SPC   

SPC

haha..as expected...did anyone shorted in my previous call? hee....

downtrend sustainable? hee...

 

ML's estimate of FY profit of $290 mil is in line with mine ($285 to 310mil)....see my earlier post...26 Oct.



Perhaps the purpose of their optimistism is to talk up the price so that they can unload their holdings to the unsuspecting.

 

   Based on current market cap of $2371.9 million and the projected FY 06 earning of $290 million, the PE is 8.2 times. ML seems to think that SPC should trade at a PE of 10.7 times based on their fair value of $6 for the stock. Seems a little too optimistic when the peers of SPC are trading at about 7 to 8 times PE. Just my view.

 

Following the results, Merrill Lynch cut its target price to $6 from $6.50 previously but said it was maintaining its "buy" rating on the stock.



"Short-term volatility will occur because of refining margins and oil prices. However, we view the refining cycle as intact while on the upstream side, we look for further exploration success to translate to increased oil and gas production," Merrill said in a note to clients.



Merrill Lynch expects SPC's net profit to fall from $404 mln last year to $290 mln this year, and to decelerate further to $283 mln next year and to $219 mln in 2008.

 

The world will grind to halt if everyone chooses not to use electricity.  In a world of darkness,  may be more babies will be born, OK. . S'pore govt may want to ration  power supply as a way to boost population growth.   R  U  a prophet -  can foresee that oil  may one day become  the same in price as mineral water.  Really?

 

Well you can choose not to use electricity.... ( just kidding). Point taken. Nice to know that we like oil price to fall until it become the price of mineral water!

 

We don't have much choice but to "fuel" the super rich, not that we want to.  One day, we may become "super poor" if  the "oil sheikhs" decide to "strangle" the whole world. My point is "oil" is a basic necessity that is being "exploited"   by "gamblers".  Of course, the "poorest" of the "super rich" will also suffer.  

 

In every market, there is demand and supply. The oil market is just like a stock market. Only difference is oil is traded worldwide. People like us are also fueling the lifestyle of the 'super' rich. We use electricity, pump petrol ...... So, don't pinpoint that the super rich caused misery to the super poor. It is the market. We are part of the market.

 

The "super rich"  will one day regret the untold misery they have caused to the "super poor" . who are often driven to extreme desperation.   Oil is such a basic commodity yet they had  "no conscience"  but to ramp the price all the way up.    What a relief to the billions of "super poor" that at least oil has taken a dip!!.  If oil hits US$100 per barrel, as predicted by certain vested  individuals, what would the world be like then?  No point trying to help when misery has already been caused!!

 

Hi Kitty, the rich will always get richer! It is a cruel fact. I just hope that these people will help others who are in need. Easy come , easy go..

 

Oil has "cheong" for the past 3 years . Those gamblers will surely go to ???? for causing so much misery to the billions of  poverty-stricken people who are dying daily because they can't even afford basic food  or health care.  Time that the wicked ones must die for causing so much misery.  Surely, they can't carry the money with them when they go to ????  Oil and marine related shares shd also be due for a correction soon after having headed north for some time.  

 

err..base on fundamentals of oil over supply and ease of Nkorea/Iran nuclear threats..i think oil price will fall...so SPC margin wont be gd for short term...worth the risk to short ..hee....

 

Nicky u very brave. Don't be stripped naked by shorting - your shorts become shorter and u'll be left stark naked, liao!

 

hee...looks like can short this counter liao....down trend all the way!! :P

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6085764.stm

attack on nigerian oil facilities

 

DBSV has cut its target price to $5.02 from $5.28 previously after the company posted lower-than-expected earnings in the third quarter. DBSV said net profit was sharply below its forecast of $90m.



"While refining margins were in line, earnings were hit by a provision for inventory write-down of $71m due to the 25% decline in crude oil prices, which was partly offset by a mark-to-market gain of $39.1m from its crude oil and product hedging activities," DBSV said in a note to clients.



The brokerage cut its 2006 net profit estimate by 15% to $308m and its 2007 net profit estimate by 9% to $347.3m.

 

   Support is very strong at the $4.64/4.66 level. Shortists, if any, must be quite disappointed. 

 

hehe will wait them to short this counter first then can go in with discount =)

 

anybody shorting this counter?

 

today SPC will be trending downwards till the next rally in Jan07. refining margins only USD4 a barrel compared to USD8 a barrel when oil price peaked.