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Thanks but div only 1.11% on closing price. Likely to fall further today.
tormont ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 22:45) Posted:
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The Board of Directors will be recommending a first and final one-tier tax exempt dividend of 0.3 cents per ordinary share to be paid in respect of the current year reported on, subject to shareholders approval at the Company’s Annual General Meeting to be held on 21st April 2011. - Financial Statements for 12 months and Fourth Quarter ended 31 December 2010
dividend lookin at possible 0.3 wow hoo
GMG fell heavily with huge volume , it may reach the support at 25 cents soon .
Bintang ( Date: 22-Jan-2011 11:49) Posted:
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i invested small small 5 lot only but waiting to contra this counter. see tom how...maybe can contra.. but dunno market must be stable first.
GuavaXF30 ( Date: 14-Feb-2011 11:52) Posted:
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GMG Global: More upside for plantation stock if rubber prices stay buoyant
After a spectacular run last year, homegrown natural rubber play GMG Global’s share price has largely hovered at 30 cents despite buoyant natural rubber prices. With rubber prices surging past US$6,100 per tonne (¥504/kg) to “never-before-seen levels” in spite of China raising interest rates for the third time in four months on Feb 8, would GMG start looking cheap again?
Jeffrey Ng, analyst with Bank of America- Merrill Lynch, thinks so. When initiating coverage on the stock with a 50-cent price target on Jan 26, he named GMG (51%-controlled by Sinochem International) the research house’s “preferred Asean soft commodity play”.
Credit: Bloomberg
There’s a 64% upside to Ng’s price target when measured against GMG’s 30.5 cent-close on Feb 9. But its share price had hardly budged since, despite natural rubber prices climbing higher. Ker Chung Yang, investment analyst with Phillip Futures, thinks it remains to be seen if natural rubber prices can convincingly stay above ¥500/kg. “The rubber price surge may be a knee-jerk reaction because [China’s] interest rate hike, being within market expectations, wasn’t bad news.”
Natural rubber prices could also take their cue from China’s trade balance and consumer price index numbers to be released on Feb 14 and 15. “What you want are numbers that are within expectations, because exceptionally strong or poor economic data coming out of China could spark profit-taking activity as the market speculates on the possibility of further cooling measures,” Ker tells The Edge Singapore.
Still, natural rubber prices need to stay high to encourage investment. As rubber trees take seven years to mature and another three to reach peak production, investors typically take a 10- year view on the sector, versus only three years for oil palm.
And the current supply shortage — owing to years of under-investment — that experts foresee to last through 2012 could be the re-rating catalyst for stocks with exposure to the sector.
“We expect the rubber price rally to last until 2012,” Ng wrote in the initiation note, preferring GMG over other stocks with exposure to the commodity’s rally such as Thailand’s Sri Trang Agro-Industry Pcl, the world’s largest listed rubber processor but still mainly a midstream player.
Ng also prefers GMG over oil palm planters with rubber tree acreage such as Malaysia-listed Kuala Lumpur Kepong and Indonesia-listed London Sumatra, a unit of Indofood Agri Resources.
Of Ng’s 50 cent-valuation for GMG, 38 cents, or 76%, was derived from ascribing a 20 times multiple to its plantations. The multiple assigned largely depends on rubber price expectations and the age profile of a rubber tree, he says. Investors, he adds, should pay for the full production cycle of 20 to 25 years (being 20 to 25 times), if rubber price prospects are bullish seven to 12 years (seven to 12 times) on a downcycle and 13 to 17 times on a flat year. “A rising rubber price trend commands peak PER as the share price tends to trade in tandem with spot rubber price.” The remaining 12 cents to Ng’s 50 cent-price target for GMG are 10 times FY2011 earnings from its processing business.
GMG has yet to demonstrate its ability to secure enough feedstock for the new processing capacity it acquired in Thailand last November, and that could be a reason its share price has yet to reflect the potential value of 12 cents Ng has ascribed to the company’s processing business. To recap, 59%, or 200,000 tonnes, of GMG’s annual capacity of 341,000 tonnes were added from Thai-based Teck Bee Hang (TBH). GMG had bought a 55% stake in TBH.
Moreover, Ng’s price target falls to 36 cents using a discounted cash flow-model, implying 11.2 times FY2011 earnings.
More information on GMG’s capacity utilisation could come as early as next week, though. The company is slated to release its FY2010 earnings on Feb 23, numbers which would incorporate losses from TBH. GMG is looking to turn the Thai unit around in FY2011, but its exposure to multiple currencies could be a wildcard for earnings. Still, Ng forecasts GMG’s FY2011E profit to rise 127% to $124.9 million, driven by higher average selling price and volume.
