...ya know, i should like other members to post long too. a bit tedious being the only one...like, can someone pls teach abt the panhandle and all that??



1) when reading volume charts, to determine if there's manipulation, you first need to make a judgement call: are the lots being bought/sold by retailers or institutions?



2) your clues come from the no: of lots sold, as well as _the time of the trade_. This 2nd is impt, esp when it's a close call of retail or institution. As for no: of lots, common sense alone will tell you that a normal retailer cannot buy 138 lots of SPC at one shot. (16:49:39 trade).



3) So what you gotta do is from the chart, divide up the vols into 4 parts: retail bought, retail sold. institution bought, institution sold.



4) manipulation occurs in 3 stages: 1st stage, when institutions flood retailers. 2nd stage, when retailers panic sell and institutions buy. 3rd stage: price up, institutions sell, retailers buy.



5) in practical vol terms:

stage 1--retail bought vol <<institution sold vol (therefore depression of price)

stage 2--retail sold is more or equal to institution bought (aka panic selling)

stage 3-price ramp up upon whatever good news. institution sold >> retail bought. ...which leads to consequent price slump after the high, and retailers left holding the baby.



if you look at SPC, we're only at stage 1. aka, tight control of SPC to induce panic selling. after all, common sense will tell ya that SPC tomorrow will drop, since all the news this weekend is abt warm weather, oil jitters etc. (of course, if enough ppl read this, SPC ain't gonna drop. haha. ppl, shoo!! haha)  

 

No worry about "lenghthy"... there's ample space... hehe.. :)

 

elf,

Very good analysis...but please do give the details of how you derived the figures. I am sure many of us members are interested to learn....even at the risk of being too lengthy.

Thanks.

 

hey thanks billec, you're a sweetheart! haha. the 2nd half of your 1st post was what i needed.



ok, have figured out what's going on. this is pure elfin territory. wheeee... brilliant manipulation at work here. i'm so impressed.



i'm not going to give the mathematics of it and my figures below are not 100% accurate either (to avoid another longwinded post), but basically, after eliminating the noise from the vol chart, what you have left:

retail investors: 214 lots bought. institutional sell: 612. (=> forced depression of counter) 

institutional sell: 612. institutional buy: 613. (=> no loss/gain to institution)

if you look at the vol, price and time trades, it's brilliantly tight control of SPC man. They're depressing this fella. nsengkia, don't rush to buy yet. looking at other charts, there'll still be some drop to go. the manipulation's not over yet.

whee! hehe.

disclaimer: the above is entirely my opinion. i might be 100% WRONG. caveat emptor.

 

Price   Trade       Volume         Buy           Sell


4.240         3         5,000          5,000           0
4.260     138    2,233,000    1,192,000    1,024,000
4.280       54      609,000       251,000       358,000
4.300       79    1,445,000      959,000        486,000
4.320       27       222,000       21,000        148,000

4.323         1          7,000              0             0
4.331         1          7,000              0             0
4.340         2        22,000              0            22,000

Total      305     4,550,000    2,428,000       2,038,000

 

Sorry! send again....

Price         Trade           Volume                Buy                    Sell

4.240            3                     5,000                  5,000           0
4.260        138             2,233,000            1,192,000           1,024,000
4.280          54                609,000               251,000              358,000
4.300          79             1,445,000               959,000              486,000
4.320          27                222,000                 21,000              148,000

4.323            1                    7,000                0                          0
4.331            1                    7,000                0                          0
4.340            2                  22,000                0                          22,000

Total         305             4,550,000                2,428,000       2,038,000

 

Hi elfinchilde,this is what u want, do something for us..thanks!

Price         Trade           Volume                Buy                    Sell

4.240            3                     5,000                  5,000           0

4.260        138             2,233,000            1,192,000           1,024,000

4.280          54                609,000               251,000              358,000

4.300          79             1,445,000               959,000              486,000

4.320          27                222,000                 21,000              148,000

4.323            1                    7,000                0                       0

4.331            1                    7,000                0                       0

4.340            2                  22,000                0                          22,000

