Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

If you do monitor the time/sale and market depth, it is very obvious shorties playing punk. Stock market is a place for investments. Some use it as a place to punt. The basic rule is never showhand with stock market. People become bankrupt because they play showhand and market proved them wrong. The market can stay irrational for a longer time than you think. If you cannot understand what is 90% and have an idea that 90% is bao chiak like 100%, don't call people a moron. Im still sticking to my 90% chance of M&A.

For market cap, it is obvious MS is bigger. What im saying is Apple is a much better choice to put your money 5 years ago. Apple was down then but has a lot of good and new market ideas. If im not wrong, i think Apple share price is a 20 times bagger over these few years. Apple was down before does not mean down forever. MS was once the most valuable company but is MS still retaining this spot? BIG may be the next Apple.

 

okay, maybe i am wrong to reason with somone who dun know simple percentage. U know 4D has 10k numbers right ? Apple operating system is much better than Microsoft. But right now the majority of users are Windoes. Is this clearer ? Hmm U thinkApple INC is more successful than microsoft ? u better go calculate the market capitalization of MS then talk.. obviously a moron.

Anyway, my objection is simple. Dont quote 90% chance when you not sure. Dont say people short BIG when you don't know. Thats all.

bengster68      ( Date: 07-Jul-2008 17:12) Posted: 90% is like saying today's 4D number will be from 0000 to 9000! With this type of odds, who will not bet their house ? Obviously deep inside, you do not believe in what you say else you would have done so already. Obviously you are really talking rubbish!   Apple is better than Microsoft but majority use Microsoft. Better doesn't always win. Sometimes is who conqure the market 1st. If rubbish can talk, these could be the exact words. After Steve Jobs came back into Apple, Apple has been a multi-bagger. Microsoft has been a laggard stock recent years. If i were to choose between Apple and Microsoft 5 years ago, Apple is clearly my stock pick. You talk like a stock fool who always look at the past and fail to look forward.

 

power, discount the proposed new issue shares during coming AGM, now BIG no of shares are 964.697m. oops even 0.05% already fantastic leow. moreover at the age of 40, if AK guess correctly, he he.  

btw, any lobang on this burger, pse share oh. Cheers for more good yrs.

 

bengster..owning 0.5% of BIG is quite alot of money!

Just wondering, at this current price and you are still collecting to avg down your losses? You must be damn rich to try your luck in this market situation...

Anyway I enjoy reading your post...good luck!

bengster68      ( Date: 07-Jul-2008 16:00) Posted: I don't have to sell house. Im already own more than 0.5% of BIG and still collecting. This stock will be a shocking winner by end 2008. I have already given my analysis on why i believe there is 90% chance of M&A. From the trading pattern the past couple of weeks it doesn't take a genius to conclude there are shortists disturbing this stock, trying to force margin calls so they can cover back cheap when brokerage force sell. When Alan Greenspan says USA got a third chance and 50% chance going into recession, it is his personal call of percentage chance of an event happening thru his own personal judgement. 90% chance of M&A is my personal judegement. Even if BIG remains independent (10% chance), this stock should be be to double by end 2008 when change in fundamentals become more apparent via profit figures reported in financial reports to the less insightful investors. There should be a few multi-million licensing deals waiting for BIG now but BIG will not be so kanchiong to sign them because it will effect takeover valuation. Any one such licensing deal is approx US$100m cash upfront. I know of at least one desperate MNC urgently wanting to sign such deals with BIG and it doesn't take a genius to know who is this MNC.

 

ok, lets querry the chairman, Mr Yoh and CEO/MD Mr Robert during the coming AGM for more clearer future.

 

i am preparing for cost averaging at 0.49.. drop ba !

 

cool it, people.

let the market prove reality.

in the end, everything else is just that: talk. so if you know you're right, don't bother justifying: the market will prove it. o/w this is an open forum--everyone's free to share information, but that should not degenerate into needless name-calling.  

just to clarify: Buffett didn't base his numbers on pure speculation/opinion. No Graham investor does that. He based the 50% rating on decreasing trade prices, decreasing industry profit margins, increasing exposure (of funds), and the devaluation of the USD and dollar-backed assets. That prediction was in Mar '08. In an interview given to CNBC then.

Looking at the DJIA today, we can't say that he was wrong. Markets are forward looking, they price forwards.

 

90% is like saying today's 4D number will be from 0000 to 9000! With this type of odds, who will not bet their house ? Obviously deep inside, you do not believe in what you say else you would have done so already.

Obviously you are really talking rubbish!  

Apple is better than Microsoft but majority use Microsoft. Better doesn't always win. Sometimes is who conqure the market 1st.

