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Is Biosensors a good buy?

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AK_Francis
    23-Jun-2008 11:57  
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needs long term to see wealth leow.
 
 
allright
    23-Jun-2008 10:44  
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Thanks Bengster...the share PRICE is really so disappointing....but lets hope....
 
 
bengster68
    23-Jun-2008 10:19  
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I think no impact.
 

 
allright
    23-Jun-2008 10:07  
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Today is the expiry of the  Biosensors DB cw....Also on Friday, the company granted employee share options at .675...etc

So any idea if these are good or bad for the share price?
 
 
bengster68
    23-Jun-2008 00:48  
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My personal guess:

1. LEADERS trial shows Biomatrix has only half the cases of restenosis cases and MACE cases of Cypher DES (4% VS 8%). Zero cases of stent thrombosis for Biomatrix while Cypher has around 4%.

2. Q1FY09 Biomatrix sales at average of 5,000 units per month, Q2FY09 at 6,000 units per month, Q3FY09 at 8,000 units per month (post LEADERS results), Q4FY09 at 10,000 units per month.

3. Acquisition approval grant by Chinese authorities in Oct 2008 (as per expected date of acquisition completion mentioned by BIG during their Jan08 announcement).

4. NOBORI Japan approval in March 2009 (6 months after they submitted NOBORI CORE RCT with similar results as LEADERS trial).

5. CE Mark for Xtent at Aug 2008 (3 months after they submitted CUSTOMIII data), Devax CE Mark at end 2008.  

 



investor      ( Date: 22-Jun-2008 14:44) Posted:



To summarise the whole debate on the Biosensors valuation and the CATALYSTS needed to bring it up, it can be listed as 5 events that needs to happen and they are in ascending order of importance :

1)    The Leader's trial results which may be published in the ESC congress starting 30th Aug 2008 (parts of it, anyway), and the TCT 2008 starting on 12th Oct 2008

2)   The sale of the Bio-matrix, which I think can only be seen after 6- 12mths of sales, including the sale of the Nobori DES

3)   The full acquisition of  JWMS from Shandong Weigao. (Although I think even if unsuccessful, Biosensors still has 50 % share, which is still pretty significant.

4)   The granting of approval for Terumo to sell the Nobori DES in Japan (hopefully, by next calendar year 2009).

5)   The granting of CE mark approval for Xtent and Devax. In the case of Xtent, as the CE authorities have incorporated the latest Custom III data into their review, it LOOKS very similar to the situation when the authorities incorporated the Nobori data into the Biosensors CE mark application in Oct 2007, which then resulted in Biosensors getting the CE mark 3 MTHS later in Jan2008.

NOT a call to buy/sell.

 

 

 

 
 
bengster68
    22-Jun-2008 22:07  
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Confirm all 5 points are very important to BIG man. NEVO DES failure also a very big point to BIG as a side bet jackpot.
 

 
investor
    22-Jun-2008 14:44  
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To summarise the whole debate on the Biosensors valuation and the CATALYSTS needed to bring it up, it can be listed as 5 events that needs to happen and they are in ascending order of importance :

1)    The Leader's trial results which may be published in the ESC congress starting 30th Aug 2008 (parts of it, anyway), and the TCT 2008 starting on 12th Oct 2008

2)   The sale of the Bio-matrix, which I think can only be seen after 6- 12mths of sales, including the sale of the Nobori DES

3)   The full acquisition of  JWMS from Shandong Weigao. (Although I think even if unsuccessful, Biosensors still has 50 % share, which is still pretty significant.

4)   The granting of approval for Terumo to sell the Nobori DES in Japan (hopefully, by next calendar year 2009).

5)   The granting of CE mark approval for Xtent and Devax. In the case of Xtent, as the CE authorities have incorporated the latest Custom III data into their review, it LOOKS very similar to the situation when the authorities incorporated the Nobori data into the Biosensors CE mark application in Oct 2007, which then resulted in Biosensors getting the CE mark 3 MTHS later in Jan2008.

