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Gold going up this year?

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cheongwee
    17-May-2009 01:28  
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The road to dow 10000 can never be a straight line, otherwise all  ho say liao..

sell now buy cheap later..
 
 
cheongwee
    17-May-2009 01:25  
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i think dont vested to the nose...just enough to sleep well. ..if u cannot sleep well, means u are over vested..

ok , one thing at a time, right now forget abt gold and silver..leave that to sept..

now for kepland, i suggest u sell, the push up is due to right issue, nw this is over, it have to come down..dont hold, the longer the greater the lose...i see this at 1.6 to 1.7...at worse 1.5

but i do see a major leg down for market this summer...mid june to july...before rally fr there...that means kepland got more to go down.

i suggest sell to strength fr now on......

 



raceceres      ( Date: 16-May-2009 21:31) Posted:

Bought in during the XR period at 2.1 dun see the point of letting go now, am crossing my fingers that it will be push up during rights.. 

with so many different opinions and limited knowledge, i no longer know which counter is a good buy. silver seems like an upcoming commodity  



cheongwee      ( Date: 16-May-2009 18:17) Posted:

actually, what are the chances, but why risk?..wat heck do they have eye all over, but as again, who the heck know..just in case...never mind.

how do you get stuck in kepland..this is one hell of a good stock..i sold early, but i make alot out of it...bought 1.25...sold 2.2..and it go higher...anyway i put $ on another counter to ride.



 
 
raceceres
    16-May-2009 21:31  
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Bought in during the XR period at 2.1 dun see the point of letting go now, am crossing my fingers that it will be push up during rights.. 

with so many different opinions and limited knowledge, i no longer know which counter is a good buy. silver seems like an upcoming commodity  



cheongwee      ( Date: 16-May-2009 18:17) Posted:

actually, what are the chances, but why risk?..wat heck do they have eye all over, but as again, who the heck know..just in case...never mind.

how do you get stuck in kepland..this is one hell of a good stock..i sold early, but i make alot out of it...bought 1.25...sold 2.2..and it go higher...anyway i put $ on another counter to ride.



raceceres      ( Date: 16-May-2009 17:42) Posted:

haha, then you better not post, i have no money to pay for your lawyer fees, all stuck wif kep land. well,  i have do more self-studying and research before getting another investment. will take note of the thread and advice. thanks!


 

 
cheongwee
    16-May-2009 18:36  
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I do make call on Armstrong, Mermaid, Stamdfordld, Sar, Qianhu...which i am just as sure..check.

but with gold and silver...i am DEAD sure..that i put more than 3/4 of vested here...really.

but as of current i have move big into silver...since early 08

look at silver begining of 2009 GSR (gold to silver ratio) was 1 to 78...today it is 1 to 66.

this means silver is oputperforming gold...look like my move into silver is bringing result.

you may be interest in silver...poor man gold they call...becos it is cheap..so can easily push in any bull.
 
 
cheongwee
    16-May-2009 18:29  
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the nick i use here is my name...cheongwee..really...so it is transparent..
 
 
cheongwee
    16-May-2009 18:27  
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it is true, when dollar strengthen, gold go down..but fr 2001 to nw..gold fr 250 to 900..260%...stock lose money..dow 2001 10600 to nw ..8300..lose 20% over..

hope u see the bigger picture..like Peter Schiff said...fr 30000 ft.

going forward it is going to be profitable..one thing now is that as thge bull get stronger,,, it will outrun the dollar, thus dollar and gold inverse effect will m nolonger apply..

Last year.2008..all loss money.all go under....only gold make money..



raceceres      ( Date: 16-May-2009 17:54) Posted:

i forgot all abt the question, was starting to read abt gold investment, usually investors purchased gold as a hedge against currency and stock market fluctuation. Gold and stocks are uncorrelated, gold value is going down, stocks prices should be up, isn't it? 

 

 
cheongwee
    16-May-2009 18:17  
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actually, what are the chances, but why risk?..wat heck do they have eye all over, but as again, who the heck know..just in case...never mind.

how do you get stuck in kepland..this is one hell of a good stock..i sold early, but i make alot out of it...bought 1.25...sold 2.2..and it go higher...anyway i put $ on another counter to ride.



raceceres      ( Date: 16-May-2009 17:42) Posted:

haha, then you better not post, i have no money to pay for your lawyer fees, all stuck wif kep land. well,  i have do more self-studying and research before getting another investment. will take note of the thread and advice. thanks!

