CapitaMalls Asia   

First Day trading open at $2.30

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wangwa
    26-Jan-2011 16:32  
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I think the trades are mainly shortist on this counter. People who lost hope already sold at $2+, or at prices when it rebounced back to 1.96 a few days back. Unluckly that this bugger is down, while market rallies.

I don;t think people who bought at high prices will sell at this ridiculous price.

The 52 weeks price range is getting narrower and narrower, with the upper level tappering down and lower price hovering at 1.85-1.89

This jockey stick curve will come. Keep accumulating and wait that surge.
 
 
LP560-4
    25-Jan-2011 18:04  
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i've been following your blog for quite some time. will follow you!

sgtrader      ( Date: 24-Jan-2011 21:51) Posted:


 
 
Bluevaio
    24-Jan-2011 23:04  
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sgtrader
    24-Jan-2011 21:51  
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wangwa
    24-Jan-2011 15:56  
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I also dunno...let's all hold on to see. Maybe we will see those values somewhere this yr.

Rememeber fixed deposit also takes 1-3 yrs to mature



ozone2002      ( Date: 24-Jan-2011 14:08) Posted:

Stores of value – where are they?

CapitaMalls Asia (CMA SP, S$1.91, OW)

CapitaMalls Asia’s shares have de-rated significantly in the last 3 months on the

back of concerns arising from the potential listing of alternative China retail real

estate vehicles that could compete more intensely in the direct property level as well

as in the capital markets, a longer than expected gestation period for the group’s

China portfolio and major shareholders rebalancing their position.

Whilst we believe that operating environment will continue to remain challenging

and so is the competition in the capital markets, we think CMA's asset value is well

under appreciated, especially in its China segment. More importantly, with most of

the 2nd and 3rd tier city malls coming out of its first rental reversion cycle and

substantial amount of 1st tier malls to be completed in the next year, we are likely to

see a J-curve earnings trajectory for the group's China portfolio.

CMA in China - at the heel of the hockey stick

We believe that the performance of CMA's China portfolio has been one of the key

dragging factors for the group's share price performance, especially when the

market's heightened expectation about returns in China was met with little

contribution due to longer than expected gestation period and a rather chunky fixed

cost base. As the group moves into its 5th year of mall operations in China, we

expect a number of the 2nd and 3rd tier city malls to come out of their first rental

reversion cycle and to register strong rental reversions. The completion of a couple of

1st tier city malls in the coming year would also help to add to the bottom line in a

substantial way.

Whilst rental earnings contribution might still be modest in 2011 as a result of preopening

charges and large fix cost base, we expect earnings from China to more than

triple by 2012 as a result of stronger rental contributions and the operating leverage

embedded in the business. In addition, strong revaluation gains for the next couple of

years would also add to the group's bottom line. We estimate a 3-year earnings

CAGR of 23%.

CMA under-valuation

We believe CapitaMalls Asia is undervalued, currently trading at 1.1x FY11E book,

11x FY11 reported P/E and 31% discount to our SOTP valuation of S$2.75/share.. In

fact, we estimate that the stock is currently trading at 15% discount to its tangible net

asset value, pricing in zero valuation for the group's funds management business

which has almost S$13bn AUM under management and zero valuation for the

platform and its potential to scale up even further. For a detailed analysis of CMA,

please see our report dated 21 January 2011 entitled
“At the heel of the hockey stick”.


 
 
ozone2002
    24-Jan-2011 14:08  
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Stores of value – where are they?

CapitaMalls Asia (CMA SP, S$1.91, OW)

CapitaMalls Asia’s shares have de-rated significantly in the last 3 months on the

back of concerns arising from the potential listing of alternative China retail real

estate vehicles that could compete more intensely in the direct property level as well

as in the capital markets, a longer than expected gestation period for the group’s

China portfolio and major shareholders rebalancing their position.

Whilst we believe that operating environment will continue to remain challenging

and so is the competition in the capital markets, we think CMA's asset value is well

under appreciated, especially in its China segment. More importantly, with most of

the 2nd and 3rd tier city malls coming out of its first rental reversion cycle and

substantial amount of 1st tier malls to be completed in the next year, we are likely to

see a J-curve earnings trajectory for the group's China portfolio.

