CapitaLand   

Sentosa IR

Tender closes on Oct 10, but results will only be known 1-2 mths later.



UBS has a price target of $5 based on 30x PE. DBSV has a target price of $5.05 based on 20% premium to RNAV estimate of $4.21.

 

Capland fell on concerns that a 20% tax on the sale of 2nd-hand homes in China will hit its bottom line. The firm derives 42% of its profits from China. 90% of residential sales have been to locals.



Its management has however stressed that its interests in China are well spread out:
- Retail: 36.9% of total assets in China
- Residential: 32.2%
- Commercial: 16.1%
- Serviced Residence: 14.8%

 

My view is to vest it if it hit its 2-month record low at 3.8, then sure gt chance to heading north during october period pending more news..;)

just my 2cents worth

 

I think capitaland's trend is probably going south some more for another 2 weeks or so. 60% chance of doing so, if I were to hazard a guess.

:)

 

It seems that the results/winner will only be known in October.....

 

Renowned American architect Frank Gehry came out of retirement at age 80 to put his name into Sentosa IR with Kerzner/CapLand against Genting/Universal. Another point to note: It seems that Universal spurned S'pore "6" times inviting them to set up here.

Now, which horse to bet?

 

Like Kepland, Capland will also be affected by property curbs in China. China retail and residential will be increasingly exposed to regulatory risks over the next 6-12 months.



The prohibition of foreigners buying into residential homes is likely to be punishing to the mid-to-high-end segments, which is where Capland has presence in. It has 35% of 06CL Ebit (40% of 07CL) exposed to China residential, of which at least 85% is attributable to Shanghahi and Beijing.



A sooner-than-expected launch of its upcoming Chengdu JV projects, which cater to the mass market, would help cushion any impact the regulatory measures may have on the mid-to-high-end. Fee income from reits may emerge as strength for the company in the longe term, but near-term, fee income is still a small component of Capland's earnings.



CLSA has a price target of $4.35.

 

may be the chances of  IR Sentosa not as promising as before.Star Cruise is very close behind.

 

wah lau!

Fall like meteor today! si mi tai chi??!

 

The number of contenders for the Sentosa IR would be confirmed by the end of July 2006 .  No point trying to guess the likely winner until the contenders are known.     

 

Tender closing is only 3 months away ... the anticipation should start to rise around that time. 

 

Abdullah factor.

 

Hi scotty,

The tender closes on Oct 10.

 

thats a good point. however, genting can come out with a different concept from the Marina one.

 

Sorry miss out some words.

That is NOT a good strategy to let Genting got it.

 

That good stratgy to let Genting got it. No point having same old idea as Genting, pretty boring. Look at Star Cruise, same boring ideas except on a small scale. Price-wise, Genting Highland on top of the hill is cheaper. So Spore more likely should go for something very different from Genting in order to attract the Asian (especially Asean, China, India). Cannot depend only local people, not enough to substain the business.

 

Genting will get Sentosa IR...

 

When's the tender closing for this? I think 2 months before the tender close, can buy Capitaland. I think the price action will be a repeat of the time of the first IR bid at Marina.