 
 
raceceres
    16-May-2009 17:54  
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i forgot all abt the question, was starting to read abt gold investment, usually investors purchased gold as a hedge against currency and stock market fluctuation. Gold and stocks are uncorrelated, gold value is going down, stocks prices should be up, isn't it? 
 
 
raceceres
    16-May-2009 17:42  
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haha, then you better not post, i have no money to pay for your lawyer fees, all stuck wif kep land. well,  i have do more self-studying and research before getting another investment. will take note of the thread and advice. thanks!
 
 
cheongwee
    16-May-2009 17:14  
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i dont mind to post what stock i bought, but they will sue me for damage...i am  not allow to paste a copy fr the newslatter abt inv advise here also......u see i pay a high fee for an investment entity ..they are expert in this sector...mining and resource..this is base on trust..if u are interested to join ,pls let me know....but the fee may turn you off...it is US$1200 per year..but it is very good info..

of course, if u are really as crazy like i do...no problem, with $1200, but i thk u simply buy the unit trust related to PM..this is good, u let expert do the sum for u...as u are not sure...

or u may join the forum at kitco. com...there the gold bug are helpful, but u still got to do DYODD...

gold and silver stock are riskier...buy only big cap..example Newmont..Goldcorp,..and a second liner i like is Yamana Gold..

buy later, i am sure a correction coming..gold will be 800

 

 

 

 



raceceres      ( Date: 16-May-2009 15:19) Posted:



Hi, if you don't mind, can you pls enlighten me more about the gold purchase, have been thinking about investing in it for a year but have no idea where to start from. Where can one find the stocks for gold, like mining companies?

Thanks 

 

 
raceceres
    16-May-2009 15:19  
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Hi, if you don't mind, can you pls enlighten me more about the gold purchase, have been thinking about investing in it for a year but have no idea where to start from. Where can one find the stocks for gold, like mining companies?

Thanks 
 
 
cheongwee
    16-May-2009 15:06  
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My personnael prediction is for gold to correct to 780 to 800 in sept...buy only in sept.DYODD
 
 
cheongwee
    16-May-2009 14:44  
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just for your info...DYODD

Gold Mania is Coming… Avoid the Stampede

When the dollar comes under serious pressure (as it certainly will) millions will turn to precious metals as a store of wealth.

 


“The average retail investor has little or no investment in gold and no understanding of how important it will be. The year 2009 will be volatile, but volatility is a small price to pay for where gold is headed. An explosion in gold and silver is inevitable in the years to come.”

John Embry
Chief Investment Strategist
Sprott Asset Management



When that time comes, the upward pressure on gold and silver and the companies that produce and explore for these metals will be astronomical.

The bull market has already entered the second phase. That is when sophisticated investors and institutions take their positions. But the valuations on mining and exploration companies are still EXTREMELY attractive.

The final stage of every major bull market is characterized by “mania.” This is especially true in gold (after all, there’s no rush like a gold rush!).

The day is coming when the general public, like a slowly boiling frog, will finally realize that everything they have based their financial future upon (namely the dollar and fiat currencies) is crumbling around them.

Currently less than 1% of the public believes they should own gold. What will happen when 5% or 10% of the population decides to put 10% of their assets into gold?

I can tell you what will happen…

People will go looking for lifeboats and there will be none to be had. Supplies of gold will be extremely tight and the prices will skyrocket. Investors worldwide will bid gold to prices that are unimaginable.

Do not be caught unprepared. Protect your family and your wealth today.

Fortunes will be made by those who believed when others were frozen by disbelief. The gold bull market is real. What we have seen is just the beginning.

 

So how high could gold climb?
  • Bloomberg has reported that “Gold may reach $2,000 an ounce by 2010.”
  • A Barron’s article speculated that the price could hit “$8,000 an ounce.”


The last major bull market took gold from $35 in 1970 to $850 an ounce – a rise of 2,329%. If gold follows a similar trajectory in this bull market, it would rise from a low of $252 in 1999 to more than $6,125 an ounce.

