SPC   

SPC

oooh. as least there are some good things that came out from this experience.

selfless great advice and concern among the fellow ShareJunction forumers. thanks a lot pple

and at least i still dun need to resort to eating bread and drinking plain water to survive. (cos i dun have any house, car or gf to maintain. haha)

 

i am holding the warrants only, that doesn't realli point to long term.

if i lose all my money in the market, then i'll just take it as if i didn't save a single cent for 3 years. i know of so pple who dun save any money at all. anyway, like i mentioned in earlier posts, i will wait for the latest financial reports to be out b4 deciding on my course of action.

 

Hi giantlow,

Sorry about your predicament... unfortunately things like this happen all the time.

The thing now is for you to figure out if you want to ride this out or bail out. And this depends on your trading philosophy. Are you long term or short term?

 

it is truly heartwarming to see someone who is not vested in the stock spend so much time and effort to explain to us simpletons. 

too bad i didn't think of so many factors when i bought the warrant. i just wanted to make $$$.

 

[  "..if you follow its trend, wld expect SPC to drop to ard 4.25 by today."  ]  


              -By Elfinchilde earlier today in this thread.


Now, she made that posting in the morning. Then the stock really dropped a unusual drastic 16c to 4.24 and closed at 4.26.


This is rather eery, man ... Spooky, huh?  


Wow! Elfin... I'm beginning to believe you're truly one of the enlightened ones in our midst in the flesh. 


Welcome to the Fellowship!
 

 

Good to note the point that SPC is fundamentally sound....:).

 

Shplayer?You hit it on the head already! It?s a point I?ve been trying to make all along: markets do not truly move on real fundamentals (of which SPC is solid, judging from its previous annual reports), they move on sentiment.

 

Caveat: This is going to be another long post. Only for those interested in a method of market analysis which might seem, in plain terms, damn weird to some. If so, feel free to treat this as hocus-pocus. J

 

For the uninitiated, I use TA, FA and world trends (which is just another term really for psychology). SPC: don?t bother with FA, it?s fundamentally sound but it never quite moves in accordance with it. TA will not work very well too since the sentiments on it can change in a single day because of political trouble and too many factors. So I?m going to dissect SPC here by analytical psychology:

 

 

1) REAL factors affecting the actual company SPC: http://www.spc.com.sg/our_activities/our_activities (see the diagram)

i)exploration and production?>discovery of new oil implies share price up. Crude prices affect profit proportionately.

ii)Products: crude pdts and oil; gas pipelines -> crude prices fall, SPC drop. Attack on or disruption of pipelinesàdrop in price.

iii)Bunker oil and fuelà warehouse, freight and shipping charges affect SPC.

iv)Motor gasoline and dieselàprice cuts in petrol stations, SPC drop.

v)Aviationàtourism, environmental diseases (SARS etc), airlines affect SPC.

à this is what I meant by too many factors, which will end up negating each other/cause uncertainty.

 

2) Psychological factors affecting SPC share price:

the key things bulk of investors remember about this counter, in order of importance: i)crude prices,

ii)aviation industry and petrol stations,

iii)freight charges.

 

Meaning: in a stable market with no scares, SPC will track the price of crude oil.

When SPC will deviate: when there is a major shakeup of one of the other factors, such that investors remember SPC is thus linked.

Therefore, when SARS struck (2003), airlines affected, => aviation fuel down, SPC down.

Petrol stations offer discounts=> motor gasoline margins down, SPC down.

Freight charges up => SPC down.

 

Final note: In the market, sometimes for psychological tracking, you can use other counters as your tracking indicators. It?s a game of chess. Think Genting leading Ho Bee last week. So when there?s an airline/tourism shakeup, the counter controlling sentiment on SPC is SIA. When shipping is in the doldrums/up, the counters nominally controlling SPC will be freight cos like NOL.

 

But overall, SPC will appear to track oil, as well as the final, volatile constant to which oil is linked: global geopolitics. Think Iran and Nigeria.

 

There?s heck of a lot more; but I think this is info overload already. Hope it helps shed some light. J

 

Kepcorp also in the red, so no worries then.

 

Admist all the gloom about this counter, well let's see its earnings for last year then.............. 

 

elf,

From your posts, you seem very knowledgeable about stocks.

Perhaps you can explain to me something about SPC that has always comfounded me.

SPC is derives the bulk (I estimate about 90%) of their revenues and profit from refining crude oil into products.



Hence, I would have thought that its financial performance should be closely tied in to worldwide refining capacity supply and demand. However, its stock price seems to correlate with crude oil price fluctuations.



Have I been getting it wrong all thi time? Otherwise, what is the cause of this discrepancy?



Please refer to my post of 17 Oct 2006 on this thread.



Thanks

 

shplayer...the connection is lg1167!

:P

 

Genting and SPC?????



What's the connection????

 

elf,

Thank you....will listen to your advice.

mr just investor.

 

Wonder why SPC stop their buyback,I'm puzzled!! Hey management,you heard us.It would be good if they continue as this would mop up the weak holders and the manipulators,it is always darkest before the dawn,perhaps next weak the weather will come to our rescue.Heard on weather report that by late next week,the cold front will move into US.Perhaps then the weather will be in our favour. 

 

ack, lg1167, genting, i have only one advice: DON'T go in. It's crazily bought/sold and manipulated. but again, it's risk/reward and what you're comfortable with, and haha like i said, this elf's a coward, she only trades in shallow waters.

there are better counters lah. look at allgreen. nicely making its comeback.  

 

SPC buyback should come and save us now...

 

Hi Gianlow,you're not alone..look at the vols traded at the level between .065 to .7,there are so many small players like us,may be there is no put warrant for SPC,so it could be the warrant maker just want to pull down the mother share and they will laugh all the way to the bank by March....the maker know what we think...

 

Hi elf,

Thanks for your advice. probably will follow it next week and hope SPC will not move too south..... how abt Genting...to move in at which price....pp advise me that the best time to go in is around next week  (Wed)! What is you comment! Cheers.

 

the charts and comments from others should only guide and NOT replace your trading strategy

maybe we can both be successful using different strategies.

 

Hi Giantlow...



The stock market is not about loyalty and perseverance and loving and kissing and such... all that belong to the human world...



When you deal with the market beast, you have to be more than human. You need to make friends with the market beast which is a sensitive but eccentric and wildly temperamental monster with all sorts of 'fetishes' and way-out whims you won't expect in a lifetime. The only way to deal with this kind of a monster is by way of TA - your ultimate 'taming whip'.



You can find some useful information here: 

   TA & Stock Market Education .



For warrants, it is better to chart the mother stock since it directly influence the warrant prices, albeit with occassional minor anomalous abberations.