If rubbish can talk, these could be the exact words. After Steve Jobs came back into Apple, Apple has been a multi-bagger. Microsoft has been a laggard stock recent years. If i were to choose between Apple and Microsoft 5 years ago, Apple is clearly my stock pick. You talk like a stock fool who always look at the past and fail to look forward.

 

When i see very good opportunity, i buy big. I don't have to put my life and house on the line. Just like guys don't have to jump down a building to prove his love for a girl. Did Greenspan provide detailed numerical analysis on his 1/3 chance of USA resession when he said it? Did Greenspan provide detailed numerical analysis when he said there is 50% chance of recession? 3 months ago Warren Buffet said USA economy is "already in recession" but later on, the official Q1 figures come out later and proved that USA economy was still crawling at 0.6% growth. Did Buffet provide his detailed numerical analysis on why he said USA is already in recession? It is Greenspan's and Buffet's personal opinion. They may be right, they may be wrong.

90% is my personal estimation on M&A chances for this stock. Nothing to do with insider info. I don't need insider info to know that Pan-United Marine, Labroy Marine and SembLog will have high chance of M&A. I got these share when they were taken over (but at very low takeover premiums). I feel M&A premium for BIG will be shockingly high because not many investors understand the real takeover value of BIG's top class clinical results, Proprietary IPs and patents. These are exactly what the medical device MNCs are looking at. China JWMS subsidiary making US$30m this year, maybe US$50m next year and Biomatrix's CE Mark are just small bonuses to the buyer. The real assets are BIG's intangibles. These are world class DES assets and most industry experts will rank them number one in the world right now with no newer or better ones in sight.     

 

Alan greenspan , Warrant Buffet, they have teams of people collecting data and more importantly contacts to help them make an informed decision. Moreover, they give more realistic figures like 50% and not 90%.

 There are only 2 scenarios


1) If you have genuine contacts, then posting specific info here = leaking insider info. But if you have insider info, then you wont be posting, just waiting to collect $. I think even the CEO also not sure there is a 90% chance of take over.


2) If you don't have genuine contacts, then what right do you have to make statements like 90%?


90% is like saying today's 4D number will be from 0000 to 9000!


With this type of odds, who will not bet their house ? Obviously deep inside, you do not believe in what you say else you would have done so already.


Apple is better than Microsoft but majority use Microsoft. Better doesn't always win. Sometimes is who conqure the market 1st.

 

As for JNJ, 2 years ago i consulted a DES grandmaster for his expert opinion on COSTAR DES. He gave me the reasons and i have already posted them. I have already said why JNJ changed NEVO's metal strut link points. The new NEVO will also flop. You can sell your BIG shares now or short this stock. But when LEADERS results are out, we will see who has the last laugh. Passing RCTs with flying colours has always been the forte of Biomatrix. BIG already has a 2nd generation Biomatrix called Bio-Flex (more flexible and better ease of use) now under already CE review and should be approved later this year. Next coming up will be Biomatrix-Freedom (totally polymerless).    

 

yah, its dirt cheap now, didn't acc as holding quite amount leow. coming AGM on 22 at Marina Mandarin this mth may hear some good news loh. may join in the fun, if nothing caught me up that morning.

Cheers

 

I don't have to sell house. Im already own more than 0.5% of BIG and still collecting. This stock will be a shocking winner by end 2008. I have already given my analysis on why i believe there is 90% chance of M&A. From the trading pattern the past couple of weeks it doesn't take a genius to conclude there are shortists disturbing this stock, trying to force margin calls so they can cover back cheap when brokerage force sell. When Alan Greenspan says USA got a third chance and 50% chance going into recession, it is his personal call of percentage chance of an event happening thru his own personal judgement. 90% chance of M&A is my personal judegement. Even if BIG remains independent (10% chance), this stock should be be to double by end 2008 when change in fundamentals become more apparent via profit figures reported in financial reports to the less insightful investors. There should be a few multi-million licensing deals waiting for BIG now but BIG will not be so kanchiong to sign them because it will effect takeover valuation. Any one such licensing deal is approx US$100m cash upfront. I know of at least one desperate MNC urgently wanting to sign such deals with BIG and it doesn't take a genius to know who is this MNC.

 

Yes, They are happy.. They have stop for the day already.. From the sudden surge of about 4000 lots, I reckon they have completed collecting for today. hmm.. I also collecting bit by bit...

jackjames      ( Date: 07-Jul-2008 15:27) Posted: BB must be happy collecting today... collect at such a dirt cheap price...

 

BB must be happy collecting today... collect at such a dirt cheap price...

 

Do you have access to the SGX share transaction database ?