But even this scenario could be conservative when you consider the TRILLIONS of freshly printed dollars that will be chasing the tiny gold market in the coming years.

And it might not take “years” to get there. Consider this ominous statistic:…
  • The U.S. “domestic monetary base” consists of coins and paper money in circulation and in bank vaults, plus commercial bank deposits held by the Federal Reserve. In September of 2008, this figure was $262 billion. However, the Federal Reserve recently indicated that this number will swell to $3.8 trillion by September of this year!


That is a 15-fold increase in the domestic money supply in just one year!

But even that number pales compared to the $12.8 trillion that has been pledged, loaned or otherwise committed to bail out the banks and “stimulate” the economy. And it is not just the U.S. that is printing money like mad.



The current bull market in gold will be one for the ages. The clock is ticking on a gold-buying mania that will send prices into a blistering spike.

Thankfully, there is still time to prepare (and get positioned for astronomical profits!). Take a look at the previous bull market in gold and where our current bull market fits in.



From the low in 2001 (when the current bull market began) to the recent close of $880, gold is up about 240%. As you can see above, if history is any guide, the most explosive stage of the gold bull market is still ahead.

 

 
 
cheongwee
    14-May-2009 17:46  
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to all and niuyear...

Gold since 2003 have a similar trading pattern; it usually peaks in either the early part of the winter or spring of the year. A decline into the summer or fall then begins a new rally in the fall...

you can look at the charts available at kitco.com

now gold is looking good..we will monitor to see whether it can cross 930 convincingly,if not then we will see 780 to 800..

but i believe if hit , maybe overshoot to 940 the most, then corrected fr there...we will see..there are no sure thing , but with world stock soaring, i see gold will be dump for now till sept.

if it cross 950 then i will be bullish, but i dont thk so...gd luck,.

                     
Welcome to www.FreeSmileys.org
 
 
cheongwee
    13-May-2009 00:05  
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How abt laughter???like this one.

  

hope tomolo everyone will be like this...to the bank...
 

 
richtan
    12-May-2009 23:16  
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CW, dun worry, u are not lonely, I'm with you in the golden train, though at times I'm silent.

Anyway, "Silence is golden, is'nt it?" hahaha....



cheongwee      ( Date: 12-May-2009 19:06) Posted:



What happen? It seem like only always me , who is all vest in gold and silver?

Beware, someday u all be kicking your own ass for not buyng some.

But nw come the good news...gold is kicking up a storm, but it is a bull trap...take care...it will hit 920 to 935 the most and correct to 760 to 800...end sept..

there u got chance to get on the train cheap...end sept.

 
 
cheongwee
    12-May-2009 19:25  
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Aiyah,,,wrong again...should be 2008...all loss money...only gold make money..

cheongwee      ( Date: 12-May-2009 19:23) Posted:

I was saying all loss money,commodities, oil and stock and etc etc... only gold make money in 2009..

cheongwee      ( Date: 12-May-2009 19:21) Posted:



Yes, what u read may be true...but if u see chart,,,fr 2001 to 2009..gold  fr 250 to 900...gold is the only thing that make u money....all go under water..commodities, oil stock etc and etc..

going forward it is going to be very profitable...if u trust Robert Kiyosaki...just buy 10% will do u wonder..

those who bought gold 10% in 1970, even though they lost 90% of their investment in stock, they still end up 2.4 times richer...in 1980.

You Are About to Make a Bad Investment



Recs

7



Don't you invest in that just because you think it's a good idea. I'm warning you.

Across 10 asset classes, over a near-40-year time horizon, and in increments of three, five, and 10 years, there's one investment vehicle that made for a total loser -- a dud.

It's gold -- that so-called safe haven for your assets -- and if you're considering it today, let me explain why you need to bypass it and move on. Although gold may well be one of your favorite items in the vault, as a long-term investment, it is just plain lousy.

Bring on the hate mail
You needn't take my word for it -- Investor's Business Daily pulled the data from a study conducted by two Merrill Lynch strategists. And today, very few have the gumption to say that gold is simply not worth your time. Why?