NOT a call to buy/sell.

 

 

 
 
 
bengster68
    21-Jun-2008 22:44  
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They got nothing better to say about their Taxus already but must still say it is good to brain wash the readers sub-consciously. This is strategy to reduce the impact of losing in RCTs against another DES. Then they will continue to say things like "Taxus has years of proven track record". Just like what JNJ said also about their Cypher DES in the face of newer competition. Track record for what??? Patient death rate???   Smiley

PensionAlterEgo      ( Date: 21-Jun-2008 22:11) Posted:



Thanks bengster for pointing out the earlier posting. I missed it...! (I usually find the same problem cutting and pasting it here as well.. but usually there is some character that appears in conflict .. usually a long dash. After that's removed, it should be fine)  

I was trying to investigate the trial results of Xience V... and its true, most of the news release concerning Xience V recently (during EuroPCR) try to hide some of the important endpoint readings...

Saw one news release from Boston Scientific as well.... Claimed that their Promus and Taxus continue to show strong performance. I thought this was a joke.. since the trial was done to prove that Xience V/Promus was better than Taxus....and BSC can still say their Taxus is good. Results of both stents were carried in the same article..   

 
 
bengster68
    21-Jun-2008 22:36  
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Anti-restenosis drugs are used to slow down the tissue regrowth due to vessel injury after stenting. The low late-loss and in-stent diameter at 6 months shows Xience's Everolimus drug is working better than Taxus Paclitaxel drug in slowing down excessive tissue regrowth at early stage of post-stenting operation. At 2 years, i believe most of the drugs would have been fully eluted and perhaps the tissue regrowth in long-run between both the DESs catches up and are of parity.  

However, the effect of Cardiac death, MI, TLR and MACE are still lower. This means the patient safety issue is better for Xience as compared to Taxus. These are more important overall effect relating to patient's safety and well-being so Xience still has a clear edge over Taxus on this very important "end-result" aspects. Could the rate of tissue regrowth be correlated to good "end-result" on patients safety and well-being? I know most of the "good class" BMS has huge late-loss of around 0.5mm to 0.6mm at 9 months and their TLR rate is also high. in a lot of cases, MACE rate of BMS and DES is around the same. Late-loss used to be the "gold standard measurement" for DES but lost some of its shine recently. But late-loss is still an important measurement though.    

 
 
 
PensionAlterEgo
    21-Jun-2008 22:11  
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Thanks bengster for pointing out the earlier posting. I missed it...! (I usually find the same problem cutting and pasting it here as well.. but usually there is some character that appears in conflict .. usually a long dash. After that's removed, it should be fine)  

I was trying to investigate the trial results of Xience V... and its true, most of the news release concerning Xience V recently (during EuroPCR) try to hide some of the important endpoint readings...

Saw one news release from Boston Scientific as well.... Claimed that their Promus and Taxus continue to show strong performance. I thought this was a joke.. since the trial was done to prove that Xience V/Promus was better than Taxus....and BSC can still say their Taxus is good. Results of both stents were carried in the same article..   
 

 
bengster68
    21-Jun-2008 21:41  
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Posted this 2 year parity report o Xience and Taxus on 15/05/2008. Duno why my computer cannot do the "cut and paste" function so i just posted the webpage link.

15/05/08 Posted:

Compare this report with what Abbott has presented at EuroPCR08 yesterday. Can you spot the ugly facts that Prof Greg Stone is hiding??? I can't cut and paste the article in this post so please join the free membership to view the full article. Very informative and makes you look at clinical trial reports in another angle. The way companies present clinical trials to media are full of diversion traps and they tend to sweep ugly facts underneath the carpet and highlight those good points they want people to read.

http://www.theheart.org/article/855437.do

 

JNJ can spend US$1.4B to buy this type of thrash. That Costar reservoir holes metal strut just will not work. How much more will JNJ pay for BIG? Besides the top class technology that JNJ needs, BIG has China JWMS (very important base to capture 3rd world market) and patents.

http://www.theheart.org/article/856381.do

This webpage is informative and you guys should do a free subscription as member.
 