For now, GMG’s 42,560ha of rubber plantations in Cameroon and Ivory Coast are supporting its share price. “We believe GMG is on the right side of the planting cycle and will be in peak production cycle for the next seven years. This will enable it to benefit entirely from the rubber price rally,” Ng writes.
As an early investor in Africa, GMG has also demonstrated the ability to source for more landbank in the continent, as seen with the 41,000ha in Cameroon it secured for cultivation last year. On the other hand, Sri Trang, which is looking to boost its one million-tonne capacity to 1.5 million tonnes by end-2012, has only 1,681ha of land in Thailand.
Meanwhile, closing at $1.27 on Feb 9, Sri Trang’s shares are up 5.8% from its Singapore dual-listing debut price of $1.20 apiece on Jan 31. While it doesn’t own mature rubber trees, the huge volume Sri Trang is able to source, process and deliver to large tyre makers such as Goodyear and Bridgestone gives the group pricing leverage.
“As the shares are fully fungible, [dual-listed Sri Trang] is definitely a playground for arbitrageurs. Its shares trade at an undemanding forward PER of nine times,” Kim Eng Research analyst Anni Kum wrote in a Feb 7 note. Analysts who cover Sri Trang out of Thailand have price targets ranging from $1.52 to $1.83, according to Bloomberg data at the time of writing, offering at least a 20% upside potential
Rub hands....
oh yeah...
LOL
Commodity is king for the next 2 years. So, I dun mind putting some $$$
that way. So far, this counter has been kind to me.
Price go down, better still :)
Soon. Don't have to wait too long. But question is, when it does, will you still want to buy ?
kaoluck ( Date: 14-Feb-2011 16:24) Posted:
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Been trying to accumulate @ .285 or .29
Still waiting.. zZzz..
Anyone know whn Q4 will be announced?
Too many false starts already. First excuse of Ivory Coast, now that is quiet, no other news on hand. Don't think this is one that you should time. If yested, have to look longer term. If not, can afford to wait. Probably can retrace back down below 030 or lower...
yummygd ( Date: 14-Feb-2011 10:05) Posted:
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gmg been on top vol list for some time now....with e downturned gmg seems still zai.....question now is....is this e sign of consolidation? if yes goin to keep eye out for next chiong.
GMG Global Limited– Rising rubber prices could benefit |
Rubber reversed yesterday’s price decline on the back of speculation of increased Chinese purchases following the CNY celebrations to replenish depleted stockpiles. Jul-delivery futures gained as much as 2.1% this morning on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. // GMG. |
By the way, when will GMG be releasing their results?
Thanks but not new news. People already know this but price of GMG still doldrum. Think it's already been pusked up as much as it can go this year.
Do remember 18th May 2010 was 0.18 c, moved up and than stuck at 0.24 - 0.26 price for most of 3rd quarter of 2010, moved up to this level but ding-donged for last 3 months, having hit high of 0.335c in November. Can it go back up to 0.40 level (2009)? Maybe, maybe not....
kiasiDBT ( Date: 08-Feb-2011 22:38) Posted:
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Rubber Climbs to Near Record as China May Increase Purchases
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber increased as a price decline yesterday spurred investors to buy amid speculation China, the world’s largest user, may step up purchases after the New Year holiday to replenish stockpiles.
The July-delivery contract gained as much as 2.1 percent to 501.3 yen a kilogram ($6,090 a metric ton) before trading at 499.3 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange as of 11:57 a.m. The most-active contract had the biggest one-day drop since Jan. 26 yesterday, retreating from a record 504 yen reached Feb. 4.
China will resume trade tomorrow after the weeklong holiday. Natural-rubber inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 58,673 tons, 61 percent below last year’s peak of 151,832 tons, the bourse said Feb. 1.
“Rubber is buoyed by expectations that Chinese buying may gather pace,” Kazunori Kokubo, general manager at Tokyo-based broker Yutaka Shoji Co., said today by phone. “The approach of wintering is another support to the market.”
Farmers reduce tapping during the so-called wintering period from February to May, when rubber trees shed leaves and latex production declines. Some plantation areas in northeast Thailand have already entered the low-output season, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.