CMA in China - at the heel of the hockey stick

We believe that the performance of CMA's China portfolio has been one of the key

dragging factors for the group's share price performance, especially when the

market's heightened expectation about returns in China was met with little

contribution due to longer than expected gestation period and a rather chunky fixed

cost base. As the group moves into its 5th year of mall operations in China, we

expect a number of the 2nd and 3rd tier city malls to come out of their first rental

reversion cycle and to register strong rental reversions. The completion of a couple of

1st tier city malls in the coming year would also help to add to the bottom line in a

substantial way.

Whilst rental earnings contribution might still be modest in 2011 as a result of preopening

charges and large fix cost base, we expect earnings from China to more than

triple by 2012 as a result of stronger rental contributions and the operating leverage

embedded in the business. In addition, strong revaluation gains for the next couple of

years would also add to the group's bottom line. We estimate a 3-year earnings

CAGR of 23%.

CMA under-valuation

We believe CapitaMalls Asia is undervalued, currently trading at 1.1x FY11E book,

11x FY11 reported P/E and 31% discount to our SOTP valuation of S$2.75/share.. In

fact, we estimate that the stock is currently trading at 15% discount to its tangible net

asset value, pricing in zero valuation for the group's funds management business

which has almost S$13bn AUM under management and zero valuation for the

platform and its potential to scale up even further. For a detailed analysis of CMA,

please see our report dated 21 January 2011 entitled
“At the heel of the hockey stick”.

 

 
ozone2002
    24-Jan-2011 14:06  
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Christopher Gee, CFA

(65) 6882-2345

christopher.ka.gee@jpmorgan.com

Table 2: CapitaLand: Singapore comparative valuations

As indicated

Price Price Market RNAV Prem/Disc

to RNAV

Core

P/E

BV P/B Gearing ROE

Rating target Cap Forecast Forecast FY11E FY11E FY11E FY11E FY11E

(S$) (S$) (S$ MM) (S$) (%) (X) (S$) (X) (%) (%)

Allgreen UW 1.14 1.13 1,797 1.59 -28.8% 13.8 1.62 0.70 47.7% 5.0%

CapitaLand OW 4.60 3.68 15,686 5.71 -35.4% 19.2 3.67 1.00 27.8% 9.4%

City Developments N 14.00 11.84 10,766 14.75 -19.7% 15.6 8.18 1.45 27.0% 9.3%

CapitaMalls Asia OW 2.60 1.92 7,457 2.59 -25.9% 31.3 1.58 1.21 -8.5% 4.5%

 
 
ozone2002
    24-Jan-2011 10:51  
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ozone2002
    24-Jan-2011 09:04  
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Retail-linked REITs a good choice: Analysts
SINGAPORE - With improving economic indicators and rising tourist arrivals, analysts are singling out retail-linked real estate investment trusts (REITs) as good investment bets for investors.

Compared with the office sector, the retail sector has remained much more resilient, said Mumbai-based financial group IIFL in its Jan 11 report.

It has positive ratings on retail play REITs like CapitaMall Trust and CapitMall Asia, citing the bullishness on retail sales and space demand, which will be driven by strong GDP growth and tourist arrivals in the next two years.

IIFL upgraded CapitaMall Trust to "buy" on Friday after it reported a 9.24-cents distribution per unit for 2010. "We like its robust occupancy rate (99.3 per cent) and steady growth via strong reversions (6.5 per cent) in FY2010," IIFL said. The trust's asset enhancements initiatives in JCube and Atrium @Orchard are also expected to generate an additional $20 million in rental income in 2013.

IIFL's Jan 11 report estima-ted rentals would grow between 2 and 5 per cent a year in 2011 to 2012, with prime rentals growing faster in the Orchard area at 3 to 5 per cent yearly, on the lack of new supply.

Starhill Global REIT, which generates two-thirds of its revenue from Ngee Ann City and Wisma Atria is likely to benefit as well from this, Kim Eng analyst Anni Kum said in a Jan 11 report.

