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What time is the announcement?
and the slide begins! whee!
elfie needs to sleep. past a small elf's bedtime. sigh.
3 more minutes
careful DJIA. just saw the 6 mth chart. recent rally on low vol. if follows previous pattern (short rally on low vol followed by long down on high vol), then the drop will likely be steep. by RSI, i'd give this current rally at most 2 more days. cross RSI ~55 be careful, may retrace.
fyi US GDP news. released at 2130 Spore time:
-------------------
Economy much weaker than expected
Gross domestic product slowed to a 0.6% growth rate in the fourth quarter, raising both recession fears and hope for another deep Fed cut.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
January 30 2008: 8:51 AM EST
 |
| Economic growth was much weaker than expected. |
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economy grew at a much slower pace in the last three months of the year, according to a government report Wednesday that came in well below Wall Street expectations.
The report raised fears of a recession and hopes for another significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 0.6%, adjusted for inflation, in the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department, down from 4.9% in the final reading of growth in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast GDP would slow to a 1.2%.
The report comes amid rising concern that the U.S. economy is falling into a recession, with some economists arguing the downturn started in the final month of 2007.
It also comes as the Fed concludes a two-day meeting to consider whether or not to cut interest rates once again in order to spur the economy and ward off a recession. The central bank has already lowered rates by 1.75 percentage points since September, including an emergency 0.75 percentage point cut, also known as a 75 basis point cut, a week ago.
Investors are betting that the Fed announces at least another quarter percentage point cut, or 25 basis points, when it announces its decision at 2:15 p.m. ET, with those buying fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were pricing in a 70% chance of a half-point, or 50 basis point cut, ahead of the GDP report.
But while the weakness in the report suggested that the Fed might move aggressively to cut rates, the inflation readings in the report could be a concern for the central bank. The so-called price deflator, which measures prices overall, rose at a 2.6% annual rate, up from only a 1% rise in the third quarter but in line with forecasts.
Perhaps of greater concern is that the so-called core PCE deflator - a more closely watched inflation reading that measures prices that individuals pay excluding volatile food and energy prices - rose 2.7%, up from a 2.0% reading in the third quarter and nearly double the 1.4% rise in the second quarter.
The Fed is generally seen as wanting to see that reading rise between 1% and 2%, meaning the latest reading is far from its so-called comfort zone
Good thing that US closed green covering some of Friday's losses.
So Cashier, does the index look good technically? Any Chances of retracement back to 3200-3400?
Seems like US is already starting to discount the negative news, hope it brings out the slowdown story rather than a recession.
This Wed would be extremely crucial, let's see if the bulls or bears win
Good Sign, DOW close above the 1st Downtrend Resistance trend line which it did not cross on friday.
Was thinking bad news from new home sales will affect the market but turned out it will work in favour of the interest rate.
Unlikely that will happen. Looks like market will be waiting for news from US.
Stocks set to slide
Futures drop as overseas markets retreat on economic worries; investors await Fed policy meeting.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised for a rough start
Monday as investors watched most major overseas markets tumble and
awaited the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting along with
President Bush's final State of the Union address.
At 6:16 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P
futures were sharply lower, indicating a negative start for Wall Street.
Hanging over investors was another big drop in
world markets. Stocks tumbled across
Asia,
with Japan's Nikkei closing down nearly 4 percent and the Shanghai
Composite plunging more than 7 percent. Markets in Singapore, Seoul and
Taiwan also all lost more than 3 percent.
European markets also fell in morning trading, with major indexes there down between 1 and 2 percent in the early going.
Oil
prices tumbled below the $90 a barrel mark on global recession fears,
as a barrel of light sweet crude lost $1.49 to $89.22 a barrel in
electronic trading.
Investors worldwide have their focus on the
Federal Reserve, which kicks off a two-day policy meeting Tuesday.
Markets are expecting the U.S. central bank to
lower rates again after making an
emergency cut last week.