 
AK_Francis
    21-Jun-2008 01:56  
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agreed, be patient is the word.
 
 
PensionAlterEgo
    20-Jun-2008 23:09  
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I think this very important article was left out previously. It shows that even the so called up and coming solid Xience V stent is really not that solid after all... perhaps bengster can comment more on the figures..

Two-Year SPIRIT-2 Data Show Parity Between Xience V and Taxus Stents


Steve Stiles
 


April 7, 2008 (Chicago, IL) - Question: When is one drug-eluting stent as effective as another? Answer: Two years after the procedure.

That's the case with respect to angiographic outcomes, at least in the SPIRIT-2 trial, where two-year results for the Xience-V everolimus-eluting stent (Abbott Vascular) and the paclitaxel-eluting Taxus stent (Boston Scientific) were reported here last week at the American College of Cardiology 57th Annual Scientific Session/i2Summit-SCAI Annual Meeting [1].

As covered previously by heartwire, the randomized SPIRIT-2 comparison of DES for the treatment of de novo coronary lesions showed a superior late-loss result for Xience-V at six-month angiography, the study's primary end point.

The latest angiographic results suggest that by two years, late loss in vessels treated with Xience-V had all but caught up to late loss in those treated with Taxus.

Other SPIRIT-2 results were consistent with such a "late catch-up" effect for Xience-V. Angiographic recurrence, as defined by percent-diameter stenosis, trended better at six months in the Xience-V group, but the difference at even that statistical level had dissipated by two years. Intravascular ultrasound data showed less lesion regrowth with Xience-V at six months, but not during long-term follow-up.Angiographic outcomes at six months and two years in SPIRIT-2*: Xience-V vs Taxus
End point Xience-V, 97 lesions Taxus, 35 lesions p
In-stent late loss      
6 months (mm) 0.17 0.33 0.004
2 years (mm) 0.33 0.34 0.603
In-stent %-diameter stenosis      
6 months (%) 16.00 18.3 0.062
2 years (%) 19.20 18.8 0.959
In-stent binary restenosis rate      
6 months (%) 1.00 2.90 0.461
2 years (%) 2.10 2.90 1.000
*Includes lesions for which there were data at both six months and two years.

 

Clinical outcomes may have followed the same pattern. What seemed to be an early trend favoring the everolimus-eluting stent for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) had become less distinct by two years; at neither point, however, did clinical-outcome differences reach statistical significance.

When reporting the two-year SPIRIT-2 results, Dr Patrick W Serruys (Thoraxcenter, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands) observed that the trial was designed for both noninferiority and superiority in the angiographic primary end point, but wasn't statistically powered to show significant clinical differences.

"It is fair to say that Xience-V remains numerically lower than Taxus in MACE and all its components at two-year follow-up, despite a modest increase in late loss and neointimal hyperplasia in the Xience-V arm over time," Serruys said.

SPIRIT-2 randomized 300 patients in a 3-to-1 ratio to receive either the Xience-V or the Taxus stent for de novo lesions <28 mm in length and with a target-vessel reference diameter of >2.5 and <4.25 mm; up to two such lesions could be treated per patient. The trial was conducted at 28 centers in Europe, New Zealand, and India.

There were originally 223 patients in the Xience-V group and 77 in the Taxus group. Importantly, the analyses of six-month and two-year data presented by Serruys included only lesions for which there were data at both six months and two years.