Perhaps because, as IBD wrote, "in one recent five-year period -- the one ended Feb. 7 -- [gold funds] leave a different impression. Gold funds tracked by Lipper Inc. cranked out an average annual return of 25.45% vs. U.S. diversified stock funds' 12.60%."

You can bet your bottom dollar those returns have a lot to do with the metal's relatively recent surge in popularity. As usual, investors continue to chase performance and follow the herd. But proponents will tell you there are more reasons to believe that gold is a worthwhile spot for your money these days.

With all the chaos in the marketplace right now and the impending threat of economic doom, the investing herd is thinking, "Hey, gold is the perfect option to safeguard money from hyper-inflation and make a good return at the same time." And though I agree that gold funds and industry giants such as Goldcorp can get hot at times, four decades' worth of data demonstrate that gold is a riskier and lower-returning investment than pretty much any other.

Higher risk/lower reward
The two folks at Merrill hit the nail right on the head when they said, "Investors often lose sight of longer-term historical investment results, especially during short-term periods of extreme volatility and trending markets."

Bingo!

Short-term, return-chasing thinking is precisely what is driving otherwise crafty investors toward bad decision-making, and that is exactly why you should be looking elsewhere right now. Before I get to where exactly, it is important to understand just what the gold bulls are thinking.

Looking through the other side
Supporters of gold like to note that the past 40 years were an unprecedented period of growth in the American economy. We witnessed the rise of the quintessential American business -- names like Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV), Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), and other companies that revolutionized or invented their industries alongside booming growth in our domestic economy, the likes and returns of which we'll probably not experience again. And OK, this may be true.

Gold bulls go on to suggest that there is no reason to believe that the next 40 years of equity returns will look anything like the prior 40. Our economy is too big and too developed ... and that's probably true, too.

It's all about risk
According to Gold folk, we're entering an era of massive economic risk thanks to our miserable levels of national and personal debt. Sad to say, we now know this is true. Titans of our financial markets have dropped like a sack of potatoes in the past months, and now, even once-stodgy companies like Citibank (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) could face the guillotine if just few a things don't go right. Hey, don't forget about political risk from terrorism, a more competitive China, and the end of cheap fuel. Risk is everywhere, isn't it?

To that I say: Where did the risk ever go?

Wasn’t it difficult for Americans to buy shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) during the height of the Cold War and with the underlying threat of nuclear war? Yet investors who stuck with their guns on a stock as safe as Wal-Mart have since compounded an astounding 41.7% per year, compared to a measly 6.6% on gold since 1975.

With all the bear markets, through the oil crises, Black Monday, the implosion of the dot-coms, stagflation, and our current economic mess (pretty much all the economic risks you can think of), do you know which asset class failed to reward investors at rates comparable to all other asset types, while also exposing investors to a tremendous amount of volatility? Yup, our favorite precious metal: gold.

Goldfinger will not be pleased
I'm not bashing gold simply to bash. In fact, it isn't the worst idea to put a small slice of your portfolio in gold to diversify in case I'm wrong. But there's a better solution for the rest of your money: Go with the asset class that has consistently demonstrated the highest returns on investment with some of the lowest elements of risk -- small-cap stocks.

This isn't my own unproven theory -- the data comes from the same IBD study I mentioned before. Generally, equities trump just about every available investment alternative you have. But small caps in particular demonstrate significantly high returns with comparatively low risk. Plus, much of the negative information that we're hearing these days about our economy has already been priced into the markets or is getting priced in as we speak. Don't dwell on hindsight information -- look forward.

The truth will make you rich
To find the best of the small-cap world, you've got to think like a great small-cap stock. Remember: The giants of industry you know today once resembled the Netflixes (Nasdaq: NFLX) and the Blackboards (Nasdaq: BBBB) of the world we know now. And though our economy has matured, great companies will inevitably find their way to the top of the U.S. markets, displacing others if they have to.

That's because many of the world's best businesses -- like Netflix -- started small, with great ideas on top of cash-generating business models and entrepreneurial owners at the helm. And there are plenty more out there where those came from.

If you want to be on the side of returns that smash gold in the long run, then you must allocate toward these types of stocks.

