Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Livermore:

Its not the professionals: they are plenty, its the total masses, the pipe fitters, welders, electrical, there are just not enough of them to go round all the shipyard projects (they are 90% all imported). In time places like China with its huge landed / shore line area un-limited own (not imported) work force will overtake.  

 

Only the funds can move the market...

And remember, the funds also know

that money can be made in shorting as well... 

 

 

Seems like the STI has topped out for at least the short term. sigh....

 

Hi Galileo,

I agree with you on the workers part in the oil related industries. Now we can take overseas professionals from China and India but in future they might not even want to come to Singapore as they have better opportunities back home......

 

As for whether these oil related companies can deliver due to manpower shortage, that I cannot say.....

 

Was confident that the STI will closed just above 3500 (was away for course after 2.45 pm) even though the STI at that time looked menacing downwards because spore economic is still good and intact while the properities fever has simmered (not so crazy in chasing the property prices up and up).

 

Liveremore:

I agree S'pore local stocks with the projects in hand are still very good value, barring internatioinal concerns we do not know of. But per your example the trouble with the likes of shipyards & offshore projects that people may not realize is that they are all using the same sub-contactors, they are all grabbing deals because if you don't the competion will, but there is a huge vacuum of sub -contractors I think in time this will catch yards out. there is a vast gap between marketing & production, we can deliver - where are all the workers coming from. 

 

Index Value: 3,505.50 Trade Time: 5:06PM SGT Change:  19.60 (0.56%) Prev Close: 3,525.10 Open: 3,513.50 Day's Range: 3,485.02 - 3,537.38 52wk Range: 2,319.03 - 3,652.02

 

Woeful on Wall Street

Futures point to lower open as Fed prepares to start two-day meeting; subprime worries plague markets worldwide.

 

The analyst that called a sell on Singapore stocks should ask this question. Can that other country which the analyst has a ove weight rating attract the same level of business investment and business opportunities that Singapore is able to create?

 

totally agreed with livermore. if drop further, it create great buying opportunity for good company as q2 results reporting is coming.

 

As you know an analyst called a sell on Singapore stocks and called for a overweight on this other country.

 

Well if I were an analyst I won't be calling a sell on Singapore stocks though its P/E is16(as reported in papers)? You don't sell something which has momentum and when future earnings will justify its present valuation. China is P/E is 50 and we are still a long way off from a "bubble". Singapore's growth story is expected to continue barring any unforseen circumstances.

 

You might sell and put your money in soemthing with supposedly more attractive valuation. But attractive valuation sometimes may not mean much upside potential and money is wasted when the stock stays there and not moving for a long time.

 

SembMarine and Sembcorp shares are just classic examples of two companies which just keep winning contracts and the stocks just keep moving higher and higher........

 

   

 

The full moon in a couple of days may bring a strong rebound...

But all depends on the Dow's action on the previois night. 

 

Jim Rogers used to say oil should reach US$100/barrel soon....

 

Frankly I am hoping oil will just bounce from US$65 to $70 and not more than US$75...

 

 

 

 

 

China Stock Market Bubble Won't Yet Burst
China's booming equities market, the key barometer of the health of the world's fastest-growing major economy, is an "incipient bubble" but can't be characterized as one waiting to burst just yet, renowned global investor Jim Rogers said Wednesday.

27 June 2007

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones) -- China's booming equities market, the key barometer of the health of the world's fastest-growing major economy, is an "incipient bubble" but can't be characterized as one waiting to burst just yet, renowned global investor Jim Rogers said Wednesday. The Chinese government, however, will need to do more to cool the domestic economy, amid risks of a global fallout in the event of a hard landing. "If (the market) doubles, it'll be a full-fledged bubble and that's when I'm going to pull out," Rogers said of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. "And I don't want to do that - I want to hold on to my Chinese shares all my life," the billionaire investor told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview. Rogers, a longtime bull on China and best known for his decades of successful bets on global commodities, said Beijing is doing what's needed so far but will need to keep monitoring. "There are plenty of things they can do. They could raise interest rates and make their currency convertible so you could arbitrage. And they could tax capital gains," he said. He noted there is excess liquidity globally, but described China as a "closed circuit" given that foreign investors don't have full access to it. As a result, domestic investors are feeling "trapped" and are instead pouring money into shares and property - feeding the bubble further.