Total         305             4,550,000                2,428,000       2,038,000

17:05:04	4.260	17000	X
16:59:59	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:59:32	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:59:07	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:59:06	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:58:55	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:58:54	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:58:41	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:58:40	4.260	5000	Buy Up
16:58:30	4.260	5000	Buy Up
16:58:20	4.260	5000	Buy Up
16:58:19	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:58:10	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:58:03	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:58:02	4.260	10000	Buy Up
16:57:44	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:57:43	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:57:42	4.260	5000	Buy Up
16:57:13	4.260	5000	Buy Up
16:56:54	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:56:19	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:55:57	4.260	10000	Buy Up
16:55:08	4.260	5000	Buy Up
16:54:58	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:54:47	4.260	5000	Buy Up
16:54:15	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:54:14	4.260	4000	Buy Up
16:54:13	4.260	27000	Buy Up
16:53:41	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:53:12	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:53:12	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:52:41	4.260	10000	Buy Up
16:52:28	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:52:22	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:52:17	4.260	9000	Sell Down
16:51:56	4.260	91000	Buy Up
16:51:51	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:51:46	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:51:13	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:50:44	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:50:43	4.260	4000	Buy Up
16:50:36	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:50:35	4.260	4000	Buy Up
16:50:11	4.260	4000	Buy Up
16:50:11	4.260	96000	Sell Down
16:50:05	4.260	142000	Buy Up
16:49:49	4.260	20000	Buy Up
16:49:39	4.260	138000	Buy Up
16:49:33	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:49:06	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:48:05	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:48:03	4.260	12000	Buy Up
16:48:03	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:47:57	4.240	1000	Sell Down
16:47:54	4.260	92000	Buy Up
16:47:24	4.260	7000	Buy Up
16:46:31	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:46:28	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:44:31	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:44:21	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:42:15	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:42:07	4.240	3000	Sell Down
16:40:36	4.240	1000	Sell Down
16:39:04	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:38:26	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:37:11	4.260	12000	Buy Up
16:36:46	4.260	5000	Buy Up
16:35:50	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:35:45	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:35:03	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:34:28	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:33:29	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:33:18	4.260	1000	Buy Up
16:33:15	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:33:13	4.260	3000	Buy Up
16:32:11	4.260	2000	Buy Up
16:31:58	4.260	20000	Buy Up
16:31:21	4.260	264000	Sell Down
16:26:08	4.260	10000	Sell Down
16:25:18	4.280	2000	Buy Up
16:21:26	4.280	1000	Buy Up
16:20:25	4.260	1000	Sell Down
16:20:01	4.260	1000	Sell Down
16:16:49	4.280	2000	Buy Up
16:13:01	4.280	2000	Buy Up
16:02:54	4.260	1000	Sell Down
15:50:32	4.260	1000	Sell Down
15:50:13	4.280	1000	Buy Up
15:49:03	4.260	6000	Sell Down
15:47:51	4.260	3000	Sell Down
15:45:35	4.260	2000	Sell Down
15:45:21	4.260	40000	Sell Down
15:44:42	4.260	2000	Sell Down
15:43:54	4.260	62000	Sell Down
15:36:50	4.280	2000	Buy Up
15:29:27	4.280	1000	Buy Up
15:28:08	4.260	2000	Sell Down
15:23:16	4.260	20000	Sell Down
15:22:42	4.260	30000	Sell Down
15:20:21	4.260	35000	Sell Down
15:18:40	4.280	1000	Buy Up
15:17:18	4.260	3000	Sell Down
15:13:24	4.260	6000	Buy Up
15:12:51	4.260	2000	Buy Up
15:12:38	4.260	2000	Buy Up
15:11:44	4.260	1000	Buy Up
15:11:20	4.260	1000	Buy Up
15:10:45	4.260	1000	Sell Down
15:10:40	4.260	15000	Sell Down
15:09:12	4.260	26000	Sell Down
15:07:16	4.260	28000	Sell Down
15:07:04	4.260	60000	Sell Down
15:06:14	4.280	1000	Buy Up
15:04:51	4.280	2000	Buy Up
15:03:41	4.280	1000	Buy Up
15:02:59	4.260	81000	Buy Up
15:02:14	4.260	4000	Buy Up
15:01:35	4.260	1000	Buy Up
15:01:24	4.260	2000	Buy Up
15:01:03	4.260	2000	Buy Up
14:59:39	4.260	3000	Buy Up
14:57:25	4.260	2000	Buy Up
14:57:07	4.260	1000	Buy Up
14:56:46	4.260	3000	Buy Up
14:56:12	4.260	2000	Buy Up
14:56:10	4.260	2000	Buy Up
14:54:05	4.260	10000	Buy Up

 

Good insight.  Intesting hypothesis.  Big player sell down large amounts late in the trading day to collect when small guys panic and sell on Mon.
Have been studying the counter for some time and it looks real good.  Will start my Regular Savings Plan into SPC on Mon.
Good luck to all of us vested.

 

sigh...giantlow, i'm just reading what the charts are telling me. i hate to be alarmist tho, which is why i'm asking for the trade vol summary. i need it to confirm what i'm thinking.

mwzl95, this is strictly my guess: sudden surge in vol means spc's report is out to the brokerage houses already--or at the very least, they have a whiff of something--which is why someone's taking action already.

i mean, look at the vol sum posted by yongjiu, you guys. do you think any normal investor can just queue for 91 lots of SPC just like that? we're talking abt a four dollar stock here, not some penny.  

 

Why the sudden surge in volume?

 

huh? all the talk about the impending doom of SPC is making me unwell. maybe i'll take mc tmrw.

elf, u mentioned major drop??? dun scare me leh.

 

..shplayer, i need the trade vol summary. does anyone happen to have it? like the one yongjiu pasted (4.59 pm, x lots bought at x price. 5pm, x lots sold at x price).

if someone has it, pls put it up asap....

...i'm suspecting a big drop on monday itself. but i need to confirm if someone's pressing down the counter to buy it up. from the little bit that yongjiu posted, the lots queued are out of the normal already.

 

elf,

do keep us informed when you are able to 'figure out whats' going on with this counter.

Thanks

 

gho485,

Compared to FY05, the FY06 results will not be as good. FY06 was an exceptional year for SPC (eps 85.2cts, Div 32cts tax exempt)) and oil companies around the world.

However, my estimate for FY06 is about eps 59cts (div 20cts TE) which is similiar to FY04 results which was the best result for SPC at that time.

In fact, if my est is correct, then FY06 is a better year for SPC than FY04 due to dilution of earnings.....approx 15% dilution from convertible bonds (now fully converted) issued in 2004, and share options.

In anycase, the anticipated lower FY06 earnings (vs FY05) is reflected in the share price.

Going forward, (I dislike this term)...

• SPC's earnings should be boosted by its 'upstream' business...Oyang field (mid 07) and possibly Jeruk down the road.
• However, its refining margins may face pressure with new refineries around the world coming on stream. 

It will be interesting to see how these 2 factors tilts the balnce for SPC.