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Do you know that there are FA and TA? Some people prefer to use FA, hence the debate on fundamentals, nothing wrong with that. Apparently, you like TA, also nothing wrong. I like both -- TA for trading and timing and FA for longer term investment.
Live and let live.
Ryuuenji ( Date: 15-May-2013 15:46) Posted:
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Ryuuenji ( Date: 15-May-2013 15:46) Posted:
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Why so much time spent on these financial or business model debate? There won't be who is right or wrong. All are just plain self ego debate...
Want to know the true value of how much Contel should be? Open your eyes and look at what the market forces decide. 0.06? 0.08? 0.10? 0.13?
Last week high 0.091 now 0.08..... maybe tomorrow 0.065 or 0.12? So why debate so much? Be happy and just trade along, important make money, don't care what Contel or YuuZoo worth... cannot stomach high/low trading than don't get involve....
Is this any good? How come it is hosted on yuuzoo.com? I'll join and check it out.
YuuZoo Launches Roller Derby Xtreme with Fremantle Media
https://www.yuuzoo.com/rollerderbyxtreme
First, the founders of the tech giants below are still with their company today and secondly, they truly innovated and pioneered new products and segments in the market before going IPO. Based on article below, Yuuzoo's founder makes companies, hoping one of them succeeds, sell and cashout, It's just a m-commerce copycat hoping to get a share of the market. Whole outfit smells like Rocket Internet with a twist to me. :)
http://ifonlysingaporeans.blogspot.sg/2013/05/the-finnish-futurepreneur.html
End of day, we can find means to justify the valuation, but do you understand the business model and how it competes? Otherwise you are just buying into a stock you don't know and hoping for the best.
Not vested
let me attempt to make
some sense of the valuation of $0.5bn.
Firstly, many make the
mistake of valuing/comparing growth stocks using PE. As many finance textbooks
will reveal, PE is usually used when earnings growth has more or less
stabilised. Problem with growth stocks is that future earnings (growth or
decline) are too difficult to forecast. Another problem that has surfaced with
the emergence of internet tech firms like google, facebook, linkedin is that
they have huge profit potential but the nature of the business model usually
means financial losses in the early years. Which is why, growth IT stocks have
been valued using Price-Sales ratio instead. read http://education.investors.com/investors-corner/649913-ignore-pe-ratios-in-stock-investing.htm
A quick check on google
revealed the following PS ratios of the following stocks near post-ipo:
- Facebook ~ 12 http://ycharts.com/companies/FB/ps_ratio (14 when just listed)
- Google ~ 6 http://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/ps_ratio (if you see the chart, you will see Google was
near 10 at once)
- LinkedIn ~ 18.5 http://ycharts.com/companies/LNKD/ps_ratio (21 at one point)
- Zynga ~ 2
Other than Zynga, the other 3 stocks
had/have PS of > 10. Also take note that Google is no longer a growth stock
per se, it's consistently generating profits now and it has been listed for
almost 10 years. With YuuZoo's valuation of $0.5bn and estimated sales of $35m
(based on FY12 sale growth of 35%) for FY13, the PS ratio is 14.2. Hopefully,
the valuation doesn't seem so ridiculous now.
But you may ask,
companies like Facebook, Google and even LinkedIn (if you consider it so) are
well-known giants. Surely, an IT growth stock listed on SGX with less
publicity/awareness shouldn't fetch a comparable PS ratio? Well I think this is
a valid concern and on this point, a PS of 14.2 may seem a little overpriced.
perhaps somewhere between the range of 10-12 seems more logical.