Little Danger Of Global Meltdown

Rogers, who first turned his attention to China around the time of his first visit there in 1984, however downplayed the risks of a widely feared global meltdown, should the Chinese economy tumble. Investors were spooked when a near-9% drop in the Shanghai Stock Exchange index in February triggered a wave of selling around the world. He suggested China's stock markets could come off significantly, using a ballpark figure of 70%, but the country's economy could still grow "3%" because it has broader-based fundamentals. In China and elsewhere, "I'm bullish on agriculture (commodities), the renminbi, the yen. And I won't sell U.S. dollars right now," Rogers said. He noted in particular that the Japanese currency may have plenty of upside given the potential unwinding of so-called yen carry-trades. Further, he's also positive on the Canadian dollar but not the Swiss franc, and in terms of stocks, favors "airlines over stockbrokers."

US Most Vulnerable

Rogers, 65, cofounded with celebrity investor George Soros, the Quantum Fund in 1970, and created the Rogers International Commodities Index in 1998. Increasingly, he sees the U.S. economy as vulnerable and Europe and Asia "less so." "America is probably already in recession," he said of the underperforming automobile and housing sectors, noting how the latter has now led to problems in the financial services sector. He said central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, aren't doing all that's necessary to contain excess liquidity, and that some policies are unsustainable. "(Fed chief Ben) Bernanke is printing more and more money. If central banks continue on this path, there would be the demise of some of them," he said. His remarks came just days before July 2, the anniversary of the steep devaluation of the Thai baht that triggered the East Asian economic crisis 10 years ago.

Buy Oil, Commodities

Amid this uncertain outlook, investors could fall back on commodities, including energy directly rather than through equities, Rogers said. He noted how commodities have historically showed a "supply-demand imbalance" that offers an opportunity: if stock prices collapsed, any dip in commodities prices is a chance to buy. Meantime, while "there's been no more 'elephant' discoveries for 40 years," there's little risk of running out of oil just yet. Rather, the world is likely only running out of "excessive oil, known oil," and doesn't necessarily mean reserves are about to be depleted, he said. Rogers, who will deliver a lunchtime presentation in Singapore next week to a group of equities investors, also touched on geopolitics. The U.S., as the world's only superpower, hasn't addressed the issues of global security nearly six years since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, he said. "America's making a terrible mistake right now," he said of U.S. engagement in Iraq and its role in the Middle East, suggesting the situation could worsen later this year, toward the presidential elections. Problems, including mounting tensions between the West and a nuclear-ambitious Iran, are likely to persist beyond the end of President George W. Bush's second and final term in office that ends in January. "If war breaks out, buy commodities," he said.

 

hi ed88ks, not saying that investors need to be both. Just think that its best to stick to one's gameplan that he/she is comfortable with.

 

Centaur, as an individual investor, it's not easy to be both, we can choose to be FA or TA .

of coz if one is to be a blue chip player and not in penny , holding power may help. but again profit growth may not be great. In a bull run of coz, TA will shine where contra play offer huge return, and it cut both way...

 

rayphua, i agree with you. but 1 should really stick to what's he's best at, be it TA, FA, shortist etc. If one is truly a FA player, then the Index is not so much of a concern.

Look at Warren, he keep averaging down when Amex goes downhill and price recover only 2 years after that. Thats how confident he is when selecting stocks. Think most of us would have throw in the towel than to wait 2 years. Who knows, Creative might just be that but the point is, if u have no confident in the counter, why go into it (even though it might be a gem later) and give yourself unlimited sleepless nights? juz my view though

 

Ray... :)


As a matter of fact, I hardly even think of those investment bigwicks at all...

I am too busy thinking of my own TA study world than to think of buffet... etc...

(Anyway, keep do up the superb work you are now doing for the members...
good work). 

 

is seeping into the market...

One can see it in the way stocks are falling....

Beautiful TA patterns/formations on a lot of stocks are 'damaged' by the unusual bearishness.

Bad !!!