Indofood Agri    Last:0.305   -

Indofood Agri Resources

Credit Suisse cuts target price for Indofood Agri Resources to $3.28 from $3.40, based on 14X FY09 P/E, to reflect less-than-expected output from unit London Sumatra, which reported 7.3% on-year drop in CPO production in 2Q08. But keeps Outperform call; "LSIP's soft CPO output may be a geographically isolated issue and thus, we maintain our CPO output estimates for IFAR's own plantation."

 

CIMB cuts Indofood Agri to Underperform from Outperform; cuts target price to $2.25 from $3.25. Move reflects more negative view generally on Asian plantation sector due to expectation that crude palm oil price may peak this year, rising regulatory risks, escalating operating costs. Cuts FY08-FY10 earnings estimates by 3-8% to reflect higher fuel and fertilizer costs, lower earnings contributions from London Sumatra. Reduces assumed PE multiple for target price to 15x from 18x to account for "less rosy outlook".

 

What happened? I nearly bought last week.

 

Indofood Agri Resources
July 15 close: S$2.08
DMG & Partners Securities, July 15

SHARE price down on equity fund-raising talk: Rumours of equity placement may have caused Indofood Agri's share price drop. Bisnis Indonesia purportedly reported on Monday that Indofood Agri is currently looking to sell 10-15 per cent of its shares to raise about US$300 million-US$350 million for the repayment of a bridging loan maturing in Q3 2008.

Following the news release, we have spoken to management on Monday and they have maintained that the company is currently in talks with financial institutions to refinance the 2.4 trillion rupiah (about S$372 million) bridging loan maturing in August 2008 and that the negotiations are currently on track.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) projections, global palm oil consumption for 2008/2009 will grow 6 per cent, to reach 42.7 million tonnes. On the back of tight soybean supply (USDA projects a drop in soybean production from June's forecasts - from 3.1 billion to 3 billion bushels - and projects declining yields - from 42.1 bushels an acre in June to 41.6 bushels) and persistently high crude oil prices (currently around US$145 per bbl), crude palm oil (CPO) prices are likely to remain at favourable levels (currently around RM3,500 or S$1,460 per tonne).

With the global trend of higher consumption and usage of palm oil and the present high CPO price of about RM3,500 per tonne, we believe that Indofood Agri will continue to enjoy the present conducive environment, especially with its high ratio of mature acreage.

As such, we are maintaining our 'buy' rating and fair value of S$3.34, using a PE of 14 times. This translates into a potential upside of 57.5 per cent from its closing price of S$2.12.
BUY

 

There was a rumour yesterday, saying that IndoAgric may need to issue new shares to pay for their secured debt/borrowings which is payable in August. That probably caused the shares to went below $2.1 yesterday.

Company had denied this. However, if you look at their secured debt/borrowing to be paid within this year, it's about U$350m. This is much more than their cash or cash equivalent at end of their Q1. I wonder how are they going to pay off the loan??

 

1.

Date of notice to issuer *

10-07-2008

2.

Name of Director *

Mark Julian Wakeford

3.	Please tick one or more appropriate box(es): *
	Notice of a Director's (including a director who is a substantial shareholder) Interest and Change in Interest. [Please complete Part II and IV]

>> PART II

1.

Date of change of Interest

10-07-2008

2.

Name of Registered Holder

HSBC (Singapore) Nominees Pte Ltd

3.	Circumstance(s) giving rise to the interest or change in interest	Open Market Purchase
	# Please specify details

4.	Information relating to shares held in the name of the Registered Holder
	No. of Shares held before the change 250000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0.017 %   No. of Shares which are subject of this notice 50000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0.003 %   Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received 2.2     No. of Shares held after the change 300000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0.021 %

 

1. Date of change of Interest 08-07-2008 2. Name of Registered Holder HSBC (Singapore) Nominees Pte Ltd 3. Circumstance(s) giving rise to the interest or change in interest Open Market Purchase # Please specify details 4. Information relating to shares held in the name of the Registered Holder No. of Shares held before the change 200000 As a percentage of issued share capital 0.014 % No. of Shares which are subject of this notice 50000 As a percentage of issued share capital 0.003 % Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received 2.30 No. of Shares held after the change 250000 As a percentage of issued share capital 0.017 %

 

below 2.39!...can start accumulating in batches for the next run up :)

 

below 2.39 coming...woohoo..can start to accumulate somemore

 

yeah the new york fella acumulated some more.. if today fall below <2.39 i will pick up as well

 

Date of notice to issuer *

25-06-2008

2.