Investors also await President Bush's
State of the Union
address for more comments on the U.S. economy and administration
proposals for dealing with the slowdown beyond the deal reached last
week. A bipartisan deal on a $150 billion
stimulus package was announced Thursday.
A
batch of reports that may offer more clues about whether the U.S.
economy is headed for a recession are on tap this week. The key report
is the government's closely watched reading on the labor sector, which
is due on Friday.
Just hope that some good news report will be out or a last rally of expectation of rate cut tonight to make both DOW and STI to close green tml.
All futures indices (DOW, S&P, Nasdaq) are in the red at the moment. Looks like US markets will open red as well tonight. My guess is that it will close red and Asian markets will open red tomorrow.
Make sure red is still a lucky colour by doing the 'right' way of trading (shorting). Good luck to all!
it is difficult what is going to happen in 10 mins time......just know that it will be volatile
It is not easy to predict what is going to happen the week before CNY.
But for tomorrow..... sign...... more red than green based on market sentiments.
Jim Rogers in today's ST was correct and also judging from the last crash
Ratec cuts will come and it will hit 2 percent later
In the last crash experience , mkt will go crash down at the last rate cut
Another rate cut coming? See the words I bolded in red. The market has ALREADY factored in another rate cut. Imagine what happens if it doesn't materialise?
U.S. stocks turn to Fed, again, and jobs
By
Nick Godt, MarketWatch
NEW
YORK (MarketWatch) -- Investors will again turn to the Federal Reserve
next week, in the hope that the central bank delivers another
substantial cut in interest rates to further help soothe frayed nerves
in the market, while uncertainty about the economy will likely extend
through the release of the January jobs report next Friday.
"This week ahead is likely to be a big week for the
markets, with lots of important economic news, a Fed meeting and a
number of big earnings reports due out," said Michael Sheldon,
strategist at Spencer Clarke.
The central bank will
meet Jan. 29 to 30 and issue its decision on rates at 2.15 p.m.
Wednesday.
The market has fully priced in at least a quarter-percentage
point cut, and priced in 70% odds that the Fed will cut by half a
point, even after delivering an emergency 75 basis-point cut last
Tuesday
Someone advised on the DOW (I read from somewhere) :
The banks will report and write off all losses first
The DOW will priced in the recession first
The STI will react accordingly
Then we can go into STI and buy
Yes what George Soros predicted 2 years ago when he came to Singapore came true. He predicted a global recession in 2007 due to US housing market slump. Read carefully what he said in yesterday's business times and there is a slight change in tune. There is a cushion provided by China and India
All previous postings are from records/documentations/experience
This one is my thoughts : How can DOW go for first time 75 pts cuts ?
Something tells you they know - a very serious financial crisis (like Mr Soros said)
I would like to hear what Mr Soros can tell us what will happen in the end
What he said in Spore years ago came accurately - the sub prime will bring down the mkts
(As for the US dollar - Soros said he knows what will happen but he will not be telling us, only Morgan Stanley dare say a run on the US banks will be the worst case scenario)
Simple thinking shows Mr Bernanke's policy of haphazard cutting shows inexperience and danger is now here
A simple man like us know something is deadly wrong just by looking at the rate cuts
Notice after rates cuts, DOW rally getting shorter and shorter
They know the end is coming
Those who got in STI for 3rd day rally must be getting abit nervous...........
Monday will be the day to pay back ..................
Today in ST :
Economist criticised - Economic stimulus package only a great phsycological boots for the mkt
Bulls throw in the towel
Stocks retreat as investors plead exhaustion after two-day rally capping a volatile week.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tanked Friday, as investors
abandoned ship after a two-session rally that followed a tough start to
the new year.
The Dow Jones industrial average (
INDU) lost 1.4 percent. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 (
SPX) index lost 1.6 percent, and the Nasdaq composite (
COMP) lost 1.5 percent.
