
Valuation and recommendation
CMA a game changer; upgrade from Neutral to Outperform.
CMA has positively altered the prospects of the group, in our view. Its retail properties
and fund and REIT management business are attractive assets and we believe the
move to list CMA will lead to a re-rating for the group. The possibility of a revival in
CapLand’s capital recycling is also greatly enhanced as the group capital structure
should improve after the CMA IPO.
We keep our FY09-11 core EPS estimates unchanged but raise our end-CY10 RNAV
estimate from S$3.25 to S$4.35 on higher capital-value assumptions for CapLand’s
China retail assets and higher valuation multiples for its fund and REIT management
business. We now peg our target price at a more aggressive premium of 30% to RNAV
in anticipation of the CMA listing. Our target price accordingly rises from S$3.90 to
S$5.65, implying 2x P/BV and reflecting mid-cycle valuations in previous recoveries.
We note that CapLand’s P/BV similarly expanded in the last cycle as its capitalrecycling
strategy took off. Upgrade from Neutral to Outperform.
http://www.remisiers.org/research//Capitaland-271009[1].pdf
CapitaLand profit falls 33% to $281.3m |
Written by Bloomberg |
Tuesday, 27 October 2009 08:27 |
CapitaLand Ltd., Southeast Asia’s biggest developer, said third-quarter profit fell 33%, the smallest decline in a year amid a rebound in the property markets of Singapore, China and Vietnam. Net income for the three months ended Sept. 30 declined to $281.3 million, or 6.5 cents a share, from $419.4 million, or 11.9 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement to Singapore’s stock exchange today. Revenue rose 75% to $1.05 billion. A recovery in the global economy has helped CapitaLand return to profit from its first loss in 5 1/2 years in the second quarter. Singapore’s gross domestic product grew 0.8% last quarter from a year earlier, the first expansion in more than a year, while China said its economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year during the period. “The group has performed significantly better this quarter than the previous two quarters,” Chief Executive Officer Liew Mun Leong said in the statement. “We have had healthy sales volumes in Singapore, China and Vietnam.” Earnings last year included a one-time gain of $432.7 million from the sale of a stake in properties in China and Singapore. The company also booked goodwill gain a year earlier from increasing its stake in Australian unit Australand Property Group. CapitaLand has risen 72% in Singapore trading this year, outpacing a 54 increase in the benchmark Straits Times Index. The results were released before the start of trading in Singapore. |
CapitaLand achieves 3Q2009 net profit of S$281.3 million
Increase of 127% quarter-on-quarter
Singapore, 27 October 2009 – CapitaLand posted profit after tax and minority interests (PATMI) of S$281.3 million for 3Q2009 compared to S$419.4 million in 3Q2008 which
benefitted from substantial divestment gains.
Operationally, the Group has performed significantly better this quarter than the previous two
quarters. Excluding the impact of revaluations and impairments taken in 2Q2009, PATMI
grew 127% in 3Q2009 to reach S$281.3 million, compared to S$124.0 million in 2Q2009.
Revenue for 3Q2009 was up 75% on the back of strong revenue recognition for residential
projects in Singapore, China and Vietnam. The Group recorded revenue of over S$1 billion
this quarter, bringing revenue for the nine months ended 30 September 2009 to S$2.1 billion.
Group Earnings before Interest and Tax (EBIT) for 3Q2009 came in at S$450.6 million,
largely driven by strong profit recognition from residential projects and gains from the
divestment of Link REIT units. EBIT in 3Q2008 was greater due to gains of S$441.6 million
arising from major transactions, namely the divestment of Capital Tower Beijing in China and
One George Street in Singapore, as well as the injection of Raffles City properties in China
into the Raffles City China Fund.
Properties are leading the market in this round...

_________________________________________
Multiple Timeframe Technical Analysis
It is a spill over effect from Keppel Land's good 3 QTR performance.
Blastoff ( Date: 22-Oct-2009 15:53) Posted:
|
Ya, its 3rd qtr result is crucial for it share value to go high. Bad results, than lots of people who buy at high price will get stuck.
God_of_War ( Date: 17-Oct-2009 13:48) Posted:
|
Capland had taken too much money from investors & those bonds. Must perform or may affect its share value.
risktaker ( Date: 16-Oct-2009 08:15) Posted:
|
I agree with frosin, in less than 10 days, the stock price has risen from 3.67 to the opening price today at 4.15, that's a more than 13% increase in less than 10 days. Also in today's news, "September new home sales drop" so I believe the property counters would be slowing down as they have all risen quite some over the last month. traders would want to cash in at this period of time after a long unsustainable hike. It won't be sustainable for long. I am looking at a correction of around 3-5%.
In extreme good news, a stock would move 5-7% range but for one good news capitaland has move so much already. isn't it not realistic to expected that the price would move further? remember we started the hike at $3.67 and moved beyond 11%.
I believe that there will be a correction. The rest of the surge will be when more information becomes available.
The real driver of this stock is not the Q3 report. But the Q3 report will help too :)
$4.35 - $4.50 range coming soon
amilytan ( Date: 15-Oct-2009 21:53) Posted:
|