As the discussant assigned to comment on Serruys' presentation, Dr David J Cohen (Saint Luke's Mid America Heart Institute) lauded the SPIRIT-2 trial for having an excellent early and late angiographic follow-up rate, and said the focus on patients with available data at each time point was a strength of the analysis. It eliminates the introduction of "spurious results due to changing patient populations over time."Intravascular ultrasound measurements at six months and two years in SPIRIT-2*: Xience-V vs Taxus
End point Xience-V, 69 lesions Taxus, 32 lesions p
Neointimal hyperplasia      
6 months (mm3) 4.1 12.6 <0.001
2 years (mm3) 8.4 11.6 0.253
Stent obstruction volume      
6 months (%) 2.8 6.5 <0.001
2 years (%) 5.2 5.8 0.403
*Includes lesions for which there was data at both six months and two years.

 

Another strength, Cohen said, was that the trial's definition of in-stent thrombosis followed the Academic Research Consortium (ARC) criteria, recently introduced to standardize reporting of the complication.

In SPIRIT-2, two Xience-V patients developed very-late stent thrombosis and one Taxus patient developed stent thrombosis twice, once in the subacute period and once late after PCI, Serruys reported.

Cohen also observed that "although there was a moderate degree of very-late neointimal growth [associated with the Xience-V stent], it is reassuring--albeit somewhat confusing--that this did not lead to any apparent excess of late clinical events."

The data, Cohen said, show "angiographic and clinical dissociation," in that, despite the stent's late catch-up to Taxus with respect to neointimal hyperplasia, "if we look at the clinical outcomes and in particular the clinical outcomes that ought to be most closely associated with restenosis--that is, ischemia-driven target-lesion revascularization--there was no late catch-up; in fact, if anything, the curves pull slightly further apart."Clinical outcomes at six months and two years in SPIRIT-2: Xience-V vs Taxus
End point Xience-V, n=211 (%) Taxus, n=73 (%) p
Cardiac death      
6 months 0.0 1.3 0.257
2 years 0.5 1.4 0.449
MI      
6 months 0.9 3.9 0.110
2 years 2.8 5.5 0.286
TLR (ischemia driven)      
6 months 1.8 3.9 0.379
2 years 3.8 6.8 0.330
Total MACE      
6 months 2.7 6.5 0.158
2 years 6.6 11.0 0.308
TLR=target-lesion revascularization; MACE=major adverse cardiac events.

 

The Xience-V stent has been available in Europe and elsewhere in the world since 2006, and is thought to be close to approval by the FDA in the US, having received a nearly unanimous positive recommendation from the agency's premarket advisory panel in November 2007.

As reported then by heartwire, the panel's decision was based largely on the strength of the SPIRIT-2 six-month angiographic outcomes plus data from the much larger US-based SPIRIT-3 trial, which at the time was available out to one year. In the latter, a 1002-patient comparison of the same two stents, Xience-V bested Taxus by significant margins for the primary end point, in-segment late loss at eight months, and was noninferior for the secondary composite end point of cardiac death, MI, TLR, and target-vessel revascularization at nine months. Nine-month MACE rates were significantly lower for Xience-V. All differences persisted at 12 months, heartwire reported from the TCT 2007 meeting a month before the FDA panel met.

At that time, SPIRIT-3's principal investigator, Dr Gregg W Stone (Columbia University, New York, NY), reported that according to ARC criteria, there were seven instances of stent thrombosis in the Xience-V group and two in the Taxus group by 12 months.

Enrollment to the SPIRIT-4 trial is well underway, with a target exceeding 3000 patients. Launched in August 2007, the study is expected to yield final data for its primary end point--ischemia-driven MACE--in August 2009 [2].

Taxus stent's manufacturer, Boston Scientific, plans to market a version of Xience-V called Promos, which would be automatically cleared in the event of Xience-V's FDA approval. Promos will be manufactured by Abbott, the company notes, along with Xience-V, and will be supplied to Boston Scientific "as part of a distribution agreement between the two companies." The unusual market situation stems from the 2006 sale of Guidant's vascular- and endovascular-therapy business to Abbott at the same time the rest of the company was swallowed up by Boston Scientific.
 
