Sakari   

Straits Asia

wonder will it hit $3 by end of the year 2010??

enghou      ( Date: 23-Nov-2010 18:57) Posted: Straits Asia - Upgrade To Outperform Better Risk Reward  We upgrade SAR to OUTPERFORM from Neutral, with potential upside higher to peers if the Northern Lease is granted within the next three months. We see SAR giving high risk, high return exposure to the sector. In our best case, we see SAR rerated to S$3.5 based on 18x P/E in FY11E. ● Our earnings forecast assumes that the permit is granted in the next few months and production at SBK mine could improve from 1mnt to 2 mnt YoY in 2011. We cut our earnings forecast by 2% for FY11, a small cut relative to peers, as our original forecast had taken into account slow startup of the project. ● Catalysts to the share price are rising spot coal prices and the issuance of borrow-use permit by the Forestry Ministry for the Northern Lease. ● If there is no output from SBK mine in 2011, we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR’s P/E would be at 18.7x. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011.  Target price of S$3.1 assuming 70% of Northern Lease start in FY11 At the current share price, SAR trades at a discount to P/E of its peers of between 13x-15x. Assuming that the permit is delayed by one year (which is unlikely), we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR would be valued at a P/E of 18.7x at the current share price. However, if the permit is received, we see SAR to be potentially rerated up to S$3.5 assuming that SAR then is rerated along with its peers to our target P/E of 18x in 2011. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E, assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011. Source: Credit Suisse Make love more, don't make more enemies

 

PTT International (through PTT Mining) currently holds an indirect stake of 27.36% in Straits Asia Resources (SAR).

It is now buying the indirect stake of 18.24% from Straits Resources Ltd, making itself (PTT International) the ultimate shareholder of 45.6% in Straits Asia Resources (SAR).

Does PTT International (or PTT Mining) 's recent purchase of the additional 18.24% stake trigger Singapore's takeover codes which required it to make a general offer to acquire all SAR shares which it does not already own?  Since it purchases the 18.24% stake at a price of $2.79 per share, does it mean its General Offer price has to be not less than $2.79?

Any expert here who is able to share his or her views?

I noticed daily volumes of SAR shares had been high.  Could it because of an anticipated increase in coal price or some people are expecting a General Offer from PTT International?

 

if war outbreak.... what is the outcome ?

enghou      ( Date: 23-Nov-2010 18:57) Posted: Straits Asia - Upgrade To Outperform Better Risk Reward  We upgrade SAR to OUTPERFORM from Neutral, with potential upside higher to peers if the Northern Lease is granted within the next three months. We see SAR giving high risk, high return exposure to the sector. In our best case, we see SAR rerated to S$3.5 based on 18x P/E in FY11E. ● Our earnings forecast assumes that the permit is granted in the next few months and production at SBK mine could improve from 1mnt to 2 mnt YoY in 2011. We cut our earnings forecast by 2% for FY11, a small cut relative to peers, as our original forecast had taken into account slow startup of the project. ● Catalysts to the share price are rising spot coal prices and the issuance of borrow-use permit by the Forestry Ministry for the Northern Lease. ● If there is no output from SBK mine in 2011, we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR’s P/E would be at 18.7x. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011.  Target price of S$3.1 assuming 70% of Northern Lease start in FY11 At the current share price, SAR trades at a discount to P/E of its peers of between 13x-15x. Assuming that the permit is delayed by one year (which is unlikely), we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR would be valued at a P/E of 18.7x at the current share price. However, if the permit is received, we see SAR to be potentially rerated up to S$3.5 assuming that SAR then is rerated along with its peers to our target P/E of 18x in 2011. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E, assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011. Source: Credit Suisse Make love more, don't make more enemies

 

Straits Asia - Upgrade To Outperform

Better Risk Reward

 We upgrade SAR to OUTPERFORM from Neutral, with potential

upside higher to peers if the Northern Lease is granted within the

next three months. We see SAR giving high risk, high return

exposure to the sector. In our best case, we see SAR rerated to

S$3.5 based on 18x P/E in FY11E.

● Our earnings forecast assumes that the permit is granted in the

next few months and production at SBK mine could improve from

1mnt to 2 mnt YoY in 2011. We cut our earnings forecast by 2%

for FY11, a small cut relative to peers, as our original forecast had

taken into account slow startup of the project.

● Catalysts to the share price are rising spot coal prices and the

issuance of borrow-use permit by the Forestry Ministry for the

Northern Lease.

● If there is no output from SBK mine in 2011, we see 32%

downside to our earnings forecast, and SAR’s P/E would be at

18.7x. Our target price of S$3.1 is set based on 18x P/E assuming

a 70% chance that the Northern Lease mine would start in 2011.

 Target price of S$3.1 assuming 70% of Northern Lease start

in FY11

At the current share price, SAR trades at a discount to P/E of its peers

of between 13x-15x. Assuming that the permit is delayed by one year

(which is unlikely), we see 32% downside to our earnings forecast,

and SAR would be valued at a P/E of 18.7x at the current share price.

