Post Reply
6181-6200 of 10899
tks 68 for the explicit updates on the AGM. AK didn't turn up for the AGM.
Instead, hunting for a missing sick man whom I had posted his agony quite sometime ago. I found him, he was landed in NUH 10 over days liao. Visited him yesterday afternoon.
thanks guys for the info... can keep under my pillow ....
these ang moh sure know how to tease the buyer
.....
"Michael Keline said he believe we should build a solid company and let people come and offer. He has been thru several M&As in his career and to get the best price for M&A is not making fanciful presentations in selling your company to potential buyers but let them want you and come and buy you. "
u worth more when ppl come to u....and not u go to ppl.....
For those who missed today's AGM:
1. Someone asked about confusion about JWMS deal as inside the circular, it says that "SPA New Shares based on prevailing market price of shares on the SGX up to a maximum of $1.08 per new share and on such other terms as may be determined by the directors of the company" as very confusing as the JWMS deal clearly stated the issueed price is at $1.08.
- The CFO clarified that issue of SPA new shares to WeiGao will be at $1.08 and will not be issued at a lesser value. The number of shares to be issued are stated clearly in the S&P Agreement.
2. Someone asked about Credit Sussie report a few days ago. CS said there is likelihood Chinese government may block the deal. CS also said positive LEADERS trial expected but lowered the earnings forcast of BIG for FY10 & FY11. Why CS lower the earnings if LEADERS is good?
- The CEO said he has not got any knowledge that Chinese government is trying to block the deal. It is in WeiGao's interest to see the deal go thru for their longer term benefits. What WeiGao see in BIG is DES technology and potential to go global. What BIG see in JWMS is immediate extensive China distribution network to launch their future products in China quickly. CEO said distribution channel in China can be build up but it takes time and he would prefer to buy over JWMS but it is not a do or die thing for BIG. He has contingency plans already in place on how to penetrate into China even without 100% JWMS ownership.
- LEADERS trial is as what Mr Investor has described (see his post that i posted couple of days earlier). Its a real world kind of RCT and not narrowing the patient group into playing "soccer on basketball court". Also, LEADERS is challenging the best DES around. Other DES rivals love to challenge Taxus because they know the can beat or be on par against Taxus. Nobody dare to do a challenge with Cypher (Sirolimus) and you got to really have a lot of substance to challenge with Cypher. Its like challenging Manchester United. If you win, you are considered the best of the best. If LEADERS is good, sales will definitely increase which will bring in the profits so CS report about reduction of earnings in FY10 & 11 is wrong and without any basis.
3. Someone asked about BIG's future royalty as it is totally not mentioned in any analysts' forecasted earnings. Royalties as a multiple stream of income and major profit generator has not caght the attention of most investors.
- CFO said royalties will begin once licensees products get their regulatory approvals. Among Xtent, Devax and Terumo, he expects royalties from Terumo to be very substantial, esp in Japan market. He said Nobori is still in the progress of obtaining Japan regulatory approvals. However, he would rather not give forecast to analysts on expected royalties 2 or 3 years down the road. (I think BIG is bounded by licensing agreement confidentially clause not to disclose anything without prior consent from the licensee).
4. Someone said JNJ bought Conor at US$1.4B for a stent that cannot work and full of patent ligations. Abbott bought Xience R&D program for US$4.1B whcih is using BIG's older Everolimus IPs. BIG is probably the best stent developer in the world (subject to confirmation of LEADERS results). BIG also has CE Mark and China JWMS but why is BIG's market cap now so pitiful at US$0.35B? Thats is less than 10% of what Abbott paid for an above average performance DES program.
- LYC said he is the biggest shareholder of this company and he is also in the same plight as all the rest of shareholders. He assures that the most important asset of this company is the technology and he feels we are indeed the best of the best. He said we are very close to making the biggest break in the DES industry and once we make it, we are unstoppable from there on. We are in the medical device business and the clinically best product has a huge advantage to capture market share and become the top selling product. Michael Keline said he believe we should build a solid company and let people come and offer. He has been thru several M&As in his career and to get the best price for M&A is not making fanciful presentations in selling your company to potential buyers but let them want you and come and buy you. The best way to make them come to you is when they are constantly losing market share month after month to you. Then the buyers will know you are really good. The focus now is building this company's sales, capturing more market share and be the best in stent technology. If you are good, people will come to you. BIG is not abandoning USA market but taking a step back. New Port Beach office in USA is closed and massive STEALTH2 RCT for FDA submission is cancelled. (I think BIG is looking to license out Biomatrix USA territory instead).