 
 
louis_leecs
    20-Jun-2008 22:27  
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tis baby having a temperary selling,,,,,,,,,,,,patince wait for buying signal,,,,,,,
 
 
cashiertan
    20-Jun-2008 22:08  
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out of this counter with just 2c profit. realy disappointing so far. the least i made form this counter.. now i consider it back to hibernation. till it break 69c..
 

 
bengster68
    19-Jun-2008 23:35  
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See carefully the 2 different stent design of Costar and NEVO on page 8 of the web-link provided by P-A-E. If we look closely at the 2 pictures comparing the old metal strut design of Costar and the new NEVO DES, the link between the metal strut has no more reservoir holes!!!
 
 
bengster68
    19-Jun-2008 21:36  
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2 years ago at BIG's AGM (way before Costar's spectacular clinical trial failures), i had an opportunity to chat with a world class DES expert. I asked him about Conor's Costar DES and its hype and his immediate reply was it is bound to fail. It shocked me at first but his reasons are simple: 

1. The link in between the metal strut will crack.

2. Optimal drug elution timing and drug effect targeting at the injured wall after stenting cannot be achieved with reservoir holes.

If we look closely at the picture comparing the old metal strut design of Costar and the new NEVO DES, the link between the metal strut has no more reservoir holes! Why??? Because JNJ most likely discovered after they bought CONOR that the "link with reservoir holes" can cause the stent strut linkage point to crack. So the new design take off that "link with reservoir holes".

Next, if earlier clinical trials under COSTAR II (paclitaxel drug only), GENESIS I (paclitaxel and primecolimus drug) and GENESIS II (primecolimus drug only) is getting from bad to worse to totally hopeless, that means the function of optimal drug elution timing and drug effect targetting at injured vessel wall is not achieved. DESW experts said that GENESIS trials are even worse than BMS in terms of restenosis rate and looks like the anti-restenosis drug is causing restenosis effect itself! So the new NEVO DES will still not work. The problem lies in the metal strut design itself, not the drugs. So what if JNJ put in Sirolimus, NEVO will still not work. Even if they put in BiolumsA9 drug, NEVO will still not work.

The fact that COSTAR II and GENESIS I and GENESIS II failed proved that the DES expert was right. With such track record, even if NEVO DES bearly manage to scrap thru their clinicla trial, which sensible doctor on earth will dare to try this DES knowing that it was developed from a metal strut platform that had a consistent track record of failures? How to sell this type of DES? No wonder many of Cordis' sales force has left the company. I think they already sensed the hopelessness in Cordis' future with NEVO.      



PensionAlterEgo      ( Date: 14-Jun-2008 14:30) Posted:



interesting read about conor's past..

Although Cordis took some beating with 7 key people... it appears that the people in Conor's are still intact. This Frank guy is still the CEO. Roger Campbell, the CTO is still championing the Nevo Stent. So JNJ must be still betting on Costar in the near future..

Too bad there is not much data on this RES-ELUTION trial or data. Would be interesting to see how it performs..



Actually from the presentation slides at http://www.europcronline.com/diapos/EuroPCR2008/4568-20080515_1254_Room01_Rogers_Campbell/Rogers-20080515-1254-Room01.pdf

slide 20, I am not so convinced (although I am not a biomed person) by their reservoir design and choice of alternating the drug realease in two opposite directions. I shall not say why..(in case my comments gets adopted Smiley ). Reading BIG's original drug coating design in its patent and how it has evolved to its current design, I see the approach by BioMatrix looks much better.   