Rubber users tend to increase stockpiles of raw material before the low-production period begins in major growing areas. Thai rubber production usually shrinks as much as 60 percent from peak levels, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
La Nina
Rubber futures have gained 20 percent this year, extending last year’s 50 percent rally, as rising car sales led by China and India improved demand for tires. Supplies from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top growers representing 70 percent of global supply, were curbed as a La Nina has led to higher- than-average rains in parts of Southeast Asia. The weather event started in June and usually lasts for nine months or more.
The Thai physical price remained at a record 184.05 baht ($5.97) per kilogram yesterday, supported by car sales and supply concerns, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said.
The Shanghai market is closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. May-delivery rubber in Shanghai climbed to a record 41,850 yuan ($6,350) a ton on Jan. 31.
Natural-rubber consumption in China may rise 9 percent to 3.6 million tons this year, while rubber use in India may gain 5.2 percent to 991,000 tons, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
Natural-rubber output in India, the fourth-biggest producer, gained 2.8 percent in the 10 months through January as favorable weather and record prices boosted production, the state-run Rubber Board said yesterday.
Production totaled 749,950 metric tons in the April-January period, compared with 729,250 tons a year earlier, the board said in an e-mailed statement. Output was 98,800 tons last month, little changed from 97,500 tons a year earlier, it said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo at atakada2@bloomberg.net Supunnabul Suwannakij in Bangkok at ssuwannakij@bloomberg.net
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber increased as a price decline yesterday spurred investors to buy amid speculation China, the world’s largest user, may step up purchases after the New Year holiday to replenish stockpiles.
The July-delivery contract gained as much as 2.1 percent to 501.3 yen a kilogram ($6,090 a metric ton) before trading at 499.3 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange as of 11:57 a.m. The most-active contract had the biggest one-day drop since Jan. 26 yesterday, retreating from a record 504 yen reached Feb. 4.
China will resume trade tomorrow after the weeklong holiday. Natural-rubber inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 58,673 tons, 61 percent below last year’s peak of 151,832 tons, the bourse said Feb. 1.
“Rubber is buoyed by expectations that Chinese buying may gather pace,” Kazunori Kokubo, general manager at Tokyo-based broker Yutaka Shoji Co., said today by phone. “The approach of wintering is another support to the market.”
Farmers reduce tapping during the so-called wintering period from February to May, when rubber trees shed leaves and latex production declines. Some plantation areas in northeast Thailand have already entered the low-output season, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.
Rubber users tend to increase stockpiles of raw material before the low-production period begins in major growing areas. Thai rubber production usually shrinks as much as 60 percent from peak levels, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
La Nina
Rubber futures have gained 20 percent this year, extending last year’s 50 percent rally, as rising car sales led by China and India improved demand for tires. Supplies from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top growers representing 70 percent of global supply, were curbed as a La Nina has led to higher- than-average rains in parts of Southeast Asia. The weather event started in June and usually lasts for nine months or more.
The Thai physical price remained at a record 184.05 baht ($5.97) per kilogram yesterday, supported by car sales and supply concerns, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said.
The Shanghai market is closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. May-delivery rubber in Shanghai climbed to a record 41,850 yuan ($6,350) a ton on Jan. 31.
Natural-rubber consumption in China may rise 9 percent to 3.6 million tons this year, while rubber use in India may gain 5.2 percent to 991,000 tons, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
Natural-rubber output in India, the fourth-biggest producer, gained 2.8 percent in the 10 months through January as favorable weather and record prices boosted production, the state-run Rubber Board said yesterday.
Production totaled 749,950 metric tons in the April-January period, compared with 729,250 tons a year earlier, the board said in an e-mailed statement. Output was 98,800 tons last month, little changed from 97,500 tons a year earlier, it said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo at atakada2@bloomberg.net Supunnabul Suwannakij in Bangkok at ssuwannakij@bloomberg.net
huh!!! Gmg growth potential is huuuggge! But if u dun feel that way its okie. Each to its own.
zllz78 ( Date: 28-Jan-2011 12:20) Posted:
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i am guessing the company will not announce any dividends since it has recently acquired a few companies... earnings wise, i would think that for the full year, earnings will show an astronomical increase... but QOQ, it might be slower since the Ivory Coast political turmoil has affected its shipments of rubber out of the African state...
more selling... will it break 0.305 today?
Depends on how u see things and ur objective.. I guess..
IMHO.. it's probably correction (& mkt sentiment) and trying to gain
foothold before heading north again.
Which is healthy.. as long as not drop below support level la
Any guru out there care to comment?
Hmmm
GMG seems to dropping leh.....Will she moving up...
Please view thanks ?