5. Someone said BIG's share price dropped substantially after CE because many shareholders grew impatient with BIG's gloomy forecast of continue to make losses for H1 of FY09 and only breakeven for H2 of FY09. How is the sales of Biomatrix doing and Excel's current market share in China. Can BIG revise the forecast if Q1 sales are positive as all the analysts just churn out multiple years of forecasted figures based on your near term forecasted figure.
- CFO said when he made the forecast earlier, it was at his true believe that the forecast was not gloomy at the point when he made the projections. A forecast of revenue increase of 2 times in just 1 year is very rarely seen in the corporate world and thats about the amount of growth he forecasted for BIG's internal sales (excluding JWMS). He said he will relook into it and call for another analysts forecast when Q1 results are out.
***The mood was generally upbeat and i feel they somehow is trying to tell shareholders that BIG is already the best of the best in terms of technology and BIG is about to be unstoppable to capture DES market share from rivals.
TA wise Biosensor worth a punt if it break abv 50c with target price at 56, 60 & 65c.
a base seem to be formed however plz cut if it drop below recent low
Hi cwwan1 bro...
so what and how u feel after the AGM? positive ...... negative ....
Hello investor,
Today i went to the AGM. Mr Chua KL, the exceutive board member put it very simple and funny( easy for layman to understand). Leader trials is different from other trial. He says most of the time the trial is against BSX taxus but Bio is daring to take on the best of the best which is Cypher of J&J at that time 3 years back. He used analogy like soccer team. West Ham take on the champion of the champion like Manchestor United. As for the scope of the trial, he used the analogy of basketball game and soccer game. It is easy to scored goals in basketball beacuse of the court size. The scope of the trial for other trials has a lot of limitation(patient conditions). But for leaders trials, it is real life trial with scope that is bigger than a basketball ball court like the football field. You are absolutely right!
investor ( Date: 20-Jul-2008 14:10) Posted:
|
Just checked .. the website had been updated liao ... finally .....
Cheers .....
Maxximo ( Date: 21-Jul-2008 22:26) Posted:
|
Thanks AK,
Do update us for any developement if you do attend the AGM .... and do make some noise on the recent dissappointing price movement..... but dun get thrown out .. haha ...
Lastly, maybe you can ask the marketing team to wake up cos the website had not even updated the new CEO name in place ..... si bei chia luck .... like tat oso can overlook ..... ( I dun know if they have updated it but late last month it was not lor ...). If this happened in my current working place, the marketing team head will roll .....
Cheers.
Me vested too ... tats why bui ta han the way they do their IR .... or may be dun have at all.
May Ti Gong bless us all ......
AK_Francis ( Date: 21-Jul-2008 18:10) Posted:
|
Biosensors Announces Appointment of Dr. Jack Wang as
Chief Operating Officer
Singapore, 21 July 2008
“Jack has been one of Biosensors’ most important resources for many years,” commented Mike Kleine, President and Chief Executive Officer of Biosensors. Kleine continued, “Under Jack’s direction, JWMS has become a major factor in the China stent market, as he has been the driving force of that operation since its inception. As we now prepare for accelerated business growth, we need someone of Jack’s capabilities to lead our operations. We also expect that Jack’s product development experience and vision will greatly accelerate the commercialization of our new product pipeline.” Dr. Wang said, “I am very excited at the prospect of increased responsibility at Biosensors. While I will continue to function as CEO of JWMS, we have laid a strong foundation at JWMS over the past several years and I am confident that our China team is capable of continued growth, as I shift a significant portion of my time to Biosensors global operating activities. We also have a great operating team at Biosensors and I look forward to the challenges of the BioMatrix launch.” Prior to joining Biosensors in 2001, Dr. Wang served as Manager in new product development for Johnson & Johnson (Cordis) and as Project Group Leader in stent delivery systems for Guidant Corporation. Dr. Wang has been granted more than 20 US and European patents in medical devices and technology and has published more than 30 scientific papers on polymer materials and processing. Dr. Wang received his doctorate in polymer science from Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Masters Degree from Clarkson University, Potsdam and Bachelor of Science degree in Chemistry and Chemical Engineering from Tsinghua University, Beijing.