Need some ideas? Consider our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap service, where our team's picks have beaten the market by 15 percentage points on average. Click here to get all of our research and recommendations free for 30 days.

This article was first published March 3, 2008. It has been updated.

Fool analyst Nick Kapur used to have a gold class ring, but sadly, he lost it. Starbucks and Netflix are Stock Advisor recommendations. Wal-Mart is an Inside Value recommendation. Blackboard is a Hidden Gems recommendation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


 
 
cheongwee
    12-May-2009 19:23  
Contact    Quote!
I was saying all loss money,commodities, oil and stock and etc etc... only gold make money in 2009..

cheongwee      ( Date: 12-May-2009 19:21) Posted:



Yes, what u read may be true...but if u see chart,,,fr 2001 to 2009..gold  fr 250 to 900...gold is the only thing that make u money....all go under water..commodities, oil stock etc and etc..

going forward it is going to be very profitable...if u trust Robert Kiyosaki...just buy 10% will do u wonder..

those who bought gold 10% in 1970, even though they lost 90% of their investment in stock, they still end up 2.4 times richer...in 1980.

You Are About to Make a Bad Investment



Recs

7



Don't you invest in that just because you think it's a good idea. I'm warning you.

Across 10 asset classes, over a near-40-year time horizon, and in increments of three, five, and 10 years, there's one investment vehicle that made for a total loser -- a dud.

It's gold -- that so-called safe haven for your assets -- and if you're considering it today, let me explain why you need to bypass it and move on. Although gold may well be one of your favorite items in the vault, as a long-term investment, it is just plain lousy.

Bring on the hate mail
You needn't take my word for it -- Investor's Business Daily pulled the data from a study conducted by two Merrill Lynch strategists. And today, very few have the gumption to say that gold is simply not worth your time. Why?

Perhaps because, as IBD wrote, "in one recent five-year period -- the one ended Feb. 7 -- [gold funds] leave a different impression. Gold funds tracked by Lipper Inc. cranked out an average annual return of 25.45% vs. U.S. diversified stock funds' 12.60%."

You can bet your bottom dollar those returns have a lot to do with the metal's relatively recent surge in popularity. As usual, investors continue to chase performance and follow the herd. But proponents will tell you there are more reasons to believe that gold is a worthwhile spot for your money these days.

With all the chaos in the marketplace right now and the impending threat of economic doom, the investing herd is thinking, "Hey, gold is the perfect option to safeguard money from hyper-inflation and make a good return at the same time." And though I agree that gold funds and industry giants such as Goldcorp can get hot at times, four decades' worth of data demonstrate that gold is a riskier and lower-returning investment than pretty much any other.

Higher risk/lower reward
The two folks at Merrill hit the nail right on the head when they said, "Investors often lose sight of longer-term historical investment results, especially during short-term periods of extreme volatility and trending markets."

Bingo!

Short-term, return-chasing thinking is precisely what is driving otherwise crafty investors toward bad decision-making, and that is exactly why you should be looking elsewhere right now. Before I get to where exactly, it is important to understand just what the gold bulls are thinking.

Looking through the other side
Supporters of gold like to note that the past 40 years were an unprecedented period of growth in the American economy. We witnessed the rise of the quintessential American business -- names like Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV), Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), and other companies that revolutionized or invented their industries alongside booming growth in our domestic economy, the likes and returns of which we'll probably not experience again. And OK, this may be true.

Gold bulls go on to suggest that there is no reason to believe that the next 40 years of equity returns will look anything like the prior 40. Our economy is too big and too developed ... and that's probably true, too.

It's all about risk
According to Gold folk, we're entering an era of massive economic risk thanks to our miserable levels of national and personal debt. Sad to say, we now know this is true. Titans of our financial markets have dropped like a sack of potatoes in the past months, and now, even once-stodgy companies like Citibank (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) could face the guillotine if just few a things don't go right. Hey, don't forget about political risk from terrorism, a more competitive China, and the end of cheap fuel. Risk is everywhere, isn't it?

To that I say: Where did the risk ever go?

Wasn’t it difficult for Americans to buy shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) during the height of the Cold War and with the underlying threat of nuclear war? Yet investors who stuck with their guns on a stock as safe as Wal-Mart have since compounded an astounding 41.7% per year, compared to a measly 6.6% on gold since 1975.