Name of Substantial Shareholder *

Newton Investment Management Ltd., subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation

3.	Please tick one or more appropriate box(es): *
	Notice of a Change in the Percentage Level of a Substantial Shareholder's Interest or Cessation of Interest. [Please complete Part III and IV]

1.

Date of change of Interest

24-06-2008

2.

The change in the percentage level

From 6.10 % To 7.06 %

3.	Circumstance(s) giving rise to the interest or change in interest	Open Market Purchase
	# Please specify details

4.

A statement of whether the change in the percentage level is the result of a transaction or a series of transactions:

The change in percentage is due to a series of transactions.

>> PART IV

1.	Holdings of Substantial Shareholder , including direct and deemed interest :

	Direct	Deemed
No. of shares held before the change	88,373,000	0
As a percentage of issued share capital	6.10 %	0 %
No. of shares held after the change	102,220,000	0
As a percentage of issued share capital	7.06 %	0 %

 

Singapore-listed Indofood Agri rebounds; DMG keeps 'buy' recommendation




 

SINGAPORE, Jun 26, 2008 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) --

Shares in Indonesian palm plantation company Indofood Agri Resources rebounded in Singapore on Thursday after slumping 10.1 percent in the previous session on news of weaker crude palm oil exports (CPO) and higher export taxes.

DMG & Partners Securities said the sell-down was overdone and the outlook for the company remains positive.

"We are of a view that the sharp sell-down is unwarranted as we have already factored in the higher tax rate in our earnings forecasts. In addition, the macro outlook remains positive," said DMG analyst Selena Leong in a client note.

Global palm oil consumption for 2008/2009 is expected to grow 6 percent to 42.7 million tons, the analyst said, citing industry projections.

"With the global trend of higher consumption and usage of palm oil and the present high CPO price of about 3,553 ringgit per tonne, we believe that Indofood Agri will continue to enjoy the present conducive environment, especially with its high ratio of mature acreage," Leong said.

DMG has "buy" call on Indofood Agri with a target price of S$3.34.

At 10:45 a.m. (0245 GMT), Indofood Agri was up 2.7 percent to S$2.65. The Straits Times Index was up 0.6 percent at 3,005.54.

Shares in Indofood Agri slumped 10.1 percent on Wednesday when Indonesia raised its export tax for CPO in July, and after a report from independent surveyor Intertek Agri Services said Malaysia's CPO exports from June 1 to 25 fell 9.4 percent from the previous month.

($1 = S$1.36)

yuinmunn.szetoh@thomsonreuters.com

 

I don't think it has finished its correction. You may have to wait for the next bull leg.

 

0132 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Yesterday''s 10% drop in Indofood Agri''s (5JS.SG) share price due to counter''s high volatility, not fundamental deterioration, Credit Suisse says in report. Notes most palm oil counters listed in Malaysia and Indonesia, where short-selling is difficult; "Hence, we believe that equity market participants have a tendency of employing Singapore-listed palm oil counters, such as IFAR, to hedge their long positions in Indonesia- and Malaysia-listed palm oil counters." Says management has denied unconfirmed reports company may raise capital to fund sugarcane plantation acquisition; management says will use internal cash flow according to existing plan. Notes negative sentiment further fueled by Indonesia increasing country''s CPO export tax to 20% from 15% yesterday; says, however, not a fundamental tax-policy change as existing tax is progressive, adjusted on monthly basis based on previous month''s average CPO price. Keeps at Outperform with S$3.40 target price. Share up 2.3% at S$2.64.(LES)

 

a better today! but still nt high enough. go go go indoagri let your bull roars......

 

such a drastic drop, something behind the scence??

 

Hope it will be a better tomorrow, Indoagri let the bull roars.......

 

good thing i read my charts well...drastic drop..

ozone2002      ( Date: 23-Jun-2008 15:50) Posted: vol looks suspicious.. maybe a fake breakout..

 

STI up 26 pts. Looks like shortsellers buying back

 

Profit taking happening.  Waiting for attractive level to go in.