– Biosensors International Group, Ltd. (“Biosensors”, “Company”, Bloomberg: BIG SP), announced the appointment of Dr. Jack Wang as Chief Operating Officer, effective today. Dr. Wang has been involved in Biosensors’ operating activities and product development efforts since 2001, most recently serving as the Chief Executive Officer of JW Medical Systems (“JWMS”), the Company’s China-based joint venture with Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited. Under his leadership, JWMS became one of the top three providers of drug-eluting stents in China within two years of the launch its Excel drug-eluting stent. Dr. Wang will remain as the senior officer of JWMS and will assume responsibility for all operating activities of Biosensors, including manufacturing, quality and product development.tomorrow is the AGM, Chairman, Mr Yoh or CEO Mr Mic Kleine may post some lights on the results.
If 2nite DJ swee swee, then 2morrow AK may attend the AGM. Can't expect good goodies or door gifts liao. AK will against issue extra shares, if other share holders also against the resolution.
Buffet lunch should hv lah, as AGM is at 0945am at Marina Mandrin Hotel.
Maxximo ( Date: 21-Jul-2008 14:59) Posted:
|
By the way, does anyone know when is the highly anticipated BIG's FY09 1st Qtr report out ??? End or Mid Aug'09 ???
Cheers ......
Hi eastwest,
I think Mr. Investor has summarized it well. Just to add …
>a. IF Bio performs well in the Leaders' trial, Do you believe that it is a matter of time before Bio is bought over?
Linking a trial result to a potential takeover is quite a difficult thing to do. But certainly stunning results, like a clear (TKO) knockout by Biomatrix on Cypher will certainly help the cause. There are certain parameters that the medical fraternity is eying when they choose one stent over another. It is unclear which parameters are the most important but Bengster once posted (maybe about a month ago) about 5 key ones (like MACE, TLR, etc..). So these are the ones that we need to look out to make a judgment on how clear a winner Biomatrix is. It’s like Cristiano Ronaldo banging in 30+ goals and suddenly he is the most sought after player. The results have to be solid and proven. So the same can be said for the Leaders trial. The results must be stunning and must have the potential to knock out any rivals as well. If these ingredients are there, then the potential company that wants to buyout knows it can garner a large market share given that the right amount of marketing and lobbying is done. I mention marketing and lobbying because as we know, BIG is not that big in cash so it has a difficult time marketing to get a larger market share and lobbying as bengster pointed is sometimes clouded with some “kelong issues”. Leaders is a large scale trial and the larger it is the more credible the results are. So far, Stealth trials and Nobori numbers are relatively lower. So a stunning result in Leaders is more credible and will certainly carry more weight in M&A decision making.
I believe that there are other major factors besides Leaders alone that a potential company taking over has to decide upon. One of them is the pipeline of IPs that BIG has. Another is the market share that it has built. Capturing a large china market will certainly be a plus. I have checked BIGs patents/filings etc. and tried to study the other technologies in the pipeline. I must say that, BIG has some fantastic stuff after Biomatrix. Biomatrix Freedom is one of them and I like the scientific rigor that these guys have put in to ensure that it works well. In summary, it’s no use just buying a company for just one of its product but potentially the other products that they have to ensure market sustainability in the longer term future.
> b. If Bio is to stay independent, do you believe that at current price, this stock is undervalued?
There are several ways to assess if the stock is overvalued or undervalued. I am not an expert on this. Those who are using FA and current earnings will probably tell you that it is overvalued… since it is still loss making. Going by the DCF method that Investor mentioned, it is undervalued. To me, I am assessing the value of this company based on the better technology it has compared to their rivals. I think that this company has some solid technology and there are some early clinical results to prove this. In comparing technology, we should also avoid mixing up our comparisons between technologies that touches on healthcare with non-healthcare ones. I believe in healthcare stocks, technology that shows safety and efficacy through clinical trials will almost always capture the market (I am saying “almost always” provided that good marketing is done). Come on!, we are playing with people lifes here….so logically the better technology will prevail. This is unlike non-healthcare stocks, for example stocks like Microsoft and Apple. One had the better technology long time ago but could not capture the market. The CE approval was just around the corner. So this is a turnaround period for BIG. We should wait for Q1 & Q2 figures to show what impact the past (smaller) clinical results has on Biomatrix. If the sales numbers are good prior to Leaders, then we know how the general medical community views the Biomatrix technology. And if Leaders shows a stunning result, then like what bengster mentioned, the sales figure will shoot up immediately. In summary, I think this stock is undervalued for the fact that it has a superior technology when compared to its rivals. I believe analyst also believe this and have used their DCF method to give an overperform rating on this stock.