No? Then how do you know people are shorting BIG?

Maybe people are just selling ?

Pls be responsible..

bengster68      ( Date: 02-Jul-2008 17:47) Posted: Market sentiment is very bad. Local house traders shorting second liner stocks today. Shorting with no volume means they waiting to cover back soon. Those retail clients that cannot make margin call cash top up will be force sold. When brokerage house force sell, they will time it and do it at the same time. This is when their own in-house traders will cover back cheap. Maybe kena second round again as long as market sentiment remain bad. Dirty brokerage business tricks. If later this month show Q2 results are ok, the bear will retreat (provided oil don't shoot higher). Fundamentals of BIG does not change overnight just because 0.5% of their issued shares traded lower this week.

 

So Bengster68, these are not facts, you have to admit, they are only hopes. Saying 90% chance BIG will be taken over is very irresponsible. Where did you get your figures from? 

Brother, some people willing to bet their life savings on 50% chance. NOW You saying 90% BIG will take over?  Maybe some poor fool now is buying

Think about it.. But if you are so sure, I suggest you sell your house now, and buy BIG. Afterall, now its so cheap.

bengster68      ( Date: 30-Jun-2008 20:40) Posted: I believe it should come by end 2008 and a lot of smart money will come in and mop up BIG's shares after seeing good LEADERS results. I think got 90% chance BIG will kena takeover. There could be some lucrative licensing deals already waiting for BIG out there but BIG is delaying them because more licensing deals means lesser takeover valuation. Another key event to look out for is Biomatrix's FDA IDE. BIG cannot afford to delay licensing out Biomatrix USA territory after they get their IDE (plus good LEADERS results). I think internally JNJ already knew NEVO stent program will not work and JNJ don't really have to wait for NEVO results to decide whether to make a bid on BIG or not. If they do wait until early next year then make an offer, JNJ is effectively telling the world that their NEVO DES trial results flopped and they have no other choice but to buy up another stent developer. Good LEADERS results will formally kick-start BIG's M&A fever. Takeover premium will be very freaking high for this stock. Im riding this roller-coaster all the way to the eventual jackpot.   exodus      ( Date: 30-Jun-2008 20:13) Posted: $3. $3. $3. $3. $3. $3. $3. $3. $3. $3.

 

Still got to add some critical care product sales figure for Q1. I wonder if BIG's "Tiger Rapid Exchange" Catheter system will sell well along with Biomatrix DES. Sell "hot cakes" must try to sell your own in-house kaya blend also. One salesman but can sell 2 products at one go. Delivery system is a lower margin product but can still add up quite substantially. Don't forget to add 50% JWMS contribution which should be around US$3m for Q1.

I heard Xience has got some cases of stent engineering problems whereby the drug coating split away from their "flora non-adhesive" durable polymer. Can be potentially a dangerous stent engineering problem. When all the rest of the DESs like Endeavor, Taxus and Cypher are not really a performer, Xience will look like the clear winner. I still waiting for the day when all the DES experts are debating on which is the real DES leader: Biomatrix VS Xience. I seriously think Xience don't stand much chance when pitted against Biomatrix in RCT. When the first/ most vocal / most widely respected DES critic Dr Renu also endorse Biomatrix DES, we already have the answer that Biomatrix is indeed the safest and real number one performing DES. She even used the word "thrash" for some other DESs.  

 

Thanks investor for the video link. I think the site should be CRTonline.org.

Excellent video. To me, I am very glad that this late "catch up" problem has not gone unnoticed. I hope the rest of the doctors are as careful about this late catch up issues. But I guess, the competitors like JNJ and MDT will make an issue about this...so that it is enough to gain attention of the medical fraternity.  

Prof. Grube said that this late catch up is serious enough and will certainly be looked into and results of it will be discussed in TCT 2008. The issues is certainly serious enough to keep him away from using Xience for now. He also commented that the Taxus controller (for comparison) used during trial does not have the late catch up so the results (late catch up in Xience) he thinks is for real.

He had only glowing remarks to say about devax and xtent. Kept using words "like the results are stunning" ,"results are so promising and so convincing".  

 

I am very positive about biomatrix sales in Q1 2009. My projection is biomatrix sales alone is 20-25m. Another 5m for bare stent mostly from japan mkt and 4m for 25% Nobori out of 15m sales and 2m reveue recognition for 40m. Total my projection is 31-36m for Q1. Management forecast of 65-75m include licencee royalty renvenue is far too low. Even without JWMS, Biosensor alone can achieve at least 120m for FY2009. This is my estimation to my best knowledge so far. I have not taken account if leaders result announce in early sept. sales may double up to 10000/per mth??? Not a call  to buy.