Others
things every retail investor/trader should know
Post Reply
661-680 of 689
Hi elfinchilde
I appreciate your posts very much. Thanks a million.
we all appreciate you educating the small fries here.. at least it helps us learn better and to help manage our investments a tad wiser.. it's difficult here to try to score when the market is so small and we're trying to learn but few are willing to teach or show the rope.
elfinchilde ( Date: 11-Aug-2008 13:21) Posted:
hm. and one more thing:
i don't like telling people what to do, since then, as investors, they'd be liable to just abdicate responsibility to you. That'd be a crippled mind. The aim is that each investor learns to become independent. They must make their own buy/sell calls.
which is why i'm more keen that each small fry learns technicals themselves (or FA, or macros, or psychology); so that they can survive on their own. Independence is key.
So past patterns is very important in understanding the future, in learning about probabilities; the characteristics of a counter, how it moves; the patterns. From these you are expected to derive the tactics of the BBs yourselves; because that is something that cannot be discussed in the open. Already, few courses here teach using actual examples, much less offer cautions/recommendations.
Of course, if you're the kinda person who just goes "Ahhhh, don't talk crap! just tell me buy or sell!" then hehe, apologies, the elfin lessons aren't for you. 
I do know my 'cautions' on various counters may be very subtle, a blink-and-you-miss-it, but then, this is an open forum with 16,000 members, and countless other unknown members of the public reading. I can't be overt. As it is, methinks i'm too overt already. Attention is not a good thing if you want to survive in the game. 
i also think i'm nuts to want to try educating small fries instead of standing on the side of the BBs.  |
|
good article, cwquah. shows the massive amount of manipulation that occurs in markets.
(or ok, we'll just call it the flow of big money. hehe.)
these are the kind of things that happen all over the world, really.
s'porean investors especially need to watch out, ours is a much smaller market, and also because we don't exactly have recourse if a counter you bought dropped 50% in one week. We don't ban shorting here; neither do we have a case if a stock collapses. our authorities really can't (or won't) protect the little people (apart from sending useless queries, and giving measly fines of 5k-15k to offending BBs. Imagine. 5k. To people who can throw 100 lots of cosco at one shot. what a joke.
). Hence, the little people need to learn to arm and protect themselves in the market.
and the second thing we learn about the bear sterns incident, which is what i've always been saying: that there's a
very big difference between a company, and its stock.
Perception is what rules the latter.
nah, jchongll, i don't think there's such a thing as not being bright enough. what i'm trying to pass on
is not easy to understand; especially for retailers, who are outside of the inner circle and not privy to BB minds. So it does take a lot of time. Plus need to change mindset about what trading/investing is all about. So it isn't a once-off or fast process. Gotta think longterm and be determined to stick to it.
i do know my warnings are very blink-and-you'll-miss-it, and am rather sorry for that. but they have to be so out of necessity, so it's really a no-choice scenario.
actually, if you suddenly find me "appearing" a lot in a counter, it's a warning signal usually.
and i'll give a
sixth warning for cosco now: from BUSD and queue track, it appears that lots are being stacked up for a fall again.
235 and 216 are critical levels. 216 is the nov 06 support, if that breaks, say hello to 165. I believe 235 will be easily taken out sometime this week.
elfinchilde,
really appreciate what you have advised so far.. for a novice like me, it really bring some light... but me not very bright.. think need really more time to digest what you said... and i definitely belonged to the category of 'blink and you miss it'... lol..
will definitely sign up for any class/seminar/workshop you'll be organising... and agree with you.. one-time is definitely not enuf... need revision.. lol...
cheers...
hm. and one more thing:
i don't like telling people what to do, since then, as investors, they'd be liable to just abdicate responsibility to you. That'd be a crippled mind. The aim is that each investor learns to become independent. They
must make their own buy/sell calls.
which is why i'm more keen that each small fry learns technicals themselves (or FA, or macros, or psychology); so that they can survive on their own. Independence is key.
So past patterns is very important in understanding the future, in learning about probabilities; the characteristics of a counter, how it moves; the
patterns. From these you are expected to derive the tactics of the BBs yourselves; because that is something that cannot be discussed in the open. Already, few courses here teach using actual examples, much less offer cautions/recommendations.
Of course, if you're the kinda person who just goes "Ahhhh, don't talk crap! just tell me buy or sell!" then hehe, apologies, the elfin lessons aren't for you.
I do know my 'cautions' on various counters may be very subtle, a blink-and-you-miss-it, but then, this is an open forum with 16,000 members, and countless other unknown members of the public reading. I
can't be overt. As it is, methinks i'm too overt already. Attention is not a good thing if you want to survive in the game.
i also think i'm nuts to want to try educating small fries instead of standing on the side of the BBs.
erm, if you've read the cosco thread, i gave multiple warnings on it already (just backtrack and check my posts):
technical cautions on cosco was given by me on:
5th Aug 1206 hr and 5th Aug 1133 hr @ px of 2.74.
4th Aug 1529 hr @ px of 2.97 (a key warning that it wouldn't kill people to wait at least one day if they wanted to buy cosco.)
and much earlier, the warnings that the rebounds were merely technical, that once the BBs issue buy calls, that means it is time to sell.
respectively on
20 jun 1940 hr @ px of 334.
19 jun 1140 hr @ px of 337.
That's five different warnings given in the space of 7 weeks, for one counter, which i'm not even vested in. (-_-")....
How much more obvious am i suppose to get? Surely you can't expect me to be putting BUY! and SELL! calls. That'd definitely attract BB attention to move the counter the other way.