> What attracts you to BIo?
It’s superior technology! The fact that it can innovate and stay ahead of the rest. I think it’s a hidden gem and I myself cannot believe that such a company is listed here in
I think licensing is a major revenue for BIG but very under-estimated. 3 years later, BIG should be receiving royalty from all their licensees namely Devax (CE markets), Xtent (CE markets), Terumo (CE markets and Japan). Royalty for such licensing agreements is normally around 35 to 40% of sales. I expect Terumo's Nobori to become the leader of Japan DES market with at least 50% market share there. So if we add royalty on to BIG's income, 3 years later we are talking about US$150m of recurring pure cash royalty profit at zero expense. As BIG is a small company and cannot capture global markets alone, BIG is using licensing (like franchise system) to make the most out from their top class DES technology. This licensing royalty is often not mentioned but it is certainly there and going to become a main pillar of profit for BIG.
Terumo's Nobori already has CE Mark, going to be approved in Japan by mid-2009. Im very confident Nobori can capture at least 50% of Japan's US$600m a year DES market by end 2010. We must remember Terumo is the biggest boy in Japan, even bigger than JNJ, ABT, BSX or MDT in their homeground Japan market. If a lousy DES like Endeavor can capture 20% of USA market within 3 months and an average performing DES like Xience(Promus) is predicted to capture 65% of USA market share by end 2009, i think im not being very ambitious to predict Nobori will capture 50% of Japan market by end 2010. Say BIG's share of royalty is at 40% of sales, US$600m X 50% X 40% = US$120m. Terumo has "exclusive" Japan market (meaning BIG cannot sell Biomatrix there) and i believe a royalty of 40% is very possible for such "exclusive territory" deal. I expect Xtent to have their CE Mark later this year. Not sure about Devax's CE but should be soon also because utilisation of BiolimusA9 and PLA biodegradable polymer with BIG as this DES technology leader is already CE approved. Do not under-estimate BIG's future royalty profit. It is pure cash profit at zero expense.
Actually, the business model of Biosensors is not that difficult to analyse, compare to say a chinese stock, doing manufacturing. These chinese stocks's profitability vary according to cost, margin, competition, and you may not even know what is in the balance sheet sometimes.
Once, you know the medical terms involved in Biosensors, and you can understand the product's characteristics compared to other Stents, it becomes easier. ALso, there is product differentiation between Biosensors product - bio-degradable polymer, compared to current products There is a huge barrier to entry for these products, and once you get the coveted CE mark or FDA approval, the probability for success is very high.
If you look at the history of their product developement, the Nobori trials was the clincher that immediately tells you that this product is indeed different, and of course also the XTENT results is fanastic - so the LEADERS trial is a very important trial, to further cement the solidness of the product.
I thnk that it takes at least 5 yrs or more for a product from inception, animal studies, etc in order to go to commercialisation.
You are talking about a global mkt size of US$5 billion, and once you are the top 3 in terms of clinical performance - need I say more ? Biosensors is at the cusp of becoming profitable -
Having said all these, the reality is that Biosensors is still loss making-- and the clinical performance MUST translate into actual profits, and that we have to see in the NEXT 6 - 12 mth (Got to give them 12 mths, to see some results, I believe)
In that sense, Biosensors is a high risk stock to be in (please do your own homework) and the medical world can change rapidly. (BUT any new concept takes at least 3-5 yrs to get off the ground). Johnson and Johnson and Boston Scientific has already make tons of money, in the last 4-5 yrs, before the new products like Endeavor and Xience comes in.
Comparing the clinical results, I think Biosensors stands a chance to do well, and going by the analysts comments (their valuation is based on a DCF methodology) and Biosensors mgmt target of US$250m in 3 yrs, and assuming a net margin of 40 %, this translates into US$100m profit, giving Biosensors a earnings per share of approx 13.5 cents.
This means that at pe ratio of 10 times, Biosensors should be worth $1.35 and if you value it at 20 times pe, then it is worth $2.70.
I do not even want to think about take-overs, if your business is doing well, why worry ?
Again, not a call to buy/sell - very risky stock