 
 
bengster68
    19-Jun-2008 14:47  
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JNJ is lucky to walk off from their Guidant takeover. But JNJ is stupid to buy Conor but with JNJ's US$200B market cap size, US$1.4B write-off is not a very big issue to them. The valuable part about Guidant is their Xience DES which BSX resold it to ABT for US$4.1B cash. Guidant's defibrillators kena a lot of product recalls and branding is damaged. BSX's bonds are technically of junk bond status. I think ABT is holding about US$1B of BSX's junk bond as a packaged deal in helping BSX to finance their Guidant takeover. BSX's Taxus DES is one of the worst DES but still the top selling brand one means BSX has one of the best DES sales team (probably spend a lot of expenditure on entertaining clients/doctors). Many people in the DES industry also acknowledge BSX has the best DES sales team around. Maybe BSX should buy up both BIG and St Judes Medical instead of Guidant. The end effect will be much more spectacular. Market cap of BSX (after taking over Guidant) is now at US$20B. Thats even lower than the price of US$27B takeover price of Guidant. Another costly MNC takeover mistake. 
 
 
PensionAlterEgo
    19-Jun-2008 13:35  
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The 24/7 Wall St. Ten Worst Managed Companies In America (JAVA)(SHLD)(BSX)(SBUX)(S)(CC)(MOT)(AMD)(AIG)(PFE)

With the trading year almost half over and results from the first quarter out, 24/7 Wall St. has created the latest installment of its Ten Worst Managed Companies In America list.

This analysis is based on: 1) one year and five year stock performance relative to the major indexes and other companies in the industry, 2) the company's position in its industry both now and over the last five years, 3) whether management made identifiable and critical decisions which hurt the company, 4) a change in the company's relative market strength compared to its competition, and 5) whether the company could have identified mistakes and changed course quickly enough to avoid a catastrophe.

at no. 3...

3. Boston Scientific (BSX) The medical device maker has made a series of mistakes. None was worse than buying Guidant for $27 billion in 2006. The newly acquired company had problems with recalls of its products early on. At one point not longer after the acquisition, BSX told Fortune that Guidant was not making any money. In early 2007, BSX posted lower profits due to charges from the takeover. What has Boston Scientific done to remedy the problems? Nothing. The trouble has been compounded by a fall-off in the company's drug-coated stent business as medical research has indicated that the product is not as effective as once believed. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Abbott (ABT), and Medtronic (MDT) have entered the market. BSX is left with the option of trying to pay down its $7.3 billion in long-term debt, which could be impossible, or selling the company off in pieces. The BSX board recently renewed the CEO's contract making that decision one of the most mysterious by a company this year. Shares were at $40 before all the M&A mistakes. Now they sit at $14.

 
 
bengster68
    19-Jun-2008 00:46  
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Some interesting posts.....

***JustForFun: Dun expect too much for the next 2-3 qtrs cos Biomatrix won't be available in the major mkts in asia. Contributions for the next few qtrs mainly from europe & latin america.

Estimate timeline (obtained from CE briefing in Jan08) as followed:
Japan - terumo still waiting for approval
China - 12-18 months
Korea - 12-18 months
India - 3-6 months
Australia - 12-18 months

Note: China, korea, india and australia together make up 90% of the mkt in asia pacific region (ex japan).

vested




***Bengster: You are quite sharp! China will be a bigger market than Japan (US$600m a year) market by end 2009. However, JWMS is already a top 3 DES player with their EXCEL DES in China and will become the number 2 player by end 2008. I expect EXCEL DES is capture much more market share after their recent release of very positive 2,000 patient CREATE trial. EXCEL DES uses BIG's S-stent BMS metal strut, PLA biodegradable polymer but Sirolimus drug. Thats also very powerful DES technology combination. The only differnce between EXCEL and Biomatrix is Sirolimus VS BiolimusA9 drug (of course BiolimusA9 is better lah). My personal estimation for Japan FDA approval is early 2009. I think NOBORI will corner 50% of Japan market within 2 years after approval (but those sales belongs to Terumo but BIG will enjoy a heavy royalty cut out from Terumo's Japan market sales). My personal Biomatrix's China FDA approval is somewhere end 2008 or early 2009.