Ms Kum reiterated a "buy" rating on Starhill Global noting that about 20 per cent of its retail leases in Singapore are expiring this year and that so far, the rates of those leases are about 30 per cent below rentals in the fourth quarter of last year. Kim Eng sees a positive rental revision in the next two years.

While rents in the prime Orchard district head north, the scenario for suburban retail rents will come under pressure as new retail spaces come on stream, Ms Kum's report said.

The opening of Clementi Mall, JCube and Changi City Point could see rental rates going down in the suburbs. Among those likely to feel this impact is Frasers Centrepoint Trust.

"FCT, with its 100-per-cent exposure to suburban malls, is likely to be affected," wrote OCBC analyst Ong Kian Lin in a Jan 11 report. "With only four local malls under its asset portfolio (Causeway Point, Northpoint, Anchorpoint, Yewtee Point), there is a limit to how much further it can scale, compared to CapitaMall Trust - the largest retail REIT which has 15 malls under its belt," the report added, maintaining a "hold" rating.

 
 
phil1314
    22-Jan-2011 13:28  
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Not to worry about falling to $1.85 as volume has been thin, STI fallen for few days and price stabilizing around $1.91.

I think if short sellers in most counters are beginning to get cornered next week, this counter have a possibility of just staying around this level.

I sold 30 lots at $1.95 and bought back 10 lots at $1.90. Still waiting to buy back another 20 lots if drop lower.



wangwa      ( Date: 20-Jan-2011 11:33) Posted:

this is terrible. Some small gains accumulated over past few days completely wiped out just on this 1 day today. Approaching 1.85 again..

 

 
wangwa
    20-Jan-2011 11:33  
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this is terrible. Some small gains accumulated over past few days completely wiped out just on this 1 day today. Approaching 1.85 again..
 
 
wangwa
    19-Jan-2011 14:32  
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when CMA posting results? can't seem to find it anywhere
 
 
ozone2002
    19-Jan-2011 13:45  
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very controlled share..

i like controlled stocks..:)
 
 
wangwa
    19-Jan-2011 10:08  
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1.94 support looks weak. With no Big Guys to support, 1.94 may be broken to make way for 1.91/1.90
 
 
ozone2002
    19-Jan-2011 09:57  
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light trading vol so far..

can go either way..

support @ 1.94

gd luck~!
 

 
phil1314
    19-Jan-2011 09:42  
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Wayang over price should fall back to $1.85 to $1.90 range

wangwa      ( Date: 19-Jan-2011 08:01) Posted:

volume is too small for big impact. Wonder if the big seller will come back today?

 
 
wangwa
    19-Jan-2011 08:01  
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volume is too small for big impact. Wonder if the big seller will come back today?
 
 
ozone2002
    18-Jan-2011 15:23  
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Last Trades Vol BuyVol Mid SellVol
1.950 29 224 158 0 66
1.954 1 29 0 29 0
1.955 1 11 0 11 0
1.960 156 1,111 0 0 1,111
TOTAL 187 1,375 158 40 1,177


 

someone is just eating up the sell Q @1.96
 
 
Hulumas
    18-Jan-2011 10:34  
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I do not read too much, I just buy CMA as long as <Sgd. 2.00.

Farmer      ( Date: 17-Jan-2011 22:51) Posted:

Anyone wanna summaries this piece of Good News?

 
 
phil1314
    18-Jan-2011 09:37  
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After the marriage wayang yesterday, volume has dropped today. Whatever had to be done yesterday are already done deals. Today see situation revert to normal.

What directions the stock price will take tomorrow onwards really depend on market sentiments on the property front.

Any new property acquisitions by the company during this period of high property prices means a longer digestion period. But surely nothing can go wrong if company acquisitions are long term.



ozone2002      ( Date: 17-Jan-2011 10:03) Posted:

Last Trades Vol BuyVol Mid SellVol
1.914 1 725 0 725 0
1.918 1 440 0 440 0
1.919 1 300 0 300 0


 

so many married deals today..

something is brewing..

technicals looking good..

good luck!