With all the bear markets, through the oil crises, Black Monday, the implosion of the dot-coms, stagflation, and our current economic mess (pretty much all the economic risks you can think of), do you know which asset class failed to reward investors at rates comparable to all other asset types, while also exposing investors to a tremendous amount of volatility? Yup, our favorite precious metal: gold.

Goldfinger will not be pleased
I'm not bashing gold simply to bash. In fact, it isn't the worst idea to put a small slice of your portfolio in gold to diversify in case I'm wrong. But there's a better solution for the rest of your money: Go with the asset class that has consistently demonstrated the highest returns on investment with some of the lowest elements of risk -- small-cap stocks.

This isn't my own unproven theory -- the data comes from the same IBD study I mentioned before. Generally, equities trump just about every available investment alternative you have. But small caps in particular demonstrate significantly high returns with comparatively low risk. Plus, much of the negative information that we're hearing these days about our economy has already been priced into the markets or is getting priced in as we speak. Don't dwell on hindsight information -- look forward.

The truth will make you rich
To find the best of the small-cap world, you've got to think like a great small-cap stock. Remember: The giants of industry you know today once resembled the Netflixes (Nasdaq: NFLX) and the Blackboards (Nasdaq: BBBB) of the world we know now. And though our economy has matured, great companies will inevitably find their way to the top of the U.S. markets, displacing others if they have to.

That's because many of the world's best businesses -- like Netflix -- started small, with great ideas on top of cash-generating business models and entrepreneurial owners at the helm. And there are plenty more out there where those came from.

If you want to be on the side of returns that smash gold in the long run, then you must allocate toward these types of stocks.

Need some ideas? Consider our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap service, where our team's picks have beaten the market by 15 percentage points on average. Click here to get all of our research and recommendations free for 30 days.

This article was first published March 3, 2008. It has been updated.

Fool analyst Nick Kapur used to have a gold class ring, but sadly, he lost it. Starbucks and Netflix are Stock Advisor recommendations. Wal-Mart is an Inside Value recommendation. Blackboard is a Hidden Gems recommendation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

 
 
cheongwee
    12-May-2009 19:21  
Contact    Quote!


Yes, what u read may be true...but if u see chart,,,fr 2001 to 2009..gold  fr 250 to 900...gold is the only thing that make u money....all go under water..commodities, oil stock etc and etc..

going forward it is going to be very profitable...if u trust Robert Kiyosaki...just buy 10% will do u wonder..

those who bought gold 10% in 1970, even though they lost 90% of their investment in stock, they still end up 2.4 times richer...in 1980.

You Are About to Make a Bad Investment



Recs

7



Don't you invest in that just because you think it's a good idea. I'm warning you.

Across 10 asset classes, over a near-40-year time horizon, and in increments of three, five, and 10 years, there's one investment vehicle that made for a total loser -- a dud.

It's gold -- that so-called safe haven for your assets -- and if you're considering it today, let me explain why you need to bypass it and move on. Although gold may well be one of your favorite items in the vault, as a long-term investment, it is just plain lousy.

Bring on the hate mail
You needn't take my word for it -- Investor's Business Daily pulled the data from a study conducted by two Merrill Lynch strategists. And today, very few have the gumption to say that gold is simply not worth your time. Why?

Perhaps because, as IBD wrote, "in one recent five-year period -- the one ended Feb. 7 -- [gold funds] leave a different impression. Gold funds tracked by Lipper Inc. cranked out an average annual return of 25.45% vs. U.S. diversified stock funds' 12.60%."

You can bet your bottom dollar those returns have a lot to do with the metal's relatively recent surge in popularity. As usual, investors continue to chase performance and follow the herd. But proponents will tell you there are more reasons to believe that gold is a worthwhile spot for your money these days.

With all the chaos in the marketplace right now and the impending threat of economic doom, the investing herd is thinking, "Hey, gold is the perfect option to safeguard money from hyper-inflation and make a good return at the same time." And though I agree that gold funds and industry giants such as Goldcorp can get hot at times, four decades' worth of data demonstrate that gold is a riskier and lower-returning investment than pretty much any other.