However, if the permit is received, we see SAR to be potentially

rerated up to S$3.5 assuming that SAR then is rerated along with its

peers to our target P/E of 18x in 2011. Our target price of S$3.1 is set

based on 18x P/E, assuming a 70% chance that the Northern Lease

mine would start in 2011.

Source: Credit Suisse

Make love more, don't make more enemies 

 

Straits Asia Resources (SAR SP; S$2.53)
Straits Asia Resources rallied as much as 4.5% on Friday following a surge in commodity prices and recent M&A activity in Indonesia 's coal sector.
By lunch, shares were up 11cts at S$2.53 with over 6m share changing hands.
Oil prices closed 2% higher on Thursday in the US , breaking a 4-day down streak on the back of Ireland’s bailout plan which gave confidence to global investors.
In addition, the recent merger of Indonesia coal firms Berau Coal, PT Bumi Resources along with Vallar Plc, generated greater investor interest in the region’s coal industry and respective companies.
Maintain Underperform with a TP of S$2.01.

 

 

 

can i ask.. when is a good price to enter, stop loss and take profit

 

Hi , thanks for the update :-)

kyjnjn      ( Date: 11-Nov-2010 13:29) Posted: Divestment of SARs by Aussie parent to PTT valuing SARs @ 2.79 and funds seem to know this news  in advance resulting in price increased in the past few days. You should be able to sell at a profit soon. All the best. watermelon      ( Date: 27-Oct-2010 14:05) Posted: me bought high at 2.69, will it go higher or at least break even for me ? :-(

 

Divestment of SARs by Aussie parent to PTT valuing SARs @ 2.79 and funds seem to know this news  in advance resulting in price increased in the past few days. You should be able to sell at a profit soon. All the best.

watermelon      ( Date: 27-Oct-2010 14:05) Posted: me bought high at 2.69, will it go higher or at least break even for me ? :-(

 

 

 

me bought high at 2.69, will it go higher or at least break even for me ? :-(

 

Why? What's the news?

 

BUY --- STRAIT ASIA --- BUY


BOSAYOR

 

Base on the chart pattern and historical PE, Straits Asia Resources still have much upside potential.
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/straits-asia/straits-asia-resources-sar-climbing-on-up-trend-steadily/

 

 

commodities went berserk today. I just wonder if there is room for more rally tommorw? StraitsAsia is looking good for now.

http://sgsharemarket.com/home/2010/10/straitsasia-testing-resistance/

 

I wonder why when commodity prices are up. Poor quarterly results?

 

this counter drop alot for the past few days.. is it trying to cover the gap at 2.23? is it a good time to enter now?

 

amazing recovery from $2.17....when it drop from $2.36 to $2.17 when we move our call to "NEUTRAL" at $2.33 plus ....now at $2.41...still a good counter though our call is "NEURTAL" for this counter....good luck :)

victorf      ( Date: 15-Sep-2010 14:23) Posted:

 

Why nobody talk about this share? Can anybody share, with this break, what is the target? Thank you.

 

As predicted, Straits Asia went on an uptrend following up a good support above 2.18. Hope you have covered your shorts.

It has moved further away from 2.26 which is the price of the higher uptrend. But end of session data feeds today will be able to tell more clearer picture if can still go in or not. Anyway, I don't buy SA because of need to have a lot of capital (CFD) to buy the stocks as margin is around 25%.

Thanks,
Star-Trader

alexchia01      ( Date: 29-Sep-2010 20:47) Posted: Yes, Star-Trader. I totally agree with you. This is the reason why I didn't recommend others to short Straits Asia today. $2.18 is a key level to watch. star-trader      ( Date: 29-Sep-2010 20:27) Posted: I am not sure about the potential of Straits Asia, but from the chart, if it can sustain above 2.18, ( notice on 13 Sept 2010, where distribution started or off-load of selling pressure till the peak point at 2.37 which can determine the price movement.. Layman term, if the buying support is shown above 2.18 in the next few days, you better cover the position. If it continue to fall below 2.18, it will be safe bet to hold on further to your short position but of course we will need to cross-check again the volumes and the candlesticks at that point of time. Star-Trader

 

Thank you very much, appreciate your explanation.

I have held the shares since April '09; not sure whether I should continue holding till it reaches its previous high which may take years. In your opinion this may not be a good idea, as coal will gradually be replaced by greener alternatives? I may have to reassess my investment in the company.

alexchia01      ( Date: 29-Sep-2010 20:13) Posted: Straits Asia is an Okay company. The main reason why I choose this counter to short is its Business. Straits Asia Business is Coal Mining, they mine and provide Coal to Power Generators in Indonesia. Because Coal Mining is dangerous and Coal Burning pollutes the environment, Coal Burning Power Generators are slowly replaced by alternative power source. As time goes by, the demand for Coal would decrease. However this is a long process, so in the short-term, there is no much effect on their Business. Long-term wise, their business would decrease gradually. Unless they change their business model, long-term investors should avoid this counter. As a short-term traders, I would play on this weakness and go short. Just my personal opinion. Don't have to take it too seriously. Good luck. kyjnjn      ( Date: 29-Sep-2010 18:13) Posted: Is this not a good share? Over valued? I am vested