The estimated commercial patient implant of Biomatrix according to some people in the DES industry is approx 5,000 units per month now. Direct sales selling price should be around US$2,000 per DES. Average selling price to medical device distributor is around US$1,200 per DES. Assume half quantities sold by distributors, half sold by BIG's own direct sales force, mean selling price per Biomatrix could be around US$1,600. Multiply that by 5,000 units times 3 months equals US$1,600 x 15,000units = US$24m sales biomatrix in Q1FY2009. Above figures are my personal estimates. I expect post-LEADERS results sales figure of Biomatrix to be 10,000 units per month. BIG's marketing strategy revolves around clinical trial evidence. Passing clinical trial results with flying colours has always been the forte of Biomatrix DES.




***JustForFun:  Think ur expectations are a bit too optimistic.
50% in japan mkt in 2 years !!!! that's alot. Bear in mind that terumo have to compete against J&J, Boston, Abbott and Medtronic

As for china's approval for biomatrix, i believe will happen in FY2010. i think biosensors haven't started the clinical trial yet. See Analyst Briefing on 26May08 pg 15.




***Bengster: NOBORI capturing 25% japan market in first year and 50% in second year is in line with industry expectation and not overly optimistic projections. Japan and USA market is quite "technology fickle" and willing to try out new approved products. I remember after Taxus DES was launched in Japan, it soon became the market leader over-taking Cypher. However, in recent couple of years, many RCTs were done against Taxus and proved that Taxus is actually a low grade DES. The Japanese market made a swift switched back to using Cypher and Cypher is now the market leader in Japan. The Jap doctors also look carefully at RCTs results and clinical trial datas. After LEADERS trial and NOBORI JAPAN RCTs (to be announced on Oct 2008), the world will know that NOBORI (a.k.a Biomatrix) is superior to Cypher. I expect NOBORI's launch in Japan to be in H1 of 2009 and it will be the most awaited DES launch and filled with a lot of enthusiasm because of NOBORI will be the most advanced DES (first biodegradable polymer DES using top class drug BiolimusA9), best clinically proven DES and its also a Japanese brand. Also, BIG gave Terumo exclusive Japan market because BIG knew Terumo is the largest Japanese medical device player and have the ability to corner their own homeground DES market with NOBORI. Terumo's branding, distribution network and connections with the Japanese hospitals and doctors is second to none in their own Japan homeground. Japanese have a weird habit of strongly supporting their own country's brands and products. Plus, NOBORI is in fact the best performing DES in all kinds of RCT clinical trials against rival DESs. So, the market leader potential of NOBORI in Japan is within industry expectations. BIG will not give out exclusive market territory unless they are very confident Terumo can corner the Japanese market.

If we compare with Endeavor DES, Endeavor captured 20% USA market share in just 3 months after launch!!! Endeavor's clinical results are just average with very huge late-loss. Some of their end-points in RCTs cannot be met and 9 month figures like TLR and stent thrombosis are even higher than Taxus. Xience is a much better performing DES in clinical trials and many analysts expect Xience to capture at least 30% USA market share within 6 months of their launch and at least 50% of USA market share by end 2009.

China FDA does not require BIG to conduct a brand new set of clinical trials for China market approval but just have to go thru certain protocols and paperwork. I think BIG could be using CE Mark as a base reference for submission. There are many RCTs for Biomatrix including cross referencing Terumo's set of clinical trials that can be submitted for China's approval. By Oct 2008, LEADERS and NOBORI Japan RCTs can be used as a reference as well and these are large scale clinical trials. On Jan 2008 (CE briefing), BIG said they expect to get China approval in 12 to 18 months. My personal estimation of Biomatrix approval in end 2008 or early 2009 is in-line with what BIG projected. Also, i cannot see the Analyst Briefing on 26May08 pg 15 that you mentioned as 26/06/08 about financial reports and in page 15 there is no mention on China approval.
 
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