Higher risk/lower reward
The two folks at Merrill hit the nail right on the head when they said, "Investors often lose sight of longer-term historical investment results, especially during short-term periods of extreme volatility and trending markets."

Bingo!

Short-term, return-chasing thinking is precisely what is driving otherwise crafty investors toward bad decision-making, and that is exactly why you should be looking elsewhere right now. Before I get to where exactly, it is important to understand just what the gold bulls are thinking.

Looking through the other side
Supporters of gold like to note that the past 40 years were an unprecedented period of growth in the American economy. We witnessed the rise of the quintessential American business -- names like Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV), Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), and other companies that revolutionized or invented their industries alongside booming growth in our domestic economy, the likes and returns of which we'll probably not experience again. And OK, this may be true.

Gold bulls go on to suggest that there is no reason to believe that the next 40 years of equity returns will look anything like the prior 40. Our economy is too big and too developed ... and that's probably true, too.

It's all about risk
According to Gold folk, we're entering an era of massive economic risk thanks to our miserable levels of national and personal debt. Sad to say, we now know this is true. Titans of our financial markets have dropped like a sack of potatoes in the past months, and now, even once-stodgy companies like Citibank (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) could face the guillotine if just few a things don't go right. Hey, don't forget about political risk from terrorism, a more competitive China, and the end of cheap fuel. Risk is everywhere, isn't it?

To that I say: Where did the risk ever go?

Wasn’t it difficult for Americans to buy shares of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) during the height of the Cold War and with the underlying threat of nuclear war? Yet investors who stuck with their guns on a stock as safe as Wal-Mart have since compounded an astounding 41.7% per year, compared to a measly 6.6% on gold since 1975.

With all the bear markets, through the oil crises, Black Monday, the implosion of the dot-coms, stagflation, and our current economic mess (pretty much all the economic risks you can think of), do you know which asset class failed to reward investors at rates comparable to all other asset types, while also exposing investors to a tremendous amount of volatility? Yup, our favorite precious metal: gold.

Goldfinger will not be pleased
I'm not bashing gold simply to bash. In fact, it isn't the worst idea to put a small slice of your portfolio in gold to diversify in case I'm wrong. But there's a better solution for the rest of your money: Go with the asset class that has consistently demonstrated the highest returns on investment with some of the lowest elements of risk -- small-cap stocks.

This isn't my own unproven theory -- the data comes from the same IBD study I mentioned before. Generally, equities trump just about every available investment alternative you have. But small caps in particular demonstrate significantly high returns with comparatively low risk. Plus, much of the negative information that we're hearing these days about our economy has already been priced into the markets or is getting priced in as we speak. Don't dwell on hindsight information -- look forward.

The truth will make you rich
To find the best of the small-cap world, you've got to think like a great small-cap stock. Remember: The giants of industry you know today once resembled the Netflixes (Nasdaq: NFLX) and the Blackboards (Nasdaq: BBBB) of the world we know now. And though our economy has matured, great companies will inevitably find their way to the top of the U.S. markets, displacing others if they have to.

That's because many of the world's best businesses -- like Netflix -- started small, with great ideas on top of cash-generating business models and entrepreneurial owners at the helm. And there are plenty more out there where those came from.

If you want to be on the side of returns that smash gold in the long run, then you must allocate toward these types of stocks.

Need some ideas? Consider our Motley Fool Hidden Gems small-cap service, where our team's picks have beaten the market by 15 percentage points on average. Click here to get all of our research and recommendations free for 30 days.

This article was first published March 3, 2008. It has been updated.

Fool analyst Nick Kapur used to have a gold class ring, but sadly, he lost it. Starbucks and Netflix are Stock Advisor recommendations. Wal-Mart is an Inside Value recommendation. Blackboard is a Hidden Gems recommendation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
 
 
cheongwee
    12-May-2009 19:06  
Contact    Quote!


What happen? It seem like only always me , who is all vest in gold and silver?

Beware, someday u all be kicking your own ass for not buyng some.

But nw come the good news...gold is kicking up a storm, but it is a bull trap...take care...it will hit 920 to 935 the most and correct to 760 to 800...end sept..

there u got chance to get on the train cheap...end sept.
 
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