per gallon). Since the spread between crude oil and gasoline prices is already quite low by historical standards, and the persistence of very low spreads would discourage gasoline production, a further significant drop in crude oil prices would seem to be only practical route to a sustained reduction in retail gasoline prices below the level of about $2.25 per gallon.
Will we ever see a national average retail gasoline price under $2 per gallon again? Though some lucky U.S. motorists can already find prices starting with a "1" again, EIA doesn't see the average price falling below the $2 per gallon level unless crude oil prices continue to decline sharply.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy
I still believe we are not done with the high oil price yet despite the the ample supplies ........ watch for it.
--------------------
AP
Friday September 22, 9:42 am ET
Oil Prices Rise Above $62 a Barrel, 2nd Climb in As Many Days; but Supplies Seen As Ample
LONDON (AP) -- Oil prices bounced higher for a second straight day on Friday, rising above $62 a barrel, though many analysts believe supplies are ample and could signal lower prices ahead.
The possibility of a production cut by OPEC, as well as a sharp move lower over the past two months, has brought out bargain hunters who believe oil is reasonably priced at around $60.
Light sweet crude for November delivery gained 43 cents to $62.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Europe. The contract on Thursday rose 85 cents to settle at $61.59 per barrel.
November Brent crude on London's ICE futures exchange rose 27 cents to $61.61 a barrel.
Heating oil futures added 0.38 cents to $1.6826 a gallon while gasoline prices rose 1.45 cents to $1.5139 a gallon. Natural gas futures were down 3.6 cents to $4.745 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Crude oil futures have plummeted more than 20 percent over the past two months as worries ease about supply threats and as signs of economic weakness in the U.S. point to a possible softening in demand for energy. On Wednesday, prices fell by more than $1 a barrel in selling that briefly took oil prices below $60 a barrel -- the level the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has hinted could initiate an output cut.
"There is already some evidence that OPEC has reduced production from the Middle East and is committed to supporting high prices," Morgan Stanley said Friday.
The latest U.S. Energy Department data showed distillate fuel inventories growing by 4.1 million barrels last week to 148.7 million barrels, or more than 11 percent above year-ago levels. Gasoline inventories increased by 600,000 barrels to 207.6 million barrels, or 6 percent above year ago levels.
Crude oil inventories declined by 2.8 million barrels to 324.9 million barrels -- but that's still 5 percent more than last year and well above the five-year average for this time of year.
Analysts said that with geopolitical and weather risks easing -- and speculators taking chips off the table -- energy futures could continue to tumble. Natural gas is most vulnerable to further declines, at least until the first cold snap arrives in the U.S., they said.
U.S. stocks data showed domestic natural gas inventories increased by 93 billion cubic feet last week to 3.18 trillion cubic feet -- a record level for this time of year and 12.5 percent above year ago levels.
The possibility of a production cut by OPEC, as well as a sharp move lower over the past two months, has brought out bargain hunters who believe oil is reasonably priced at around $60.
Light sweet crude for November delivery gained 43 cents to $62.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Europe. The contract on Thursday rose 85 cents to settle at $61.59 per barrel.
November Brent crude on London's ICE futures exchange rose 27 cents to $61.61 a barrel.
Heating oil futures added 0.38 cents to $1.6826 a gallon while gasoline prices rose 1.45 cents to $1.5139 a gallon. Natural gas futures were down 3.6 cents to $4.745 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Crude oil futures have plummeted more than 20 percent over the past two months as worries ease about supply threats and as signs of economic weakness in the U.S. point to a possible softening in demand for energy. On Wednesday, prices fell by more than $1 a barrel in selling that briefly took oil prices below $60 a barrel -- the level the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has hinted could initiate an output cut.
"There is already some evidence that OPEC has reduced production from the Middle East and is committed to supporting high prices," Morgan Stanley said Friday.
The latest U.S. Energy Department data showed distillate fuel inventories growing by 4.1 million barrels last week to 148.7 million barrels, or more than 11 percent above year-ago levels. Gasoline inventories increased by 600,000 barrels to 207.6 million barrels, or 6 percent above year ago levels.
Crude oil inventories declined by 2.8 million barrels to 324.9 million barrels -- but that's still 5 percent more than last year and well above the five-year average for this time of year.
Analysts said that with geopolitical and weather risks easing -- and speculators taking chips off the table -- energy futures could continue to tumble. Natural gas is most vulnerable to further declines, at least until the first cold snap arrives in the U.S., they said.
U.S. stocks data showed domestic natural gas inventories increased by 93 billion cubic feet last week to 3.18 trillion cubic feet -- a record level for this time of year and 12.5 percent above year ago levels.
why do people still believe SPC is a bargain at this price?? up 4 cents 1 day and down 6 cents another??
China long oredi knew they must import oil, so they now doing what they can do by what ever mean, a 20% on alternate rescources.
Oil is a precious commodity but with so many big producers around the world, there should be a point where more barrels are produced ahead of demand. So, prices will start to drop until more demand comes in. I think oil prices will still be weak for another 6 months or so. Just my guess but everything can happen like storms, or Iran, Iraq testing nukes or some other negative news that affect these players.
The way I look at it, the market might be pricing in a "not so successful" year for the company in 2007. If the US goes into a recession, that would bring oil prices down. I heard there might be adequate supply of oil products during the coming winter season.
Some economists keep saying because of China, Asian economies will "ride" through if there is a US recession next year. Have they forgotton that China is more "export" than "import" economy at the moment? US is still the largest market at the moment. Are they aware that some goods sold to China ultimately ends up in US? I believe one day China would become a major importer as well but that day has not come yet.
When oil price goes down, SPC will too. Timing is crucial now if anyone want to ride the next oil hike. My feeling is oil will rebound soon - by next month with northern winter coming. Or when Iran or other middle east countries does something silly ...
As mentioned a few days ago, this one is still downtrending. I don't see any trend reversal anytime soon.
Well that what think coming soon Akan Datang !!!.
Wah, you think every week got discount meh? This is not JohnLittle sale. Will hav to wait for more oil price drops!! I think JB side havn't cut prices yet, can somebody confirm this??
Anymore discount on the retailer side on oil px ???
SPC will probably go down some more, so be patient!
Woww SPC px really down to $4.48 b4 coming back to $4.52 cts