However, I do see a few
justifications that may serve to push the PS ratio and valuation upwards:
- YuuZoo, even before IPO, has accomplished what most
other IT growth stocks have failed to do before IPO and even years after
IPO - become profitable with an impressive profit margin of > 20%
(assuming unaudited financial statements are right)
- YuuZoo's presence in Asia means it is well positioned
to capitalise on Asia's growth. Firstly, its business is based on
commercialising online social media and no logical person will tell you
that conducting commercial transaction via the Internet is the next big
thing. Secondly, unlike traditional industries like research or
manufacturing, consumer-driven e-commerce is something that Asia actually
leads the world in, particularly Japan, Korea, Singapore, HK. Read the
recent acquisition of IAHgames and this 2011 private equity
factsheet https://www.google.com/url?sa=t& rct=j& q=& esrc=s& source=web& cd=3& ved=0CD0QFjAC& url=http%3A%2F%2Fbluebridgecapital.com.sg%2Freadfile.php%3Fpdf%3DYuuZoo%2520Fact%2520Sheet%2520-%252030May11.pdf& ei=wleSUdydM8urrAfyx4HgBA& usg=AFQjCNH52i7mK2PXI-qcBazfcQ8Rfs0Ocw& sig2=-UuvC_nDyBA6ItPKaTFy4g& bvm=bv.46471029,d.bmk& cad=rja
Of course there are potential
downsides. The valuation may really be too high. This RTO may be the current
shareholders way of cashing out. The growth may not be sustainable. Another
competitor may steal an edge of YuuZoo. Heck, despite all signs pointing otherwise,
the RTO with contel may not even go through (though this really is a separate
issue altogether from YuuZoo's valuation).
Personally, I
think what Contel/YuuZoo represents is a potentially great opportunity to
capitalise on a rare opportunity on sgx and in singapore. There is no sure gain
and even if things go well, it may take years before really attractive gains
are realised. Google took > 5 years but increased by more than 10x. Are there
short-term gains? Sure. There are always short-term gains to be had but I think
the real money is in the long run. but it is still a bet, though a good and
rare one. At least I hope the valuation of $0.5bn doesn't seem so insane now.
" If Singapore-based e-commerce social network YuuZoo's listing goes through, a Filipino cleaning lady will be laughing all the way to the bank. She will be at least a couple of hundred thousand dollars richer, as will all its 25 employees."
Read more.... http://ifonlysingaporeans.blogspot.sg/2013/05/the-finnish-futurepreneur.html
Same view here.I see the counter fair value is 5c.
Business model is not that fantastic.
Gd luck.
curiousAngel ( Date: 14-May-2013 19:30) Posted:
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I am a customer, a very candid one.
I said no good, because I am still short in the stocks.
I say very good, because I now heavily invested.
Wahahaha!
mlfbac ( Date: 14-May-2013 21:24) Posted:
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One way to find out is to Google the private social networks of Fremantle and Hearst and IAH and check them out. So far, those old Yuuzoo social networks are dead.
Yah, it is true, we don't have the audited 2012 results of Yuuzoo yet. And I don't quite like the price action and koyok selling by Contel/Yuuzoo.
For instance, before the announcement of the RTO, there was an article on ST selling Yuuzoo like mad. Then, the BBs pumped and dumped at above 10cts, trapping retailers. Then, they announced the IAH deal and there was a big advertisement on ST that day! What happened next? Pumped and dumped again.
Also the failed YuuZoo/Alanco deal is a warning too.
Got to be very careful with this stock. Buy only if they whacked it down jialat jialat like last time.
imho, what yuuzoo does is nothing new.
targetted social network (and in the process hope to sell a few things), its own payment gateway for settlement of those things and sale of mobile content
from here i see a facebook, paypal and apple copycat, only difference is that it all comes together on single e-commerce platform. Biggest question is where are the consumers? are there online reviews that describe a killer user experience that sets it apart from the biggest players? i see no coverage, no user reviews, nothing.
but who cares rite... since we are the PUNTING community and this is gonna be a cornered stock (with 12% in public hands post RTO?).. this should give way to lots of BB play... CHIONG DOWN to 5c and BUY UP!!! :)
curiousAngel ( Date: 14-May-2013 19:22) Posted:
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for ipo stock....the priced at be high but when trading it can go higher and higher..or vice versa...most important is investor belief and faith that the business will grow under good and capable management that can help drive investor value...
Since Yuuzoo just acquired IAH, its combined revenue and profit for FY13 will surely grow.
Vested long.
commando ( Date: 14-May-2013 10:43) Posted:
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Hi Terence,
I have done Internet marketing for over 15 years - but you are right that Alexa is not accurate. In any case, you can compare the Alexa rankings and you will find that for larger sites, the ranking is pretty correct and indicative of how successful a site is. Since YuuZoo claims over 40 million users, you would expect that the users are actually using the network right. And since they just recently switched to selling private social networks, most of these users would be from the old YuuZoo network. For other internet insiders I have talked to, they tell me the same thing.
And yes, I also know how Alexa works,
Cheers
terencee ( Date: 14-May-2013 11:17) Posted:
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