Besides, the entire aim is to teach people HOW to invest, and not to give tips like some coffeeshop auntie. That only breeds a lazy mentality.
cheers.
I would suggest and it will be so wonderful that having discussion or reminding of the PRE-event is more valuable, reliable and appreciable. Don't you think so?
elfinchilde ( Date: 11-Aug-2008 12:18) Posted:
small lesson for the day:
how to calculate if it's a cut, or worth risking a DCA, assuming you didn't stop loss at an early stage. (ie, remedial action).
Coscocorp being the example, since it recently nosedived.
If you look at the three year, weekly charts for cosco: derive the supports as per i've shown on the STE thread before.
1) 215 is the next support, below of which is 165. Meanwhile, for cosco to have an actual attempt at survival, it has to break 2.7, preferably 2.8. So that it can regain to 3++ glory.
2) Using today's market depth data, determine the pivots as well.
3) Using rough calculations of the lots involved in the Q:
To dive the counter to 215--ie, the point beyond which we can consider it to be beyond redemption--will require just about $2.5mil (2350 as the pivot pt), while to raise the counter so that it has potential of 'rebirth', would require at least $12mil (pivot = 2500).
-----------
hence by technicals, cosco warrants a cut rather than a DCA.
personally, by instinct and precedence, i think they may have played this counter dead. |
|
small lesson for the day:
how to calculate if it's a cut, or worth risking a DCA, assuming you didn't stop loss at an early stage. (ie, remedial action).
Coscocorp being the example, since it recently nosedived.
If you look at the three year, weekly charts for cosco: derive the supports as per i've shown on the STE thread before.
1) 215 is the next support, below of which is 165. Meanwhile, for cosco to have an actual attempt at survival, it has to break 2.7, preferably 2.8. So that it can regain to 3++ glory.
2) Using today's market depth data, determine the pivots as well.
3) Using rough calculations of the lots involved in the Q:
To dive the counter to 215--ie, the point beyond which we can consider it to be beyond redemption--will require just about $2.5mil (2350 as the pivot pt), while to raise the counter so that it has potential of 'rebirth', would require at least $12mil (pivot = 2500).
-----------
hence by technicals, cosco warrants a cut rather than a DCA.
personally, by instinct and precedence, i think they may have played this counter dead.
We have a similar style. I never put all my lots at one price on my first initial buy for a stock. I need to "test water" first
elfinchilde ( Date: 07-Aug-2008 16:07) Posted:
hm ok. am beginning to think that retailers are in worser shape than i thought. (no offence to any, yea...)
not sure how many of you know about personality profiling (which hence determines your investing/trading style), stock selection and money management. A bit too much to go into at one shot (yes, synnexo, i'm taking your advice :P )---
but for now:
if you are keen on a counter, unless you're an experienced trader, for goodness' sakes, pls do NOT just enter all at one shot, even for a fast scalp.
It may be wiser to enter only half your funds, then if it goes up, lock it in fast. But if it goes down, you still have capital to average down.
Above all: if it drops to 10% of your average px between the two buys, stop loss. Cut the counter and don't look back.
Don't wait til your counter is down 25 or 50% before you stop loss. That becomes a DCA point, not a sell point.
Also: never sell on a down day when your counter is 100% oversold. At that point, you may as well wait for a tech rebound.
This is basic money management for a trader. Just sharing. |
|
(just reposting from the capland thread)
it's very difficult for people who know to share on open forums, since you could very well be marked by them.
already, ppl like me, trader88 etc are taking a big risk when we post out. which is why generalities are only possible but not actual specific evidence: even tho i fully believe many here can give it if required.
tactics of the BB. if there's one thing you need to know in order to beat the market, it is this. combined with technicals and discipline, you need nothing else, really. but their tactics is also the most closely guarded secret of the trade.
eg, straight-off, i can tell you what you need to know to survive this counter and profit. but what's the cost to me?
we still need to survive.
-------
and thanks baseer for the inputs. much appreciated. :) i did consider those points too, which is why i'm hesitating. for one thing, if you ask me, theory is just that, theory. lots of courses can teach it; in fact, you can get it for free on the net. but in the end, it's practice that will determine a winner. and trading live is very different from just knowing the theory. That requires hands-on practice, plus consistent reinforcement. so how?
well, our kids go for private tuition, isn't it?
wonder if private tuition for stocks is possible. haha. since this way, if it's a weekly or once every two week lesson, ppl can absorb better (i can't imagine having to sit through 4-6 hrs of market info at one shot >~< ), plus there's constant reinforcement/reminder.
thamks for invaluable insights elf :) benefitted much though i don't do much posting myself. am in bad shape :(
Wow elf nice job!
.. I am just thinking out loud , without thinking through , just the first thoughts that comes across my mind ....
1) if one - off ..... the retention will wear off ... may cling to one or two points ...
2) pay -per view ... too much to read already ... might need to ask further questions to clarify a point and need to contact the author for clarifications ... can elf handle the queries ?
just putting out what came to mind ... definitely not to discourage but to give constructive inputs ...
one thing for sure ... in whatever package ... it will be a sell-out !
.. you go girl ....*snap * snap !
: )
the truth, however, is that they can.
never underestimate the power of money.
SmartBear ( Date: 07-Aug-2008 18:59) Posted:
elf, BB can't do shit to u !
|
|
Hi elf,
Thanks for sharing. Very informative.
elf, BB can't do shit to u !
yup... class . class or sharing session to start with.. now thinking of picking up a trade and not making wrong decision need a lot of thought. when I have this thought. than stay side line. don't want to reget. , speculating, investing. = ????
