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Sep11 when the US market tanked, STI hit low of 1200. ASEAN crisis in 98, STI hit low of 800. ASEAN crisis more direct impact on STI since the KLSE, SET, PSE and IDX all tanked. Plus hitting 800 was due to the CLOB saga. When Malaysia closed the door on CLOB, this tore a piece out of the STI.
Today if the problem is contained in the US market then I think the STI will have hit bottom around 1600 or at worse 1200. Whether or not it goes to a new low will depend on how badly the US recession will hit the ASEAN markets and its repercussion on STI. Some doomsday scenario would be what if a large Malaysia bank goes under? Or what if the Sands saga becomes our "Credit Default" crisis?
y not? the last low in 98 should be tested this round!
novena_33 ( Date: 13-Nov-2008 08:39) Posted:
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bro is there any typo error 800.... i think for now...1200 will shake many ppl leg....
sti will test 800 again for last low acheive during the asian financial crisis.
when this time come, i will buy uob at $3.5, dbs at $3 and kepcorp at $1.5!
For those of us, who already bought in at current px..we should be safe if u intend to long, cos u are buying at one of the low..
So as also we are not very sure when is bottom, so may buy more if marklet go lower,,if u got the $ that can afford to remain in the market..i believe 3 years off or 4 yrs later u will see multi fold return..
That is one thing we are sure at current time...market is at one of the low,,and stock are way below NAV..good for value investing to long..
I am looking at commodities and oil relate...still believe these 2 to soar...t
I think a rally maybe on the way...normally Nov to Jan ...market are generally up..
Makret will really turn onli when dollar come down and hosuing data improve...dollar down means selling mostly done in stock..and housing may take another 2 year before it turn .
But in bear there are rally also..read.
http://www.addictedtoprofits.net/platmembers/EmailAlert342008.pdf
Hope rally on the way for us to make some $..
how abt taking a break until markets stabilise, it mayb months or a year or 18 mths.
Really, nowadays a lot of rumors, no explicit ref, dun know where to head for?
Rumour 2 big hedge fund to collapse..soon...STI can go to 1200....and it look like ppl is still selling out emerging market and the process of rewinding and deleveraging in still strong..just look at the $ u know..
Hope not...but situation look like serious..good luck...
"No way. Not to worry."............very reassuring words in tis global economic situation, thks.
No way. Not to worry. Singaporean can't let it to happen and can't afford to have it too.
lookcc ( Date: 11-Nov-2008 22:15) Posted:
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agree that the market will not go down every day in a bear bear market. Trade willl care. i have no balls to trade till a almost bottom occurs.... let the market prove if it will reach 1200 or lower... no point arguing guys. Good luck
elfinchilde ( Date: 12-Nov-2008 14:49) Posted:
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Possible but hope not. If not alot trader will go crazy, big up , big down, big up. cause alot of stress for people. Mixed signal now for most short term investor. dunno whether to go in or get out.
But long term investor will be accumulate this year, accumulate next year, accumulate next next year on good counters (DCA). Sell when the real bull come. Hee Hee
nickyng ( Date: 12-Nov-2008 16:52) Posted:
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EU now mix, no serious movement yet. Hope DJ tonite up lift
a bit to boost market confidence.
lookcc ( Date: 12-Nov-2008 17:47) Posted:
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1800 cud not hold 2day.
Merely consolidation.
Would be interesting to see if STI can close at 1801 today.
Anyway try not to hold too many overnight positions (BOTH bulls/bears).
hmm...this the so-called CALMNESS b4 a BIG PERFECT STORM coming.... :D
bola_no1 ( Date: 12-Nov-2008 16:35) Posted:
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Mkt movement seems minimal. Consolidating and stablising sign?
ya know, instead of speculating and scaring yourselves ("the sky is falling! the sky is falling!"), why not just follow the trend instead.
currently sti is on consolidation mode. range between 1,700 to 2,000, with 1,900 being the resistance thus far. If it does break down, you have resistances at 1,671, then 1,500 (actually it's 1478 or so), and 1,350, before 1,200 can be hit.
Now, logically, when can such things happen? Only if major news occurs.
ie, news on the scale of the sept 11 terrorist attacks. because the only thing that'll drive asia down is the US. and since 7,900 is a very strong DJIA support (equivalent STI 1,500), it means STI can fall to 1,200 only in the event of major US bad news, that drives the DJIA down to 4,000. IF 7900 can be broken.
So while of course, one can't rule out that possibility, one should also note that it is of low probability.
rather than worrying, save energy and focus on the charts. lots of money to be made if you look clearly.
cheers.
A year ago, who would have thought that STI today would drop below 1800?
So, is 1,200 coming ? ..... anyone's guess....
lookcc ( Date: 11-Nov-2008 22:15) Posted:
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